Impacts of ENSO events on forest fire weather of China

Abstract

The ENSO events affect climate and fire danger of China. It would be helpful for improving fire danger forecast to understand the impacts of ENSO events on fire weather for various ecological zones in the country. We calculated the fire weather index (FWI) using the daily climatic dataset (V3.0) of international exchange weather stations in China during 1951-2016. The burned areas in forests for each ecological zone in 2001-2016 were derived from MODIS fire products. Temperature, precipitation, FWI and burned areas in fire season were estimated for each ecological zone by ENSO events (weak, medium, strong, and super strong El Niño events and weak, medium, and strong La Niña events). The results showed that there were 19 El Niño events and 14 La Niña events during 1950-2016. The average daily maximum temperature of the spring fire season increased significantly in the northwestern region with the influence of strong or super strong El Niño event, while the temperature reduced significantly in the medium El Niño event for mid-temperate semi-arid grassland. Precipitation in fire season generally increased in El Niño events in southern and southwestern forest regions. It would be reduced in most areas affected by the low and medium intensity La Niña event, but be increased during the strong La Nina event. The fire weather indices of southern forest regions decreased due to the weak El Niño event. The FWI of the northern forest regions increased with the strong or super strong El Niño event, and reduced in the southern and southwestern forest areas. There was a significant spatial difference on the FWI for some ecological zones with the impacts of the El Niño/La Niña events. The burned areas showed a consistent change trend with seasonal severity rating (SSR) during 2001-2016 when the SSR changed significantly for the regions of deciduous broad-leaved forest in humid/semihumid areas of warm temperate zone, broad-leaved forest in the middle north subtropical humid areas, and broad-leaved forest in tropical and subtropical humid areas. The burned areas in the rest regions were not affected by the ENSO events.