Bad Year Research Articles

The Shandean. Ed. Peter de Voogd. Vol. 30.

<i>The Shandean</i>. Ed. Peter de Voogd. Vol. 30.

Fishers’ knowledge on historical changes and conservation of Allis shad -Alosa alosa (Linnaeus, 1758) in Minho River, Iberian Peninsula

Diadromous allis shad A. alosa is a fish species of high socio-economic and cultural value along the Minho River, and is also susceptible to multiple anthropogenic threats. This study aimed to assess fishers’ knowledge on artisanal fisheries of allis shad, and therefore assist and contribute to its conservation in northern Portugal. Results showed a negative relationship between the number of fish caught on the best day of allis shad fishing and the catch year (R2 = 0.29; p = 0.04) and between the largest individual ever caught and the catch year (R2 = 0.42; p = 0.01). There was a positive relationship between the largest individual ever caught and fishing experience (R2 = 0.13; p = 0.04). Our findings showed a significant differences (F = 5.40; p = 0.01) between fishers’ perceptions (Decrease, Increase, and Unchanged) of allis shad catches regarding fishing experience. Differences in perceptions of allis shad fisheries among fishers of different experience categories suggest the occurrence of the shifting baselines syndrome (SBS). The best fishing years were mainly around between 1950 and 1970, and the worst years of fishing in the most recent decades (1990 and 2010s.) Local management activities had low approval by fishers (I = 0.39). We suggest that fishers and managers must establish common conservation goals through participatory management. Also, a joint and synchronized approach between Portuguese and Spanish local authorities is essential for the management and conservation of A. alosa in the international section of the Minho River.

Reason and Its Others in Coetzee's Jesus Novels

Reason and Its Others in Coetzee's Jesus Novels

Resilience of native amphibian communities following catastrophic drought: Evidence from a decade of regional-scale monitoring

The increasing frequency and severity of drought may exacerbate ongoing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought impacts. We synthesized a decade (2009–2019) of regional-scale amphibian monitoring data (2273 surveys, 233 ponds, and seven species) from across California's Bay Area and used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate trends and drivers of species occupancy. An extreme drought during the study period resulted in substantial habitat loss, with 51% of ponds drying in the worst year of drought, compared to <20% in pre-drought years. Nearly every species exhibited reduced breeding activity during the drought, with the occupancy of some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by >25%. Invasive fishes and bullfrogs were also associated with reduced amphibian occupancy, and these taxa were locally extirpated from numerous sites during drought, without subsequent recovery– suggesting that drought may present an opportunity to remove invaders. Despite a historic, multi-year drought, native amphibians rebounded quickly to pre-drought occupancy levels, demonstrating evidence of resilience. Permanent waterbodies supported higher persistence of native species during drought years than did temporary waterbodies, and we therefore highlight the value of hydroperiod diversity in promoting amphibian stability.

The Recent Evolution of Global Tourism: Study Case - Switzerland

Among other negative economic and health outcomes, the global tourism industry is one of the most affected areas by the recent pandemic. A recent estimation shows that USD 1.3 trillion were lost in revenues, in 2020 only – which represents more than 11 times the loss suffered during the 2009 global economic crisis. It is by far the most the worst year in tourism history. As a direct consequence, many jobs are at risk, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises, in countries where tourism is the main economic component, the situation is quite dramatic. In this paper, we will analyse what happened in world large regions in the sector, what the perspectives to recovery are, and what are the rebound expectations and consumer confidence. We will also investigate the specificity of the tourism situation in Switzerland, where since the beginnings of the pandemic, the big cities and tourist locations have suffered greatly from the absence of foreign tourists. The cities close to the airports showed the strongest decreases in attendance. In contrast, those which are traditionally very touristy were only slightly affected by the decline in the number of foreign visitors.

Variation in prescribed fire and bison grazing supports multiple bee nesting groups in tallgrass prairie

Fire and grazing are historic ecosystem drivers of tallgrass prairie and both are used for restoration management today. The effects of these drivers on animal taxa are still incompletely resolved, especially for wild bees, a growing conservation and restoration priority. Fire and grazing could affect wild bee communities through structural changes to nest site availability via changes to soil conditions, vegetative cover, and availability of plant stems. Here, we sought to determine how different bee nesting groups are affected by the combination of fire and bison grazing management strategies. We grouped bee species by nesting substrate (ground, stem/hole, large cavity) because we expect the availability of these substrates to vary with the application of prescribed fire and grazing. We collected bees in restored and remnant high‐quality tallgrass prairie and analyzed whether the proportion of each nesting group within the total bee community was predicted by fire and/or grazing. Ground‐nesting bees reached their greatest proportion in bee communities immediately after prescribed fire, but declined proportionally over time since the last burn. Stem‐/hole‐nesting bees reached their highest proportion in the bee community with infrequent fire (6‐year interval) and differed in their response to fire depending on the presence/absence of bison. Sampling year affected bee nesting groups and we found that nesting groups did not change in concert (i.e. different nesting groups had different good and bad years from each other). Our results show that spatiotemporal variation of prescribed fire and bison grazing is essential for conservation of multiple bee nesting groups.

The impact of environmental performance on stock prices in the green and innovative context

This study examines the impact of environmental performance on firms' stock prices, considering the moderating effect of the green and innovative environmental context by country. Renewable energy policies, green technologies, and foreign trade form this environmental context of interest for the reduction of carbon emissions. Using a sample of 2638 firm-year observations for the firms listed in the main stock index of 16 European countries over the period of 2005–2017, we find that environmental performance is value-relevant, except during the worst years of a crisis, when it is not significant. Two elements of the green technological framework, namely, renewable energy policies and the potential transmission effect of technology through foreign trade, are valued by investors as offsetting factors of the positive effect exerted by carbon performance on the firm's value. This is consistent with the slow and costly adoption of greener technologies. However, registered green patents appear to be a turning point, showing a significant positive effect on the relationship between firms' environmental performances and their market values. Again, the crisis period interferes with deepening the negative effect of renewable energy policies and cancelling out the effect of green patents and foreign trade. On one hand, our results highlight the market's role in making inefficiencies visible and showing the potential future losses of green and innovative policies; on the other hand, the hampering interference of crisis periods must be considered by policymakers.

ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, Июль 2021 года

Перевод охватывает основные главы публикации. Отдельные главы публикуются на языке оригинала (Английский). International travel largely on hold despite uptick in May 2021 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) dropped by 85% in January-May 2021 compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019, or 65% over 2020, as travel restrictions remained high due to the coronavirus pandemic. This follows an unprecedented drop of 73% in 2020, the worst year on record for international tourism This sharp decline represents a loss of some 147 million international arrivals compared to the same five months of 2020, or 460 million compared to 2019. By regions, Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the largest decline with a 95% drop in international arrivals in the first five months of 2021 over the same period in 2019. Europe (-85%) recorded the second largest decline in arrivals, followed by the Middle East (-83%) and Africa (-81%). The Americas (-72%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Despite the weak results, international tourism saw a minor uptick in May 2021 with arrivals declining by 82% (versus May 2019), after falling by 86% in April, as some destinations started to ease travel restrictions and consumer confidence rose slightly. After an estimated 64% plunge in international tourism receipts in 2020, destinations continued to report very weak revenues in the first five months of 2021, ranging from 50% to 90% declines compared to 2019. However, several countries recorded a small uptick in the month of May following a minor improvement in international arrivals. In terms of outbound travel among the top 20 source markets, Saudi Arabia (-42%) and Belgium (-46%) saw relatively better results in January-May 2021, as well as the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Switzerland, all recording 50% declines in international tourism expenditure compared to the same period in 2019. France is also worth noting, with -54% in expenditure compared to 2019. International travel is slowly picking up from very low levels, though the recovery remains fragile and uneven amid much uncertainty. Domestic travel is driving the recovery of tourism in several destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. Domestic air seat capacity in China and Russia has already exceeded pre-crisis levels. Along with the ongoing vaccination roll-out, the safe and responsible restart of tourism will continue to depend on a coordinated response among countries regarding travel restrictions, harmonized safety protocols and effective communication to help restore consumer confidence.

Baromètre OMT du tourisme mondial et annexe statistique, juillet 2021

Seuls les principaux chapitres de la publication ont été traduits. Le reste de la publication figure dans la langue originale (Anglais). International travel largely on hold despite uptick in May 2021 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) dropped by 85% in January-May 2021 compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019, or 65% over 2020, as travel restrictions remained high due to the coronavirus pandemic. This follows an unprecedented drop of 73% in 2020, the worst year on record for international tourism This sharp decline represents a loss of some 147 million international arrivals compared to the same five months of 2020, or 460 million compared to 2019. By regions, Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the largest decline with a 95% drop in international arrivals in the first five months of 2021 over the same period in 2019. Europe (-85%) recorded the second largest decline in arrivals, followed by the Middle East (-83%) and Africa (-81%). The Americas (-72%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Despite the weak results, international tourism saw a minor uptick in May 2021 with arrivals declining by 82% (versus May 2019), after falling by 86% in April, as some destinations started to ease travel restrictions and consumer confidence rose slightly. After an estimated 64% plunge in international tourism receipts in 2020, destinations continued to report very weak revenues in the first five months of 2021, ranging from 50% to 90% declines compared to 2019. However, several countries recorded a small uptick in the month of May following a minor improvement in international arrivals. In terms of outbound travel among the top 20 source markets, Saudi Arabia (-42%) and Belgium (-46%) saw relatively better results in January-May 2021, as well as the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Switzerland, all recording 50% declines in international tourism expenditure compared to the same period in 2019. France is also worth noting, with -54% in expenditure compared to 2019. International travel is slowly picking up from very low levels, though the recovery remains fragile and uneven amid much uncertainty. Domestic travel is driving the recovery of tourism in several destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. Domestic air seat capacity in China and Russia has already exceeded pre-crisis levels. Along with the ongoing vaccination roll-out, the safe and responsible restart of tourism will continue to depend on a coordinated response among countries regarding travel restrictions, harmonized safety protocols and effective communication to help restore consumer confidence.

Barómetro OMT del Turismo Mundial y anexo estadístico, Julio 2021

La traducción sólo cubre el anexo estadístico. Los otros capítulos se publican en el idioma original (inglés). International travel largely on hold despite uptick in May 2021 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) dropped by 85% in January-May 2021 compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019, or 65% over 2020, as travel restrictions remained high due to the coronavirus pandemic. This follows an unprecedented drop of 73% in 2020, the worst year on record for international tourism This sharp decline represents a loss of some 147 million international arrivals compared to the same five months of 2020, or 460 million compared to 2019. By regions, Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the largest decline with a 95% drop in international arrivals in the first five months of 2021 over the same period in 2019. Europe (-85%) recorded the second largest decline in arrivals, followed by the Middle East (-83%) and Africa (-81%). The Americas (-72%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Despite the weak results, international tourism saw a minor uptick in May 2021 with arrivals declining by 82% (versus May 2019), after falling by 86% in April, as some destinations started to ease travel restrictions and consumer confidence rose slightly. After an estimated 64% plunge in international tourism receipts in 2020, destinations continued to report very weak revenues in the first five months of 2021, ranging from 50% to 90% declines compared to 2019. However, several countries recorded a small uptick in the month of May following a minor improvement in international arrivals. In terms of outbound travel among the top 20 source markets, Saudi Arabia (-42%) and Belgium (-46%) saw relatively better results in January-May 2021, as well as the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Switzerland, all recording 50% declines in international tourism expenditure compared to the same period in 2019. France is also worth noting, with -54% in expenditure compared to 2019. International travel is slowly picking up from very low levels, though the recovery remains fragile and uneven amid much uncertainty. Domestic travel is driving the recovery of tourism in several destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. Domestic air seat capacity in China and Russia has already exceeded pre-crisis levels. Along with the ongoing vaccination roll-out, the safe and responsible restart of tourism will continue to depend on a coordinated response among countries regarding travel restrictions, harmonized safety protocols and effective communication to help restore consumer confidence.

The Influence of Social Media on Young Consumers’ Purchase Intention During Global Pandemic

The year 2020 was undoubtedly going down in history as one of the worst years ever due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Many countries around the world were forced to impose a total lockdown, and this situation occurred again in early June 2021 in Malaysia. Many countries were in their 2nd wave or 3rd wave of lockdown, which caused several restrictions such as movement control, the limit of travel or inter-states. Many businesses were affected. Some big corporations were forced to shut down their productions, lay off, and causing huge numbers of unemployment in the country. There were several news reported that Malaysia’s retails faced bad financial losses and even wave a ‘white flag’ campaign to strike for help from the public. However, instead of begging for help, retailers or businesses should adapt to a new channel and accepting to a more sophisticated computerized operation and diversify into electronic (e-retails) or mobile retails (m-retails) via social media. This study aims to study the causes of young consumer purchase intention using social media during the global pandemic. There are five main variables being studied. The five factors, such as perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, performance expectancy, interactivity, and intention to express empathy, were selected and analyzed using SPSS Software. This study concluded that perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, and interactivity have a significant relationship with young consumer purchase intention using social media, while performance expectancy and intention to express empathy have not significant relationship with young consumer purchase intention. This study benefits newly operate SMEs or existing SMEs as they can provide better marketing through social media in order to sustain their businesses.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, July 2021

International travel largely on hold despite uptick in May 2021. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) dropped by 85% in January-May 2021 compared to the same period of pre-pandemic year 2019, or 65% over 2020, as travel restrictions remained high due to the coronavirus pandemic. This follows an unprecedented drop of 73% in 2020, the worst year on record for international tourism This sharp decline represents a loss of some 147 million international arrivals compared to the same five months of 2020, or 460 million compared to 2019. By regions, Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the largest decline with a 95% drop in international arrivals in the first five months of 2021 over the same period in 2019. Europe (-85%) recorded the second largest decline in arrivals, followed by the Middle East (-83%) and Africa (-81%). The Americas (-72%) saw a comparatively smaller decrease. Despite the weak results, international tourism saw a minor uptick in May 2021 with arrivals declining by 82% (versus May 2019), after falling by 86% in April, as some destinations started to ease travel restrictions and consumer confidence rose slightly. After an estimated 64% plunge in international tourism receipts in 2020, destinations continued to report very weak revenues in the first five months of 2021, ranging from 50% to 90% declines compared to 2019. However, several countries recorded a small uptick in the month of May following a minor improvement in international arrivals. In terms of outbound travel among the top 20 source markets, Saudi Arabia (-42%) and Belgium (-46%) saw relatively better results in January-May 2021, as well as the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Switzerland, all recording 50% declines in international tourism expenditure compared to the same period in 2019. France is also worth noting, with -54% in expenditure compared to 2019. International travel is slowly picking up from very low levels, though the recovery remains fragile and uneven amid much uncertainty. Domestic travel is driving the recovery of tourism in several destinations, especially those with large domestic markets. Domestic air seat capacity in China and Russia has already exceeded pre-crisis levels. Along with the ongoing vaccination roll-out, the safe and responsible restart of tourism will continue to depend on a coordinated response among countries regarding travel restrictions, harmonized safety protocols and effective communication to help restore consumer confidence.

Restarting international travel will be messy but enabled by improved risk-based analyses

There is now abundant evidence that international travel has been a major driver of the COVID-19 pandemic and its prolonged duration [1-2]. Travel restrictions adopted, in an attempt to stem the spread of SARS-CoV-2, have impacted billions of lives and the functioning of whole societies. Alongside cancelled events large and small, disruptions to trade [3] and shuttered businesses, millions have become stranded or separated from family, friends and work [4]. The UNWTO describes 2020 as “the worst year on record for tourism,” with an estimated US$1.3 trillion loss in international expenditures [5].

Does government efficiency mitigate the effect of natural disasters on tourist arrivals?

ABSTRACT Global tourism suffered its worst year in 2020 due to the widespread of COVID-19, and tourism industry-related professionals are looking for efficient measures to help tourism recover. Government efficiency was mentioned as an important factor for inbound tourism; however, its mitigating effect on the performance of inbound tourism in the context of natural disasters has not been empirically researched. This study attempts to address the gap through the analysis of a panel data set of 158 countries from 2002 to 2018. The results illustrate the mitigating effect of government efficiency on the negative impact of natural disasters on inbound tourist arrivals. On one hand, government efficiency can be a pull factor for attracting inbound tourist arrivals in the condition of natural disasters; on the other hand, government efficiency can assist in reducing the negative impact of natural disasters on inbound tourist arrivals through its moderating effect. Based on the findings, we provide practical implications for destination marketing organizations and policymakers.

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, May 2021

Tourist numbers down 83% in Q1 2021 but confidence slowly rising. International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) dropped by 83% in the period January-March 2021 compared to 2020, as travel restrictions remained high and consumer confidence low due to the coronavirus pandemic. This follows an unprecedented drop of 73% in 2020, the worst year on record for international tourism. By regions, Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the largest declines with a 94% drop in international arrivals in the first quarter of 2021, compared to 2020. Europe recorded the second largest decline with -83%, followed by Africa (-81%), the Middle East (-78%) and the Americas (-71%). International tourism receipts plunged by US$ 930 billion in 2020, an estimated 64% drop in real terms (local currencies, constant prices) due to the slump in global travel. International visitors spent about US$ 536 billion in destinations last year, about one third of the amount spent in 2019 (US$ 1,466 billion). Industry confidence is slowly rising for the period May-August 2021 according to the latest survey of the UNWTO Panel of Experts. The pace of the vaccination rollout in some key source markets as well as policies to restart tourism safely, most notably the EU Digital Green Certificate, have boosted hopes for a rebound in some markets. However, uncertainty remains high due to the ongoing pandemic and surge of new variants, the travel restrictions still in place and the uneven rollout of vaccines. 60% of experts now point to a rebound in 2022, up from 50% in January 2021. The remaining 40% still see a potential rebound in 2021, mostly during the second half of the year, though fewer than in the January survey (50%). Nearly half of all experts see a return to 2019 levels in 2024 or later, while the percentage indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 has somewhat decreased (37%) when compared to the January survey (43%). Due to weaker-than-expected results in the first quarter of 2021, our scenarios for 2021 were revised downward. The first scenario points to a rebound in July and would result in a 40% increase in international arrivals in 2021 compared to 2020, though still 63% below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. The second scenario considers a rebound in the month of September and a 10% increase in arrivals compared to 2020, though a 75% decrease compared to 2019. Along with the continuation of the vaccination rollout, the safe and responsible restart of tourism will depend on a coordinated response among countries regarding travel restrictions, standardized safety protocols and effective communication.

The Journal of Neuroscience's 40th Anniversary: Looking Back, Looking Forward.

Some of us fortunate enough to have published a paper in The Journal of Neuroscience in its inaugural year (1981) have been asked to write a Progressions article addressing our views on the significance of the original work and how ideas about the topic of that work have evolved over the last 40 years. These questions cannot be effectively considered without placing them in the context of the incredible growth of the overall field of neuroscience over these last four decades. For openers, in 1981, the Nobel Prize was awarded to three neuroscience superstars: Roger Sperry, David Hubel, and Torsten Wiesel. Not a bad year to launch the Journal With this as a backdrop, I divide this Progressions article into two parts. First, I discuss our original (1981) paper describing classical conditioning in Aplysia californica, and place our results in the context of the state of the field at the time. Second, I fast forward to the present and consider some of remarkable progress in the broad field of learning and memory that has occurred in the last 40 years. Along the way, I also reflect briefly on some of the amazing advances, both technical and conceptual, that we in neuroscience have witnessed.

Are small and medium-size food industry firms profitable? Explaining differences in their performance: The case of the Valencia Region

The main aim of this study was to determine the factors that influenced profitability of companies involved in the Valencia food industry between 2006 and 2015. For this, macroeconomic, sector and company variables were the key elements used in the statistical analysis, together with their dependenceon the economic cycle in indicating the present state of the sector in the Valencian Region. The panel data was obtained from the sabi data base and combined with transverse data and time series. Economic and financial profitability are both influenced by certain common factors, especially the sales margin. The higher the margin the higher the profit, although this relationship also depends on where the business company&amp;nbsp;is located. Rotation of assets also contributes to raising profits in times of economic expansion. The Economic Crisis saw profits fall in 2009 and 2012, two of its worst years. Finally, differences were also found between large and small enterprises.

Parental care does not compensate for the effects of bad years on reproductive success of a vagile bird

AbstractLife history theory predicts that long‐lived animals trade off the costs of reproduction against individual survival. If the costs of reproduction are too high, animals should prioritize their own survival. During bad times, mobile animals may be able to compensate for local food shortages by travelling further to provision their offspring. But, whether inherent mobility alleviates individual fitness costs of this parental strategy is not known. We studied parental investment and breeding success of long‐lived, nomadic, migratory swift parrots Lathamus discolor over two successive years at the same site where food abundance went from locally low to high. We hypothesize that in a bad year, swift parrots should adjust their parental strategy by foregoing breeding altogether, producing smaller clutches/broods or reducing provisioning investment. Fewer swift parrots bred locally when food was scarce. In the bad year, clutch and brood sizes were smaller and nestlings were &gt;20 g lighter (approximately 28% of mean body mass) than in the good year. Compared with the good year, fathers spent longer foraging, less time at the nest and travelled further during provisioning trips in the bad year. Although limited to only 2 years, our results suggest that mobile species may attempt to mitigate the effects of a bad year on their reproductive success by rearing fewer offspring and investing more in provisioning behaviour, but this strategy may not necessarily compensate for environmental conditions.

MEDIA POLICIES OF THE STATE IN THE TIME OF COVID-19

The year 2020 was bad but it was not the worst year in human history. From 1348’s Plague, to 1644’s collapse of Ming Dynasty and Thirty Years War of Europe, to 1919’s Spanish Flu, to 1944’s Holocaust and World War II, we have witnessed worse and have lost millions more (Berhnhardt, 2021).

Game Theory of Data-selling Ransomware

We are experiencing the worst years of ransomware attacks with continuing news reports on high-profile ransomware attacks on organizations such as hospitals, schools, government agencies and private businesses. Recently a few ransomware attackers have gone beyond simply encrypting files and waiting for ransom. They threaten to release the data if the victims refuse their ransom request. In this paper, we propose a hypothetical new revenue model for the ransomware, i.e., selling the stolen data rather than publishing the data for free. Through a game-theoretical analysis between attackers and victims, we contribute a novel model to understand the critical decision variables for the proposed data-selling ransomware (which we refer as "ransomware 2.0") that sells data as well as demands ransom. We compare the role of reputation and the profitability of the data-selling ransomware with traditional ransomware ("ransomware 1.0") that demands ransom only and the data-threat ransomware ("ransomware 1.5") that demands ransom with the threat of releasing data for no compliance. Both theoretical modeling and simulation studies suggest that in general both ransomware 2.0 and 1.5 are more profitable than ransomware 1.0, while ransomware 2.0 is always more profitable than ransomware 1.5. Notably, common defensive measures that may work to eliminate the financial incentives of ransomware 1.0 may not work on ransomware 2.0, in particular the data backup practice and the never-pay-ransom strategy. Our findings also suggest that the uncertainties created by this new revenue model may affect attackers' reputation and users' willingness-to-pay, therefore, ransomware 2.0 may not always increase the profitability of attackers. Another finding of the study suggests that reputation maximization is critical in ransomware 1.0 and 1.5, but not in ransomware 2.0, where attackers could manipulate reputation for profit maximization.