Abstract
The rapid spread of COVID-19 and its global growth constitutes an international public-health emergency, posing a serious threat to global health, safety, and social economy. In this paper, we systematically studied the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19, infectivity, and the impact of Hubei province’s quarantine on the national railway system on the basis of epidemic and national train data. This study found the following: (1) The overall growth of the epidemic was exponential, and the outbreak of Hubei had a strong spread in the eastern and southern directions. The epidemic was generally more serious in the capital or developed cities in each province, and the epidemic outside Hubei was under control after the imported growth ended. (2) On the basis of analyzing the disturbance of the spread of the epidemic by traffic control, the average incubation period of COVID-19 was approximately 4 days. The ratio of the number of cured people to the number of deaths gradually increased, indicating that, given sufficient medical service, the cure rate can be greatly improved. (3) The quarantine of Hubei had greater impact on cities with higher centrality, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region, and smaller impact on the overall connectivity of the national railway network. For local people, quarantine had great impact on the outflow of local people to neighboring provinces.
Highlights
Wuhan is the capital of the province Hubei and is located in the central region of China.It is an important transportation hub that connects important domestic transportation routes in China
On 31 December 2019, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued the first report of the pneumonia epidemic of the new coronavirus infection (COVID-19)
The limited inflow and outflow of people of Wuhan and even the province of Hubei were part of the largest isolation in history to prevent the spread of infectious diseases
Summary
The limited inflow and outflow of people of Wuhan and even the province of Hubei were part of the largest isolation in history to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. How effective was such a major measure in preventing and controlling the epidemic?. In this article, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics, hazards, and the growth trend of the spread of COVID-19 from a macroscopic and full-sample perspective, so as to provide a comprehensive understanding for epidemic prevention and control in
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