Background Mortality Research Articles

Pros and cons for use of statins in people with coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19)

Background and aimsMorbidity and mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is higher among people with diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Statins are used in the majority of people with DM and CVD. This mini-review discusses the current understanding of benefit-risk ratio of use of statins in COVID-19. MethodsWe searched PubMed database using specific keywords related to our aims till June 12, 2020. Full text of relevant articles published in English language were retrieved and reviewed. ResultsStatins, with their immunomodulatory, anti-inflammatory, anti-thrombotic, and anti-oxidant properties, have the potential to reduce severity of lung injury in, and mortality from, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) infections. Statin-induced upregulation of angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) has the potential to reduce lung injury from excess angiotensin II. By disrupting lipid rafts, statins have the potential to reduce viral entry into cells. However, benefit-risk ratio of its complex interaction with MYD88 gene expression on outcomes in COVID-19, and the putative role of low serum LDL cholesterol in increasing severity of SARS-CoV2 infection need further clarification. ConclusionsPeople with COVID-19, who are already on statins for an underlying co-morbid condition, should continue on it unless there are specific contraindications. De-novo use of statins in people with COVID-19 with no underlying co-morbidity might be beneficial but awaits substantiation in clinical trials; till that time, de novo use of statins in COVID 19 should be limited to a clinical trial setting.

Review of the evidence on bee background mortality

Review of the evidence on bee background mortality

Size- and stage-dependence in cause-specific mortality of migratory brown trout.

Evidence-based management of natural populations under strong human influence frequently requires not only estimates of survival but also knowledge about how much mortality is due to anthropogenic vs. natural causes. This is the case particularly when individuals vary in their vulnerability to different causes of mortality due to traits, life history stages, or locations. Here, we estimated harvest and background (other cause) mortality of landlocked migratory salmonids over half a century. In doing so, we quantified among-individual variation in vulnerability to cause-specific mortality resulting from differences in body size and spawning location relative to a hydropower dam. We constructed a multistate mark-recapture model to estimate harvest and background mortality hazard rates as functions of a discrete state (spawning location) and an individual time-varying covariate (body size). We further accounted for among-year variation in mortality and migratory behaviour and fit the model to a unique 50-year time series of mark-recapture-recovery data on brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Norway. Harvest mortality was highest for intermediate-sized trout, and outweighed background mortality for most of the observed size range. Background mortality decreased with body size for trout spawning above the dam and increased for those spawning below. All vital rates varied substantially over time, but a trend was evident only in estimates of fishers' reporting rate, which decreased from over 50% to less than 10% throughout the study period. We highlight the importance of body size for cause-specific mortality and demonstrate how this can be estimated using a novel hazard rate parameterization for mark-recapture models. Our approach allows estimating effects of individual traits and environment on cause-specific mortality without confounding, and provides an intuitive way to estimate temporal patterns within and correlation among different mortality sources.

Mortality and predictors of survival in patients with recent ventricular septal rupture.

Ventricular septal rupture (VSR) is a rare but fatal complication after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, the mortality in patients with recent VSR and appropriate timing of surgical repair have not been clarified. To examine the background characteristics and mortality of VSR patients as well as the usefulness and appropriate timing of surgery in this patient cohort. Among 3,947 consecutive patients with AMI at our hospital, 39 patients diagnosed with VSR from 2002 to 2020 were included in the analysis. All patients underwent transthoracic echocardiography to confirm VSR on admission. Coronary angiography (CAG) and measurement of pulmonary-systemic flow ratio were performed before emergent surgery. The use of mechanical support devices before or after procedures was considered for all patients who underwent CAG. Basically, we performed emergent or urgent operations to patients who were in a shock state or who needed mechanical support. The final decision of the timing of the operation was made by the cardiac team. Patients' mean age was 76.3years, and 33.3% of them were males. Most culprit lesions were located in the left anterior ascending artery (81.3%). The mean pulmonary-systemic flow ratio after VSR onset was 3.07 ± 1.98. On admission, 48.7% of patients were in a shock state. Surgical repair was possible in 28 patients at a median of 1day after admission, with a mortality rate of 25%. Among all patients, the mortality rate was 43.6%. Survivors were significantly younger (71.3 ± 11.3 vs. 82.7 ± 6.2years, p < 0.01), had higher mean arterial blood pressure (75.6 ± 14.4 vs. 62.8 ± 16.2mmHg, p = 0.0496) and lower ejection fraction (44.3 ± 11.7% vs. 54.8 ± 7.9%, p = 0.04), and underwent surgical repair more frequently (95.5% vs. 41.2%, p < 0.01) than the non-survivors. In multivariate analysis, younger age (odds ratio [OR] 1.18 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.38, p = 0.04) and surgical repair (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.00-0.73, p = 0.03) were significant predictors of survival. In surgical repair cases, time from admission to operation did not differ significantly between survivors and non-survivors. Surgical repair and younger age are predictors of survival in patients with recent VSR, but the timing of surgery was not.

Prediction of bifurcations by varying critical parameters of COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 is a recent strong challenge for the world. In this paper, an epidemiology model is investigated as a model for the development of COVID-19. The propagation of COVID-19 through various sub-groups of society is studied. Some critical parameters, such as the background of mortality without considering the disease state and the speed of moving people from infected to resistance, affect the conditions of society. In this paper, early warning indicators are used to predict the bifurcation points in the system. In the interaction of various sub-groups of society, each sub-group can have various parameters. Six cases of the sub-groups interactions are studied. By coupling these sub-groups, various dynamics of the whole society are investigated.

Classification of heart sound signals using a novel deep WaveNet model

Background and objectivesThe high mortality rate and increasing prevalence of heart valve diseases globally warrant the need for rapid and accurate diagnosis of such diseases. Phonocardiogram (PCG) signals are used in this study due to the low cost of obtaining the signals. This study classifies five types of heart sounds, namely normal, aortic stenosis, mitral valve prolapse, mitral stenosis, and mitral regurgitation. MethodsWe have proposed a novel in-house developed deep WaveNet model for automated classification of five types of heart sounds. The model is developed using a total of 1000 PCG recordings belonging to five classes with 200 recordings in each class. ResultsWe have achieved a training accuracy of 97% for the classification of heart sounds into five classes. The highest classification accuracy of 98.20% was achieved for the normal class. The developed model was validated with a 10-fold cross-validation, thus affirming its robustness. ConclusionThe study results clearly indicate that the developed model is able to classify five types of heart sounds accurately. The developed system can be used by cardiologists to aid in the detection of heart valve diseases in patients.

Distinguishing discard mortality from natural mortality in field experiments based on electronic tagging

Improvements in electronic tag technology have enhanced the ability to monitor the post-release fate of fish and estimate discard mortality rates (DM) under real-world conditions. However, correctly estimating DM requires disentangling the influence of capture-related mortality from natural (background) mortality (M), particularly when M rates are elevated. To accomplish this, many published studies have used an ad hoc and largely arbitrary approach, assuming that all mortality occurring during a finite, non-standard, pre-defined period following release is strictly DM, and all mortality occurring after this period is M. This approach may lead to biased estimates of DM, which we illustrate using a simulation. Here we extend an existing parametric survival model to independently estimate DM and M from electronic tagging data generated by two DM experiments conducted on southern bluefin (Thunnus maccoyii) and yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) tuna, species experiencing contrasting levels of M. In both cases, predation following release was an important cause of mortality that may have been facilitated by capture and discarding, and therefore part of DM or the DM experiment, or may have been natural. Using a multi-model approach based on model fit and biological plausibility, we consider different assumptions for these mortality processes and attempt to account for experimental (tag-induced) mortality. Despite the modest sample sizes of the case studies, we show how our approach can be used to provide bounds on the plausible magnitude of DM in support of possible subsequent fishery management actions such as the imposition of size limits or catch retention policies.

SO061SEX DIFFERENCES IN MORTALITY AMONG PEOPLE WITH END-STAGE KIDNEY DISEASE: DO WOMEN ALWAYS LIVE LONGER?

Abstract Background and Aims Female life expectancies consistently exceed males in the general population. Yet, this survival advantage may not persist in the presence of a chronic disease due to sex-based differences or healthcare inequities. We aimed to explore sex differences in survival among people with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) compared to the general population. Method We included the entire ESKD population in Australia, 1980-2013 and New Zealand, 1988-2012 from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry. These were linked to national death registers to ascertain deaths and their causes. We estimated relative measures of survival, including standardized mortality ratios (SMR), cumulative relative survival and expected life years lost, using general population data (adjusting for country, age, sex and calendar year) to account for background mortality. Results Of the 60,823 ESKD patients, there were 25,042 females (41%) and 35,781 males (59%). Overall 34,417 deaths occurred over the 368,719 person-years of follow-up where a similar proportion of females (57%) and males (56%) died. While mortality sex differences within the ESKD population were minor, once compared to the general population female ESKD patients had greater excess deaths, worse relative survival and greater life years lost compared to male ESKD patients. Female ESKD patients had 12 times (SMR:11.5; 95%CI:11.3-11.7) and males had 7 times (SMR:6.7; 95%CI:6.7-6.8) the expected deaths, with the greatest sex disparity among younger ages and from cardiovascular disease. Relative survival was consistently lower in females (0.57, 95%CI:0.57-0.58 in males vs 0.54, 95%CI:0.54-0.55 in females at 5 years), where the excess mortality was 9% higher (95%CI:7-12%) in female ESKD patients (Fig 1A), adjusting for year and age. The average life years lost for female ESKD patients was 4-5 years greater than male ESKD patients (Average life years lost 25.9 years, 95%CI:25.1-26.7 in males and 31.4 years, 95%CI:30.5-32.1 in females aged 15 years at ESKD) (Fig 1B). Kidney transplantation reduced the sex differences in excess mortality, with similar relative survival (p=0.42; Fig 1C) and average life years lost reduced to 3-4 years for females (Fig 1D). Conclusion The impact of ESKD is more profound for women than men with greater excess mortality, however kidney transplantation attenuates these differences. Our findings show that chronic diseases and sex can compound to produce worse outcomes where women lose their survival advantage in the presence of ESKD.

The potential cost-effectiveness of a risk-based pancreatic cancer screening strategy in new-onset diabetes.

7017 Background: There are no established methods for pancreatic cancer (PC) screening, but the National Cancer Institute and the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN) are investigating risk-based screening strategies in new-onset diabetes (NOD)—a group with elevated PC risk. Preliminary estimates of the cost-effectiveness of these strategies can provide insights about potential value and inform supplemental data collection. Using data from the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (ENDPAC) risk model validation study, we assessed the potential value of CT screening for PC in those determined to be at elevated PC risk, as is being done in a planned PanCAN Early Detection Initiative (EDI) trial. Methods: We created an integrated decision tree and Markov state-transition model to assess the cost-effectiveness of screening those age ≥50 and with NOD for PC using CT imaging vs. no screening. PC prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity were derived from the ENDPAC validation study. PC stage distribution in the no screening strategy and PC survival were derived from SEER. Background mortality for diabetics, screening and cancer care expenditure, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. The base case assumed 40% of screen-detected PC cases were resectable, and a threshold analysis explored the fraction required for screening to be &lt;$100,000 per QALY gained. Life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs were tracked over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. Results are presented in 2019 USD, and we took a U.S. payer perspective. Results: In the base case, screening resulted in 0.0055 more LYs, 0.0045 more QALYs, and $305 in additional expenditure for a cost per QALY gained of $68,059 (Table). Among PC cases, screening resulted in 0.67 more LYs, 0.55 more QALYs, and $22,691 in additional expenditure. In probabilistic analyses, screening resulted in a cost per QALY gained of &lt;$50,000 and &lt;$100,000 in 34% and 99% of simulations, respectively. In the threshold analysis, &gt;25% of screen-detected cases needed to be resectable for the cost per QALY gained with screening to be &lt;$100,000. Conclusions: We found that risk-based pancreatic cancer screening in NOD is likely to be cost-effective in the U.S. if even a modest fraction (&gt;25%) of screen-detected cases are resectable. Future studies should reassess the value of this intervention once PanCAN EDI data become available. [Table: see text]

Analysis of mortality in patients with heart failure after de-compen-sation during long-term follow-up in specialized medical care and in real clinical practice

Background Mortality from chronic heart failure (CHF) remains high and entails serious demographic losses worldwide. The most vulnerable group is patients after acute decompensated HF (ADHF) who have a high risk of unfavorable outcome.Aim To analyze risks of all-cause death (ACD), cardiovascular death (CVD), and death from recurrent ADHF in CHF patients during two years following ADHF in long-term follow-up with specialized medical care and in real-life clinical practice.Material and methods The study successively included 942 CHF patients after ADHF. 510 patients continued out-patient treatment in a specialized CHF treatment center (CHFTC) (group 1) and 432 patients refused of the management in the CHFTC and were managed in out-patient clinics at the place of patient's residence (group 2). Causes of death were determined based on inpatient hospital records, postmortem reports, or outpatient medical records. Cases of ACD, CVD, death from ADHF, and a composite index (CVD and death from ADHF) were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed with the software package Statistica 7.0 for Windows, SPSS, and statistical package R.Results Patients of group 2 were older, more frequently had functional class (FC) III CHF and less frequently FC I CHF compared to group 1. Women and patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF) prevailed in both groups. Results of the Cox proportional hazards model for ACD, CVD, death from ADHF, and the composite mortality index showed that belonging to group 2 was an independent predictor for increased risk of death (р&lt;0.001). An increase in CCS score by 1 also increased the risk of death (р&lt;0.001). Baseline CHF FC and LV EF did not influence the mortality in any model. Female gender and a higher value of 6-min walk test (6MW) independently decreased the risk of all outcomes except for CVD. An increase in systolic BP by 10 mm Hg reduced risk of all fatal outcomes. At two years of follow-up in groups 2 and 1, ACD was 29.9 % and 10.2 %, (OR, 3.7; 95 % CI: 2.6-5.3; p &lt;0.001), CVD was 10.4 % and 1.9 % (OR, 5.9; 95 % CI: 2.8-12.4; p&lt;0.001), death from ADHF was 18.1 % and 6.0 % (OR, 3.5; 95 % CI: 2.2-5.5; p&lt;0.001), and the composite mortality index was 25.2 % and 7.7 % (OR, 4.1; 95 % CI: 2.7-6.1; р&lt;0.001). Analysis of all outcomes by follow-up period (3 and 6 months and 1 and 2 years) showed that the difference between groups 2 and 1 in risks of any fatal outcome was maximal during the first 6 months.Conclusion The follow-up in the system of specialized medical care reduces risks of ACD, CVD, and death from ADHF. The first 6 months following discharge from the hospital was a vulnerability period for patients after ADHF. The CCS score impaired the prognosis whereas baseline LV EF and CHF FC did not influence the long-term prognosis after ADHF. Protective factors included female gender and higher values of 6MW and systolic BP.

Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study

SummaryBackgroundThe medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease.MethodsIn this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK–CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation.FindingsWe included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41–4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0.InterpretationWe provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality.FundingNational Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK.

High Rates of Recurrent Tuberculosis Disease: A Population-level Cohort Study.

BackgroundRetreatment tuberculosis (TB) disease is common in high-prevalence settings. The risk of repeated episodes of recurrent TB is unknown. We calculated the rate of recurrent TB per subsequent episode by matching individual treatment episodes over a period of 13 years.MethodsAll recorded TB episodes in Cape Town between 2003 and 2016 were matched by probabilistic linkage of personal identifiers. Among individuals with a first episode notified in Cape Town and who completed their prior treatment successfully we estimated the recurrence rate stratified by subsequent episode and HIV status. We adjusted person-time to background mortality by age, sex, and HIV status.ResultsA total of 292 915 TB episodes among 263 848 individuals were included. The rate of recurrent TB was 16.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 16.2–16.6), and increased per subsequent episode (8.4-fold increase, from 14.6 to 122.7 per 1000 from episode 2 to 6, respectively). These increases were similar stratified by HIV status. Rates among HIV positives were higher than among HIV negatives for episodes 2 and 3 (2- and 1.5-fold higher, respectively), and the same thereafter.ConclusionsTB recurrence rates were high and increased per subsequent episode, independent of HIV status. This suggests that HIV infection is insufficient to explain the high burden of recurrence; it is more likely due to a high annual risk of infection combined with an increased risk of infection or progression to disease associated with a previous TB episode. The very high recurrence rates would justify increased TB surveillance of patients with >1 episode.

Pulmonary Nodules/Lung Cancer Comprehensive Management Mode: Design and Application

背景与目的早期筛查是有效降低肺癌死亡率的重要方式, 然而我国尚缺乏统一、有效的肺癌早期筛查标准与手段。本研究基于四川大学华西医院构建的肺结节/肺癌患者全程管理平台, 将肺结节早期筛查纳入肺癌规范诊疗体系, 以期实现提升肺癌患者生存率。方法建立三大研究队列：健康人群筛查队列、肺结节患者队列、肺癌患者队列, 系统、持续收集、分析各队列人群临床诊疗相关大数据。初步计划对肺结节早期筛查效果进行验证。结果该平台初步以2015年1月1日-2019年12月31日华西医院40岁以上职工2, 836人作为实施对象, 共诊断66例肺癌, 均经外科手术切除确诊为早期肺癌65例, 1例肺癌伴脑转移。结论肺结节/肺癌患者全程管理项目可实现肺结节高效筛查、随访与诊疗, 未来全程管理模式将全面覆盖华西医疗系统, 发挥区域带动作用。

Costs and outcomes of "intermediate" vs "minimal" care for youth-onset type 1 diabetes in six countries.

Data are needed to demonstrate that providing an "intermediate" level of type 1 diabetes (T1D) care is cost-effective compared to "minimal" care in less-resourced countries. We studied these care scenarios in six countries. We modeled the complications/costs/mortality/healthy life years (HLYs) associated with "intermediate" care including two blood glucose tests/day (mean HbA1c 9.0% [75 mmol/mol]) in three lower-gross domestic product (GDP) countries (Mali, Tanzania, Pakistan), or three tests/day (mean HbA1c 8.5% [69 mmol/mol]) in three higher-GDP countries (Bolivia, Sri Lanka, Azerbaijan); and compared findings to "minimal" care (mean HbA1c 12.5% [113 mmol/mol]). A discrete time Markov illness-death model with age and calendar-year-dependent transition probabilities was developed, with inputs of 30 years of complications and Standardized Mortality Rate data from the youth cohort in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study, background mortality, and costs determined from international and local prices. Cumulative 30 years incidences of complications were much lower for "intermediate care" than "minimal care", for example, for renal failure incidence was 68.1% (HbA1c 12.5%) compared to 3.9% (9%) and 2.4% (8.5%). For Mali, Tanzania, Pakistan, Bolivia, Sri Lanka, and Azerbaijan, 30 years survival was 50.1%/52.7%/76.7%/72.5%/82.8%/89.2% for "intermediate" and 8.5%/10.1%/39.4%/25.8%/45.5%/62.1% for "minimal" care, respectively. The cost of a HLY gained as a % GDP/capita was 141.1%/110.0%/52.3%/41.8%/17.0%/15.6%, respectively. Marked reductions in complications rates and mortality are achievable with "intermediate" T1D care achieving mean clinic HbA1c of 8.5% to 9% (69-75 mmol/mol). This is also "very cost-effective" in four of six countries according to the WHO "Fair Choices" approach which costs HLYs gained against GDP/capita.

Full outline of unresponsiveness score as a predictor of outcomes in critically ill pediatric patients

Background Mortality predictions are very important for improving service quality in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). The full outline of unresponsiveness (FOUR) is a new coma scale and is considered capable of predicting mortality and outcome.&#x0D; Objective To assess the ability of FOUR scores to predict outcomes of critically ill patients in the PICU.&#x0D; Methods This prospective cohort study included children aged 1 months - 18 years who were admitted to the PICU. Subjects were assessed by FOUR, grouped into score &lt; 9 or score &gt;9, and followed until outcomes were obtained. Bivariate analysis to assess the risk of death was made by cross-tabulation and the strength of the association in the form of risk ratio by Chi-square test. Multivariate analysis was done by logistic regression test.&#x0D; Results Of 94 subjects, 47 had FOUR scores ≤9 and 47 subjects had FOUR &gt;9. Bivariate analysis revealed that PICU patients with FOUR score ≤9 had a higher risk of death than those with FOUR score &gt;9 (RR 12.5; 95%CI 3.1 to 49.8; P&lt;0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that FOUR score, length of stay ≤7 days, and non-surgical disease significantly increased the risk of mortality in PICU patients (by 42.8 times, 8.9 times, and 5.9 times, respectively).&#x0D; Conclusion The FOUR scores have good ability to predict the outcomes of critically ill pediatric patients. A FOUR score ≤9 at the beginning of treatment is significantly associated with the outcome of mortality during treatment in the PICU.

Full outline of unresponsiveness score as a predictor of outcomes in critically ill pediatric patients

Background Mortality predictions are very important for improving service quality in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). The full outline of unresponsiveness (FOUR) is a new coma scale and is considered capable of predicting mortality and outcome.&#x0D; Objective To assess the ability of FOUR scores to predict outcomes of critically ill patients in the PICU.&#x0D; Methods This prospective cohort study included children aged 1 months - 18 years who were admitted to the PICU. Subjects were assessed by FOUR, grouped into score &lt; 9 or score &gt;9, and followed until outcomes were obtained. Bivariate analysis to assess the risk of death was made by cross-tabulation and the strength of the association in the form of risk ratio by Chi-square test. Multivariate analysis was done by logistic regression test.&#x0D; Results Of 94 subjects, 47 had FOUR scores ≤9 and 47 subjects had FOUR &gt;9. Bivariate analysis revealed that PICU patients with FOUR score ≤9 had a higher risk of death than those with FOUR score &gt;9 (RR 12.5; 95%CI 3.1 to 49.8; P&lt;0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that FOUR score, length of stay ≤7 days, and non-surgical disease significantly increased the risk of mortality in PICU patients (by 42.8 times, 8.9 times, and 5.9 times, respectively).&#x0D; Conclusion The FOUR scores have good ability to predict the outcomes of critically ill pediatric patients. A FOUR score ≤9 at the beginning of treatment is significantly associated with the outcome of mortality during treatment in the PICU.

A methodology for investigating the impact of medical countermeasures on the risk of exposure induced death

The space radiation environment is composed of ionizing particles that may pose health risks to crew members during Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and deep space missions. NASA has established astronaut career radiation limits for cancer of 3% Risk of Exposure Induced Death (REID) at the 95% confidence level. The REID is the increased lifetime risk of death from cancer due to radiation exposure in comparison to an unexposed background population and has been traditionally mitigated by passive shielding design concepts and limiting safe days in space. Additional reduction in radiation exposure risk may be achieved with Medical Countermeasures (MCM). Recent meta-analyses have demonstrated the efficacy of aspirin in the reduction of the background colorectal cancer incidence and mortality rates for specific cohorts. Additional studies of warfarin in patients greater than 50 years of age have indicated statistically significant decreases in stomach, bladder, brain, prostate, and lung cancer incidence as compared to control groups. While ultimate selection of suitable countermeasures will be the responsibility of flight surgeons, this paper presents a general methodology for incorporating MCM into the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk model and includes modifications of the background mortality rates (hazard rates) and the radiation risk coefficients to numerically quantify the benefits of MCM. As examples of the method, aspirin and warfarin will be employed as MCM in a sensitivity analysis to compute the REID for astronauts embarking on a one-year deep space mission scenario.

Sun-Protective Behaviors: An Educational Intervention With Hospital Staff Aimed at Skin Cancer Prevention in Children.

Melanoma incidence and mortality rates are predicted to steadily increase. Sun protection is important during early development because of the potential for overexposure to ultraviolet radiation while outdoors. The purpose of this project was to design, implement, and evaluate an educational intervention provided to healthcare professionals (HCPs) with the intention of influencing the behaviors of child populations served. The project evaluated HCPs' baseline knowledge about sun-protective behaviors, their level of knowledge regarding sun-protective behaviors postintervention, their intent to change behavior, and the feasibility of implementing behavior change within the organization. Pre- to post-test knowledge significantly increased. All participants reported that they would encourage children's sunscreen usage, and 98% reported that they would support the behavior change; however, 35% indicated likeliness that they would personally use sunscreen or sun-protection methods.

Life Expectancy of Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer Over 3 Decades

Advances in childhood and adolescent cancer treatment have been associated with increased rates of cure during the past 3 decades; however, improvement in adult life expectancy for these individuals has not yet been reported. To project long-term survival and assess whether life expectancy will improve among adult survivors of childhood cancer who were treated in more recent decades. A microsimulation model of competing mortality risks was developed using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study on 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1970 and 1999. The model included (1) late recurrence, (2) treatment-related late effects (health-related [subsequent cancers, cardiac events, pulmonary conditions, and other] and external causes), and (3) US background mortality rates. Treatment subgroups (no treatment or surgery only, chemotherapy alone, radiotherapy alone, and radiotherapy with chemotherapy) and individuals with acute lymphoblastic leukemia during childhood by era (1970-1979, 1980-1989, and 1990-1999). Conditional life expectancy (defined as the number of years a 5-year survivor can expect to live), cumulative cause-specific mortality risk, and 10-year mortality risks conditional on attaining ages of 30, 40, 50, and 60 years. Among the hypothetical cohort of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer representative of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study participants (44% female and 56% male; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 7.3 [5.6] years), conditional life expectancy was 48.5 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 47.6-49.6 years) for 5-year survivors diagnosed in 1970-1979, 53.7 years (95% UI, 52.6-54.7 years) for those diagnosed in 1980-1989, and 57.1 years (95% UI, 55.9-58.1 years) for those diagnosed in 1990-1999. Compared with individuals without a history of cancer, these results represented a gap in life expectancy of 25% (95% UI, 24%-27%) (16.5 years [95% UI, 15.5-17.5 years]) for those diagnosed in 1970-1979, 19% (95% UI, 17%-20%) (12.3 years [95% UI, 11.3-13.4 years]) for those diagnosed in 1980-1989, and 14% (95% UI, 13%-16%) (9.2 years [95% UI, 8.3-10.4 years]) for those diagnosed in 1990-1999. During the 3 decades, the proportion of survivors treated with chemotherapy alone increased (from 18% in 1970-1979 to 54% in 1990-1999), and the life expectancy gap in this chemotherapy-alone group decreased from 11.0 years (95% UI, 9.0-13.1 years) to 6.0 years (95% UI, 4.5-7.6 years). In contrast, during the same time frame, only modest improvements in the gap in life expectancy were projected for survivors treated with radiotherapy (21.0 years [95% UI, 18.5-23.2 years] to 17.6 years [95% UI, 14.2-21.2 years]) or with radiotherapy and chemotherapy (17.9 years [95% UI, 16.7-19.2 years] to 14.8 years [95% UI, 13.1-16.7 years]). For the largest group of survivors by diagnosis-those with acute lymphoblastic leukemia-the gap in life expectancy decreased from 14.7 years (95% UI, 12.8-16.5 years) in 1970-1979 to 8.0 years (95% UI, 6.2-9.7 years). Evolving treatment approaches are projected to be associated with improved life expectancy after treatment for pediatric cancer, in particular among those who received chemotherapy alone for their childhood cancer diagnosis. Despite improvements, survivors remain at risk for shorter lifespans, especially when radiotherapy was included as part of their childhood cancer treatment.

Real-world cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban and apixaban vs VKA in stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the UK

ABSTRACT Background Morbidity and mortality associated with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) imposes a substantial economic burden on the UK healthcare system. Objectives An existing Markov model was adapted to assess the real-world cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban and apixaban, each compared with a vitamin K antagonist (VKA), for stroke prevention in patients with NVAF from the National Health Service (NHS) and personal and social services (PSS) perspective. Methods The model considered a cycle length of 3 months over a lifetime horizon. All inputs were drawn from real-world evidence (RWE): baseline patient characteristics, clinical event and persistence rates, treatment effect (meta-analysis of RWE studies), utility values and resource use. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year was £14,437 for rivaroxaban, and £20,101 for apixaban, compared with VKA. The probabilities to be cost-effective compared with VKA were 90% and 81%, respectively for rivaroxaban and apixaban, considering a £20,000 threshold. In both comparisons, the results were most sensitive to clinical event rates. Conclusions These results suggest that rivaroxaban and apixaban are cost-effective vs VKA, based on RWE, considering a £20,000 threshold, from the NHS and PSS perspective in the UK for stroke prevention in patients with NVAF. This economic evaluation may provide valuable information for decision-makers, in a context where RWE is more accessible and its value more acknowledged.