Average Incubation Period Research Articles

Predictors of Mortality among COVID-19 Patients - A Case Control Study at Tertiary Care Center, Nanded (Maharashtra).

The novel Coronavirus is belonging to the family of SARS & MERS-CoV, the impact of the earlier is more dreadful as demonstrated by the steady increase in morbid cases. The average incubation period of COVID-19 is 1-14 days with a mean of 6 days. Aim - To evaluate predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients. Objectives - 1. To assess risk predictors associated with mortality among COVID-19 patients 2. To a suggest prediction model for preventing mortality in future outbreaks. Study design - A case-control study. Study place -Tertiary care center, Nanded, Maharashtra. The present study included 400 cases that died off due to Covid-19 and 400 controls survived COVID-19 disease in a 1:1 proportion. On admission, a significant difference was observed among cases and controls with reference to the percentage of SpO2 (p < 0.05). The proportion of associated co-morbidities among cases was very high i.e., 75.75% as compared to controls with a proportion of 29.25% co-morbidities. The median days of hospital stay were significantly lower in cases compared to controls (3 days vs 12 days, P < 0.001). Length of hospital stay (in days) was showing a significant difference among cases and control (3 days Vs 12 days); hospital stay was less (median 3 days) for cases, as they reported late and thus died earlier; hence concluded that early hospital admission will decrease chances of death due to COVID-19.

Review on middle east respiratory syndrome corona virus in camel: Its public health importance and economic impact

Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus (MERS-CoV) is a novel lineage C beta corona virus derived from bats which can cause acute viral respiratory disease in humans and in camels. According to a WHO report, MERS cases have been reported from 27 countries and there have been 2,428 confirmed cases, resulting in 838 deaths. MERS-CoV is transmitted to humans through close contact with dromedaries and it causes asymptomatic or mild-to-severe illness in the human population. MERS-CoV uses dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) protein in Pipistrelluspipistrellus bats for cell entry. Dromedary camels are a host reservoir species for the MERS-CoV. It is suspected that nasal mucous, sputum, saliva, milk or uncooked meat of infected camels are the main sources of transmission. Several factors such as being male and comorbid pre-existing illnesses are associated with severe disease and high mortality rates in patients with MERS. Studies in Ethiopia, Burkina Faso and Morocco reported that the prevalence of MERS-CoV sero-positivity ranges between 85.1- 99.4%, 73.2-89.9% and 48.3-100%, respectively. The clinical presentation of infected patients often indicate the presence of hemoptysis, sore throat, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and other gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea and vomiting. The average incubation period of MERS-CoV is 6-7 days. No vaccine or treatment is currently available for MERS-CoV. Supportive therapy necessitates respiration and circulatory support, preservation of renal and hepatic function, and prevention of secondary infections. This seminar paper is therefore, intended to highlight the public health and economic importance of the MERS-CoV.

Monkeypox: Past to Present

Poxviridae ailesine ait zoonotik bir hastalık olan maymun çiçeği 1958 yılında maymunlardan izole edilmiştir. İnsanlarda çiçek hastalığına benzer bir klinik oluşturur. Enfekte hayvan ısırığı, vücut sıvıları ile temas ve damlacık yoluyla bulaş tipiktir. 2003 ve sonrasında özellikle ithalat ve turizm nedenli seyahat ile birçok ülkede salgınlara neden olmuştur. 2022 yılında görülen salgında ise bulaşın cinsel aktivite ile ilişkili olduğu düşünülmektedir. Çiçek aşısı ile bağışıklanmamış bireyler hastalık açısından risk grubunu oluşturmaktadır. İnkübasyon süresinin ortalama 6-13 gün olduğu kabul edilir. Ateş, lenfadenopati ve miyalji varlığı diğer döküntülü hastalıklardan ayırt edicidir. Ayırıcı tanıda numunelerin referans laboratuvara gönderilerek doğrulamasının yapılması şarttır. Şüphelenilen vakalar hakkında yerel halk sağlığı yetkililerine bilgi verilmesi gerekir. Destek tedavisi esastır. Özel hasta grupları için tekovirimat, brinsidofovir veya sidofovir gibi antiviral tedaviler halk sağlığı yetkilileri onayı ile başlanabilir. Ayırıcı tanı olarak düşünüldüğü her durumda tanı dışlanana kadar temas, damlacık ve solunum izolasyon önlemleri de uygulanmalıdır. Temas öncesi veya temas sonrası profilaksi için yine yerel halk sağlığı yetkilileri onayı ile çiçek aşısı uygulanabilir.

Multiple system atrophy prions transmit neurological disease to mice expressing wild-type human α-synuclein.

In multiple system atrophy (MSA), the protein α-synuclein misfolds into a prion conformation that self-templates and causes progressive neurodegeneration. While many point mutations in the α-synuclein gene, SNCA, have been identified as the cause of heritable Parkinson's disease (PD), none have been identified as causing MSA. To examine whether MSA prions can transmit disease to mice expressing wild-type (WT) human α-synuclein, we inoculated transgenic (Tg) mice denoted TgM20+/- with brain homogenates prepared from six different deceased MSA patients. All six samples transmitted CNS disease to the mice, with an average incubation period of ~280days. Interestingly, TgM20+/- female mice developed disease > 60days earlier than their male counterparts. Brains from terminal mice contained phosphorylated α-synuclein throughout the hindbrain, consistent with the distribution of α-synuclein inclusions in MSA patients. In addition, using our α-syn-YFP cell lines, we detected α-synuclein prions in brain homogenates prepared from terminal mice that retained MSA strain properties. To our knowledge, the studies described here are the first to show that MSA prions transmit neurological disease to mice expressing WT SNCA and that the rate of transmission is sex dependent. By comparison, TgM20+/- mice inoculated with WT preformed fibrils (PFFs) developed severe neurological disease in ~210days and exhibited robust α-synuclein neuropathology in both limbic regions and the hindbrain. Brain homogenates from these animals exhibited biological activities that are distinct from those found in MSA-inoculated mice when tested in the α-syn-YFP cell lines. Differences between brains from MSA-inoculated and WT PFF-inoculated mice potentially argue that α-synuclein prions from MSA patients are distinct from the PFF inocula and that PFFs do not replicate MSA strain biology.

Incubation Period of COVID-19 Caused by Unique SARS-CoV-2 Strains

Several studies were conducted to estimate the average incubation period of COVID-19; however, the incubation period of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants is not well described. To systematically assess the incubation period of COVID-19 and the incubation periods of COVID-19 caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants in published studies. PubMed, EMBASE, and ScienceDirect were searched between December 1, 2019, and February 10, 2022. Original studies of the incubation period of COVID-19, defined as the time from infection to the onset of signs and symptoms. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline, 3 reviewers independently extracted the data from the eligible studies in March 2022. The parameters, or sufficient information to facilitate calculation of those values, were derived from random-effects meta-analysis. The mean estimate of the incubation period and different SARS-CoV-2 strains. A total of 142 studies with 8112 patients were included. The pooled incubation period was 6.57 days (95% CI, 6.26-6.88) and ranged from 1.80 to 18.87 days. The incubation period of COVID-19 caused by the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were reported in 1 study (with 6374 patients), 1 study (10 patients), 6 studies (2368 patients) and 5 studies (829 patients), respectively. The mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 5.00 days (95% CI, 4.94-5.06 days) for cases caused by the Alpha variant, 4.50 days (95% CI, 1.83-7.17 days) for the Beta variant, 4.41 days (95% CI, 3.76-5.05 days) for the Delta variant, and 3.42 days (95% CI, 2.88-3.96 days) for the Omicron variant. The mean incubation was 7.43 days (95% CI, 5.75-9.11 days) among older patients (ie, aged over 60 years old), 8.82 days (95% CI, 8.19-9.45 days) among infected children (ages 18 years or younger), 6.99 days (95% CI, 6.07-7.92 days) among patients with nonsevere illness, and 6.69 days (95% CI, 4.53-8.85 days) among patients with severe illness. The findings of this study suggest that SARS-CoV-2 has evolved and mutated continuously throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, producing variants with different enhanced transmission and virulence. Identifying the incubation period of different variants is a key factor in determining the isolation period.

Vaccine Coverage and Effectiveness in a School-Based Varicella Outbreak in Jinan Prefecture, Shandong Province.

Background: Licheng District of Jinan Prefecture reported a school-based varicella outbreak. We conducted an investigation to analyze the epidemiology and scope of the outbreak, determine varicella vaccine coverage on the school campus, and estimate varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE). Methods: In the epidemiological investigation, we determined the attack rate, the clinical manifestations of varicella cases, and histories of prior varicella disease and varicella vaccination. We tested students for presence of serum IgM antibodies, and we attempted to isolate the varicella virus from vesicular fluid samples. We used chi-square to compare incidences between classes and floors. VE was estimated using a retrospective cohort study. Results: There were 13 varicella cases in the outbreak. All were among fourth grade students - twelve in Class 7 and one in Class 6. The attack rate in the two classrooms was 14.3% (13/91). Clinical symptoms were rash (100%) and fever (46.15%). All cases were reported within one average incubation period, and the epidemic curve suggested common exposure. Six of the 13 cases previously received one dose of varicella vaccine with a median time between vaccination and infection of 9 years; the other seven cases had not been vaccinated. Varicella vaccine coverage with one or more doses was 81.31%; 2-dose coverage was 38.15%. The median age of receipt of dose 1 was 1.18 years, and median age for receiving dose 2 was 5.12 years. One-dose varicella VE was 73.2% (95% confidence interval: 37.0%, 88.6%), and two-dose VE was 100%. Conclusions: Varicella vaccine coverage has been gradually increasing in recent years, as ≥1-dose and 2-dose coverage rates are higher in younger children than older children. High one-dose vaccination coverage limited the outbreak scope and led to the breakthrough cases being mild. Mild cases were difficult to detect in a timely manner. Varicella vaccine was highly effective, with 1-dose VE of 73% nine years after vaccination and 2-dose VE of 100%. We strongly recommended that all school students receive two doses of varicella vaccine.

Exploring the Immunomodulatory Aspect of Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Treatment of Severe Coronavirus Disease 19.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an enveloped, positive sense, single stranded RNA (+ssRNA) virus, belonging to the genus Betacoronavirus and family Coronaviridae. It is primarily transmitted from infected persons to healthy ones through inhalation of virus-laden respiratory droplets. After an average incubation period of 2–14 days, the majority of infected individuals remain asymptomatic and/or mildly symptomatic, whereas the remaining individuals manifest a myriad of clinical symptoms, including fever, sore throat, dry cough, fatigue, chest pain, and breathlessness. SARS-CoV-2 exploits the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2) receptor for cellular invasion, and lungs are amongst the most adversely affected organs in the body. Thereupon, immune responses are elicited, which may devolve into a cytokine storm characterized by enhanced secretion of multitude of inflammatory cytokines/chemokines and growth factors, such as interleukin (IL)-2, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF), basic fibroblast growth factor 2 (bFGF2), monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP1), interferon-inducible protein 10 (IP10), macrophage inflammatory protein 1A (MIP1A), platelet-derived growth factor subunit B (PDGFB), and vascular endothelial factor (VEGF)-A. The systemic persistence of inflammatory molecules causes widespread histological injury, leading to functional deterioration of the infected organ(s). Although multiple treatment modalities with varying effectiveness are being employed, nevertheless, there is no curative COVID-19 therapy available to date. In this regard, one plausible supportive therapeutic modality may involve administration of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and/or MSC-derived bioactive factors-based secretome to critically ill COVID-19 patients with the intention of accomplishing better clinical outcome owing to their empirically established beneficial effects. MSCs are well established adult stem cells (ASCs) with respect to their immunomodulatory, anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidative, anti-apoptotic, pro-angiogenic, and pro-regenerative properties. The immunomodulatory capabilities of MSCs are not constitutive but rather are highly dependent on a holistic niche. Following intravenous infusion, MSCs are known to undergo considerable histological trapping in the lungs and, therefore, become well positioned to directly engage with lung infiltrating immune cells, and thereby mitigate excessive inflammation and reverse/regenerate damaged alveolar epithelial cells and associated tissue post SARS-CoV-2 infection. Considering the myriad of abovementioned biologically beneficial properties and emerging translational insights, MSCs may be used as potential supportive therapy to counteract cytokine storms and reduce disease severity, thereby facilitating speedy recovery and health restoration.

Safe use of ibuprofen in COVID-19 in children

The literature review presents current data on the use of ibuprofen in COVID-19. Features of оmicron-variant of the disease are presented, which, unlike previous outbreaks, has a very high level of transmission, shorter average incubation period, increased incidence among children. Because most children have mild to moderate COVID-19, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including ibuprofen, are the most commonly used drugs in childhood to relieve pain and fever. During the first outbreak of COVID-19, NSAID and ibuprofen have been suggested to be dangerous for use in COVID-19 because they may increase the risk of severe and fatal COVID-19 disease. Experimental and clinical data on the safe use of ibuprofen in COVID-19 are presented. To date, there is no increased risk of COVID-19 infection with ibuprofen. In addition, there was no increased risk of hospitalization or severe COVID-19, death of patients taking ibuprofen. A lower risk of death has been found in patients with COVID-19 who received NSAIDs, consistent with a reduction in inflammation and a cytokine storm in severe COVID-19 and a protective role for NSAIDs. According to the Protocol ”Provision of medical care for the treatment of coronary heart disease (COVID-19)“ in mild to moderate disease in children, symptomatic treatment of fever and pain with ibuprofen is indicated. Thus, according to WHO guidelines and available clinical data, ibuprofen can be safely used for analgesic and antipyretic effects in children with COVID-19.

EFEKTIVITAS MINYAK CENGKEH TERHADAP PATOGEN YANG BERASOSIASI DENGAN TANAMAN TOMAT (Lycopersicum esculentum Mill.)

This study aimed to evaluate the effect of clove oil to control pathogens associated with tomato plants in screen houses. The study was carried out using a completely randomized design (CRD) with 5 treatments repeated 3 times and each treatment consisted of 3 plants for a total of 45 plants, the treatments given were P0 (without application), P1 (pathogenic fungus Sclerotium sp. without clove oil application). , P2 (pathogenic fungus Sclerotium sp. with clove oil application), P3 (pathogenic fungus Helminthosporium sp. without clove oil application), P4 (pathogenic fungus Helminthosporium sp. clove oil application). The variables observed were plant height, stem diameter, number of branches and disease severity of tomato plants. The results showed that clove oil was able to increase plant growth as indicated by the highest average height and diameter of 18.61cm and 0.31cm, respectively. Clove oil application also suppressed the development of the pathogen Sclerotium sp. As indicated by the average incubation period and disease severity 18.67 days and 6%, respectively.

Breeding Biology of Northern River Terrapin Batagur Baska in Captivity in Bangladesh

Northern River Terrapin, Batagur baska, is an ecologically extinct species in Bangladesh. The ‘Project Batagur’ has undertaken some important initiatives to resuscitate the nearly deceased population through captive breeding at Bhawal National Park, Gazipur, Bangladesh. We conducted a study on breeding biology of B. baska from May 2016 to June 2017 in the project site. Four adult females and three adult males comprised breeding pair in the study site. Male Batagur baska developed black colouration on head and neck, with rich crimson on dorsal portion of the neck during breeding season. During our study, we observed paired basking behaviour rather courtship and parental care. We found three nests from mid-March to first week of April. Females laid eggs at night and a total of 67 eggs were extracted from three nests; eggs were elliptical and whitish in colour. Clutch size varied from 18 to 28 eggs. There was significant positive correlation between clutch size and nest diameter (p = 0.03). The relationship was also positive and significant between egg weight and diameter (p = 0.01).The size of the egg was not related with the size of breeding females (r = 0.143).Average incubation period was (68.26 ± 5.23) days and there was significant negative relationship with temperature (p= 0.000), clutch size (p = 0.001), and hatching success (p = 0.004). Hatching success was also negatively co-related with temperature (p= 0.001). Hatching started in May and ended in the first week of June 2017 with mean hatching success of 91%. Simple linear regression showed positive relationship between egg length and hatchlings’ carapace length, plastron length, and height. We also found positive relationship between egg diameter and hatchlings weight, and carapace width. This study can be used as a protocol for captive breeding and rearing activities of threatened chelonians around the world. Dhaka Univ. J. Biol. Sci. 31(1): 67-78, 2022 (January)

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic in Ejina banner, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, October 2021

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic in Ejina banner, Inner Mongolia, in October 2021 and provide evidence for the improvement of COVID-19 prevention and control. Methods: The information about the time, area and population distributions of COVID-19 cases in Ejina before November 13, 2021 and the gene sequencing result of the isolates were collected for a statistical descriptive analysis. Results: The first COVID-19 case in Ejina occurred on 7 October, 2021. A total of 164 COVID-19 cases were reported from October 19 to November 12. Most cases were distributed in 6 communities in Darahub (156 cases, 95.12%). The result of full gene sequencing of the isolates indicted that the pathogen was Delta variant (B.1.617.2). The male to female ratio of the cases was 1.3∶1. The age of cases ranged from 1 to 85 years, and the cases aged 20-59 years accounted for 78.66%. The main clinical symptoms were sore throat (91 cases, 91.92%), cough (49 cases, 49.49%) and fever (23 cases, 23.23%). Most cases were ordinary ones (81 cases, 49.39%) and mild ones (68 cases, 41.46%). The cases were mainly detected at the isolation points (84 cases, 51.22%) and through population based nucleic acid testing (62 cases, 37.80%). The basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 was 5.3, the average incubation period was 3.9 days. The local government rapidly started Ⅳ level emergency response and conducted 10 rounds of nucleic acid tests. The transferring of travelers reduced the risk for the further spread of COVID-19 in Ejina. Conclusions: The epidemic of COVID-19 in Ejina characterized by strong transmission, short incubation period, herd susceptibility and case clustering. Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was the pathogen, which might be imported from Zeke port. Comprehensive prevention and control measures, such as closed-loop management and vaccination, should be continued. The successful transferring of the patients and travelers provided evidence for the effective and precise prevention and control of COVID-19 in a routine manner.

Impact of Age and Gender on the Incidence of COVID-19 in Children at Pasar Rebo Hospital, Jakarta

SARS-CoV-2 is a new type of coronavirus that has never been previously identified in humans. COVID-19 can cause respiratory system disorders, ranging from mild symptoms such as flu, to lung infections, such as pneumonia. The average incubation period is 5-6 days with the longest incubation period being 14 days. This virus spread rapidly around the world, including to Indonesia. From March 2, 2020 to July 9, 2020, Indonesia reported 70,736 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 3,417 deaths (CFR 4.8%). Based on data obtained from the Indonesian Pediatrician Association, 416 out of 72,314 cases confirmed positive for COVID-19 (0.9%) were children aged less than 10 years, 549/72,314 or 1% were children aged 10-19 years, and 450 of them had died by March 21, 2020. This study aimed to examine the relationship between age and gender with the incidence of COVID-19 in children at Pasar Rebo Hospital, Jakarta. Data collection used secondary data, the sample included 150 respondents, and the research instrument used was observation sheets at Pasar Rebo Hospital, Jakarta. The design of this study was quantitative cross-sectional. This research used the Chi-square test and t-test for data analysis. A total of 57.3% of respondents were male, and 42% had symptoms. According to the findings, there was a relationship between age and gender with the incidence of COVID-19 in children (p &lt; 0.001). Male children were more at risk of being infected with COVID-19 than females, likely due to differences in the immunological system related to gender as women have a lower susceptibility to viral infections than men. Based on the results, there was also a relationship between age and the incidence of COVID-19 in children at the hospital. These results have implications for differences in the nursing care that is needed for boys vs. girls with COVID-19.&#x0D; Keywords: COVID-19, children, age, gender

Occurrence of Rabies in Post Exposure Vaccinated Cattle with Dog Bite Injury above the Neck Region

Background: Investigated the fatality in bovines infected with rabies virus through dog bite, that have undergone the post bite therapy. The site of dog bite close to the brain was an important factor and reason behind the fatality. Methods: The findings from cattle infected naturally with Rabies virus and vaccinated with post bite shots of anti-rabies vaccine were considered for the present study. The rabies cases i.e., 20 cases (out of total 58 cases reported) in bovines, from Bidar, Karnataka and Maharashtra border area, reported in last three years and bovines with site of dog bite specifically above neck region were considered. All the clinical samples were tested with direct fluorescent antibody test and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, amplifying the glycoprotein, G gene of rabies virus. Result: In the diseased cattle, with history of dog bite above neck region, the average incubation period observed was 15 days in case of calves and 20 days in case of adults. The occurrence of clinical signs was seen in cattle undergoing the post bite vaccination. Fatality rate recorded was 100 per cent, despite having treated with post bite anti-rabies vaccine alone, without use of rabies antisera as a passive way of treating successfully in such cases. Rabies post bite vaccination is not protective, if the site of dog bite is above the neck region.

Clinical Improvement in Patients with Morbus Hansen Borderline Tuberculoid Lesions with 3-Month Multibacillary Regimen Therapy

Background/Aim: Morbus Hansen (MH) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae. The disease has an average incubation period of 3-5 years. Morbus Hansen (MH) has various clinical, microbiological and histopathological features. In the following, a new case of MH is reported with a clinical manifestation of Borderline Tuberculoid (BT) type MH. The patient was treated with the MDT MB regimen for 3 months and had clinical improvement. Case Report: A 23-year-old boy with complaints of sudden feeling of heat, tingling and cramping from the tip of his right foot to the sole of his right foot. He also complaining about black lesions on both hands, right elbow, face, chest and back. The diagnosis of gout, fungus and dermatitis can be ruled out after microscopic examination of AFB on the right, left ear lobe, and foot lesions showed negative results and histopathological examination results showed Morbus Hansen type BT. The risk factor for contracting Morbus Hansen is the patient has lived in a dormitory for 2.5 years and it is known that there are people who suffer from a similar disease in that environment. The patient was treated using a multibacillary regimen for 3 months and the lesions improved and the numbness decreased. Treatment plan during the case for 12-18 months. This case is unique due to the clinical manifestation has not significant characteristic for MH, AFB is not found from ear lobe smear. MH established after skin biopsy done. Conclusion: It was reported that one MH case with TB for 3 months had clinical improvement, with plans to continue treatment for 12-18 months. Keywords: Borderline Tuberculoid; Morbus Hansen, Multibacillary.

Influenza in the COVID-19 era: principles of modern pharmacotherapy

Influenza is one of the most common infectious diseases and a significant public health problem. Every year, the influenza virus causes 3–5 million severe cases, millions hospitalizations and approximately 650,000 deaths. According to WHO four new influenza strains are projected to circulate in the 2020–2021 epidemic season. Influenza A and B strains are: A/Guangdong-Maonan/ SWL1536/2019 (H1N1) pdm09, A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 (H3N2), B/Washington/02/2019 (Victoria lineage), B/ Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage). In this context, the problem of prescribing rational antiviral therapy is particularly importance. COVID-19, along with influenza, is a group of respiratory viral infections, but important differences exist in terms of viral agents and the spread of infection. Important differences include the rate of transmission. The average incubation period and generation time (the time between infecting one person and infecting another) for influenza are shorter. COVID-19 may be more severe, causing complications and deaths in 3–4% of cases. The estimated generation time for COVID 19 is 5-6 days, while for influenza it is 3 days. According to the latest data, the reproductive number, i.e., the number of people who can be infected by one patient, is in the range of 2 to 2.5 in COVID 19, which is higher than in influenza. Only a laboratory test can accurately identify the type of pathogen and distinguish it from influenza and other respiratory viruses. Neuraminidase inhibitors are currently first-line drugs recommended by WHO for the treatment and prevention of influenza.

Data-driven dynamical modelling of the transmission of African swine fever in a few places in China.

Since the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Shengyang, it has continued spreading in China. In the early stage of the epidemic, multi-point and concentrated outbreaks were mainly in the swill feeding areas. In this paper, we developed compartmental models to investigate the transmission of ASF in several raising units including Guquan, Jinba and Liancheng. Using the data collected from these three infected premises, we calibrated the models to estimate that the average incubation period was between 8 and 11 days, the onset period was about 2-3 days and the basic reproductive number was about 4.83-11.90. We also estimated the infection on the day before culling to be 45.24% (Guquan), 89.20% (Jinba) and 16.35% (Liancheng), respectively. The infection rate of Guquan could reach about 74.8% if culling were postponed by 2days. We found that the infection was significantly higher than the morbidities (22.11% (Guquan), 49.35% (Jinba) and 12.94% (Liancheng)) calculated by actual statistical data. Besides, we simulated and compared the control effect of stopping transport, disinfecting, stopping swill and culling. Our findings suggest that any single measure was not enough to prevent the spread of ASF on a regional level but the combined measures is the key. Under the current situation, fully culling was recognized as most effective in controlling the epidemic, despite the culling of uninfected pigs.

Biology of Zygogramma Bicolorata Pallister on Parthenium hysterophorus Linn. under Laboratory Conditions

Parthenium hysterophorus Linn. is one of the most aggressive, invasive weeds threatening natural and agricultural ecosystems in the world including Nepal. Augmentative release of host-specific, leaf feeding beetle, Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is one of the sustainable management approaches of parthenium weed. Successful mass rearing program requires knowledge on biology of Z. bicolorata for augmentative release. Thus, life cycle and biology of Z. bicolorata were studied in lab at 26±2 °C temperature and 70±10% relative humidity at NARC, Lalitpur, Nepal during March to September, 2016. The average incubation, larval and pupal periods of the insect were 4.33, 12.20, and 11.00 days, respectively. A single female could lay 1,837 eggs in 58.80 days oviposition period with 73.01% egg hatchability. The insect completed its life cycle in 108.40 and 105.50 days with adult longevity of 91.90 and 75.00 days for females and males, respectively. The average length of egg, pupa, adult female and male was 1.19 mm, 5.90 mm, 6.58 mm and 5.32 mm and breadth 0.51 mm, 3.74 mm, 3.94 mm and 3.20 mm, respectively. The average lengths of the first, second, third and fourth instar larvae were found 1.30 mm, 3.02 mm, 4.96 mm and 8.08 mm and breadth of 0.44 mm, 1.13 mm, 2.02 mm and 3.16 mm, respectively. These findings will help in mass multiplication of Z. bicolorata for biological control of parthenium weed.

Studies on the life cycle of pulse beetle (Callosobruchus chinensis L.) on chickpea and oviposition preference on different chickpea genotypes/ varieties

Total developmental period from egg to adult of C. chinensis (L.) was studied on chickpea (variety JG 12). It was observed that the average incubation period was 4.67 days which varied from 3 to 7 days in which differences could be due to the impact of temperature and humidity. The larval pupal period varied from 26 to 29 days with an average of 27.0 days during the present studies with the larval period varied from 20 to 22 days and the pupal period from 6 to 7 days. The time taken by the beetle to complete total developmental period varied from 30 to 34 days (average: 31.66 days). Regarding adult orientation and oviposition preference of the pulse beetle (tested on 30 chickpea varieties/ genotypes), the genotype JG 11 X RVSSG 1 was found to be best host and the least preferred host was JAKI 9218.

Seasonal variations in the life cycle and morphology of Anisops breddini (Hemiptera: Notonectidae)

ABSTRACT Studies on temperature-dependent phenology and morphology of insects facilitate examination of the consequences of temperature on their growth, development and population dynamics. The effects of seasonal changes on the life cycle and morphometry of Anisops breddini were studied by rearing eggs to adults under laboratory conditions during the wet and dry seasons. The average incubation period of eggs, developmental durations of instars I–V and total developmental time were significantly less at warm temperature (wet season) than in cold temperature (dry season). However, the hatching percentage was significantly higher at warm temperature than in cold temperature. Morphometric measurements of nymphs and adults were also significantly less at warm temperature than in cold temperature. Laboratory reared individuals during the wet season at warm temperature had faster development and produced smaller individuals as compared with the dry season. The developmental durations and body size of the experimental individuals were significantly negatively correlated with rearing temperature. The study further revealed that in warm temperature the developmental duration of the experimental individuals become shorter which in turn might increase the number of generations of this insect.

Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 in China: Spatial–Temporal Characteristics, Risk Analysis and the Impact of the Quarantine of Hubei Province on the Railway Transportation Network

The rapid spread of COVID-19 and its global growth constitutes an international public-health emergency, posing a serious threat to global health, safety, and social economy. In this paper, we systematically studied the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19, infectivity, and the impact of Hubei province’s quarantine on the national railway system on the basis of epidemic and national train data. This study found the following: (1) The overall growth of the epidemic was exponential, and the outbreak of Hubei had a strong spread in the eastern and southern directions. The epidemic was generally more serious in the capital or developed cities in each province, and the epidemic outside Hubei was under control after the imported growth ended. (2) On the basis of analyzing the disturbance of the spread of the epidemic by traffic control, the average incubation period of COVID-19 was approximately 4 days. The ratio of the number of cured people to the number of deaths gradually increased, indicating that, given sufficient medical service, the cure rate can be greatly improved. (3) The quarantine of Hubei had greater impact on cities with higher centrality, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region, and smaller impact on the overall connectivity of the national railway network. For local people, quarantine had great impact on the outflow of local people to neighboring provinces.