Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling

Xiaorui Tian,Wenbin Cui,Lifu Shu,Xuezheng Zong

doi:10.3390/f10080611

Abstract

Projecting the burn probability (BP) under future climate scenarios would provide a scientific basis for the implementation of forest fire adaptation technology. This study compared the changes in the climate, fire weather, and burn probability during the fire season in Daxing’anling, China. A burn probability model was established and used to simulate the daily fire occurrence and spread at baseline (1971–2000) and into the 2030s (2021–2050) based on the outputs from five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2M, Had GEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and Nor ESM1-M) under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The results showed that the average daily maximum temperature in the fire season will be increased by 2.1 °C (+16.6%) in the 2030s compared with the baseline and precipitation in the fire season will be increased by 7.1%. The average fire weather index (FWI) of the fire season in the 2030s will be increased by 4.2%, but this change is not significant. There will be 39 fires per year in the 2030s, representing an increase of 11.4%. The accuracy of simulated burned areas was 71.2% for the 1991–2010 period. The simulated and observed burned areas showed similar interannual fluctuations during period 1971–2010. The potential burned areas in the 2030s will increase by 18.8% over those in the baseline period and the BP will increase by 19.4%. The implementation of proactive fire management in areas with high predicted BP values will be key for an effective mitigation of future wildfire impacts.

Highlights

The effects of climate warming on forest ecosystems are becoming increasingly visible across the globe [1,2]
The fire danger in the region would increase under the SEARS climate scenario in the future [45,46]
Tian et al projected that the potential burned areas in northeast China may be under the CGCM3 B1 scenario and to decrease by 230% under the HadCM3 A2 scenario, which increased by 10%–18% in 2071–2100, but this prediction was based on fire weather indices and this resulted from simulations of the Landis model [31]

Summary

Introduction

The effects of climate warming on forest ecosystems are becoming increasingly visible across the globe [1,2]. Changing fire regimes due to climate are among the greatest threats to ecosystems and society [3] It is widely accepted based on data from the last few decades and model simulations that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity [4]. Wildfires in federally managed forests of the western US have increased substantially in recent decades, with large (>1000 acre) fires in the decade through 2012 over five times as frequent (450% increase) and burned areas over 10 times as great (930% increase) as in the 1970s and early 1980s [10].The projected continued growth in the 10-year average cost of fire suppression through 2025 is rising to nearly $1.8 billion [11]

Methods

Discussion

Conclusion