Prediction of bifurcations by varying critical parameters of COVID-19

Fahimeh Nazarimehr,Tomasz Kapitaniak,Viet-Thanh Pham

doi:10.1007/s11071-020-05749-6

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 is a recent strong challenge for the world. In this paper, an epidemiology model is investigated as a model for the development of COVID-19. The propagation of COVID-19 through various sub-groups of society is studied. Some critical parameters, such as the background of mortality without considering the disease state and the speed of moving people from infected to resistance, affect the conditions of society. In this paper, early warning indicators are used to predict the bifurcation points in the system. In the interaction of various sub-groups of society, each sub-group can have various parameters. Six cases of the sub-groups interactions are studied. By coupling these sub-groups, various dynamics of the whole society are investigated.

Highlights

Many countries are dealing with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Various methods have been used in the prediction of bifurcation points
Some of the wellknown indicators are autocorrelation at lag-1 and variance [22]. They bear some issues in predicting bifurcations in more complex dynamics

Summary

Introduction

Many countries are dealing with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). COVID-19 is a dangerous disease with many death cases in many countries [1, 2]. The study of epidemic outbreak in infectious disease is an interesting topic. Many studies have been done in the modeling of COVID-19 [12]. Predicting bifurcation points of the dynamical disease are important [18, 19]. Various methods have been used in the prediction of bifurcation points. Some of the wellknown indicators are autocorrelation at lag-1 and variance [22] They bear some issues in predicting bifurcations in more complex dynamics. A new method has been introduced to improve the conventional indicators [20] Lyapunov exponent is another interesting predictor of bifurcation points [23, 24]. Various dynamics of the SEIR system, as a model for the development of COVID-19, are investigated. The interaction of five cities is studied with various connections and parameters to show the effect of traveling in the outbreak of the disease

Studied model

Dynamical properties

Conclusion

Compliance with ethical standards