Balance Of Power Theory Research Articles

US Critical Mineral Policies and Alliance Strategies in an Age of Geopolitical Rivalry

We examine the geoeconomic strategies of the US regarding critical minerals through the lens of geopolitical rivalry with China. Chinese companies, mostly state-owned enterprises, play a prominent role in the extraction and processing of minerals critical to the energy transition. Drawing on the balance of power theory, we argue that the US, the incumbent hegemon, can employ both domestic policies and alliance-building strategies to counterbalance China’s dominance in critical mineral sectors. Empirically, we first assess the nature of US domestic policies with respect to promoting domestic critical mineral production and restricting foreign investment in the extractive sectors through investment screening measures, and then assess the degree to which the US has relied on Five Eyes alliance partners to achieve common strategic goals. We find evidence that the US uses a multifaceted geoeconomic approach involving domestic policies and alliance strategies to counterbalance China’s dominant position in critical mineral supply chains.

US-China global competition and dilemma for Vietnam's strategic choices in the South China Sea conflict

The South China Sea (SCS) conflict has become a critical factor for regional peace and development with growing geopolitical competition between China and the USA. To face the rising threat of China, the study argues that the balance of power theory is relevant to explain why Vietnam attempts to strengthen strategic alliances with the USA, Russia, EU, and India to balance against the rising threat of China in SCS. However, this theory is not able to explain why Vietnam has a bandwagoning policy toward China at the same time. To fill the gap of the previous studies, this study endeavors to put forward the point that as geopolitical rivalry between the two superpowers, the United States and China, intensifies, Vietnam is put in a predicament of balancing the economic and the political choices against the choices of taking a neutral stand against the assertiveness of China in the SCS. Further, the alternative traditional balance options with ASEAN, and Russia are not sufficiently effective for Vietnam to balance against China since the position of both ASEAN and Russia is much weaker than China. This study also suggests that the support of the USA, EU, and its alliance for Vietnam’s position creates unbearable costs for China’s aggressive behaviors in SCS. By using the mathematical and logical framework, the study suggests that Vietnam tends to adopt a mixed strategy (balancing, bandwagoning, neutrality) in dealing with China’s threats.

The impact of Pakistan-Turkey maritime cooperation on regional peace

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is not solely to shed light on the maritime cooperation between Pakistan and Turkey but also to analyse whether it has any impact on regional peace. Ergo, this research deals with a crucial question, what effect does Pakistan-Turkey maritime cooperation have on regional peace? In order to answer this question, this study uses the balance of power theory. Pakistan ought to balance its naval power with that of its rival India in order to accomplish peace and prosperity in the region. At present, the two countries are asymmetrical in terms of military power. Since 1947, they have fought four wars, which have seriously affected the peace of the entire region. To acquire regional peace and prosperity, Islamabad and Ankara have gone beyond religious, political, and cultural relations and turned to maritime cooperation. Turkey has become Pakistan's second-largest arms export partner, exporting modern submarines, frigates, destroyers, and other equipment over the past 20 years. Since 9/11, they have held numerous bilateral and multilateral naval exercises to deal with any form of maritime security threat.

Respon Amerika Serikat dalam Menyeimbangkan Kekuatan Cina Melalui AUKUS dalam Klaim Kedaulatan Cina di Laut Cina Selatan

This research aims to analyze the formation of AUKUS as a new defense pact as the United States' response to China's unilateral claim of sovereignty in the South China Sea. The lack of presence of the United States, which for the last few decades has been too busy with its military operations in the Middle East region, has given China more freedom to carry out aggressive maneuvers in the Asia Pacific region which has then created an imbalance of power due to China's military strength being far superior to that of the alliance countries. United States in Asia such as the Philippines and Australia. In this research, a qualitative approach was used which aims to understand the phenomenon of events experienced by the subject through descriptions. Furthermore, this research uses the Balance of Power Theory and the Concept of Detterence as analytical tools to understand the material raised in this research. The results of this research show that AUKUS was formed due to the decline of the United States in various sectors which coincided with the rise of China as a new superpower. It is hoped that the selection of Australia and the UK in this collaboration will provide additional support to pressure China in the South China Sea through short-term and long-term programs.

Japan’s Changing National Security Strategy: Analysis (2013 - 2023)

This study aims to explore the importance of understanding how states adapt their security strategies in response to regional challenges. Initially, in 2013, Japan identified North Korea and its nuclear program as the primary threat, however changing the security environment, Tokyo has shifted its national security strategy. The turning point in Tokyo security is due to the rise in China's power, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the continuous threat from the North Korean missile test. The Japanese people did not support the security initiative of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But now because of the security challenge in the region, the people are supporting the government. After World War, II Japan was a pacifist state that forbade military development and depended on the United States for protection against the enemy. But now because of the continuing threat from regional countries, it is focusing on modernizing its military power. Japan's government to defend its national security, is restoring its ties with the United States. To fend off China, Russia, and North Korea, Japan is seeking security alliances with other nations to avoid solely relying on the United States. Tokyo is increasing its military and proliferation of weapons because world politics is transforming from uni-polarity to multi-polarity. Balance of power theory is crucial in analyzing strategic changes and alliances in the context of a shifting security environment.

AUKUS: Unresolved threats to the international system?

The formation of AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, and United States) on September 15, 2021, elicited conflicting reactions from states in the international system. China, Southeast Asian countries, the US allies in the Indo Pacific, European countries and other countries in the international system demonstrated their different reactions based on their perception of security threat. The objective of this study is to investigate state reactions and to examine the implications of AUKUS for the international system. This study is analysed qualitatively using literature on the topic. Most studies on the formation of AUKUS use the security dilemma concept in analysing the formation of AUKUS. However, this study revealed that immediate state reactions to the formation of AUKUS are not completely in line with the concept of security dilemma. Balance of power theory may offer a more comprehensive assessment of the implications of AUKUS for other states in the international system. This study offers recommendations for states tackling this complex balance of power phenomena as a result of AUKUS’s formation in the international system. Increasing defense diplomacy among states is a significant long-term step for states to confront AUKUS as an unresolved threat in the international system.

РАССТАНОВКА СИЛ В РЕГИОНЕ ПРИДНЕСТРОВСКОГО КОНФЛИКТА В КОНТЕКСТЕ СПЕЦИАЛЬНОЙ ВОЕННОЙ ОПЕРАЦИИ РОССИИ НА УКРАИНЕ

The article is an analysis of the alignment of forces in the region of the Transnistrian conflict in the context of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The author proceeds from the fact that around the Transnistrian conflict, international relations have developed into a kind of subsystem, which is influenced by events and significant changes in international relations at regional and global levels. The purpose of the article is to determine the balance of power in the conflict region and assess the dynamics of transformation of the sub-regional situation in the context of a special military operation The following research tasks were solved in the study: the balance of power in the region of the Transnistrian conflict was characterized on the eve of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, the changes in that balance in the course of the operation were assessed, and the prospects for resolving the Transnistrian conflict in its context were identified. Through the use of system analysis, balance of power theory, geopolitical approach, historical and comparative analysis as a methodological basis, the author comes to the following conclusions. The existing alignment of forces in the region of the Transnistrian conflict is distinguished by the extremely pronounced position of the actors, divided into two “camps”, in relation to each other and the prospects for resolving the Transnistrian conflict. The interests of regional actors are consistent – in the subsystem of international relations in the region of the Transnistrian conflict, there are practically no actors that would have an ambivalent geopolitical orientation. A characteristic feature of the sub-regional situation is that, under the conditions of Russia’s special military operation it is maximally included in the regional and global context.

Russia-Ukraine War and the Changing Global System

The study examined the Russia-Ukraine war and the changing global system. The study is anchored on the balance of power theory as propounded by Hans Morgenthau in 1966 and later expanded by Kenneth Waltz and Christopher Layne. The Ex-Post Facto (After the fact) research design was used for the study. Data was gotten through secondary sources like, textbooks, newspapers, journal articles and internet materials. Qualitative analysis was used to analyse the data, although figure was presented where required. The study found out that before the Russia-Ukraine war there was a global system which is bipolarity with two opposing alliances during the cold war, controlled by United States and Soviet Union. The finding also showed that after the fall of the Soviet Union the global system changed to a unipolar system with United States in charge, this is seen in its resources were the GNP in 2011 was 15,290 billion dollars as compared to 7.298 billion dollars of China and Russia which was 1, 581 billion dollars. The finding of the study showed that Russia’s notion of a polycentric world stems from the belief that, because of its decentralized nature, it will be easier for Russia to realize its ambitions as a pole, thereby expanding its power. However, the study concluded the global system that was in existence before the Russia-Ukraine war was bipolar and later changed to a unipolar system after the fall of the Soviet Union, but the Russia-Ukraine war has drastically changed the global system to a new polycentric system.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY AND ITS LIMITS IN FORECASTING CHINESE BEHAVIOR TOWARDS THE US. THE CASE OF BALANCE OF POWER THEORY AND POWER TRANSITION THEORY

The literature on international relations pays special attention to China's rise since the "opening of China" in 1978, trying to identify and make predictions about China's behavioral patterns in its relationship with the United States and the current international system. Not surprisingly, international relations theories have been considered – from Morgenthau to present –, useful tools for predicting the evolution of major events in the international relations system. Using different theoretical lenses we can infer different outcomes regarding the complicated US-China relationship especially now, when the Chinese economic and social transformation seems to be accompanied by a revival of its own traditional concepts aimed at formulating a „Chinese school”, of international relations, characterized by the rejection of the realist assumptions that point almost every time to an imminent confrontation and placing both countries on even more profoundly contrasting positions. Therefore, starting from the balance of power theory and the power transition theory, this article aims to identify the extent to which the two theories prove explanatory and predictive value and can be useful tools for inferring China's behavior in the context of the current aggressive discourse that characterizes the relationship between the two countries. Also, this paper is aiming to analyze the limits we can identify in the existing literature on both theories.

The Roots of Great Power Competition: An Analysis Based on the Increasing Returns Mechanism

Geopolitics, technology and international institutions are three major areas of great power competition. In the analysis of great power relations, both the balance of power theory and the hegemony theory rely on the assumption of diminishing returns and ignore the possibility of increasing returns. Increasing returns play an extensive role in geographical location, technological evolution and institutional change; accordingly, the increasing returns mechanism in great power relations is reflected in the geopolitical competition, technological competition and international institutional competition of great powers. The rational expectation that initial advantages will be transformed into long-term advantages through the mechanism of increasing returns drives great powers into competition whether they are rivals or allies. As specific mechanisms leading to increasing returns, coordination effects operate in geopolitical competition, technological competition and international institution competition; learning effects are found in technological competition and international institution competition; and adaptive expectations play a part in international institution competition. Various cases, ranging from the Anglo-Dutch rivalry over maritime hegemony in the 17th century to the current US-European competition over international investment arbitration regimes, show that great power competition derives from the logic of increasing returns.

The Turkish Art of Offensive-Balancing from the Perspective of Neorealism

In his foreign policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reconsidered commitments to the United States and NATO allies that limit his political ambitions. Turkey’s military power is actively involved in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the South Caucasus in an attempt to alter the existing regional orders. Offensive realism, as a branch of neorealism, asserts that states are willing to use force to advance their own interests, and that their survival in the international system requires a maximization of power. Defensive neorealism holds that aggressive expansion clashes with the interests of other states and their desire to ensure their own security. According to the balance of power theory, the expansion and maximization of power reduces the security of an offensive state by countering a coalition of balancing states. At the same time, Turkish foreign policy strongly supports the formation of an Islamist, neo-patrimonialist, populist, and security-obsessed ruling bloc representing the resentment of Turkish society of the historical injustices committed by the West. This article attempts to determine Erdoğan’s strategy, examines it from the standpoint of the offensive/defensive approach of neorealism, and evaluates its effectiveness. Erdoğan has created a multi-polar balancing structure of foreign relations in which Turkish rivals restrain each other. This structure is similar to a pentahedron with Turkey in the center and its main rivals–partners arrayed around it at each point. Ankara, by shifting closer to one or another rival–partner, can effectively bargain with others using threats.

Industri Pertahanan Prancis dan Inggris Dalam Penguatan Aliansi Kekuatan Militer pada Perang Dunia I

World War I took place on the European continent between the Allies and the Central powers. In this war, the warring parties did not only rely on the troops quantity, but also their own technology. In addition, both sides had maximally empowered their strategic industries in building military forces for war. The article identifies the factors that supported the victory of France and Britain in World War I, thus encouraging the development of war technology and strategic industry which continues to present day. In that arena, France and Britain had the upper hand in the use of technology and industrial support for war. The theories used for this discussion are Carl von Clausewitz's theory of war, Morgenthau's balance of power theory, Liddell Hart's strategy theory and the theory of revolution in military affairs. The discussion was carried out using qualitative methods with an exploratory and historical approach which ultimately showed that the Allied defense industry had so far gained technological advantage from the influence of the victory in World War I.

IRAN-US RELATIONS AFTER THE DEATH OF QASSEM SOLEIMANI

<p>Iran-United States relations have up and down. Some sharp diplomatic statements made by the US president, Donald Trump, as well as the president of Iran, Ayatullah Khomeini. In fact, the sanctions that must be accepted by the US against Iran are embargo sanctions. This article aims to analyze how the future relations between Iran and the United States. Cooperation between the two countries has a history that dates back to the Cold War. Relations between these two countries based on a variety of interests, including economic, political, military, ideological, and security considerations . The theory used in this research is balance of power theory. The US has major interest in the Middle East and Iran is a rival of the US in achieving that interest. Nevertheless, many US foreign policies are caused tension between the two countries. Conversely, Iran has considerable economic importance, but the role of the Iran government elite also has a significant influence in the determination of their foreign policy. The findings in this study, despite challenges and complicated processes, the US and Iran are eternal rivals in the fusion of power and political influence in the Middle East, and relations between both will continue to fluctuate . </p>

South Korea’s Hedging toward South Korea-United States-China Trilateral Dynamics

초록·키워드 목차 오류제보하기 Despite increasing domestic and international pressure to choose between the US Indo-Pacific Strategy and China"s Belt and Road Initiative, South Korea is still not officially participating in either of the two countries’ core strategies. Instead, South Korea introduced a neutral policy called the New Southern Policy. Through the New Southern Policy, South Korea has been encouraging participation by strategic functions in areas that have a common interest between South Korea, the United States, and China, and has been promoting and reinforcing cooperation with the two superpowers simultaneously. This ambiguous strategy taken by South Korea is a typical hedging strategy that the weaker state takes against the competing two great powers while maintaining a certain distance from the fierce competition between them. This shows that a hedging strategy asserted in the balance of power theory is valid in explaining the strategic actions South Korea is taking in relation to the fierce US-China competition in the Indo-Pacific region of the 21st century. #South Korea #United States #China #Indo-Pacific Strategy #Belt and Road Initiative AbstractⅠ. IntroductionⅡ. Theory ReviewⅢ. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) vs. United States Indo-Pacific StrategyⅣ. South Korea’s HedgingⅤ. ConclusionReferences

Pakistan’s quest for balance in the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy

ABSTRACT This paper uses the balance of power theory to explain Pakistan’s quest for balance in the context of the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). Although this strategy aims to achieve the goal of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ and focuses on China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region. However, it also has security implications for Pakistan. The question here is; how the Indo-Pacific Strategy affect Pakistan’s strategic behavior? We believe that the maritime security cooperation between the United States and India under the framework of IPS strengthens the relative capabilities of the Indian navy, creates a zero-sum situation for Pakistan, and undermines the balance of power that affects Islamabad's strategic behavior. If so, to what degree is Islamabad adopting balancing strategies to counterbalance the risk of Indian aggression or coercion? To what degree is Pakistan pursuing deeper security cooperation with Russia and China in the Indo-Pacific in pursuit of a more stable balance of power? It is pursuing a strategy of internal and external balance. Internally, it is focusing on modernizing the navy, purchasing advanced weapons, and developing strategies related to maritimes security. Externally, it is seeking deeper security cooperation with Russia and China, such as holding joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, exchanging naval officials, and signing military cooperation and strategic partnerships to maintain the balance of power.

American Grand Strategy in Africa: From Hegemony to the Balance of Power?

This paper explores the American grand strategy in Africa; more specifically in response to economic and security issues and socio-political instability in different regions of Africa. Having said that, this paper does not seek to re/appraise the US economic areas or/and security role and/or strategies to avert and halt the widespread terrorism in different parts of the African Continent. Instead, it explores the American grand strategy in Africa from a theoretical perspective. To capture this argument, the study uses Kenneth Waltz’s theory of Balance of Power (1979) as the most advanced theoretical framework to illustrate that the United States, as a great power, is power balancing China’s and Russia’s expanding geopolitical influence in Africa through military and economic cooperation. The paper argues that the United States’ goal behind power balancing with China and Russia is to make sure that their presence is not used to turn the African continent into the Eastern sphere of influence. The theoretical contribution of this research paper is to expand the understanding of Kenneth Waltz’s Balance of Power theory; especially balance by engaging in the competitive acquisition of territory and forming alliances.

Strategic Balance between India and Pakistan with respect to “Balance of Power Theory”

India and Pakistan have strained relations since their independence because of serious conflicts like the Kashmir issue and major wars of 1965 and 1971. There is a continuous struggle for dominance among both the states through nuclear weapons and alliances with other nuclear weapons states, which have been addressed in this paper. India had made South Asia nuclear; to which Pakistan develop its nuclear program. Moreover, India and the United States growing relationship have further created an imbalance in the region. In return, Pakistan started strengthening its ties with China to counterbalance the Indian threat. This has been discussed in the paper that both states have actually created balance against one another in the context of the balance of power theory. But it is not going to be long lasting as there is a negative peace among them, and a single event can trigger a major conflict and depict dominance of one over the other.

A parceria sino-russa e a disputa pela Eurásia: imperativos geopolíticos e alianças conjunturais pelo controle do continente basilar

O objetivo do artigo é analisar a parceria sino-russa atual, a partir das teorias geopolítica e de balança de poder. Argumenta-se que a força motriz desta aproximação na segunda década do século XXI se dá no sentido de diminuir a influência de potências extrarregionais sobre a Eurásia – sobretudo dos EUA, devido ao seu poder e presença oriundos do final da Guerra Fria – que representam uma ameaça estratégica comum aos interesses russo e chinês. Esse aspecto pode ser identificado nas diferentes frentes de cooperação sino-russa que possuem um caráter estratégico. Na impossibilidade de detalhar cada aspecto da parceria em um só artigo, esse trabalho dará luz à cooperação energética, à cooperação na Ásia Central e à integração eurasiática com liderança sino-russa.

Conceptualizing Soft Balancing Beyond Cold War. What’s Changed, What Remains the Same?

This article is a systematic inquiry into the nature and role of soft balancing in the contemporary theory and practice of international relations. By wading into the contentious debate concerning the place and legitimacy of soft balancing, the article explores the theoretical prominence of the concept and adds methodological content to the study. Thus, the research produces a quantitative corpus-based and thematic analysis of the existing soft balancing literature to demarcate the boundary of the concept. This approach enables the author to enhance conventional theorization and not only identify the main gaps within the existing studies but go beyond the popular post-Cold War era discussion. Additionally, this article addresses the question of how soft balancing is distinguished from other concepts in the balance of power theory. Ultimately, the study reveals that despite its theoretical and empirical potential, the soft balancing research agenda remains underdeveloped, largely due to the limitation in the empirical content. Precisely, the empirical studies are limited to balance of power rhetoric akin to hard vs. soft and its implications for the United States’ hegemonic power.

The Balance of Power System of the Middle East

Since the onset of the Arab Spring, there has been a growing interest in the changing balance of power of the Middle East. The balance of power theory in global context has been extensively studied. However, little research has been dedicated to the theory’s applicability solely at the regional level, especially with the contemporary Middle East in focus, while the region is suffering from armed conflicts involving virtually all the regional states as well as the great powers and many different non-state actors. This paper is an attempt to shed light on the applicability of the balance of power concept and the theory of omnibalancing in relation to the Middle East through reviewing the relevant literature.