Bad Year Research Articles

Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators

ObjectivesFollowing well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of COVID-19 deaths to facilitate comparisons over time and across populations.SettingsNational populations in 186 United Nations...

ВПЛИВ МІЖНАРОДНОГО ТУРИЗМУ НА ЕКОНОМІЧНУ ПОЛІТИКУ КРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19

In the developed countries, tourism is an important source of income and wellbeing improvement. In Ukraine, with all its incredibly rich historic heritage and priceless recreation and spa resorts resources, tourism is developing mostly as an outbound one. Under hard modern political-economic situation of Ukraine, with all its financial problems, issues of the situation on the international tourism market and its future changes under COVID-19 epidemics, the place of tourism in the national economic policy are critically urgent and are partially examined in the article. The objective of the research is to reveal the issues of nature, importance, modern state and prospects of international tourism development in the economic policy of Ukraine under COVID-19 epidemics. Currently, tourism industry is a one of the forms of international service trade, which is rapidly developing. In the past 20 years, the average growth rate of newly arriving foreign tourists in the world constituted 5,1%, while currency incomes accounted for about 14%. In 2019, by the UNWTO data, international tourist arrivals reached 1,5 billion which is the tenth year of positive dynamics in a row for the global tourism. The expert’s forecasts for 2020 about the rates and dynamics of international tourism development were rather optimistic and expected its rapid growth for the next years. However, COVID-19 epidemics modified the existing forecasts and plans and radically changed forever the industry’s development. By the latest UNWTO data, global tourism has live through the worst year ever in 2020, the number of international tourists declined by 74%. Tourist destinations in the whole world earned 1 billion less in 2020 that a year before because of the unprecedented drop of demand and restriction imposed on travels. By the experts assessment, export incomes of the international tourism amount to about 1,3 trillion dollars. The international tourism crisis caused by COVID-19 epidemics put at risk 100-120 million jobs in tourism and supporting industries, most of which are small and medium sized businesses. It is even harder to evaluate money lost by state budgets in the forms of uncollected taxes and other payments. The COVID-19 epidemics impact on the international tourism in Ukraine is not as dramatic as in some tourism-focused countries because Ukrainian economy is in a comparatively better state, since the share of domestic and outbound tourism is much higher that the inbound one. Governments of the most countries immediately responded to the acute need of minimizing the economic consequences of COVID-19 epidemics. Among the suggested scenarios of preventing the negative impact of the epidemics on the economic situation, countries used following two approaches: first – aimed at providing affordable credit lines for businesses, the second one has to work out after postponing payments of debt and tax obligations.

ОСНОВНІ ЗДОБУТКИ ТА ПРОРАХУНКИ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ ЮНВТО (1975-2020 РР.)

In this article, the main achievements and miscalculations of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) from 1975 to 2020 are researched in detail. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is a specialized intergovernmental institution of the United Nations system, which is responsible for promoting sustainable, responsible and sustainable development. Thus, the main goal of this organization is to promote tourism, which will make an invaluable contribution to economic prosperity, maintaining peace and international security, prosperity of states, respect and observance of human rights and freedoms in the world. By taking appropriate action, UNWTO is moving closer and closer to achieving this goal. Therefore, this article traces the statistics of the growth of the level of international tourism in all regions of the world during the organization existence period and in recent years. In addition, the reverse process has been recorded, namely why 2020 is considered the worst year for tourism, and what losses follow when, for example, between 100 and 120 million workers in the tourism industry have lost their jobs. The work also depicts the creation of the regulatory framework of the Organization, which is undoubtedly an achievement. It is impossible not to mention the agreement on the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), signed in 1976, the Manila Declaration on World Tourism in 1980, the Tourism Code in 1985, and so on. Also, the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics in Tourism and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals maximizes the socio-economic growth of the tourism industry. In addition to the adoption of important documents, it is also worth paying attention to the variety of activities of the Organization. Throughout its existence, UNWTO has held a large number of international forums, conferences, seminars, etc., from cultural to technical topics. These achievements are confirmed by the fact that international tourism has become one of the means of the countries’ economic growth. The achievements of this organization are also reflected in universal recognition, for example, 2002 was declared the International Year of Ecotourism, and 2017 – the International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development, during which a number of thematic events were held with a large number of people. In addition, Tourism Day is celebrated every year on September 27, which testifies to the popularity and importance of the industry for the world. Recognition is also evident through the cooperation of UNWTO with more than 200 international organizations, such as the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). However, despite the huge number of positives of the organization, there are still some miscalculations. This is the amount of membership fees and gaps in tourism statistics and classification. In general, UNWTO is the leading international intergovernmental organization on travel and tourism, whose main functions are to promote global tourism through planning, development of recommendations and direct assistance to member countries in increasing the tourist attractiveness of regions, given the economic benefits.

The Politics of Vulnerability ed. by Estelle Ferrarese

Reviewed by: The Politics of Vulnerability ed. by Estelle Ferrarese Sanna Karhu (bio) Estelle Ferrarese ed., The Politics of Vulnerability London & New York: Routledge, 2018; 131 pp. The concept of “vulnerability” has become an academic buzzword over the last few decades in the fields of social theory, political philosophy, and feminist scholarship. The concept is used in multiple ways to address different contemporary political problems ranging from social and economic marginalization and violence to global wars. One of the most well-known theoretical contributions to the concept of “vulnerability” is Judith Butler’s (2004, 2009) famous account of bodily vulnerability as a generalized state of bodily life. While for Butler vulnerability operates as a physical and affective condition for the ethics of nonviolence, for critics of vulnerability, such as Alan Badiou (2001), Bonnie Honig (2010), and Jacques Rancière (1999), the concept risks substituting politics with ethics due to its emphasis on emotions and care. Challenging the idea that vulnerability belongs solely to the ethical sphere, The Politics of Vulnerability seeks to foreground vulnerability as a political question. As Estelle Ferrarese asks in the introduction of the volume: “How could an ineradicable, universal phenomenon pertaining to human nature become the object of a critique, or be the wellspring of emancipation? How does the idea of a fundamental human vulnerability enable us to account for socially produced or configured forms of vulnerability?” (5). Answering these questions is one of the central tasks of the book, which consists of seven essays that were originally published in Critical Horizons (2016). Throughout the anthology, [End Page 280] understandings of and meanings given to vulnerability vary, refusing any clear-cut definition of the concept. For some scholars, it is associated with the question of everyday life, such as practices of care (Laugier, Ferrarese). For others, it refers to the politics of concepts: to injurious speech acts that govern racialized bodies (Michel), or to the urgency of re-politicizing the concept of “victimhood” (Cole). One of the main strengths of the volume lies in the scope of the essays: the question of vulnerability permits a broad range of topics and problems to be discussed under one heading. However, the first three essays, although otherwise important contributions, do not concentrate on the concept of vulnerability or the politics of vulnerability and thus do not directly respond to the main questions of the volume. These essays discuss vulnerability in a more implicit manner, highlighting forms of economic precarity (Castel) and the everyday practices that make some lives more susceptible to violence and death than others (Das and Deutscher). In his essay “The Rise of Uncertainties,” which provides a summary of the main theses of his book of the same name, Robert Castel discusses new forms of economic insecurity related to precarization by analyzing the negative impacts of global finance capitalism on workers (specifically in France). Castel focuses particularly on the emergence of a new class, the “precariat” who work atypical and temporary jobs, and demonstrates how it has become a permanent stratum of the division of labor. With the weakening of worker protection laws and social benefits, the precarization of work has led to the peculiar situation wherein the same individual can be both an underpaid worker and a welfare recipient. As Castel concludes, the degradation of the wage-earner system can marginalize certain populations by making it impossible for them to achieve the status of a “responsible individual”—a normative requirement of modern liberal states. Although Castel does not use the term “vulnerability,” his analysis of precarization powerfully shows that addressing the economic dynamics of the neoliberal state is necessary for any theory of vulnerability. Veena Das’s article provides an insightful reading of J.M. Coetzee’s novels Waiting for the Barbarians and Diary of a Bad Year in light of the Wittgensteinian notion of “forms of life,” interpreted through Stanley Cavell’s work. Whereas for Cavell the meaning of words and concepts depends on particular cultural contexts and shared customs, rules, and habits, that is, on shared forms of life, Das puts more emphasis on the ways in which practices of violence can disrupt the assumption of shared meanings, and thus turn forms of life...

Precarious Life and Labor in J. M. Coetzee’s Age of Iron, Slow Man, and Diary of a Bad Year

Precarious Life and Labor in J. M. Coetzee’s Age of Iron, Slow Man, and Diary of a Bad Year

Deteksi Kesehatan Keuangan Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Menggunakan Financial Discriminant Models

State-owned enterprises (BUMN) are business entities that are not only responsible for profit creation but also as a source of state revenue. This study aims to detect the financial health of BUMN using Financial Discriminant Models, namely the Springate and Taffler Models. The analysis was carried out on the BUMN financial reports for the 2014-2018 period of 16 companies with 80 financial reports being analyzed. The results of this study show that by using the Springate Model, it is known that 2017 is the best year, no BUMN is experiencing financial distress. 2018 was the worst year with 12 BUMNs declared financial distress and only 4 companies categorized as healthy. The results of the analysis with the Taffler Model show that in 2014 all BUMNs were categorized as healthy and only 1 company was declared to have financial distress.

Achieving a Diverse, Equitable, and Inclusive Environment for the Black Orthopaedic Surgeon: Part 1: Barriers to Successful Recruitment of Black Applicants.

Achieving a Diverse, Equitable, and Inclusive Environment for the Black Orthopaedic Surgeon: Part 1: Barriers to Successful Recruitment of Black Applicants.

Implementing carbon tax: from rhetoric to reality

Climate change and rising greenhouse gas emissions are the greatest concerns facing humankind today. The year 2019 was a particularly bad year for Planet Earth. The exceptional rise in atmospheric temperatures and raging heat, led to unprecedented and prolonged wildfires–the amazon rainforest fire, the Australian bushfire and a series of wildfires in the Arctic region. Recognising the urgency, the international community has agreed to act collectively. As part of the Paris Climate Agreement, most countries have undertaken carbon reduction targets. As the overall mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement appear inadequate, countries have been exploring additional approaches for carbon mitigation. One option that certain WTO Members have been considering is to impose a price on carbon in the nature of a Pigouvian tax. In the present case, it will be a tax on carbon emissions. However, imposing a carbon tax only on domestic goods will result in issues of carbon leakage as well as decreased competitiveness of the domestic industry. Therefore, WTO Members (such as the European Union) are proactively considering imposition of equivalent taxes on imports also. Such equivalent taxes will essentially be in the nature of a border adjustment taxes under the GATT 1994. This Article examines the compatibility of the border tax adjustments on carbon under the relevant provisions of the GATT 1994, in light of the jurisprudence developed so far. The Article also assesses the possibility for Members to have a recourse to general exceptions under Article XX of the GATT, were a border tax adjustment measure held inconsistent with the substantial obligations under the GATT 1994. In addition to the popular alternatives available under Article XX(b) and Article XX(g) of the GATT 1994, the article has explored the possibility of resorting to Article XX(a), in light of the recent findings in United States - Tariff Measures on Certain Goods from China . Finally, the Article highlights that in order to ensure the overall social and political acceptability of a potential border carbon measure, WTO Members need to be mindful of the multilateral mandate developed in the Paris Agreement.

Market microstructure and the historical relationship between the US farm credit system, farm service agency and commercial bank lending

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the market microstructure related to the Farm Credit System (FCS), Commercial Banks (CB) and Farm Services Administration (FSA). The commercial banks frequently call out the FCS as having an unfair advantage in the agricultural finance market place due to tax exempt bonds, and an implied guarantee of those bonds. This paper addresses the issue by examining the interrelationships since 1939, while addressing the historically distinctive roles that the FCS, CB and FSA have played in the US agricultural credit market.Design/methodology/approachThere are two components to our model. The first is the estimation of short and long run credit demand elasticities, as well as land elasticities. These are estimated from a dynamic duality model using seemingly unrelated regression. The point elasticity measures are then used as independent variables in least square regressions, combined with farm specific and related macro variables, for the Cornbelt states. The dependent variable is the year-over-year changes in paired FCS, CB and FSA loans.FindingsThe genesis of the FCS was to provide credit to farmers in good and bad years. Therefore, we expected to see a countercyclical relationship between FCS and CB. This is found for the farm crisis years in the 1980s but is not a continuous characteristic of FCS lending. In good times the FCS and CB appear to compete, albeit with differentiated market segmentation into short- and long-term credit. The FSA, which was established to provide tertiary support to both the FCS and CB, appears to be responding as designed, with greater activity in bad years. The authors find the elasticity measures to be economically significant.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors conclude that the market microstructure of the agricultural credit market in the US is important. Our analysis applies a broader definition of market microstructure for institutions and intermediaries and reveals that further research examining the economic frictions caused by comparative bond vs deposit funding of agricultural credit is important.Originality/valueThe authors believe that this is the first paper to examine agricultural finance through the market microstructure lens. In addition our long-term data measures allow us to examine the economics through various sub-periods. Finally, we believe that our introduction of credit and land demand elasticities into a comparative credit model is also a first.

Coda: The “Queen Under the Hill,” or, Robert Duncan’s Lesson in Essential Autobiography

This is a hybrid work of creative scholarship: a lyrical essay that blends personal history with literary criticism. In it, I question my apprenticeship with Duncan when I was a young twenty-something, as I was struggling to understand what it might mean to be a “good gay poet.” In 1987, I traveled with a copy of Duncan’s The Opening of the Field, and while I could not fully comprehend the poems, the book nevertheless offered me a model – for better and for worse – for sublimating my sexuality during the worst years of the AIDS crisis. Now, thirty-two years later, I return to Duncan’s first “mature” work in an effort to better understand both the book and myself.

Assessment of Groundwater behavior in Kulpahar Watershed, District Mahoba, Uttar Pradesh, India

In hard rock terrain, the groundwater occurs in two zones viz. shallow zone (in overburden) and deeper fractured zones mainly through secondary porosity. The groundwater level through 23 observation wells (fifteen dug wells and eight piezometers) has been monitored during pre and post-monsoon periods. An attempt has been made to evaluate the impact of rainfall on the groundwater level in the hard rock area of Mahoba district in the Bundelkhand region. The study depicts the impact of rainfall over the long-term groundwater level trend and establishes a conceptual structure to understand the hydrological stress conditions. Due to overexploitation, the groundwater condition has reached to the category of a critical stage. The severity and duration of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses have been analyzed statistically as well as graphically. The groundwater level is spatially and temporally variable in hard rock area and essentially depends upon the amount of rainfall, geological condition, and topographic slope. The analyzed rainfall data have been graded as a good year and bad year based on the amount of precipitation. The long-term groundwater level trend (2006-2016) indicates a sharp decline in groundwater level trend in the western part due to higher base flow and poor recharge. On the other hand, due to the presence of thicker overburden and runoff accumulation therein, the groundwater level is rising in the northern part of the study area. It also validates that there is very fair control of slope and thickness of overburden on the groundwater regime apart from the rainfall.

Экологическая оценка сортов рапса ярового в различных условиях возделывания

We conducted the environmental assessment of the spring rapeseed cultivars bred at the Siberian experimental station (SOS): Kupol, Granit and 55 region, a promising line SL-691 and a variety Tavrion bred in VNIIMK in different soil-climatic zones of cultivation. Weather conditions in the Western Siberia and the Krasnodar region had distinctive features by precipitation amount and average daily air temperature for the years of research (2017–2019). The best year for growing of spring rapeseed regardless of the cultivation zone was 2017. In the Western Siberia, the worst year for growing according to the environmental conditions index was 2019 (Ij = -5.81), and in the Krasnodar region 2018 (Ij = -10.92). Data on varieties in the Western Siberia allowed us to establish that with a higher index (bi) of 1.32 and 1.24, respectively for the varieties Granit and 55 region, they have the greatest environmental plasticity and responded more actively to certain improvements in growing conditions. In the conditions of the Krasnodar region, the highest environmental plasticity was observed for the varieties Kupol and 55 region, with bi equal to 1.29 and 1.11, respectively. Regardless of the cultivation conditions, the line SL-691 was marked as unstable by its seed yield. The varieties developed at the Siberian experimental station (SOS) – a branch of the V.S. Pustovoit All-Russian Research Institute of Oil Crops had high oil content of 52.1–52.6% in the Western Siberia on average over the years of testing. In the conditions of the Krasnodar region, the average oil content of the seeds was 42.2–43.6%. Over the years of the research, this trait was little changed over the years and stable in varieties.

A Bad Year? Climate Variability and the Wine Industry in Chile

Short-term climate conditions may affect crop yields and vintage quality and, as a consequence, wine prices and vineyards’ earnings. In this paper, we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Chile, which incorporates very detailed information about the value chain of the wine sector in the country. Using information for the 2015-2016 harvest, we calibrate climate variability shocks associated with a “bad year” for the wine industry in Chile, when premature rains occurred in important wine regions, reducing the area harvested and leading to wines with less concentrated flavors, particularly for reds. We model the climate shocks as a productivity change in the grape-producing sector (quantity effect). Moreover, we model quality effects as a shift in the foreign demand curve for Chilean wine. Given the specific economic environment in the model and the proposed simulation, it is possible to note the reduction of Chilean real GDP by about 0.067%. By decomposing this result, we verify that the quality effect has a slightly greater weight compared to the quantity effect.

Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density‐dependent population regulation in blue mussels

The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.

‘Irish fever’ in Britain during the Great Famine: immigration, disease and the legacy of ‘Black ’47’

AbstractDuring the worst year of the Great Irish Famine, ‘Black ’47’, tens of thousands of people fled across the Irish Sea from Ireland to Britain, desperately escaping the starvation and disease plaguing their country. These refugees, crowding unavoidably into the most insalubrious accommodation British towns and cities had to offer, were soon blamed for deadly outbreaks of epidemic typhus which emerged across the country during the first half of 1847. Indeed, they were accused of transporting the pestilence, then raging in Ireland, over with them. Typhus mortality rates in Ireland and Britain soared, and so closely connected with the disease were the Irish in Britain that it was widely referred to as ‘Irish fever’. Much of what we know about this epidemic is based on a handful of studies focusing almost exclusively on major cities along the British west-coast. Moreover, there has been little attempt to understand the legacy of the episode on the Irish in Britain. Taking a national perspective, this article argues that the ‘Irish fever’ epidemic of 1847 spread far beyond the western port of entry, and that the epidemic, by entrenching the association of the Irish with deadly disease, contributed significantly to the difficulties Britain's Irish population faced in the 1850s.

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers.

Human responses to climate variation have a rich anthropological history. However, much less is known about how people living in small-scale societies perceive climate change, and what climate data are useful in predicting food production at a scale that affects daily lives. We use longitudinal ethnographic interviews and economic data to first ask what aspects of climate variation affect the agricultural cycle and food production for Yucatec Maya farmers. Sixty years of high-resolution meteorological data and harvest assessments are then used to detect the scale at which climate data predict good and bad crop yields, and to analyze long-term changes in climate variables critical to food production. We find that (a) only local, daily precipitation closely fits the climate pattern described by farmers. Other temporal (annual and monthly) scales miss key information about what farmers find important to successful harvests; (b) at both community- and municipal-levels, heavy late-season rains associated with tropical storms have the greatest negative impact on crop yields; and (c) in contrast to long-term patterns from regional and state data, local measures show an increase in rainfall during the late growing season, indicating that fine-grained data are needed to make accurate inferences about climate trends. Our findings highlight the importance to define climate variables at scales appropriate to human behavior. Course-grained annual, monthly, national, and state-level data tell us little about climate attributes pertinent to farmers and food production. However, high-resolution daily, local precipitation data do capture how climate variation shapes food production.

Efficiency of a mixed farming system in a marginal winter rainfall area of the Overberg, South Africa, with implications for thinking about sustainability

ABSTRACT This study presents a preliminary analysis of the productivity performance of a small group of mixed winter rainfall farms over the past decade. Results indicate that there has been no technical progress in the sector over the past decade and group members are falling further behind their own benchmark as time passes. Relative rankings have remained stable, with most of the group riding the peaks and troughs of good and bad years without breaking rank. There is clearly room for fresh thinking. Drought does not offer a simple explanation for the observed trends. This group’s total factor productivity is inversely correlated with farm size despite evidence that their technology is increasing returns-to-scale. This is difficult to explain. Woolled sheep seems to be the solution to drought, but too much land under planted pastures lowers overall efficiency. There is much more investigation to do, including to cast the net wider so that a more sophisticated efficiency model can be fitted. There was no information on heat stress or rainfall variability, or the date of adoption of conservation agriculture, which is known to be a good strategy against unreliable rainfall. We also could not model the effect of farmers’ skills and ambitions on their performance. The study’s main contribution is to debunk the myths that rainfall places an absolute limit on performance and that a larger scale of operation is always beneficial.

Front and Back Covers, Volume 36, Number 4. August 2020

Front and back cover caption, volume 36 issue 4Front coverBUSHFIRES IN AUSTRALIAThe exhausted firefighter emerged as a powerful symbolic figure in the bushfire crisis which brought widespread and unprecedented devastation to vast areas of land on the Australian continent in late 2019 and early 2020. In the front cover picture to this edition of AT, taken by the photojournalist Alex Ellinghausen, a sole firefighter stands as an iconic testament to the fortitude and commitment displayed by members of the volunteer forces who laboured in several states to save their rural communities from destruction. For their sterling efforts ‘in the line of fire’, the firefighters were celebrated as local heroes in the small towns and hamlets from which they were drawn. On a couple of occasions, fortuitously captured by itinerant television crews, this heroic status was magnified when firefighters forthrightly told visiting politicians, including the prime minister, that they were unwelcome and would be much better off elsewhere. In this issue, Adrian Peace argues that these firefighters were giving vent to a widespread sense of alienation from Australia's political elite, a feeling which was substantially compounded as notable cultural differences between local people and leading politicians came to the fore over the significance of the bushfires and the meaning to be attached to them. This cultural divide was expressed in a number of ways, but especially when addressing the extent to which climate change might have contributed to the exceptional duration, intensity and destructive capacity of the 2019–2020 megafires. Whilst leading figures within the federal government repeatedly minimized, or denied outright, the contribution that global warming might have made to these catastrophic developments, the likely part played by climate change remained uppermost in the minds of many local residents, including the firefighters who were their relatives, neighbours and friends.Back coverCOVID‐19 AMONG REINDEER HERDERSKira Khudi, during the nomadic migration of her herd through the gas deposit in Bovanenkovo, Yamal Peninsula.Yamal‐Nenets reindeer nomads in the Arctic tundra value their mobility. That is how they adapt to changing conditions in their natural and social environment. With large reindeer herds, it is only through the flexible use of their lands and regular adjustments to seasonal migration routes that the herders survive ‘bad years’ (veuvako po).However, the number of ‘bad years’ recently has posed a major challenge to their continued survival as nomads. Swift movement from endangered sites to safe pastures once helped to preserve the health and condition of animals and households. Sudden rain‐on‐snow events make grazing impossible and need to be avoided. Distancing from epidemic centres, including Covid‐19, anthrax and hoof‐rot disease has served to limit their impact.The intrusion of the gas industry into the herders’ domain is now curtailing their nomadic freedoms even more. The cumulative impact of disasters, epidemics and climate change, together with changing state resource governance is forcing herders to increasingly sedentarize, as their mitigation strategies are no longer a match for all these forces combined.In this issue, Stammler and Ivanova show how the Soviet persecution of shamans has led to a loss of spiritual confidence, which has proved fertile ground for conspiracy theories among herders. Shamans used to be consulted to diagnose disasters and how to respond to them, but local perceptions of disasters are now changing. Dialogue with the spirits used to be a source of Nenets self‐confidence, but in the absence of shamans, severe misfortunes are increasingly believed to be the work of superior, unknown and uncontrollable forces.

A warning cry from the Arctic

As records tumble, 2020 has already been a terrifyingly bad year for the Arctic – and there is more to come, Adam Vaughan reports

From past to future: understanding and accounting for recruitment variability of Australia’s redleg banana prawn (Penaeus indicus) fishery

Abstract Understanding recruitment variability in marine fisheries has benefits for the stock management and dependent fishers’ ability to plan their income. Here, we overview past and new research on the complex recruitment dynamics of redleg banana prawns Penaeus indicus in Australia’s Joseph Bonaparte Gulf to assess themes dating back to the time of Hjort and identify new challenges. During 2015 and 2016, redleg prawn catches and catch per unit effort decreased to anomalously low levels, suggesting a substantial decrease in prawn biomass. We hypothesized that low catches could be explained by temporary drops in sea level and rainfall potentially reducing the ability of postlarvae to reach their nursery ground. We contend that very bad prawn catch years may be predicted using two variables that are possible drivers of recruitment—the January Southern Oscillation Index and the combined January to February cumulative rainfall. However, due to challenges in verifying and defining such environmental relationships for inclusion in a stock assessment, we propose development of a harvest strategy framework to support management recommendations. Our study highlights the increasing role of anthropogenic climate change in exaggerating the impacts of environmental drivers on recruitment processes and the need to also focus on multidisciplinary research.