Long-term Average Values Research Articles

Situation on Rodents Abundance and Epidemiological Situation on Tularemia in the Territory of the Russian Federation in the Second Half of 2014, and Prognosis for 2015

Analyzed are the data on the state of the carrier populations (abundance rates, distribution by stations) across constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2014 as compared to the previous period. On the whole abundance of small mammals has not exceeded the long-term average annual values. For each of the 9 Federal Districts given has been an estimation of epizootic and epidemic activity in the natural tularemia foci in 2014. Outlined is a sharp decrease in tularemia morbidity in comparison to 2013. It is determined that within the past two decades there has occurred three major incidence outsurges in 1995, in 2005, and 2013, respectively. Based on the information obtained made has been the forecast for the development of epidemiological situation in natural tularemia foci of various types. Against the background of sharp decrease in the morbidity rates consequent upsurges are registered at certain intervals of several years, nevertheless current volatile state of ecosystems may draw a mixed response of parasitic systems.

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Using Satellite-Derived Potential Evapotranspiration

Abstract Satellite-derived potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates computed from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations and the Priestley–Taylor formula (M-PET) are evaluated as input to the Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM). The HL-RDHM is run at a 4-km spatial and 6-h temporal resolution for 13 watersheds in the upper Mississippi and Red River basins for 2003–10. Simulated discharge using inputs of daily M-PET is evaluated for all watersheds, and simulated evapotranspiration (ET) is evaluated at two watersheds using nearby latent heat flux observations. M-PET–derived model simulations are compared to output using the long-term average PET values (default-PET) provided as part of the HL-RDHM application. In addition, uncalibrated and calibrated simulations are evaluated for both PET data sources. Calibrating select model parameters is found to substantially improve simulated discharge for both datasets. Overall average percent bias (PBias) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values for simulated discharge are better from the default-PET than the M-PET for the calibrated models during the verification period, indicating that the time-varying M-PET input did not improve the discharge simulation in the HL-RDHM. M-PET tends to produce higher NSE values than the default-PET for the Wisconsin and Minnesota basins, but lower NSE values for the Iowa basins. M-PET–simulated ET matches the range and variability of observed ET better than the default-PET at two sites studied and may provide potential model improvements in that regard.

Assessment of Flux of Particulate Organic Phosphorus from the Photosynthesis Zone of the Deep-Water Section of the Black Sea

Simultaneously measured concentrations of particulate organic phosphorus (PPIM), particulate organic carbon (CPIM) and chlorophyll in the 0−100 m water layer, obtained over the years 1985−1994 in the western and central parts of the Black Sea were generalized. According to these indicators and regression equations, calculated on the basis of them, a series of weighted averages of the PPIM concentration in the deep-water part of the sea throughout the year was restored. On the basis of the calculated weighted average PPOM concentrations and rate of its sedimentation, within-year variability of sediment PPOM flux from the photosynthesis zone was estimated. Its maximal values corresponded to the cold, minimal − to the warm period of the year. Average annual values of PPOM flux, obtained on the basis of average monthly weighted mean of its concentrations, and calculated on the basis of the long-term average monthly values of the «new» primary production were practically identical and amounted to 46 and 44.9 mg-at P·m−2·year−1 respectively.

Insights from geodynamo simulations into long-term geomagnetic field behaviour

Detailed knowledge of the long-term spatial configuration and temporal variability of the geomagnetic field is lacking because of insufficient data for times prior to 10 ka. We use realisations from suitable numerical simulations to investigate three important questions about stability of the geodynamo process: is the present field representative of the past field; does a time-averaged field actually exist; and, supposing it exists, how long is needed to define such a field. Numerical geodynamo simulations are initially selected to meet existing criteria for morphological similarity to the observed magnetic field. A further criterion is introduced to evaluate similarity of long-term temporal variations. Allowing for reasonable uncertainties in the observations, observed and synthetic axial dipole moment frequency spectra for time series of order a million years in length should be fit by the same power law model. This leads us to identify diffusion time as the appropriate time scaling for such comparisons. In almost all simulations, intervals considered to have good morphological agreement between synthetic and observed field are shorter than those of poor agreement. The time needed to obtain a converged estimate of the time-averaged field was found to be comparable to the length of the simulation, even in non-reversing models, suggesting that periods of stable polarity spanning many magnetic diffusion times are needed to obtain robust estimates of the mean dipole field. Long term field variations are almost entirely attributable to the axial dipole; nonzonal components converge to long-term average values on relatively short timescales (15–20 kyr). In all simulations, the time-averaged spatial power spectrum is characterised by a zigzag pattern as a function of spherical harmonic degree, with relatively higher power in odd degrees than in even degrees. We suggest that long-term spatial characteristics of the observed field may emerge on averaging times that are within reach for the next generation of global time-varying paleomagnetic field models.

Links between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and inter-annual variability of Iranian evapotranspiration

Understanding the responding mechanism of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns is of particular concern in arid and semi-arid environments, where water resources scarcity constrains agriculture. This study investigates the statistical relationships between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the annual and seasonal mean ETo values of 41 weather stations in Iran for 1966–2005. The connections between the AO index and annual ETo are also examined during the extreme phases of the AO (high and low phases). Significant correlations between annual ETo and the corresponding AO index are quite rare, and the differences between the ETo values during the extreme AO phases and the long-term average ETo values were found to be significant only at three out of the 41 study stations. The lag correlations indicated that the greatest positive (0.506) and negative (−0.466) correlation coefficients were found for 2-season time lag. Furthermore, the mean time lag between the start of the AO events and the observed maximum effects on ETo at the study stations was about 1.61 seasons or 5 months.

A study of the relationship between volcanic activity and great earthquakes: The Kuril-Kamchatka region

We used the data on the activity of volcanoes in Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands for the period from 1840 to early 2013 to identify the most significant cyclic components. The resulting periodicities were compared with the recurrence spectrum for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region for 1841–2012. We detected 52.8–54.0, 8.58, and 5.72-year cycles, which are common both to seismicity and to volcanic activity. The first interval is close to the three times the value of the 18.613-year lunar rhythm (55.84 years). The 8.58 and 5.72-year periodicities seem to be controlled by solar activity variations and are the second and third harmonics in the 17.15-year cycle. This cycle and its harmonics are used for long-term prediction of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region as a whole. It was concluded that the existing increased hazard of great earthquake occurrence in the Kuril-Kamchatka region will last until February 2016 (a 40% probability of a great earthquake during that period). In addition, the long-period phase of increased seismic hazard will last until 2027 with the probability of great earthquakes being 1.6 times the long-term average value.

A Typical Meteorological Year Generation Based on NASA Satellite Imagery (GEOS-I) for Sokoto, Nigeria

Computer simulation of buildings and solar energy systems are being used increasingly in energy assessments and design. This paper evaluates the typical meteorological year (TMY) for Sokoto, northwest region, Nigeria, using 23-year hourly weather data including global solar radiation, dew point temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Filkenstein-Schafer statistical method was utilized for the creation of a TMY for the site. The persistence of mean dry bulb temperature and daily global horizontal radiation on the five candidate months were evaluated. TMY predictions were compared with the 23-year long-term average values and are found to have close agreement and can be used in building energy simulation for comparative energy efficiency study.

Spatiotemporal variations in the b-value of earthquake magnitude–frequency distributions: Classification and causes

Abstract Interpretation of the b-value of earthquake frequency–magnitude distributions has received considerable attention in recent decades. This paper provides a comprehensive review of previous investigations of spatial and temporal variations in b-value, including their classification and possible causes. Based on least-squares regression of seismicity data compiled from the NEIC, IRIS and ISC catalogs, we find an average value of 1.02 ± 0.03 for the whole Earth and its two hemispheres, consistent with the general view that in seismically active regions the long-term average value is close to unity. Nevertheless, wide-ranging b-variations (0.3 ≤ b ≤ 2.5) have been reported in the literature. This variability has been interpreted to arise from one or more of the following factors: prevailing stress state, crustal heterogeneity, focal depth, pore pressure, geothermal gradient, tectonic setting, petrological/environmental/geophysical characteristics, clustering of events, incomplete catalog data, and/or method of calculation. Excluding the latter, all of these factors appear to be linked, directly or indirectly, with the effective state of stress. Although time-dependent changes in b-value are well documented, conflicting observations reveal either a precursory increase or decrease in b value before major earthquakes. Our compilation of published analyses suggests that statistically significant b-variations occur globally on various timescales, including annual, monthly and perhaps diurnal. Taken together, our review suggests that b-variations are most plausibly linked with changes in effective stress.

Estimation of surface temperature anomalies of the Sea of Okhotsk and adjacent areas based on satellite data

Based on the long-term data obtained with a TeraScan receiver from NOAA satellites, the monthly average anomalies of the water surface in the Sea of Okhotsk have been calculated with a resolution of 0.25° and their statistical characteristics have been analyzed. During the studies, water areas with significant deviations from the average long-term values were estimated and the zones where anomalies substantially exceeded the standard deviation were distinguished. The spatial-time variations in these anomalies have been studied using the methods of decomposition in terms of empirical orthogonal functions and spectral analysis.

Elemental composition of tree rings: A new perspective in biogeochemistry

Chemical elements that are associated with the ionic composition of the cytoplasm of cells are crucial components of higher plants. They enable various pro� cesses throughout the lifetime of plants associated with cellular energy, operation of a large number of enzymes, etc. (1). Entering the plant from the soil, chemical elements perform their functions in the plant and with its demise close important biogeochemical cycles (2). Longliving woody plants are themselves components of biogeochemical cycles with varying characteristic times: from one year to centuries. Tree rings that form each year in woody plants record the current climatic conditions on one hand, and they accumulate information about longterm changes of their environment (3) on the other. Wood cells mature in one growing season as cell walls lignify, and upon death, they serve as a waterconducting system. Chemical elements that are rigidly linked to the com� ponents of the cell walls of wood and that preserve this link for many decades are thus valuable. They can be used as a potential source of information about the processes and factors that govern their content that took place during the maturing of wood cells. In this paper we present for the first time the changes in biologicallyimportant elements (P, K, Ca, Mg, Sr, Ba, Cl, Si) from 1300 to 2000 AD in the annual rings of larch ( Larix gmelinii Rupr.) from the Taimyr Peninsula (polar boundary of forest vegetation, 72° N). In this study we only consider selected elements that are considered most informative, although the method allowed us to determine the concentration of a total of 40 elements. There are many publications dedicated to the elemental composition of tree rings over short time intervals, however the potential of using the signal of the elements for making long reconstructions of the paleoenvironmental conditions remains unfulfilled. Such a long dendrochemical record for the elements is obtained for the first time. The conditions of tree growth on the permafrost soils of the Taimyr Peninsula are strictly limited by temperature. Wood samples (tree discs) were collected in 2006. Dating of discs was car� ried out using a long master chronology that was pre� viously obtained for this area (4). The actual lifespan of the trees was no more than 350-400 years; for each calendar period 3-6 samples from discs of different ages were measured. Covering the time interval of 700 years was achieved by using samples from both liv� ing and very well preserved dead trees. The total num� ber of samples analyzed from sixteen trees was 351. A single sample contained a 5�year or 10�year period of growth (5 or 10 calendardated tree rings). Chemi� cal analysis was carried out using the method of mass spectrometry with inductively coupled plasma (ICPMS) employing a quadrupole spectrometer Agilent 7500ce. Measurements were made on solu� tions obtained by dissolving wood specimens in con� centrated nitric acid and their subsequent dilution with water. The method of processing wood samples, their dissolution, and the subsequent sample prepara� tion and measurement is described in detail in (5). The longterm average values as well as the range of changes of concentrations of the elements in wood samples are given in the table. The most abundant ele� ments in the wood samples are K + and Ca 2+ , which are important components of the cytoplasm. Ba and Sr, which are the chemical analogs of Ca and Mg, have the lowest concentrations. Based on the temporal vari� ability of all investigated elements, they can be divided into three groups. The first group consists of K and P, which are characterized by the following dynamics: a relatively stable level of concentration during the period from 1300 to 1950 and then a sharp increase in

Statistical models for use of palaeosol magnetic properties as proxies of palaeorainfall

The magnetic properties of well-drained, near-neutral modern soils exhibit strong relationships with mean annual precipitation (MAP, conventional 30-year averages). The pedogenic magnetic susceptibility is low for low map values (≈300mm/yr), increases with increasing map (up to ≈1500mm/yr), and then flattens or declines for higher map values. These relationships have been amply documented, characterised quantitatively, and used for Quaternary palaeorainfall reconstructions. However, neither the fitting of climofunctions nor the evaluation of the associated uncertainty had yet been done recognizing the measurement errors that invariably affect the values of magnetic susceptibility and of map. Using published datasets – from the Great Plains of the United States, from the Chinese Loess Plateau and the Russian steppe, from arid and tropical areas of Mali, and from Mediterranean and Saharan regions of Morocco – we illustrate the development and calibration of statistical models that enable the use of magnetic properties of palaeosols as proxies for palaeorainfall. The methods we use (errors-in-variables regression) take into account the measurement errors that inevitably affect both the measurements of magnetic susceptibility, and of rainfall. We also characterise the uncertainty of the palaeoclimatic reconstructions that these models produce, and show that the uncertainty with which we can estimate the long-term (over hundreds of years) average values of map that truly characterise the prevailing climate, is sufficiently small to enable reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions. As an example, we provide an assessment of the uncertainty of the Holocene palaeorainfall reconstruction for Duowa, Qinghai Province, in the Chinese Loess Plateau, which corroborates the changes in the regimen of monsoons detected in previous studies.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Extreme Precipitation after Drought Events in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

AbstractRegional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation after a drought event based on the L-moment method has provided promising insights into drought risk management. The drought index of continuous noneffective rainy days was applied to analyze the droughts with the characteristics of increasing frequency, severity, and duration in the Heihe River Basin. Based on the typical drought records, the precipitation intensity after drought was shown to be greater than the long-term average values. Regional pooling of the precipitation after drought and under normal conditions for 1960–2010 from 14 sites across the Heihe River Basin was applied in a regional frequency analysis based on L-moments to estimate the quantiles for given return-period precipitation events in each of the three homogeneous regions for both the drought and normal series. From the study results, the following observations were made: (1) the Heihe River Basin (14 sites) can be classified into three homogeneous regions by the analysis...

FULL SPECTRAL SURVEY OF ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI IN THEROSSI X-RAY TIMING EXPLORERARCHIVE

We have analyzed spectra for all active galactic nuclei in the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) archive. We present long-term average values of absorption, Fe line equivalent width, Compton reflection and photon index, as well as calculating fluxes and luminosities in the 2-10 keV band for 100 AGN with sufficient brightness and overall observation time to yield high quality spectral results. We compare these parameters across the different classifications of Seyferts and blazars. Our distributions of photon indices for Seyfert 1's and 2's are consistent with the idea that Seyferts share a common central engine, however our distributions of Compton reflection hump strengths do not support the classical picture of absorption by a torus and reflection off a Compton-thick disk with type depending only on inclination angle. We conclude that a more complex reflecting geometry such as a combined disk and torus or clumpy torus is likely a more accurate picture of the Compton-thick material. We find that Compton reflection is present in ~85% of Seyferts and by comparing Fe line EW's to Compton reflection hump strengths we have found that on average 40% of the Fe line arises in Compton thick material, however this ratio was not consistent from object to object and did not seem to be dependent on optical classification.

Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates

Based on two hundred years of annual data of the Netherlands, Germany, US and Japan we analyse the mean reversion of long-term interest rates, by unit root tests over rolling windows and taking into account structural breaks and regime changes. While short-term rates and the yield curve tend to revert to their long-term average value, long-term rates can persistently deviate from it. At the outside, we only find weak statistical evidence for mean reversion of long-term rates. Outcomes of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models for long-term interest rates, indicate that the speed of mean reversion is regime dependent, being stronger when rates are far from their equilibrium value.

Decadal changes in the Baltic Sea wave heights

The analysis of decadal changes to the average and extreme wave properties in the Baltic Sea is performed based on the wave hindcast for the entire Baltic Sea 1970–2007 using the wave model WAM and adjusted geostrophic winds under the assumption of no ice cover. The overall wave activity in the entire basin has limited variations over the 38years of simulations. The local wave properties reveal strong decadal-scale signal in many parts of this water body. Its amplitude is up to 15% of the long-term average value of the significant wave height. The typical time interval between episodes of high or low annual average significant wave height is 10–12years. The analogous interval between episodes of high and low 99%-iles of wave heights is about 5years. Changes to the wave properties in different sea areas may be completely different in different decades. The overall maximum in the simulated annual mean significant wave height has drifted from an area between Gotland and Öland in the 1970s to the northern Baltic Proper at the turn of the millennium.

Heterotrophic microorganisms and viruses in the water of the Gorky reservoir during a period of anomalously high water temperature

During the anomalously hot summer of 2010, the water temperature in the Gorky reservoir reached 27–33°C. Pronounced cyanobacterial blooms occurred in the limnetic part of the reservoir. The average values for bacterioplankton abundance (11.58 ± 1.25 × 106 cell/mL), biomass (886 ± 96 mg/m3), and production [169 ± 32 mg C/(m3 day)] were twice as high as in the year with temperatures comparable to long-term average values. These parameters were higher in the limnetic part than in the river one. The abundance (4.86 ± 0.75 × 103 cell/mL) and biomass (138 ± 9 mg/m3) of heterotrophic nanoflagellates were 2.3 and 1.7 times higher, respectively, than in years with regular temperature regimes. The average number of plank-tonic viral particles (Nv) in 2010 was 48.89 ± 9.54 × 106 particles/mL, while virus-induced bacterial mortality (VMB) accounted for 26.9 ± 4.6% of the bacterial production. The Nv and VMB values in the limnetic part of the reservoir were, respectively, 1.5 and 1.8 times higher than in the river one.

Diagnosis of GLDAS LSM based aridity index and dryland identification

The identification of dryland areas is crucial for guiding policy aimed at intervening in water-stressed areas and addressing the perennial livelihood or food insecurity of these areas. However, the prevailing aridity indices (such as UNEP aridity index) have methodological limitations that restrict their use in delineating drylands and may be insufficient for decision-making frameworks. In this study, we propose a new aridity index based on based on 3 decades of soil moisture time series by accounting for site-specific soil and vegetation that partitions precipitation into the competing demands of evaporation and runoff. Our proposed aridity index is the frequency at which the dominant soil moisture value at a location is not exceeded by the dominant soil moisture values in all of the other locations. To represent the dominant spatial template of the soil moisture conditions, we extract the first eigenfunction from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis from 3 GLDAS land surface models (LSMs): VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH at 1 × 1 degree spatial resolution. The EOF analysis reveals that the first eigenfunction explains 33%, 43% and 47% of the VIC, NOAH and MOSAIC models, respectively. We compare each LSM aridity indices with the UNEP aridity index, which is created based on LSM data forcings. The VIC aridity index displays a pattern most closely resembling that of UNEP, although all of the LSM-based indices accurately isolate the dominant dryland areas. The UNEP classification identifies portions of south-central Africa, southeastern United States and eastern India as drier than predicted by all of the LSMs. The NOAH and MOSAIC LSMs categorize portions of southwestern Africa as drier than the other two classifications, while all of the LSMs classify portions of central India as wetter than the UNEP classification. We compare all aridity maps with the long-term average NDVI values. Results show that vegetation cover in areas that the UNEP index classifies as drier than the other three LSMs (NDVI values are mostly greater than 0). Finally, the unsupervised clustering of global land surface based on long-term mean temperature and precipitation, soil texture and land slope reveals that areas classified as dry by the UNEP index but not by the LSMs do not have dry region characteristics. The dominant cluster for these areas has high water holding capacity. We conclude that the LSM-based aridity index may identify dryland areas more effectively than the UNEP aridity index because the former incorporates the role of vegetation and soil in the partitioning of precipitation into evaporation, runoff and infiltration.

The relative performance of Australian CMIP5 models based on rainfall and ENSO metrics

We assess the performance of 30 CMIP5 and two CMIP3 models using metrics based on an all-Australia average rainfall and NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The assessment provides an insight into the relative performance of the models at simulating long-term average monthly mean values, interannual variability and the seasonal cycles. It also includes a measure of the ability to capture observed rainfall-NINO3.4 SST correlations. In general, the rainfall features are reasonably simulated and there is relatively little difference amongst the models but the NINO3.4 SST features appear more difficult to simulate as evidenced by the greater range in metric scores. We find little evidence of consistency in the sense that a relatively good metric score for one feature does not imply a relatively good score for another related (but independent) feature. The assessment indicates that more recent models perform slightly better than their predecessors, especially with regard to the NINO3.4 metrics. We also focus on the ability of models to reproduce the observed seasonal cycle of rainfall-SST correlations since this is a direct indicator of a model's potential utility for seasonal forecasting over Australia. This indicates some relatively good models (CNRM, HadGEM2-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR) and some relatively poor models (CSIRO-Mk3.5, FGOALS, GISS-E2-HP1 and INMCM4). We find that the ACCESS1.3 and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models rank as near median performers on this metric and represent improvements over their predecessors (ACCESS1.0, CSIRO-Mk3.0 and CSIRO-Mk3.5).

Evaluation of The Data of Duzce Air Quality Monitoring Station Between 2007-2011

Background: To evaluate air quality between the years 2007-2011 in the province of Duzce. Methods: Inthis cross-sectional study, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter levels, wind speed, air temperature, wind direction, relative humidity, air pressure values of Duzce city center obtained from the web page of Ministry of Envoriment and Planning between 2007-2011 were studied. Ontained measurements compared with the limit values of Air Quality Protection Regulation and the European Union. Results: Average PM10 was 90,5±1,9 (minimum 11,maximum 612) in Duzce Province from January 30, 2007 to December 2011. For PM10 long-term limit value for Turkey was 78 µg/mm3 and were exceeded all years. Winter seasons had higher average values of PM10 than summer seasons. The average SO2 was 12,5±0,3 (minimum 1, maximum 56). Long-term limit value and average annual values of Turkey for SO2 were not exceeded in any year. Conclusýon:Duzce Directorate of Environment and Urban Planning should increase the controls in Duzce,especially due to higher values for PM10 parameter related to air pollution.In the days when warning theshold levels exceeded necessary measuress must be taken.

Satellite climate extremes index of drylands

A satellite index for detecting climate extremes, such as droughts and overhumification after heavy precipitation in drylands has been suggested, i.e., a Satellite Climate Extremes Index. The Satellite Climate Extremes Index represents summed deviations from the long-term average values of the albedo, the surface temperature, the soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index normalized to standard deviation. The properties of using this index to study the desertification dynamics based on the example of the northwestern Caspian region are discussed.