Trade Balance Research Articles

Decoupling with(out) outsourcing? Quantifying emissions embodied in BRI trade with implications for climate policy

We empirically examine the trade-related environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) using a novel technology-adjusted consumption-based accounting in addition to traditional accounting schemes and data from the Eora Global database from 1995 to 2015. We find that BRI trade accounted for 3-quarters (5.01 Gt) of global traded emissions in 2015. BRI countries account for 60%–75% of (non-BRI) developed-world consumption-based emissions. While developing (BRI) countries import 8%–42% of their consumption needs from China, they account for half of the China’s imported emissions. Our analysis reveals that technological adjustments in export sectors significantly alter the magnitude of outsourcing and emission responsibility assigned to both BRI and non-BRI countries. This leads to a notable shift in net trade balance emissions. We find that developed (BRI and non-BRI) countries have reduced emissions primarily through decoupling and outsourcing. Our findings demonstrate that BRI trade has diverse environmental effects; exports from more carbon-efficient (BRI and non-BRI) developed countries are likely to reduce (or avoid) emissions in developing (BRI) countries and vice versa. An important implication of these findings is that China’s BRI-led outsourcing and investments have the potential to yield significant environmental benefits by accelerating the transition to renewable energy in developing countries participating in the initiative.

Economic Development Pattern and Trade Imbalance: Comparing the U.S. with East Asia

With the development of trade globalization, East Asian countries have occupied an important position in global trade. The rise of the East Asian economy has led to a long-term trade deficit between the United States and East Asian countries, causing economic imbalance. Focusing on the economic development patterns of the United States and East Asian countries, this paper proposes a research question: How does the difference in economic development between the U.S. and East Asian countries lead to trade imbalance? This article uses comparative advantage and absolute advantage theory, Keynesian political economy, global savings glut hypothesis and the flying-geese model to provide theoretical support for the research, and then uses data from the World Bank and Bureau of Economic Analysis to further demonstrate. The last part of this paper makes an empirical analysis through case analysis and model tests. This study argues that differences in economic development lead to an international division of labor and a savings-investment gap, which in turn lead to trade imbalances.

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Flows in India

This paper examines the role of exchange rate changes on India’s trade. The drivers of exports and imports (income, exchange rate including sectoral differences, and exchange rate variability) are estimated for the short and long run including a structural break. Using annual data from 1994 to 2022, the results of dynamic fixed effects estimation show that both exports and imports are income-elastic in the short and long run, but income elasticity is far stronger for exports. Moreover, exports are responsive to the real effective exchange rate in the short run but not in the long run, and the reverse is true for imports. Furthermore, exchange rates have asymmetric effects for high-volume and primary sectors for exports and imports. The combined impacts show the ineffectiveness of using currency depreciation to address trade imbalances.

Sources of Carotenoids in Amazonian Fruits.

Epidemiological studies have shown that a diet rich in bioactive components significantly reduces cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality. In this sense, there is a need for meta-analytical research that confirms this phenomenon and increases specific knowledge about certain bioactive compounds such as carotenoids. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis aim to disseminate knowledge about the sources of carotenoids in fruit consumed in the north of Brazil which are outside the Brazilian trade balance. A systematic review and a meta-analysis following the PRISMA guidelines were conducted based on a random effects synthesis of multivariable-adjusted relative risks (RRs). Searches of seven sources were carried out, including PubMed, Science Direct from Elsevier, Web of Science, Scielo, Eric Research and Google Scholar databases. The systematic review was guided by a systematic review protocol based on the POT strategy (population, outcome and type of study) adapted for use in this research. Mendeley was a resource used to organize and manage references and exclude duplicates of studies selected for review. In this review, we present the potential bioactive compounds concentrated in little-known fruit species from the Amazon and their benefits. Consuming fruits that are rich in notable constituents such as carotenoids is important for the prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases through anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant properties, as well as antivirals, immunomodulators and antioxidants agents that directly affect the immune response.

Tele-connecting regional carbon inequality in China to global consumers

Global trade may lead to unequal distribution of CO2 emissions and economic benefits among countries. While regional carbon inequality within a country driven by specific foreign consumers is rarely discussed. Taking China as an example, this study constructed a nested MRIO table to trace the CO2 emissions & value-added flows between each province of China (30 in total) and 18 other countries/regions, and measured the provincial carbon inequality based on emission terms of trade (ETT), emission-value (EV), carbon-Gini coefficient indicators triggered by these global consumers. Here we show that most provinces are net emission exporters and almost half of China's provinces suffered both environmental and economic losses in international trade. What is worse, it triggered severe regional imbalance of emissions and economic gains within China. The less developed western provinces with high emission intensity are always at a disadvantage in international trade, but some eastern provinces are on the favorable side. The consumption of the EU caused the most severe carbon inequality among provinces. These findings provide further information to relieve trade-induced carbon inequality at a refined scale and give inspiration to build more equitable trading mechanisms globally.

Econometric Analysis of the influence of market capitalization on economic growth in Morocco

This paper presents an economic analysis of the influence of market capitalization on economic growth in Morocco. Indeed, we are trying to diagnose the effect of market capitalization on GDP, on national consumption of households, on the exchange rate, on the unemployment rate, and on the deficit of the trade balance. The evidence shows that market capitalization at Morocco does not influence national household consumption, nor gross domestic product. This econometric result is also confirmed in the long term. However, no causal relationship is found in between gross domestic product does and stock market capitalization in short and long run. at the level of national household consumption, the absence of any kind of causality with market capitalization, As for the relationship of GDP with market capitalization, the absence of any kind of short and long term relationship

Tea Trade Scenario in the Pre and Post Liberalization Period in India

Indian tea, which has maintained its supremacy both in production and export for more than a century, has started to lose its pre-eminence. Other tea producing countries like China, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Kenya are strongly competing for Market share. The increase in production in China has pushed India to second position in production and the country lost its domination of the export market to Kenya, China and Sri Lanka. Given this backdrop, the present study attempts to analyse the export growth, instability in export earnings, export quantity and unit value and concentration of export destinations evaluate India’s tea export performance. The growth of export quantity, value and unit value from India (1988-2022) was worked out using compound growth rate and the results indicated an increased growth in the post–WTO period which could be attributed to the expansion in trade to the Near East, with their growth and strength of the economies in the region (Hicks, 2009). Instability in export can affect the economic growth of the country as it has adverse effect on the countries export earnings, trade balance, and confidence of international trading partners. The export instability calculated using Coppock’s instability index showed an increasing trend in the post-WTO period. In 1990’s about 6 countries viz., U.S.S.R, U.K, Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Poland accounted for about 90 per cent of total tea exports from India. But over a period of time the demand in these countries weakened. The Indian exports continue to lose volume in countries like Russia Europe, USA and some middle east countries (Dutt, 2007). The share in Iraq, Netherland and Poland was maintained and it improved in UAE, Germany, Pakistan and china. Overall in the past 3 decades, India’s world ranking as an exporter has dropped to fourthowing to competition from China, Kenya and Sri Lanka. (Majumder et al., 2010). The reduction in values of the Hirschmann index indicated increased geographic diversification of tea exports thereby reducing the possibility of market risk due to dependence on few markets. The commodity diversification in the form of various tea products exported is very limited, the major share of exports being in the form of black tea especially in bulk form. Received: 1 February 2024 / Accepted: 29 April 2024 / Published: 5 May 2024

Identifying East Java Trade Interest Through Paradiplomacy Initiatives - Analysis on Actors, Processes and Goals of Diplomacy

This research explores the paradiplomacy activities of the East Java Government's Department of Industry and Trade in improving international trade relations. Through initiatives such as business matching, trade fairs, and foreign trade missions, the government collaborates with trade attachés, ITPCs, and foreign trade representatives to promote Indonesian exports and attract foreign investment. By achieving strong trade performance, East Java has succeeded in attracting investment, increasing export value, and actively contributing to Indonesia's international trade. This study emphasizes the important role of local governments in advancing international trade for regional development and national interests. Through programs such as business matching, foreign trade missions, international exhibitions and market brief webinars. The East Java government uses paradiplomacy to strengthen international trade relations. This research underlines the role of subnational actors in increasing economic growth and Indonesia's foreign trade balance.

Research on China’s Environmental Law and Low-carbon Emission Economy Trade Surplus under the Background of Carbon Neutrality

The significant presence of high-carbon industries in China’s export trade and the substantial trade surplus in recent years are key factors contributing to the increase in China’s carbon emissions. China’s current export trade model does not align with the requirements of low-carbon economic development. Considering China’s future emission reduction goals and responsibilities, we should aim to achieve a low-carbon trade transformation, establish a trading method that is compatible with developing a low-carbon economy, and actively promote the development of a low-carbon economy. Based on this premise, the paper utilizes the input-output model and low-carbon trade competitiveness indicators to empirically analyze China’s foreign trade implied carbon emissions and low-carbon trade competitiveness. It also investigates China’s foreign trade surplus.

Currency Devaluation and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study examined currency devaluation and economic growth in Nigeria. Specifically, the study economic growth, balance and external debt on currency devaluation in Nigeria and tracked the direction of causality between currency devaluation and real economic variables in Nigeria. The study adopted the qualitative and quantitative research design. Secondary time series data covering 1990 to 2020 were obtained in the study. Estimation methods used in the study’s analysis includes descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ARDL Co-integration analysis, parsimonious error correction model, granger causality test and other post estimation tests. Findings from the study revealed that gross domestic product exert positive significant impact on currency devaluation captured with currency devaluation both in the short and long run; balance of trade exert positive significant impact on Nigeria currency devaluation both in the short run and insignificant positive impact in the long run; external debt exerts negative significant impact on Nigeria currency devaluation in the short run; and positive significant impact in the long run; and a unidirectional relationship exists between external debt and currency devaluation, balance of trade and currency devaluation, external debt and balance of trade respectively. Premised on these findings, the study advocated that government in collaboration with monetary agencies should seek sound measures to reduce import and encourage exports towards maintaining positive trade balance and improve economic growth; government should create and introduce economic reforms or macroeconomic policies targeted at causing friendly business environment, boost economic output and improving the performance of the economy and government and the Central Bank of Nigeria should ensure debts contracted are deployed towards encouraging investment in exportable goods and services.

How Important are Sino-Latin American Trade for Economic Growth? A Trade in Value-Added Perspective

Sino-Latin American trade have increased substantially for decades. However, the increasing trade imbalances between China and several Latin American countries have yielded growing trade frictions. In this paper, we re-calculate the bilateral trade balance using the value-added content in trade and measure the contribution of Sino-Latin American trade to economic growth. The results show that gross trade statistics seriously overestimate the real bilateral trade imbalance, and China’s trade surplus with Mexico decreased by over 50%. The composition of Sino-Latin American trade suggests that most Latin American economies are complementary with Chinese economy. The South-South trade has been increasingly important for both China’s and Latin America’s economic development. We foresee an optimistic future of relations and continuously increasing trade between China and Latin America. Meanwhile, more efforts should be made to settle trade frictions and intensify Sino-Latin American relations.

The Trend of Agricultural Sector Resilience in Indonesia During 2008-2020

Purpose: The agricultural sector has an essential role in developing the economy of Indonesia (food, feed, raw materials for industry, contributor to gross domestic product, and labor absorption). For decades, this business field has survived (positive economic growth, while most of the business field faces contraction) during the country’s economic shock (financial crisis, economic setback, and pandemic situation). Thus, this study aims to measure Indonesia’s agricultural sector’s resilience and trends.Research Method: Secondary data have been collected from various sources: The UN Comtrade, World Bank, Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Bank Indonesia, and Investing Coordinating Board of Indonesia. Moreover, principal component analysis is used to determine the index of agricultural sector resilience in Indonesia, while trend analysis is employed to investigate the development of the resilience index from time to time.Findings: The resilience of the agricultural sector varies from time to time. However, it is statistically proven (a = 1%) that resilience tends to increase over the last twelve years.Research Limitations: The variables to determine the agricultural sector resilience in Indonesia consist of trade balance, agricultural terms of trade, total investment, government spending in the agricultural sector, total credit, agricultural workers’ income, and percentage of agricultural workers to total workers. It is suggested that the future study, employed non-agricultural parameters such as environmental conditions and research and development budget to capture a more comprehensive situation on agricultural sector resilience.Originality/ Value: This study contributes to the renewal of the literature on the resilience of the agricultural sector. Moreover, the variables used to represent the parameters of agricultural development in Indonesia may be applied in other countries.

International Market Selection Based on Integrated MCDM Methods: A Case Study of Iron and Steel Sector

International Market Selection (IMS) is crucial for companies seeking growth and expansion beyond their domestic boundaries. IMS is a strategic decision that requires careful evaluation of several factors to minimize risks and achieve long-term success in international markets. Accordingly, this study aims to find out optimal market alternatives for exporter companies operated in iron and steel sector. A total of twenty-three market alternatives were evaluated based on ten criteria. The alternatives and criteria were determined by literature review and expert opinions. The weight of criteria was calculated by the FUCOM and LOPCOW methods. Once the weight of criteria was determined, the alternatives were ranked using the SPOTIS, RSMVC, CoCoSo and Borda Count methods. The results showed that balance of trade and GDP were the most and least important criteria, respectively. Overall results revealed that Canada, the UAE, Germany, Japan and Malaysia were the best market alternatives, while Venezuela, Mexico, Peru, Colombia and the UK were the worst market alternatives for iron and steel exporter companies. Additionally, the sensitivity analysis was carried out to observe the robustness of the results.

Current Status, Problems and Suggestions of Import and Export of Goods Trade between China and Chile

As one of the largest trading countries in the world, China continues to expand its trade relations with various countries, which has promoted the development of China-Chile trade in goods. Bilateral goods trade has consistently exhibited robust growth. This paper aims to delve into the current status of goods trade between China and Chile, analyze the existing challenges, and propose feasible recommendations. Through comprehensive data analysis, this research unveils the key features and challenges of their trade relationship, providing substantial support for enhancing cooperation.To begin with, this paper provides a detailed overview of the scale of China-Chile trade, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of their relationship. Simultaneously, it highlights the primary categories of Chinese exports to the Chilean market and Chile’s key import demands from China. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of the major issues confronting the current merchandise trade between the two nations is conducted, encompassing concerns such as trade imbalances, product structures, and investment levels. Finally, recommendations are put forth to address these challenges, primarily focusing on enhancing policy coordination to promote bilateral investments, improving product structures to augment the value of traded goods, and optimizing investment structures to deepen bilateral cooperation.

Analysis of Japan’s Experience of Implementing Technological Sovereignty Strategy

The article discusses the purpose of technological sovereignty of each state and its role for economic sustainability. The essence of technological sovereignty in the aspect of various scientific approaches is revealed as well as the boundaries of the sovereignty type under consideration are determined, taking into account production and knowledge-intensive components. Attention is focused on the features of Japan’s transition from a state in isolation to a state interacting with the outside world through technology. The essence of Japan’s approach to ensuring its own economic stability against the background of technological production is revealed. Japan’s place in the world rankings is considered in terms of technology and the number of registered patents for inventions. The indicators of capital investments, industry priorities, labor force in technological industries, the level of exports of goods and services from GDP, the trade balance from GDP, the level of exports of high technologies for 2020–2022 against the background of strengthening Japan’s technological sovereignty are analyzed. The forecast estimates of the technological future of Japan are determined, taking into account the priority in the national economy and the specifics of entering the foreign market with a new technological development. These forward-looking estimates take into account the specifics of the import of raw materials and their intended purpose to ensure technological sovereignty in the foreseeable future. As a result, there is a high probability of having a certain economic algorithm that allows the Japanese economy to restore the desired stability indicators in a short time. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct applied research in order to identify the essence of the economic algorithm used by Japan to strengthen technological sovereignty and ensure economic stability in a short time for subsequent possible adaptation in the Russian economy.

Analysing the Factors Behind Exchange Rate Fluctuations in India

Abstract: The study gives an overview of the various determinants of the exchange rate movements in India. Out of the multiple factors affecting the Rupee-Dollar value the impact of Interest rate differential, Trade deficit of India, Foreign Net investment inflows to India, Oil prices, and Gold prices (in the short term) on the exchange rate has been studied using Regression analysis and correlation and the role they played by the above mentioned variables in determining the exchange rate during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2010 and during the Covid-19 Period from 2020-2023. Exchange rate fluctuations play a crucial role in shaping the economy of a country, and India is no exception. The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against major world currencies is subject to constant fluctuations, influenced by a multitude of domestic and global factors. These fluctuations have significant implications for various stakeholders, including businesses, consumers, investors, and policymakers. Several factors contribute to the exchange rate fluctuations in India. One of the primary factors is the demand and supply dynamics of foreign exchange. Factors such as trade balance, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, remittances impact the demand for and supply of foreign currency, Crude oil prices, Gold prices, and thereby affecting the exchange rate. In addition, macroeconomic variables like inflation, interest rates, and economic growth also play a crucial role in determining exchange rate movements. For instance, a high inflation rate in India compared to trading partner countries can lead to a depreciation of the rupee. Global economic conditions and geopolitical events are other significant factors influencing exchange rate fluctuations in India. Economic developments in major trading partners, changes in global commodity prices, and geopolitical tensions can all impact investor sentiment and capital flows, leading to fluctuations in the exchange rate. For example, uncertainties related to Brexit or trade tensions between major economies can trigger volatility in currency markets. Monetary policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also play a crucial role in influencing exchange rates. Interest rate changes, open market operations, and forex interventions by the central bank can impact the value of the rupee visa-vis other currencies. The RBI often intervenes in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the rupee or prevent extreme volatility. Apart from these factors, market speculation, investor sentiment, and technological advancements in the financial markets can also contribute to exchange rate fluctuations. High-frequency trading, algorithmic trading, and the use of complex financial instruments by market participants can amplify exchange rate movements and increase volatility

NAVIGATING GLOBAL COMMERCE: AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S TRADE RELATION :

In today's era of unprecedented globalization, international trade stands as a vital pillar of global economic integration and prosperity. Within this intricate web of trade relations, India emerges as a pivotal player, endowed with a rich history, diverse economic landscape, and growing influence on the global stage. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of India's trade relations, exploring its historical evolution, contemporary dynamics, and future prospects within the global commerce landscape. India’s journey in international trade reflects a tale of remarkable transformation, marked by shifts in economic policies, geopolitical realities, and technological advancements. As India assumes a key role in the global economy, understanding its trade relations becomes imperative, not only for its own development trajectory but also for the broader dynamics of global trade. At the heart of this exploration is the recognition of India's strategic importance, driven by factors such as its burgeoning population, thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem, and rich human capital. India's vast market potential, coupled with rapid urbanization and a growing middle class, positions it as an attractive destination for trade and investment. However, India's trade journey is not devoid of challenges. Navigating tariff and non-tariff barriers, addressing trade imbalances, and managing regulatory frameworks pose significant hurdles to sustained economic growth and global competitiveness. Additionally, geopolitical dynamics, regional tensions, and evolving trade norms further complicate India's trade relations, influencing its engagement with key partners worldwide.Against this backdrop, this paper endeavors to offer a comprehensive understanding of India's trade relations, analyzing key drivers, challenges, and opportunities. Drawing upon a rich tapestry of data, case studies, and scholarly insights, it seeks to unravel the nuances of India's trade policy landscape, sectoral dynamics, and socio-economic implications. Keywords: India, trade relations, globalization, economic integration, geopolitical dynamics, trade policy, challenges, opportunities.

Analyzing global competitiveness of Turkish air conditioning industry

The global economy significantly relies on the air conditioning sector, which has been gaining increased importance worldwide and in Türkiye due to the impact of global warming, climate change, and the diminishing energy resources. As a multifaceted industry encompassing air conditioning, heating, installation, insulation, refrigeration and ventilation sector has been adapting to the growing demand for environmentally friendly and energy-efficient solutions. This study analyzes air conditioning industry of Türkiye and its sub-product groups in terms of its ability to compete internationally, spanning from 2001 to 2021. To assess competitiveness, we employed various analytical tools, including Balassa's Revealed Comparative Advantages Index (RCA), Vollrath Indices (RXA, RMP, RTA, RC), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantages Index (RSCA), Trade Balance Index (TBI), and Product Mapping method. Notably, there is no research that scrutinize the competitiveness of the Turkish air conditioning industry utilizing the Product Mapping. The study findings emphasize that air conditioning industry of Türkiye has competitiveness. Within the sub-product group, the analysis reveals that Türkiye has competitiveness for 11 products, a near-limit competitiveness for 3 products, and a lack of competitiveness for 10 products.

The Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Bangladesh’s Economy: A Supply Chain Perspective and Way Forward

Bangladesh’s economy is facing significant challenges restricting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensified by its status as an oil-importing nation vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations. This study addresses the current perspectives and challenges which include inflationary pressures, trade imbalances, and disruptions in the supply chain, leading to increased expenditures for essential commodities. This research was developed through a systematic literature review based on secondary data, including online databases, journals, and review papers, etc. This exploratory study reveals that policymakers need to diversify energy sources, forge new trade partnerships, and implement measures to bolster economic resilience. The economic fallout from the conflict, surpassing the actual war in cost, has depleted the central bank's reserves, prompting austerity measures. The forex market experiences volatility, contributing to high trade deficits and the highest inflation rate in recent years. Bangladesh must address forex management challenges and formulate prudent policies for economic recovery. The conflict has disrupted global commodity markets, leading to inflationary pressures and increased costs for businesses in Bangladesh, especially larger organizations handling rising raw material costs and weak consumer demand. The rationale of this paper is to evaluate the literature on this aspect and apprehend the global demand, and supply of food and commodities, economic impacts in Bangladesh, challenges in global trade, trade relations, currency fluctuations, inflation, emergency price, and its consequences, recognize gaps and advocate future research itineraries. The paper offers a synopsis and appraisal of the overall economy of Bangladesh and finally navigates a way forward to the policymakers which would unlock further research to develop this sector.

Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach

This research analysed the bilateral J-curve phenomenon in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, we applied both the linear and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) co-integration methods, in addition to the asymmetric Toda-Yamamoto causality test, to examine whether the impact of Turkish lira appreciations differs from that of lira depreciation. The findings from the linear model indicate statistically significant coefficients for the long term, and J-curve effects were observed in the case of two countries: Russia and the UAE. This suggests that when the Turkish lira depreciates, it positively affects Turkey's trade balance with these partners; however, lira appreciations have a negative impact. In contrast, the non-linear model provides more evidence, with the results revealing that asymmetry cannot be ignored, as the positive and negative variables exhibit differences in signs, magnitudes, and levels of significance. We found the J-curve effect for only three countries (India, USA, and UAE) out of seven partners in this model. Third, the lira evaluation between the short and long run affected the external balance. Furthermore, the long-run error correction mechanisms converge to steady-state equilibrium faster. Lastly, there is a unidirectional or bilateral linkage between the FX rate and the external deficit for these four partners. Therefore, exchange rate policies are a determinant that should be considered in relationships with certain trading partners.