Analysis of the Relationship Lag Between Beef Production Amount and Average Meat Price in Turkey Using the Koyck Model

Abstract

This research was obtained from statistical tables published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) between 2001 and 2018. In the resulting tables, the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle represents the dependent variable, while the average meat price represents the independent variable. Analysis was carried out with the help of the Koyck model to determine the relationship lag between the dependent variable and the independent variable. As a result of the research, it was found that the average meat price was affected by the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle in a maximum of two years, and that a change in the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle required 0.007 years to significantly affect the meat price. In addition, it was determined by the analysis that a 1 ton increase in the meat production of slaughtered cattle in year t increases the meat price by 0.994390, and a 1 ton increase in meat production in the t-1 period increases the meat price by 0.007731.