Average Price Research Articles

An adaptive dual-level reinforcement learning approach for optimal trade execution

The purpose of this research is to devise a tactic that can closely track the daily cumulative volume-weighted average price (VWAP) using reinforcement learning while minimizing the deviation from the VWAP. Previous studies often choose a relatively short trading horizon to implement their models, making it difficult to accurately track the daily cumulative VWAP since the stock price movement is often insignificant within the short trading horizon. On the other hand, training reinforcement learning models directly over a longer, daily horizon is burdensome due to extensive sequence length. Hence, there is a need for a method that can divide the long daily horizon into smaller, more manageable segments. We propose a method that leverages the U-shaped pattern of intraday stock trade volumes and uses Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the learning algorithm. Our method follows a dual-level approach: a Transformer model that captures the overall (global) distribution of daily volumes in a U-shape, and a LSTM model that handles the distribution of orders within smaller (local) time intervals. The results from our experiments suggest that this dual-level architecture improves cumulative VWAP tracking accuracy compared to previous reinforcement learning approaches. The key finding is that explicitly accounting for the U-shaped intraday volume pattern leads to better performance in approximating the cumulative daily VWAP. This has implications for developing trading strategies that need to efficiently track VWAP over a full trading day.

Consumers of insect-based foods: a cross-cultural study between Belgium and Gabon.

Human consumption of insects has previously been examined in cross-cultural studies. However, such studies rarely include African countries and willingness-to-pay for insect-based food has never been assessed in cross-cultural studies. The current study presents a cross-cultural study conducted with 409 urban dwellers from Belgium (191 males; 218 females) and 412 urban dwellers from Gabon (219 males; 193 females). Each respondent was surveyed with a questionnaire following the Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices model and included questions relative to willingness-to-pay for 2 insect-based foods (insect baguette and insect burger). More than 90% of respondents from both countries were familiar with edible insects. However, acceptance of entomophagy was lower in respondents from Gabon than in respondents from Belgium. Intercultural differences were also recorded between Gabonese ethnic groups. Most respondents who accepted entomophagy were willing to eat the insect baguette and/or the insect burger. These findings confirm that entomophagy could further develop in Belgium and Gabon. Willingness-to-pay varied between countries and between insect-based foods. In Belgium, the average prices of comparable conventional foods (i.e., same foods but without insects) were lower than the average willingness-to-pay for insect-based foods. In Gabon, respondents were not willing to pay extra for insect-based foods. Setting the right price for insect-based foods is a necessary step to promote more frequent insect consumption.

A location-inventory-pricing model for a three-level supply chain distribution network

This article applies competition-based pricing method to a location-inventory-pricing problem, something which had not yet been investigated as of this study. It reveals that examining the three problems of location, inventory and pricing in an integrated and simultaneous manner can be the best approach to optimize the supply chain (SC) and increase the profitability of its companies. The investigated three-level SC distribution network model includes one supplier, several distribution centers (DCs), and several customers. The model is structured in form of a mixed integer nonlinear programming to maximize the long-term average profit of the distribution network. It considers constraints of inventory capacity along with continuous review inventory policy in each open DC. For its DCs’ retail price determination, two competing pricing approaches of higher than and lower than the average price of competitors have been used. The approach has been investigated on several potential DCs and customers and its numerical results show that retail price from the DCs to the customers is dependent on the average price of the market and its fluctuations. The major finding of this research is the fact that the type of demand function can have a substantial effect on the obtained results in the location-inventory-pricing model and greatly influence the amount of the profit of each company. Its applied strategy along with innovative competition-based pricing approach and projection of customers’ demand via linear and exponential functions show how companies can increase their profit through price adjustment and demand projection.

On the Moldovan Economy’s Potential Output and Output Gap: Evidence from the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

This paper introduces the notion of an economy’s potential output, its output gap and its output gap rate, analyses the properties of the Hodrick-Prescott filter drawing from the studies in the literature, and proceeds to estimate and discuss Moldova’s potential output, its output gap and its output gap rate utilising a methodology which can be used in other economies. The data for our empirical work comprise annual data on: 1. Moldova’s nominal GDP and the annual rate of growth or real GDP over the period 2010-2022; and 2. The latest forecasts of these indicators for the period 2023-2026. Data earlier than 2010 are not comparable as they were compiled under a different methodology. We use this data set to generate a time series of the evolution of Moldova’s real GDP in average prices of 2010 over the period 2010-2026. We apply the Hodrick-Prescott filter with the two different values of the filter’s smoothing parameter suggested by the studies in the literature for the decomposition of annual data. As it is well-known that the estimates of the filter are sensitive to the value of the smoothing parameter, we use the average of the two estimates in order to calculate the Moldovan economy’s potential output, output gap and output gap rate through time. Our calculations suggest that, over the period analysed, Moldova’s potential output has grown at a modest rate which is not sufficient for the country to converge to the EU average and attain its EU aspirations. The paper concludes by discussing a number of recent economic developments in Moldova, the required policy response to attain Moldova’s EU aspirations and areas for further work.

Analysis of the Relationship Lag Between Beef Production Amount and Average Meat Price in Turkey Using the Koyck Model

This research was obtained from statistical tables published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) between 2001 and 2018. In the resulting tables, the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle represents the dependent variable, while the average meat price represents the independent variable. Analysis was carried out with the help of the Koyck model to determine the relationship lag between the dependent variable and the independent variable. As a result of the research, it was found that the average meat price was affected by the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle in a maximum of two years, and that a change in the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle required 0.007 years to significantly affect the meat price. In addition, it was determined by the analysis that a 1 ton increase in the meat production of slaughtered cattle in year t increases the meat price by 0.994390, and a 1 ton increase in meat production in the t-1 period increases the meat price by 0.007731.

Analisis Karakteristik Petani Dan Pendapatan Usahatani Duku (Lansium Domesticum Corr.) Di Kabupaten Kudus

Kudus Regency has a distinctive variety of duku plant known as duku Sumber. The characteristics of duku farmers in Kudus Regency are different. The aim of this research is to describe the characteristics of duku farmers in Kudus Regency and determine the income of duku farming in Kudus Regency. The basic method used in this research is the descriptive method. The research location was determined purposively in the duku producing area in Kudus Regency. The research sample was 65 respondents. Table analysis was carried out to describe the characteristics of duku farmers, cost and income analysis was carried out to determine the costs and income incurred by farmers in duku farming. The results of the research show that the majority of duku farmers in Kudus Regency are of productive age and use duku Sumber farming as a side job. The highest level of education is high school graduates with an average of 25.95 years of duku farming experience. On average, farmers have 3.35 duku plants. The average duku production is 113 kg/plant with an average selling price of Rp. 28,359 per kilogram. Receipt Rp. 4,839,615,- per plant obtained from an average cost of Rp. 2,195,919,- in the form of fixed costs of Rp. 1,826,557.58,- and variable costs of Rp. 369,362,-. The income generated is IDR. 13,015,267.61 per plant.

Latent Hidden Factor Model for Malaysia Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index (CPI) is one of the significant indicators that can be used to track the inflation rate of a country and assess changes in the cost of living. Generally, the CPI measures the change in the average price of goods and services used by households. The increase in inflation can have a negative socioeconomic effects and the changes in the CPI value needs to be monitored to ensure that the country does not experience a serious inflation rate. In this work, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was employed to interpret the importance of each variable in the CPI and determine how the latent factors influence the CPI structure in Malaysia for the period of 2003–2022. The findings showed that there are two main latent factors that can be formed. Factor 1 can be classified as ‘Household Expenditures and Lifestyle Choices’ and consists of six variables, namely, ‘alcoholic beverages and tobacco’, ‘housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels’, ‘decoration, hardware, and household maintenance’, ‘health’, ‘recreational and cultural services’, and ‘education’. In contrast, Factor 2 can be classified as ‘Daily Necessities and Lifestyle Convenience’ which consists of six variables, namely, ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’, ‘clothing and shoes’, ‘transportation’, ‘communication’, ‘restaurants and hotels’, and ‘various goods and services’. In addition, the results of our analysis showed that Factor 1 is more dominant in influencing the CPI structure in Malaysia.

Examining Behavioral Biases in Discretionary Pricing: Evidence from Field and Lab Experiments

In theory, discretionary pricing enhances company performance by enabling managers to incorporate local information. However, in practice, managers may be prone to behavioral biases that can lead to suboptimal decisions. This paper investigates the effectiveness of discretionary pricing and behavioral elements on pricing decisions via field and lab experiments. Collaborating with a pharmacy chain retailer, we first analyzed a field experiment that delegated pricing authority to store managers. We find that managers began engaging in discretionary pricing after two months of experiment implementation and tended to raise the prices of high-priced drugs, resulting in significant sales and revenue losses. This effect was particularly prominent among less-experienced managers and in low-competition stores. We further designed a set of lab experiments to generalize our field observations and explore possible behavioral drivers. We requested lab participants to make pricing decisions under different information display scenarios and compared the average price adjustments between the direct display and click-to-view designs. We observe that participants also tended to raise product prices, and the magnitude of elevation was higher in the click-to-view group where the demand function information is less salient and accessible. Follow-up lab experiments support our field observations, suggesting that experience through repeated decisions and real-time feedback could alleviate the bias effect. Additionally, participants focused on high-priced products when given a list of items for discretionary pricing. Our results highlight the need to consider behavioral biases in human–algorithm collaborations and provide practical insights for improving information provision and training in discretionary settings.

Before political economy: debate over grain markets, dearth and pauperism in England, 1794–96

ABSTRACT During the 1790s Britain experienced a series of poor harvests which, given an expanding population and wartime disruption to the European grain trade, caused sudden and rapid increases in the domestic price of wheat. In modern discussion of Corn and Poor Laws the severity of these fluctuations has been obscured by the use of annual average grain prices, despite weekly county prices being available from 1771 as published in the London Gazette. We highlight the uncertainties of grain prices during the period 1794-96, drawing upon contemporary discussion published in the Annals of Agriculture of the problems arising from fluctuations in the price of wheat. Our purpose is to demonstrate that the tropes usually today associated with the Corn and Poor Laws – pauperism, a clash between merchant, manufacturing and landlord interests, population and impoverishment – are absent from discussion during this period. A doctrinaire “political economy” would develop in the early 1800s, but did not yet exist. Policy argument drew upon casuistic reasoning from circumstance and past experience. We also show in conclusion that Edmund Burke’s Thoughts and Details on Scarcity cannot be linked to “political economy”.

A decision support system for localized planning of reclaimed water around wastewater treatment plants.

Exploding population, industrialization, and an increase in water pollution has led to acute shrinkage in freshwater availability. Numerous countries have started exploring municipal wastewater as a new potential source of water to bring a paradigm shift from linearity to obtaining circularity in human water cycle management. This study aims to develop a decision support system for integrated water and wastewater management (DSS_IWWM), targeted towards reuse-focused selection of appropriate wastewater treatment technology, and localized planning around STPs in terms of reclaimed water demand identification, estimation, allocation, and sustainable pricing. The developed DSS_IWWM comprises of a repository of fourteen reuse purposes, reuse quality criteria, and 25 wastewater treatment technologies (WWTTs) in 360 combinations. It is sensitive to local resource scenarios and applies a socioeconomic and technology-focused methodology for addressing the interests of the community and investing agencies and viably. To validate the application of the DSS_IWWM, it is first tested with data from three cities in the state of Uttar Pradesh (India)-Lucknow, Prayagraj, and Agra-and then extended to nine more Indian cities with varying influent quality characteristics, resource inputs, existing STP technologies, and same target quality and decision criteria prioritization, to present a comparison of appropriate WWTTs and associated average prices obtained in different scenarios. It is concluded that influent quality, existing technology, and target quality criteria play significant role in selection of appropriate WWTTs. The traditional technologies such as UASB and ASP are required to be augmented and supplemented with high-performing WWTTs, such as BIOFOR-F with (C + F + RSF) and SBT + WP to obtain desired effluent quality. High-performing advanced oxidation process (AOP)-based systems such as A2O, SBR, and BIOFOR-F require WWTTs with relatively lower average costs (such as SBT and OP). The developed DSS_IWWM may prove to be very useful and beneficial for policymakers, government officials, engineers, and scientific community as it will facilitate rational decision-making for efficient investment planning in reuse focused wastewater treatment towards achieving circular economy in sustainable water resource management.

Assessment of CO2 abatement potential of heat pumps using pinch analysis for the Swiss chocolate industry

Decarbonizing industrial processes is crucial for achieving net-zero targets, with process heat electrification emerging as a key pathway. Heat pumps (HPs) are pivotal for this transition. This study introduces a novel methodology to construct exemplar profiles for specific energy demands, representative profiles for various production capacities, and energy demand profiles at product, subsector, or sector levels, using Swiss chocolate production as a case study. Exemplar profiles offer flexibility in generating representative profiles based on production capacities, aiding in identifying integration opportunities and sizes for HPs. Sector-wide profiles provide a broader perspective, aiding in visualizing bottom-up sector-wide potential for HPs. Based on the analysis of four representative profiles for Swiss chocolate production, two potential standard heat pump (SHP) and three high-temperature heat pump (HTHP) integration opportunities were identified. Techno-economic data from 30 commercially available HPs were collected, assessing their cost-effectiveness for Swiss chocolate manufacturing using the levelized cost of saved energy and CO2 abatement. Factors such as company size and electricity and natural gas prices impact the cost-effectiveness of HP integration. Despite variations, HPs with real coefficients of performance above 2.6 generally prove cost-effective for average energy prices and current CO2 levies in Swiss chocolate production. Bottom-up estimations of HP integration potentials using product-specific energy demand profiles suggest a potential reduction of CO2 emissions by up to 56% and an improvement in energy efficiency by up to 28% in Swiss chocolate production.

Cost-effectiveness of adding quizartinib to induction chemotherapy for patients with FLT3-mutant acute myeloid leukemia

The FLT3 inhibitor quizartinib has been shown to improve overall survival when added to intensive induction chemotherapy (“7 + 3”) in patients 18-75 years old with newly diagnosed AML harboring a FLT3-ITD mutation. However, the health economic implications of this approval are unknown. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quizartinib using a partitioned survival analysis model. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the base case scenario, the addition of quizartinib to 7 + 3 resulted in incremental costs of $289,932 compared with 7 + 3 alone. With an incremental gain of 0.84 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with quizartinib + 7 + 3 induction vs. 7 + 3 alone, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the addition of quizartinib to standard 7 + 3 was $344,039/QALY. Only an 87% reduction in the average wholesale price of quizartinib or omitting quizartinib continuation therapy after completion of consolidation therapy and allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant would make quizartinib a cost-effective option.

Techno-economic assessment of biopolymer production from methane and volatile fatty acids: effect of the reactor size and biomass concentration on the poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) selling price

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) is a biobased and biodegradable polymer that could efficiently replace fossil-based plastics. However, its widespread deployment is slowed down by the high production cost. In this work, the techno-economic assessment of the process for producing poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) from low-cost substrates, such as methane and valeric acid derived from the anaerobic digestion of organic wastes, is proposed. Several strategies for cost abatement, such as the use of a mixed consortium and a line for reagent recycling during downstream, were adopted. Different scenarios in terms of production, from 100 to 100,000 t/y, were analysed, and, for each case, the effect of the reactor volume (small, medium and large size) on the selling price was assessed. In addition, the effect of biomass concentration was also considered. Results show that the selling price of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) is minimum for a production plant with 100,000 t/y capacity, accounting for 18.4 €/kg, and highly influenced by the biomass concentration since it can be reduced up to 8.6 €/kg by increasing the total suspended solids from 5 to 30 g/L, This adjustment aligns the breakeven point of PHBV with the reported average commercial price.

TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF VEGETABLE PRODUCTION AMONG WETLAND VEGETABLE FARMERS IN SOUTHWEST NIGERIA

This study employed Cobb-Douglas Stochastic Frontier Production function to measure technical efficiency and its determinants among dry season vegetable farmers in selected wetland catchments in Southwest Nigeria. A multistage random sampling procedure was adopted to select 450 wetlands vegetable farmers across Oyo, Ogun and Lagos States and data were collected with the aid of structured questionnaire in 2020. Technical efficiency (TE) estimates indicated that wetlands vegetable farmers operated below the production frontier with the mean technical efficiency value of 0.74. Increased farm size, family labour, quantity of seed planted, and quantity of agrochemical significantly (p<0.01) improved the farmers’ technical efficiency level. The study found that extension contact, access to credit, farming experience, and membership of an association negatively and significantly related to technical inefficiency at 1 and 5%. Weighted average price and household size were significantly and positively related to technical inefficiency. It was recommended that attention should be given to improvement in the visitation by extension agent, the provision of improved seeds and affordable financial support. Key words: Efficiency, Stochastic frontier, Vegetable, Wetland,

Retail electricity prices in New Zealand: recent trends and the relationship to market shares

This paper constructs a monthly price series for electricity retailers in New Zealand, broken down by region and retailer, from January 2018 until June 2023. Since 2014, there has been no such price series for New Zealand that is disaggregated by retailer. We find that, over the time period of our dataset, while average prices across the largest five retailers are consistently higher than that of the smaller retailers in our dataset, the gap has narrowed substantially. The narrowing of this price gap is associated with the following trends in market shares. While, from January 2018 to September 2021, the smaller retailers, taken as a group, made considerable gains in market share at the expense of the larger retailers, the growth in the market share of the smaller retailers in our dataset stagnated in the remainder of the time period.

The Short-Term Price Elasticity, Temperature Elasticity, and Wind Speed Elasticity of Electricity: A Case Study from Norway

Energy production using hydropower has a 150-year history in Norway. High mountains, lots of rain, and a well-developed technology laid the foundation for low and stable electricity prices. The Norwegian electricity market is unique and different from any other country. Nearly all electricity produced (98.3 percent) comes from renewable energy sources and 75 percent of the energy used for heating is electricity. From autumn 2020, major changes have been observed in the electricity market in Norway. In 2021, Norway opened two transmission cables, one to Germany and one to England. Both cables have a capacity of 1400 MW. The average price per MWh was NOK 263 in southern Norway in the period 2013–2020, which more than quadrupled to NOK 1192 per MWh in the period 2021–2023. We have investigated how the market reacted to the large price increase. We found that price elasticity is low even when the price is very high. It is the temperature that controls the consumption. When it is cold—below zero degrees Celcius—the temperature elasticity is close to zero; the temperature elasticity is not constant. When the temperature is above zero, the temperature elasticity is about −0.7. Price variations or changes in wind speed only lead to minor adjustments in electricity consumption. It is the variations in temperature that result in the observable fluctuations in electricity consumption. Since Norway exports electricity to Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, and England, knowledge of the Norwegian electricity market is relevant for many market participants. The Norwegian electricity market differs from those in other countries. Therefore, there is a risk that conclusions drawn about the Norwegian electricity market based on research conducted in other countries may be incorrect or inaccurate. Our contribution with this case study is to deepen the knowledge of how the electricity market in Norway operates.

Probabilistic Modeling of the Coffee Market in Brazil

The coffee is one of the most valuable commodities in the world and in this scenario, Brazil presents itself as the largest producer and exporter in the world. However, the high fluctuations in prices promote insecurity in the agents of the sector. In this sense, the objective of this work is to propose the best probabilistic model for the monthly analysis of prices and to calculate probabilities of occurrences of average prices of coffee bags according to levels of practical interest. To this end, we use historical data provided by COOXUPÉ corresponding to the period from January 1981 to December 2022, arranged into monthly subseries. For supporting the results, goodness of fit test were performed. The results indicated that the Gamma and log-Normal distributions fit the coffee bag price data in all months. The log-Normal distribution outperformed in all months. The Gamma and log-Normal distributions fitted the monthly data of average coffee bags prices. The Log-Normal distribution is more suitable for the probabilistic study of the variable in all months. January, February, and March are the months with the highest probability of higher average values and are therefore the most recommended for coffee trading.

Optimal sizing and location of grid-interfaced PV, PHES, and ultra capacitor systems to replace LFO and HFO based power generations

The impacts of climate change, combined with the depletion of fossil fuel reserves, are forcing human civilizations to reconsider the design of electricity generation systems to gradually and extensively incorporate renewable energies. This study aims to investigate the technical and economic aspects of replacing all heavy fuel oil (HFO) and light fuel oil (LFO) thermal power plants connected to the electricity grid in southern Cameroon. The proposed renewable energy system consists of a solar photovoltaic (PV) field, a pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) system, and an ultra-capacitor energy storage system. The economic and technical performance of the new renewable energy system was assessed using metrics such as total annualized project cost (TAC), loss of load probability (LOLP), and loss of power supply probability (LPSP). The Multi-Objective Bonobo Optimizer (MOBO) was used to both size the components of the new renewable energy system and choose the best location for the solar PV array. The results achieved using MOBO were superior to those obtained from other known optimization techniques. Using metaheuristics for renewable energy system sizing necessitated the creation of mathematical models of renewable energy system components and techno-economic decision criteria under MATLAB software. Based on the results for the deficit rate (LPSP) of zero, the installation of the photovoltaic field in Bafoussam had the lowest TAC of around 52.78 × 106€ when compared to the results for Yaoundé, Bamenda, Douala, and Limbe. Finally, the project profitability analysis determined that the project is financially viable when the energy produced by the renewable energy systems is sold at an average price of 0.12 €/kWh.

PENGARUH POTONGAN HARGA TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN KONSUMEN DI INDOMARET SIMPANG LIMA KOTA BENGKULU

This research aims to determine the effect of price discounts on consumer decisions at Indomaret Simpang Lima, Bengkulu City. The approach in this research is quantitative research. The population in this research is consumers who shop with a sample of 48 people. Data collection techniques in this research are observation, questionnaires and interviews. The data analysis technique uses averages, simple linear regression analysis, and coefficient of determination using SPSS version 21. The results of this study show that the average price discount is in the strongly agree category that at Indomaret Simpang Lima, City. Bengkulu has many price discounts, the discounts given also vary from time to time and there are also price discounts at certain times and the average of consumer decisions is in the category of strongly agreeing to make purchasing decisions at Indomaret Simpang Lima. Bengkulu city because the price discounts given are in accordance with needs and are also useful and of course consumers will make repeat purchases and from the results of data analysis, it shows that there is a significant influence of price discounts on consumer decisions. The magnitude of the influence of the price discount variable on consumer decisions is 47.5%.

The impact of changing the reference countries on the list prices for patented medicines in Canada: A policy analysis

Background: Canada's Patented Medicine Prices Review Board (PMPRB) uses external and internal reference pricing (IRP) to regulate patented drug list prices. PMPRB has changed external reference countries from 7 to 11 to include countries with prices closer to the OECD median. We examined the impact on the list prices for patented medicines had the amendment been implemented from 2013.Methods: Using IQVIA MIDAS® quarterly sales data, we selected branded products that were launched in Canada in 2013–2018. The list price for each product in each country was calculated as its average annual price during the 3rd year post Canadian launch. The median international price (MIP) was the median of the list prices of PMPRB7 (MIP7) and PMPRB11 (MIP11). We assumed the same IRP would be (scenario 1) or would not be used (scenario 2).Results: Among the selected 400 products, 80.3 % (321) had MIP7 and MIP11 (launched in at least one reference country); 18.3 % did not have MIP11. The total current expenditures were $7,134.4 M. In scenario 1, MIP11 would not be binding for most products and expenditures would decline only by 0.7 %. If IRP were abolished, expenditures might decline by 14.1 % if the launching sequence would not change.Conclusions: MIP11 might not be binding for most medicines. The impact depends on whether to retain the IRP and approaches taken for medicines without MIP11.