Decoupling with(out) outsourcing? Quantifying emissions embodied in BRI trade with implications for climate policy

Abstract

We empirically examine the trade-related environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) using a novel technology-adjusted consumption-based accounting in addition to traditional accounting schemes and data from the Eora Global database from 1995 to 2015. We find that BRI trade accounted for 3-quarters (5.01 Gt) of global traded emissions in 2015. BRI countries account for 60%–75% of (non-BRI) developed-world consumption-based emissions. While developing (BRI) countries import 8%–42% of their consumption needs from China, they account for half of the China’s imported emissions. Our analysis reveals that technological adjustments in export sectors significantly alter the magnitude of outsourcing and emission responsibility assigned to both BRI and non-BRI countries. This leads to a notable shift in net trade balance emissions. We find that developed (BRI and non-BRI) countries have reduced emissions primarily through decoupling and outsourcing. Our findings demonstrate that BRI trade has diverse environmental effects; exports from more carbon-efficient (BRI and non-BRI) developed countries are likely to reduce (or avoid) emissions in developing (BRI) countries and vice versa. An important implication of these findings is that China’s BRI-led outsourcing and investments have the potential to yield significant environmental benefits by accelerating the transition to renewable energy in developing countries participating in the initiative.