Average Daily Maximum Research Articles

ОЦЕНКА ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЯ ТЕХНОГЕННОГО ЗАГРЯЗНЕНИЯ ВОЗДУШНОЙ СРЕДЫ НА МЕДИКО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЕ ПРОЦЕССЫ КРУПНЫХ УРБАНИЗИРОВАННЫХ РЕГИОНОВ

According to the data of the Federal information Fund for social and hygienic monitoring of the Federal state statistics Service of Rospotrebnadzor, air pollution in urbanized cities of Central Russia was studied. The most toxic anthropogenic pollutants and regions with the highest excess of the maximum single and average daily maximum permissible concentrations of anthropogenic pollutants in the urban environment were identified. To assess the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on the medical and demographic processes of large urbanized territories in the GIS environment in the studied territories of Central Russia, the study of the dynamics of total population mortality from malignant neoplasms of various organs, as well as the dynamics of population mortality from leukemia, was conducted. Research has shown that a number of medical and demographic processes are directly correlated with atmospheric pollution by anthropogenic pollutants.

Annual SO2 exposure, asthma, atopy, and lung function in Puerto Rican children.

Long-term effects of sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) exposure on children, a vulnerable population, are largely unknown. Further, how long-term SO2 affects Puerto Rican children living in the island of Puerto Rico, a group with high asthma prevalence, is unclear. We evaluated the effects of annual average 1-hour daily maximum SO2 average on asthma, atopy, total immunoglobulin E (IgE), and lung function in Puerto Rican children. A cohort of 678 children (351 with asthma, 327 without asthma) was recruited in Puerto Rico from 2009 to 2010. Annual average 1-hour daily maximum SO2 exposure was interpolated utilizing publicly available monitoring data. Multivariable logistic and linear regression was used for the analysis of asthma, atopy (defined as an IgE ≥0.35 IU/mL to at least one of five common aero-allergens), total IgE, and lung function measures (forced vital capacity [FVC], forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1], and FEV1/FVC ratio). Annual SO2 exposure (per 1 ppb) was significantly associated with asthma (odds ratio [OR] = 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05-1.91) and atopy (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.02-1.78). Such exposure was also significantly associated with lower FEV1/FVC in all children (β = -1.42; 95% CI = -2.78 to -0.08) and in children with asthma (β = -2.39; 95% CI= -4.31 to -0.46). Annual SO2 exposure was not significantly associated with total IgE, FEV1, or FVC. Among Puerto Rican children in Puerto Rico, long-term SO2 exposure is linked to asthma and atopy. In these children, long-term SO2 exposure is also associated with reduced FEV1/FVC, particularly in those with asthma.

Influence of Meteorology on Fine Particles Concentration in Vitória Metropolitan Region During Wintertime

Abstract Fine particles (PM2.5) are harmful to human health especially during periods of limited dispersion when the concentrations build up. This is a common occurrence in Southern Brazil in the dry season when high-pressure stationary systems inhibit vertical dispersion and reduce wind speed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the PM2.5 concentrations in the Region of Greater Vitória during the winter of 2013, and to assess the influence of the large-scale meteorological circulation on its concentration. An experimental campaign was carried out to determine the mass of PM2.5 at six urban sites and particle number concentration. The average PM2.5 concentrations varied from 9.70 μg m-3 to 14.36 μg m-3 with the average daily maximum reaching 29.35 μg m-3, exceeding the World Health Organization guideline (24-h average: 25 μg m-3). The particle size distribution showed a larger number of particles from 18 to 21 h (local time), indicating that the main vehicular emissions are the main sources. During the winter, rainfall associated with cold fronts were responsible for a decrease in the particulate concentrations. In contrast, the occurrence of high-pressure systems led to an increase in particle concentrations, due to stagnant conditions.

MBCAST: A Forecast Model for Marssonina Blotch of Apple in Korea.

A disease forecast model for Marssonina blotch of apple was developed based on field observations on airborne spore catches, weather conditions, and disease incidence in 2013 and 2015. The model consisted of the airborne spore model (ASM) and the daily infection rate model (IRM). It was found that more than 80% of airborne spore catches for the experiment period was made during the spore liberation period (SLP), which is the period of days of a rain event plus the following 2 days. Of 13 rain-related weather variables, number of rainy days with rainfall ≥ 0.5 mm per day (Lday), maximum hourly rainfall (Pmax) and average daily maximum wind speed (Wavg) during a rain event were most appropriate in describing variations in air-borne spore catches during SLP (Si) in 2013. The ASM, Ŝi = 30.280+5.860×Lday×Pmax–2.123×Lday×Pmax×Wavg was statistically significant and capable of predicting the amount of airborne spore catches during SLP in 2015. Assuming that airborne conidia liberated during SLP cause leaf infections resulting in symptom appearance after 21 days of incubation period, there was highly significant correlation between the estimated amount of airborne spore catches (Ŝi) and the daily infection rate (Ri). The IRM, R̂i = 0.039+0.041×Ŝi, was statistically significant but was not able to predict the daily infection rate in 2015. No weather variables showed statistical significance in explaining variations of the daily infection rate in 2013.

Empirical model development for the estimation of clearness index usingmeteorological parameters

The clearness index is an indispensable parameter required for the design and analysis of solar energy systems. In the absence of measured values for a specific location, the clearness index can be estimated from other measured meteorological variables. In this study three meteorological parameters, sunshine hours, monthly mean values of the temperature difference ($\Delta$T), and cloudiness, are used to develop empirical models for the estimation of clearness index. The empirical models are developed for five major cities in Pakistan (Karachi, Multan, Lahore, Islamabad, and Quetta). For empirical model development, long-term data (1991 to 2010) of monthly average clearness index, sunshine hours, average daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and cloudiness have been used. The accuracy of the models has been tested by statistical indicators that include mean percentage error (MPE), coefficient of determination (R$^2$), mean absolute relative error (MARE), mean bias error (MBE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The error analysis revealed that the proposed models are suitable for the estimation of the clearness index. It is also concluded that multiple regression models give better estimates of clearness index for all the stations (0.80 $\leq$ R$^{2}$ $\leq$ 0.86) compared to single parameter model and therefore are recommended. The study indicated that clear sky conditions prevail throughout the months at all the investigated sites (0.58 $\leq$ K$_T$ $\leq$ 0.68), which is a good indicator for solar energy utilization. The statistical indicators also suggest that multilinear regression model M-3 gives a better representation of the climate system and using three parameters reduces the uncertainties in the developed model.

Variable tree establishment in bauxite mine restoration in south‐west Australia linked to rainfall distribution, seasonal temperatures and seed rain

SummaryReasons for variable establishment of Jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata D. Don ex Sm.) and Marri (Corymbia calophylla (Lindl). K. D. Hill & L. A. S. Johnson) on restored forest sites after bauxite mining in south‐west Australia are not well understood. To refine restoration outcomes, we compiled tree seedling density establishment data from surveys of 654 previously mined sites restored between 1998 and 2017, and applied generalised linear models to discriminate the effects of 24 climatic and restoration practice variables. Final models explained 50% and 31% of the variation in Jarrah and Marri density, respectively. Broadcast seeding and fertiliser rates were positively related to seedling density. A more even rainfall distribution in the early wet season increased seedling density. However, persistent rain later in the wet season decreased density, possibly as a result of ripline soil saturation or ponding. Higher average daily maximum temperatures in the dry season decreased seedling density probably due to drought stress, but warmer daily temperature minima in both wet and dry seasons increased density. Seed rain from surrounding unmined forest was implicated as a significant, but highly variable, source of additional seed to restored sites. Restoration practices that influence soil moisture relations (tillage, depth and texture of returned soil), shallow burial of applied seed and timing of fertiliser application are likely to be important in refining restoration outcomes.

Effects of agro-climatic factors on yield components of grass pea (Lathyrus sativus L.)

Field experiment was conducted during rabi (winter) season of the year 2016–17 with grass pea (Variety: ‘Prateek’) sown on nine dates from 26th October to 21st December at weekly interval at Instructional Farm, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, West Bengal to study the effect of agro-climatic factors on the yield components viz., number of pods per plant (PP), number of grains per pod (GP) and test weight of grains (TW). PP showed positive association with air temperatures during vegetative phase (Tmax: 0.70*; Tmin: 0.70* and Tmean: 0.70*). Significant positive correlations were observed between TW and average daily maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range during the postflowering phase (Tmax: 0.71* and Trange: 0.75*). Number of pods per plant could be predicted at the end of vegetative and reproductive stages with 69.9 and 70.1% predictability, respectively. On the other hand, test weight of grains could be predicted at the end of reproductive phase with 94.8% predictability.

Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling

Projecting the burn probability (BP) under future climate scenarios would provide a scientific basis for the implementation of forest fire adaptation technology. This study compared the changes in the climate, fire weather, and burn probability during the fire season in Daxing’anling, China. A burn probability model was established and used to simulate the daily fire occurrence and spread at baseline (1971–2000) and into the 2030s (2021–2050) based on the outputs from five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2M, Had GEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and Nor ESM1-M) under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The results showed that the average daily maximum temperature in the fire season will be increased by 2.1 °C (+16.6%) in the 2030s compared with the baseline and precipitation in the fire season will be increased by 7.1%. The average fire weather index (FWI) of the fire season in the 2030s will be increased by 4.2%, but this change is not significant. There will be 39 fires per year in the 2030s, representing an increase of 11.4%. The accuracy of simulated burned areas was 71.2% for the 1991–2010 period. The simulated and observed burned areas showed similar interannual fluctuations during period 1971–2010. The potential burned areas in the 2030s will increase by 18.8% over those in the baseline period and the BP will increase by 19.4%. The implementation of proactive fire management in areas with high predicted BP values will be key for an effective mitigation of future wildfire impacts.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in Northwest India

Heat waves are anticipated to worsen with climate change. India, an understudied area with >15% of the world’s population, commonly experiences temperature extremes and already resembles potential future climates of more temperate regions. Registry data from local municipal corporations and government offices were collected and translated, yielding daily all-cause mortality for 4 communities in Northwest India for all or part of the period 2000–2012. Heat waves were defined as ≥2 days with local temperature ≥97th percentile for that community. An alternate definition matching that used by the Indian Meteorological Department was also developed, to enhance policy relevance. Community-specific average daily maximum temperature over the entire record ranged from 32.5 to 34.2 °C (90.5–93.6 °F). Across communities, total mortality increased 18.1% during heat wave days compared with non-heat-wave days [95% confidence interval (CI): −5.3%, 47.3%], with the highest risk in Jaipur (29.9% [95% CI: 24.6%, 34.9%]). Evidence of effect modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season) was limited. Findings indicate health risks associated with heat waves in communities with high baseline temperatures. Results can inform heat wave-health assessments in temperate regions in future, and improve our understanding of temperature-health associations under climate change. Further investigation of potential effect modification by heat wave characteristics is needed.

Climate change impact factors in ECOWAS

Abstract Appropriate responses to climate change in the agriculture sector are dependent on knowledge of the status and trends of the factors of the climate change impact chain in the sector. The objective of the study was to broadly assess key human, environmental, and biophysical factors in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), mainly within the decade following the launching of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP). This was done through a review of literature and analysis of data mainly from international databases. The status of and changes in these factors were generally unsatisfactory. Population growth rate was high. Average daily maximum temperatures were projected to rise by up to 3.5⁰C by 2050. Up to 35 % of the lands were estimated to be severely to very severely degraded. Internal renewable water resources per capita were below international requirements in many countries of ECOWAS. Renewable water resources per capita were more abundant but decreased over years. The substantial arable land and renewable water resources and carbon stored in soil (23503 Tg t) and forest biomass (6304 Tg t) are attributes of ECOWAS. Agricultural production was higher in the Gulf of Guinea zone compared to the Sudano-Sahelian zone but yields of some crops were higher in the Sudano-Sahelian zone. Food security status was unsatisfactory across ECOWAS although the production of major crops (in most cases), livestock, fisheries and aquaculture increased. The increase for aquaculture was dramatic (847%). Increase in production was mainly due to increased crop area harvested or livestock numbers. Policies should be revisited, institutions strengthened and financial investments made for ECOWAS to realize its potential to significantly contribute to food security and carbon storage.

Monitoring Heat-Related Illness through Syndromic Surveillance in Los Angeles County

ObjectiveTo analyze Los Angeles County’s (LAC) extreme heat season in 2018 and evaluate the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists’ (CSTE) syndrome query for heat-related-illness (HRI) in Los Angeles County (LAC)IntroductionLAC experienced several days of record-breaking temperatures during the summer of 2018. Downtown Los Angeles temperatures soared to 108°F in July with an average daily maximum of 92°F. Extreme heat events such as these can pose major risks to human health. Syndromic surveillance can be a useful tool in providing near real-time surveillance of HRI. In 2014, a working group was formed within the CSTE Climate Change Subcommittee to define and analyze HRI. The workgroup’s goal was to provide guidance to public health professionals in adapting and implementing an HRI syndrome surveillance query. The Acute Communicable Disease Control Program’s (ACDC) Syndromic Surveillance Unit utilized CSTE’s HRI query to provide surveillance during the extreme heat season in 2018 in LAC. Additional modifications to the CSTE query were evaluated for potential improvements towards characterizing HRI trends.MethodsFrom May 1 to September 30, 2018, Emergency Department (ED) data were queried for cases using the CSTEs definition for HRI. The queries consisted of key word searches within the chief complaint (CC) data field, and, if available, the diagnosis data fields. The query was derived from the CSTE HRI query published in 20161. In addition, ACDC explored the utility of expanding the CSTE syndrome definition to include additional chief complaints commonly associated with HRI such as dehydration and syncope. Both queries were applied on all participating syndromic EDs in LAC alongside daily high temperature data trends. Local temperature data for downtown Los Angeles weather station KCQT were taken from the Weather Underground website. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated for each query during the heat season. Similarly, both queries were also applied during colder months from October 1, 2017 to April 30, 2018 for comparison. Lastly, results for dehydration and syncope were independently assessed apart from other HRI query terms during both heat seasons and colder months.ResultsThe CSTE HRI query and the query with the added terms yielded 1,258 and 63,332 ED visits, respectively, during the heat season. On July 6, the maximum daily temperature peaked at 108 °F; the HRI and the query with the added terms yielded 136 and 618 ED visits, respectively. The HRI query and the HRI query with the added terms had a correlation coefficient of 0.714 (p <0.0001) and 0.427 (p <0.0001), respectively. During colder months, the CSTE HRI query and the query with the added terms yielded 377 and 86,008, respectively, with correlation coefficients of 0.342 (p < 0.0001) and 0.133 (p < 0.052). The syncope-only query saw no variation in HRI classified encounters throughout the heat season (mean: 328; min: 228; max: 404) or colder months (mean: 328; min: 261; max: 404) with correlation coefficients of 0.238 (p = 0.003) and 0.155 (p = 0.024), respectively. Similarly, the dehydration-only query saw no variation in HRI classified encounters throughout the heat season (mean: 96; min: 58; max: 258) or colder months (mean: 94; min: 60; max: 160) with correlation coefficients of 0.596 (p < 0.0001) and -0.016 (p = 0.822).ConclusionsThe CSTE HRI query proved to be a strong indicator for HRI, and the addition of terms associated with dehydration and syncope to the CSTE HRI query weakened the correlation with temperature. Compared to the original CSTE HRI query, the added terms yielded a 4934% increase in HRI classified encounters during the heat season; however, these were likely due to causes other than HRI -- adding the extra terms resulted in a weaker correlation with temperature. Additionally, the comparative analysis showed that, with the added terms, the volume of HRI encounters was larger during colder months than hotter months suggesting misclassification of non-HRI illnesses. Surveillance of HRI has proven to be difficult because many of the HRI symptoms are too commonly associated with non-HRI conditions which would explain the weaker correlations when adding additional chief complaints associated with HRI. In conclusion, the CSTE syndrome definition for HRI proved to be the most robust query for HRI during the heat season. Case counts of HRI are difficult due to symptom overlap with many other medical conditions. However, syndromic surveillance using the CSTE HRI query is useful for trend analysis in near real-time during heat events.

Impacts of consecutive bleaching events and local algal abundance on transplanted coral colonies in the Florida Keys

Climate change threatens many marine ecosystems, including coral reefs and the thousands of organisms that inhabit these reefs. Fluctuations in sea surface temperatures trigger bleaching events in coral colonies that lead to increased coral mortality and reef degradation. To combat the decline in coral cover, many researchers have focused on transplanting coral colonies to better understand which species are best adapted to these environmental changes. This current study examined the impacts of two consecutive thermal stress events on transplanted coral colonies in the middle Florida Keys within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Coral fragments of two species (Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea) were transplanted on seven reef sites. Transplanted colonies were monitored for evidence of coral bleaching during quarterly sampling trips from June 2013 through June 2017. Bleaching was only observed during the late summer of 2014 and 2015 when Degree Heating Weeks exceeded 4 °C-weeks. Results indicate that P. astreoides colonies had significantly higher bleaching than S. siderea colonies. Reefs differed in their proportion of bleached and unbleached corals for P. asteroides, but these reefs did not differ in their average daily maximum temperature or Degree Heating Weeks. However, individual corals that did bleach had a higher average fleshy algal abundance (Dictyota spp.) surrounding them than those corals that remained unbleached. Corals that bleached the first year and survived were no more or less likely to bleach the second year. These findings suggest that resilience to bleaching differs not only by coral species but may also be influenced by the local abundance of fleshy algal species.

Northern Bobwhite Chick Survival and Effects of Weather

ABSTRACTReliable vital rates for all life stages are necessary to identify limiting factors in wildlife populations and inform sound wildlife management. The difficulty associated with capturing and tagging precocial young, such as northern bobwhite chicks (Colinus virginianus), and linking variation in recruitment to ecological conditions has contributed to significant knowledge gaps in their population ecology. During 1999–2017, we captured and patagial‐tagged ≤12‐day‐old bobwhite chicks (n = 3,576) and estimated their survival from time of capture (Jun–Sep) to fall and winter (Nov and Jan) recapture and winter (Feb) recovery. We used Burnham's model implemented in Program MARK to integrate mark‐recapture and dead‐recovery (via harvest) data to estimate survival for the 19‐year study. By including weather covariates, we also evaluated explicit hypotheses related to temperature and precipitation effects on chick survival. We found inter‐annual, intra‐annual, and intra‐seasonal variation in chick survival with an average annual daily survival estimate of 0.9887 (95% CI = 0.9321, 0.9918). Precipitation amount and number of precipitation (>0.635 cm) events during the first 4 weeks post‐tagging decreased the daily survival rate of chicks curvilinearly. Average minimum daily temperature and maximum daily temperature effects on survival were negligible, but an interaction between minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation during the first 14 days post‐tagging affected survival. We recommend population modelers incorporate intra‐ and inter‐annual variation in chick survival to improve predictions. Observed variation in chick survival rates portends a significant opportunity to improve population management for bobwhites and other game birds. © 2019 The Wildlife Society

Lyapunov Exponents and Temperature Transitions in a Warming Australia

AbstractMultiple potential tipping points in the Earth system that involve alternative states have been identified that are susceptible to anthropogenic forcing. Past events—from millions of years ago to within the last century—have manifest as abrupt changes in climatic indicators such as the temperature record. Recent unprecedented heat waves in Australia, their associated devastation, and the considerations above provide motivation to ask whether the Australian daily maximum temperature record has been subject to such abrupt changes. Using a new diagnostic tool—the Lyapunov plot—here it is shown that multiple temperature transitions have occurred with respect to the maximum daily temperature record in widely separated locations in Australia over the last 150 years. All maximum Lyapunov exponents are positive in sign, indicating that the transitions are chaos-to-chaos transitions, and that the different climate modes identified are likely to be manifestations of distinct chaotic attractors. Many of these events occur simultaneously with transitions or extremes in the major natural cycles affecting Australia’s climate, but this observation is not universal. It is known that chaos-to-chaos transitions can result in changes in the value(s) of the state variable(s) that can range from subtle to severe. Although the identified transitions are not catastrophic, this observation does not rule out the possibility of severe, unprecedented, and discontinuous increases in average daily maximum temperatures occurring in Australia at any time within the next few decades.

The Observed Effects of Utility-Scale Photovoltaics on Near-Surface Air Temperature and Energy Balance

AbstractUtility-scale solar power plants are a rapidly growing component of the renewable energy sector. While most agree that solar power can decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of photovoltaic (PV) systems on surface energy exchanges and near-surface meteorology are not well understood. This study presents data from two eddy covariance observational towers, placed within and adjacent to a utility-scale PV array in southern Arizona. The observational period (October 2017–July 2018) includes the full range of annual temperature variation. Average daily maximum 1.5-m air temperature at the PV array was 1.3°C warmer than the reference (i.e., non-PV) site, whereas no significant difference in 1.5-m nocturnal air temperature was observed. PV modules captured the majority of solar radiation and were the primary energetically active surface during the day. Despite the removal of energy by electricity production, the modules increased daytime net radiation Q* available for partitioning by reducing surface albedo. The PV modules shift surface energy balance partitioning away from upward longwave radiation and heat storage and toward sensible heat flux QH because of their low emissivity, low heat capacity, and increased surface area and roughness, which facilitates more efficient QH from the surface. The PV modules significantly reduce ground heat flux QG storage and nocturnal release, as the soil beneath the modules is well shaded. Our work demonstrates the importance of targeted observational campaigns to inform process-based understanding associated with PV systems. It further establishes a basis for observationally based PV energy balance models that may be used to examine climatic effects due to large-scale deployment.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAXIMUM PERMISSIBLE CONCENTRATIONS AND LEVEL OF HEALTH RISK FOR AIR POLLUTANTS

There was executed the complex assessment of air pollution in the city Novokuibyshevsk in 2014. There were outlined basic chemicals exceeding hygienic standards, as well as causing both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk. Average concentrations of pollutants were shown to fail to exceed the average daily maximum permissible concentration, and on the basis of this air pollution index in the city of Novokuibyshevsk was the low in 2014. However, air pollution in the city of Novokuibyshevsk decreased not due to the reduction of the concentration of priority pollutants, but as a result of the revision of the admissible values for formaldehyde concentrations. Individual carcinogenic risks to the health of children under 18 years according to hexavalent chromium, benzene and formaldehyde exceeded the border of maximum permissible risk, and were attributed to the third reference range of risk values in accordance with the R 2.1.10.1920-04. The carcinogenic risk to the health of adults and the population of the city of Novokuibyshevsk as a whole was in the third reference range boundaries only for hexavalent chromium. However, the overall carcinogenic risk for health of children aged up to 18 years amounted to 1.18∙10-3 and moved into a fourth reference range boundaries. The total index of danger with all substances, the content of which was monitored in the ambient air in the city of Novokuibyshevsk, accounted for 17.74 and also demanded measures to reduce air pollution in the near future.

On the update of the sanitary classification of objects of oil production, preparation and primary oil refining (from the experience of designing of sanitary protective areas)

There are given results of generalization of designing materials for sanitary protective areas of objects of the oil production, preparation and primary oil refining. It is shown that as a result of manufacturing technology enhancement, renewal of the hardware park and implementation of air-security actions aiming at exhaust fumes reduction and the reasonable use of passing oil gas, considerable changes happened over the last decade as regarding the impact of objects on the atmospheric air and population health. The accumulated expertise of designing and concordance of the projects of sanitary protective areas for the oil production, preparation and primary oil refining objects confirms that for the majority of objects of approximate sizes of sanitary protective areas determined by the actual sanitary norms and regulations are excessive. Single and average daily maximum concentration limits as well as allowed levels of cancerogenic and non-cancerogenic risks for the health of the population are provided at the distances from the borders of construction sites which are considerably less than the ones determined by the sanitary classification. Calculation data is confirmed by results of the systematic instrumental research. There are given guidelines to introduce changes in the sanitary norms and regulations. For a number of objects it is suggested to keep the existing classification.

Photosynthesis, respiration, and growth patterns of Rhizophora stylosa seedlings in relation to growth temperature

Rhizophora stylosa Griff. exhibits thermal acclimatization of leaf respiration, but does not maintain high photosynthetic performance under new growth temperatures. Mangrove plants are distributed across the majority of the world’s tropical and subtropical coastlines. How they respond to new growth temperatures is poorly understood. To obtain this information, we collected Rhizophora stylosa Griff. diaspores from a subtropical region with average daily mean and maximum temperatures of 24.0 and 26.7 °C. After 1-year-old seedlings had been grown in four glasshouse chambers at an air temperature of 15, 20, 25, or 30 °C for about 50 days, we evaluated photosynthesis, respiration, and growth. Seedlings grown at 15 and 20 °C showed PSII photoinhibition, especially in newly emerged leaves. The assimilation rate was greatest at 25 °C. Thermal acclimatization of respiration was observed at 20–30 °C in both newly emerged and pre-existing leaves, was unclear in stems, and was absent in roots. Stem growth rate was greatest at 25 °C, but seedlings grown at 30 °C produced the largest number of new leaves and marginally decreased biomass allocation to roots, which lacked thermal acclimatization capacity. These results indicate that R. stylosa growing in subtropical regions adapts its photosynthesis to the average daily mean or maximum temperatures, and minimizes carbon loss due to warm temperatures by use of the thermal acclimatization capacity of leaf respiration and plasticity of biomass allocation, which contribute to optimizing growth performance.

Effect of statins on the association between high temperature and all-cause mortality in a socioeconomically disadvantaged population: a cohort study

High temperature increases all-cause mortality. Thermoregulatory ability is impaired in persons with elevated serum cholesterol, but can be improved by the administration of statins, even in the short-term. We investigated whether the impact of high temperature (≥24 °C) on all-cause mortality among socioeconomically disadvantaged adults with a current or past indication for a statin is attenuated by current use of a statin with temperature dependence, by using claims data from five US Medicaid programs supplemented with Medicare claims for dual-enrollees and meteorological data from 1999–2010. We identified 3,508,948 persons (3,181,752 person-years) in a 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort. The incidence rate of all-cause mortality (deaths per 1,000 person-years) was 21.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21.6 to 22.3) in current statin users and 30.1 (95% CI: 30.2 to 30.6) in former users. The adjusted odds ratios of mortality for current vs. former statin use were statistically significantly lower than 1.0, suggesting a protective effect of current statin use, on days with high temperature, with either daily average temperature or daily maximum temperature, and declined as daily average temperature increased from 29 °C and daily maximum temperature increased from 34 °C. These results were robust to the adjustment for daily relative humidity.

Regional Decadal Climate Predictions Using an Ensemble of WRF Parameterizations Driven by the MIROC5 GCM

AbstractRegional climate models (RCMs) are expected to provide better representations of the climate dynamics because of their higher spatial resolutions. Here, we generated an ensemble of decadal (2006–36) RCM predictions for the area of Israel, which spans a considerable climatic gradient and comprises complex terrain. We used the WRF Model forced by the MIROC5 global climate model (GCM). The ensemble was generated by choosing different combinations of radiation, microphysics, surface layer, and planetary boundary layer parameterizations. The simulation results were compared with meteorological station data for the first simulated decade. For the minimum surface temperature, all the RCM configurations performed better than the driving GCM, while for the maximum surface temperature, only three out of eight configurations improved the predictions. The RCM configurations had higher errors in predicting the precipitation, but four configurations had comparable errors to the GCM. For the next two decades, the ensemble average predicts an increase of 0.51° and 0.40°C decade−1 for the average daily minimum and maximum surface temperatures, respectively. No significant change is predicted in the precipitation. We found that all the parameterizations affect the predictions of the surface temperatures and precipitation [e.g., the CAM radiation scheme simulates colder temperatures than the RRTM for GCMs (RRTMG)] but the PBL and surface layer scheme has the largest effect on the errors. Spectral nudging was found to have a considerable effect on the deviations of the precipitation predicted by the WRF configurations from the predictions of the GCM and a much smaller effect on the surface temperature predictions.