Average Annual Growth Rate Research Articles

Estimation of Production and Consumption of Particle Board and Medium Density Fibre Board in India during the Year 2019-20

and Shyam MukundumThe study was carried out to understand the current status of particle board (PB) and medium density fibre (MDF) board industries of India. A survey was conducted covering 49% of particle board industries and 89% of MDF industries in India. The status and trend of particle board and MDF products were analyzed to estimate future demand and consumption of particle board and MDF in India. The estimated production of particle board and MDF during the year 2019-20 is 2.63 million cum and 1.47 million cum respectively. However, consumption of particle board and MDF was 2.91 million cum and 1.68 million cum. The import of particle board and medium density fibre was 0.29 million cum and 0.26 million cum respectively and the export of PB and MDF was 0.01 million cum and 0.03 million cum respectively during the year 2019-20. It is projected that the average annual growth rate (AAGR) of production will be 6.5% for particle board and 6.1% for MDF.

State Policy in the Field of Agricultural Development: Current Issues of Law and Practice

The article analyzes some legal aspects of state policy in the field of agricultural development. The subject of the study is the legal norms regulating state policy in the field of agriculture. The purpose of the work is to analyze international and national legislation and formulate conclusions and proposals based on this analysis to improve regulatory legal regulation in the field of agricultural development in our country. The research was conducted using general scientific, private and special methods, such as induction, deduction, synthesis, analysis, analogies, formal legal and others. The relevance of the study is connected with the development of the most important issue - the achievement of the country's food sovereignty. The article analyzes the provisions of the new Strategy for the development of agro-industrial and fisheries complexes for the period up to 2030, where a serious emphasis is placed on import substitution as one of the key guidelines for the development of Russia. It seems obvious that it is necessary to continue improving regulatory legal regulation and strategic planning in the direction under study. To ensure the average annual growth rate of the agro-industrial complex at the level of 3%, as planned, it is necessary to identify growth factors and introduce new or expand existing mechanisms of state support. We consider the adoption of the Strategy to be one of the most important steps in the implementation of state policy in the development of agriculture and the entire agro-industrial complex, but work in this direction continues. The key result to be achieved is the sustainable development of agriculture. The author notes the intensification of work on the implementation of the Russian scientific and technical program for the development of agriculture and promising areas of state policy.

Analysis of the factors associated with agricultural GDP in Mexico

Objective: To detect factors of production which can explain the total value of agricultural production (agricultural GDP) and to carry out a descriptive analysis. Methodology: A multiple linear regression adjustment and a descriptive analysis of the variables were carried out, using the available information. Results: Five variables have a significant association with agricultural GDP. In the last 20 years, the agricultural sector has experienced an exponential economic growth, with a 7.7% annual growth rate (AAGR). About 60% of the total production value is provided only by 7 states. Agricultural exports have increased from 2015, as a result of the USA demands for Mexican fruits and vegetables. Implications: The information available about the state of agriculture in Mexico makes it possible to understand trends and take actions to increase the agricultural GDP. The analysis is limited by the lack of information about many variables. Conclusions: Sown areas have decreased and the factors of production analyzed maintain a positive average annual growth rate, which indicates a process of transition from extensive crops (such as grains and cereals) to intensively exploited crops (such as fruits and vegetables). An investment aimed to generate agricultural data is needed

PRODUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLY FUEL IN INDONESIAN REFINERY

Worldwide crude supplies are experiencing a mod- est trend toward heavier and high sulfur content. The average annual demand growth rate for light products (gasoline, kerosene and diesel oil) is higher than that for residual fuel oil, Therefore, converting additional bot- toms into light product by either thermal or catalytic pro- cesses will be needed. Vehicles and fuels have been developed simulta- neously and nowadays vehicles demand a very sophisti- cated fuel indeed. Environmental restriction, and efforts to minimize the pollutant problem by exhaust gases are causing design and changes in cars that in turn are hav- ing some effects on fuel quality. To reduce exhaust emission by fuel combustion, the specification of gasoline and diesel oil is now stricter. Various term in the models address qualities of the re- formulated gasoline, such as benzene, total aromatics and olefin content, RVP, the T of distillation range, sul- fur content, and oxygenate contents (Table 1)18.13.16). Diesel oil specification is limited as follows: aromatics, polyaromatics, sulfur content, T and cetane number (Table 2) (19.23,26) To improve the specification of commercial gasoline into the stricter specification of reformulated gasoline, refiners are forced in install new facilities to increase the production for high-octane mogas components. For the stricter diesel oil specification in the years 2000's, over 50% by volume of the total gas oil components (ex- cept hydrocracked gas oil) must undergo improvement by hydrotreating processes in order to achieve a suitable specification. In Indonesia, there are seven refineries with total crude oil capacity of 1,063 MBCD to produce fuel oils, lube base stocks and petrochemical products. Process- ing units and fuel oil production in Indonesia's refineries are given in Table 3 and 4, respectively. The production of gasoline and diesel oil components is review in this paper. Influence of hydrocarbon composition of those fuel components on their performances is discussed. A brief discussion is offered on the impact of the changing specification of gasoline and diesel oil on the refinery configuration.

ROLE OF CATALYTIC REFORMING PROCESS FOR GASOLINE PRODUCTION IN ASEAN REFINERIES

The crude oils processed in refineries range from sweet crudes, such as Southeast Asian light Crudes, to sour crude, suck as Middle East. Far East, and Persian Gulf. For the period 1992-2005, the average annual demand growth rate for light products (gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil) is higher than residual fuel oil. These data clearly show that the need will continue for converting additional bottom into light products, by both thermal or catalytic conversions, The passage of the Clean Air Act Amendement of 1990 in the USA has forced American refineries to install new facilities to comply with stricter specifications for fuels such as gasoline and diesel oil such as Asia-Pacific, California Air Resources Board (CARB) and European Commission (EC), Various terms in the models address qualities of the gasoline blended such as benzene, total aromatics and olefm contents, RVP, the T90 of distillation range, sulphur content, and oxygenates content45, Motor gasoline is essentially a complex mixture of hydrocarbons distilling about 40°C and 220°C and consisting of compounds generally in the range C, to C2. Gasoline components can be produced by both the distillation of crude oil and the conversion of the crude oil fraction. Catalytic reforming process using bifunctional catalyst converts low octane number heavy naphthas into reformate with a high octane number. Bi-functional catalyst containing metal site (Pt, Pt/Ge) and acid site (A1,O,CI) are generally used. The balance is most important in a bifunctional reforming catalyst, and in fact it has to be different for different duties"l The end point of the naphtha feedstock is usually limited to about 185°C, partially because of increased coke deposition on the catalyst. The reforming cata- lyst exhibits a sensitivity to the conventional impurities of naphtha feed, such as: water (moisture), organic compounds of chlor, nitrogen and sulphur, and organometallic compounds (lead, copper, iron). Sintering of the metal phase becomes effective only beyond 500°C as measured by lowering of the dispersion of platinum atom condition, at the same time coke formation on the catalyst incrases tool71, The life of the catalyst will depend both on its stability and regenerability, expressed either in months or year, or in tonnage treated for unit weight of catalyst. This paper presents briefly composition of gasoline pool, specification of commercial gasoline in Indonesia as well as ASEAN refmeries, the catalyst improvements, catalyst deactivation and catalyst re- generation of the reforming process.

PRODUCTION OF UNLEADED GASOLINE IN ASEAN COUNTRIES

Worldwide crude supply is experiencing a mod- est trend towards heavier and high sulfur content. The Middle East, being traditionally the world's ma- jor oil exporting region, will continue to be the princi- pal supplier of lower quality crude's in the future", For the period 1992-2005, the average annual demand growth rate for light products ( gasoline, kero- sene, diesel oil) is higher than for residual fuel oil21, These data clearly show that the need will continue for converting additional bottom fraction into light products, by both thermal or catalytic conversions. The passage of the Clean Air Act Amendement of 1990 in the USA has forced American refineries to install new facilities to comply with stricter speci- fications for fuels such as gasoline and diesel oil such as Asia-Pacific, California Air Resources Board (CARB) and European Commission (EC) [3.4. 5). Various terms in the models address qualities and the gasoline blended such as benzene, total aromatics and olefin contents, RVP, the T90 of distillation range, sulphur content, and oxygenates content. Comparison of fue l specifications between ASEAN countries and reformulated fuels and typi- cal compositions of gasoline and gas oil components for production of commercial unleaded gasoline is included in this report.

A Machine-Learning-Based Bibliometric Analysis of the Scientific Literature on Anal Cancer.

Simple SummarySquamous-cell carcinoma of the anus, being a rare cancer, requires national and international collaborations, networking, organizational proficiency and leadership to overcome barriers towards the implementation of clinical trials to establish improved standards of care treatment strategies and the conduction of translational research projects to shed light into its biology and molecular characterization. The purpose of the present study is to obtain a global frame of the scientific literature related to anal cancer, through a bibliometric analysis of the published articles during the last 20 years (2000–2020), exploring trends and common patterns in research, tracking collaboration and networks to foresee future directions in basic and clinical research. Squamous-cell carcinoma of the anus (ASCC) is a rare disease. Barriers have been encountered to conduct clinical and translational research in this setting. Despite this, ASCC has been a prime example of collaboration amongst researchers. We performed a bibliometric analysis of ASCC-related literature of the last 20 years, exploring common patterns in research, tracking collaboration and identifying gaps. The electronic Scopus database was searched using the keywords “anal cancer”, to include manuscripts published in English, between 2000 and 2020. Data analysis was performed using R-Studio 0.98.1091 software. A machine-learning bibliometric method was applied. The bibliometrix R package was used. A total of 2322 scientific documents was found. The average annual growth rate in publication was around 40% during 2000–2020. The five most productive countries were United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), France, Italy and Australia. The USA and UK had the greatest link strength of international collaboration (22.6% and 19.0%). Two main clusters of keywords for published research were identified: (a) prevention and screening and (b) overall management. Emerging topics included imaging, biomarkers and patient-reported outcomes. Further efforts are required to increase collaboration and funding to sustain future research in the setting of ASCC.

Research on the design of serious illness insurance scheme in Shanghai based on micro-simulation

BackgroundUrban and rural residents’ basic medical insurance (URRBMI) is an institutional arrangement for rural residents and unemployed urban residents in China. The serious illness medical insurance system (SIMIS) was established to provide additional medical cover. At present, the SIMIS payment method in China is based on large expenses, and only a few areas, such as Shanghai, pay according to the treatment of serious diseases. This study aims to simulate and analyse the effect of the two payment methods on SIMIS in Shanghai.MethodsWe developed a micro-simulation model to predict the number and characteristics of SIMIS participants among urban and rural residents in Shanghai and to simulate the process of medical treatment, medical consumption, and medical insurance payments for each insured person from 2020 to 2025. We then summarised and analysed the payment compensation effect, and compared it with Shanghai’s current policies.ResultsThe payment of SIMIS according to high expenses, the total medical expenses of seriously ill patients show an increasing trend, with an average annual growth rate of 3.56%. The URRBMI fund payment covers 56%–58% of total medical expenses, and the SIMIS fund covers 5%–7% of the total medical expenses. Both cover 62%–63% of total medical expenses. Self-payment under SIMIS covers 22%–23% of the total medical expenses, total self-payment covers 14%–15% of the total medical expenses, and the medical expenses borne by individuals cover 36%–38% of the total medical expenses.The fund expenditure is 213 million yuan and average annual cost borne by individual patients ranges from 40 000 to 60 000 yuan.ConclusionsThe policy of designing SIMIS according to national guidelines does not meet the development needs of Shanghai. Shanghai should take the current policy of paying compensation according to the treatment of serious illness as the policy basis, consider the security needs of patients with large medical expenses outside the scope of protection, and adjust policies appropriately to prevent poverty caused by illness.

Water ecological security assessment and spatial autocorrelation analysis of prefectural regions involved in the Yellow River Basin

To have a more comprehensive understanding of the water ecological security status of the Yellow River Basin, this paper constructs a water ecological security evaluation index system founded on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. The indicators are selected by considering factors such as meteorological conditions, population, economy, water resources, water environment, water ecology, land ecology, ecological service functions, pollution control, and capital investment. Then, the “single index quantification-multiple indices syntheses-poly-criteria integration (SMI-P) method was used to determine the water ecological security index (WESI) of 62 cities in the Yellow River Basin, to classify the safety levels, and combined with the spatial autocorrelation analysis to study the regional characteristics. The results prove that: (a) The overall water ecological security of the Yellow River Basin is relatively poor. Half of the 62 cities have reached the second-level warning level, and most of them are concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the basin. (b) Wetland area is a long-term key factor in the construction of water ecological safety, and the greening rate of built-up areas has an increasing impact on water ecological safety. (c) The overall water ecological security index shows a slow upward trend, with the annual average growth rate was 0.59%. (d) The water ecological security of 62 cities in the Yellow River Basin shows significant spatial autocorrelation. The findings can offer a practical basis for the water ecological management to promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.

Against the mainstream: Field evidence on a positive link between media consumption and the demand for sports among children

AbstractThe physical health of individuals is degenerating worldwide. The decrease in sporting activities among young people appears critical, as most life habits evolve during childhood. Among others, the rising share of media consumption among children is thought to be a primary determinant of the decline in demand for sports participation. Consequently, the mainstream of past studies on demand for media consumption and health argue with a “per se” negative link between TV consumption and physical activities. To shed new light on this, we investigate the impact of the Japanese animated cartoon (anime) “Attack No 1” on youth volleyball participation in Germany in the mid‐1990s. We base our estimations on official club membership data (1985–2007) and use a difference‐in‐differences (DID) approach to empirically estimate the anime's causal effect on youth volleyball participation. With an average annual growth rate of 22.75%, the results show a strong short‐term volleyball boom among young girls after the anime. Numbers also increased slightly among male adolescents. Correlations did not suggest solid long‐term effects. However, based on the available data, no causal statements regarding long‐term effects were possible either.Additionally, we found no evidence that suggests substitution effects. Instead, accumulated youth female enrollments rose by 2.1% during the broadcasting time. Spill‐over effects on non‐ball‐based sports have not been identified. We conclude that TV content portraying sports might work as a nudge to increase sports demand among young people. Thus, the production or streaming of sport‐related animated cartoons should be incentivized to a greater extent.

Energy Demand Modeling for the Eastern Economic Corridor of Thailand: A Case Study of Rayong Province

This paper assesses long-term energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Rayong Province which is one of the three provinces in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) of Thailand. LEAP (the Low Emissions Analysis Platform) is used to project final energy demand for each economic sector by using the 2019 data as a base year. In the model, we defined the energy consumption into two scenarios; a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a low carbon scenario (LCS), to see different energy demand and CO2 emissions up to the year 2050. There are different assumptions between BAU and LCS in each sector such as energy efficiency improvement, shift to modern energy, the share of high energy-efficient vehicles, etc. In the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption needed by Rayong Province will increase with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 3.49%, while only 1.52% for the LCS. CO2 emissions in the LCS will be reduced by 41.7% by 2050 when compared with the BAU scenario. Most interestingly, even though energy demand in Rayong Province will be increasing up to 2050, CO2 emissions will peak about 2035 and then reduce. The industry and transport sectors are the most final energy consumption and the highest CO2 emissions. This is because EEC is driven by a production-based economy. The solution for this is to transform to alternative energies sourcing, shift all productions to sustainable ones, restructure the industrial estate to become the eco-industrial and GHG emissions management, which will also result in obvious carbon reduction. This kind of information will be beneficial to energy demand conservation and GHG emission mitigation at the provincial level which will depend on the energy policies initiated and implemented in the future.

ECONOMICS OF TOURISM INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT

The authors of the study analyzed the current state and prospects of development of the tourism industry in Ukraine and the world. The authors note that in the conditions of military aggression of the Russian Federation Ukraine suffers significant economic, financial and social losses. According to many experts, Ukraine’s economy expects a significant reduction (approximately 30-45%) of GDP. In addition, due to the significant level of globalization of the international economy and the close economic interconnections of economic systems of national economies, there will be a significant decline (decline) in economic development not only in Eastern Europe but in the world as a whole. Thus, today the issues of directions of economic recovery of Ukraine’s economic potential, as well as the place and role of the tourism industry in the postwar recovery of the domestic economy are becoming increasingly important in Ukraine. The purpose of the study is to develop guidelines for the systematization of risk factors for domestic tourism, as well as to determine the directions and vectors of the restoration of the tourism business in Ukraine in the postwar period. The authors of the study noted that according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), tourism is one of the most dynamic sectors of global exports in the world. The average annual growth rate of the global tourism industry averaged about 5% per year. By 2022, tourism provided up to 10% of gross world income and every tenth job in the world is directly or indirectly generated by tourism. However, the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has destroyed the economy of the tourism sector, leading to unprecedented consequences for jobs and businesses. The current crisis has also revealed some shortcomings in the management and readiness of the industry, as well as in the ability to respond to current challenges and threats. Restoring the confidence of tourists and participants in the tourism chain, stimulating demand and accelerating the resumption of tourism urgently requires political action at the national and international levels, as well as improved coordination. The crisis is an opportunity to rethink the development of tourism. Recovery should include transforming the sector, changing tourism destinations, transforming the tourism ecosystem, bringing innovation and investing in sustainable tourism. The authors have formed measures to restore the tourism sector in the world. The study analyzes domestic trends in the development of the domestic industry in the prewar period, identified new trends in the geography of foreign tourists, as well as summarizes the directions of recovery of the domestic tourism sector.

Current situation of pediatric clinical trials in China: focus on trials for drug marketing application and administrative approval

BackgroundResearch and development of pediatric drug faces many difficulties and pediatric clinical trials remain a challenge. Since 2011, a series of measures have been taken to encourage research, development of drugs for pediatric patients in China. In this study, we analyzed pediatric clinical trials conducted in China to provide reference for research and development of pediatric drugs and formulation of relevant policies.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional observational study of pediatric trials registered in the Drug Trial Registration and Information Publication Platform before Oct. 31, 2021. All trials that recruited children (under 18 years old as defined in China) were retrieved and general characteristics of the trials and the research drugs were extracted and analyzed. The data were extracted and statistically analyzed by excel 2010 and SPSS 22.0, respectively.ResultsThere were 588 registered pediatric clinical trials, which accounted for 3.94% of the total registered trials. The overall average annual growth rate of the number of trials from 2013 to 2020 was 14.47% (P < 0.01). Of the 588 trials included, there were 312 trials (53.06%) with only children as subjects, 127 trials (21.60%) with research drugs only for children use, and the median of target subject number was 320 with the range of 8 to 600,000. The sponsors and the principal investigators were mainly located in the eastern and northern China. 325 trials were vaccine trials, and the dosage form was mainly injection. There were 98 non-vaccine biological product trials (mainly injections), 135 chemical compound drug trials (mainly tablets), 30 traditional Chinese medicine/natural drugs (mainly granules). Indications of the non-vaccine drugs were mainly diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs and certain disorders involving the immune mechanism.ConclusionThe number of pediatric clinical trials in China has increased these years. To further promote pediatric clinical trials and motivate pediatric appropriate drug marketing application and administrative approval, conducting large pediatric clinical trials, further development of dosage forms suitable for children with special attention to neonates and prematurity, and improving uneven geographical distribution of sponsors and researchers are the current challenges.

Techno-economic analysis of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) in decarbonizing China's coal-fired power plants

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China must tackle CO2 emission from its power sector which contributes to 40% (11.8 Gt in 2019) of its total CO2 emission. Previous studies have shown that China has enough subsurface CO2 storage capacity (3,145 Gt) to store 200–300 years of CO2 emission nationwide or 600–700 years of CO2 emission from the power sector. This paper evaluates the economic benefits of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to decarbonize China's coal-fired power plants and conducts a techno-economic analysis of four scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality in China's power sector by 2050. A model of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS (CP-CCS) is used for comparing the economic competitiveness of CP-CCS with those of nuclear (NP), hydro (HP), wind (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Results show that the LCOE of CP-CCS with a CO2 transportation distance of 100 km or less and coal price below 455 CNY/t (70.54 USD/t with the exchange rate set at 1 USD = 6.45 CNY) is less than those of NP, WP and solar PV especially for a high discount rate. The cost of coal and CO2 transportation are the two greatest contributors to the LCOE of CP-CCS. In addition, LCOE is sensitive to operation time of the CP-CCS. Retrofitting an existing coal-fired power plant with CCS reduces the LCOE by 10–18% compared to a newly built CP-CCS. Furthermore, a scenario of gradual increase (average annual growth rate of 0.93%) in electricity generation by CP-CCS has a lower total cost than one where coal-fired power plants are aggressively replaced by wind and solar PV power plants. This is especially true if the coal price is low and CO2 transportation distance is short. The result is savings of trillions of CNY in costs for the power sector.

A Comparative Analysis of the Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement on the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in North and Southern Africa

COVID-19 has forced many governments to take emergency health measures which are undermining productive capacities and disrupting global supply chains. Southern and Northern Africa have been heavily impacted by such measures. According to UNCTAD statistics (2021), the average annual growth rate of exports in Northern and Southern Africa fell by 27.61% and 6.96%, respectively in 2020. Yet, the effective operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) could have limited some of the pandemic’s economic impacts. Using a computable general equilibrium model, this paper first analyzes the pandemic’s economic impact and then assesses the ability of the AfCFTA to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19. The simulation results show that the AfCFTA would mitigate the economic impact in Southern and Northern Africa. It reduces the decline in intra-regional exports by 7.87 percentage points in 2021. The study emphasizes the need to remove non-tariff barriers to amplify potential positive effects.

Evaluation for values of ecosystem service functions of cultivated seaweeds in Guangdong Province, China

Based on the yields of cultivated seaweeds of Guangdong Province in the past 20 years, this study evaluated the values of ecosystem service functions, including carbon sink and oxygen release, removal of N and Pi nutrients, and absorption of heavy metals. The results indicated that all the ecological values of cultivated seaweeds showed a rising trend from 2000 to 2019. The total ecosystem service value increased from $2.50 million in 2000 to $10.36 million in 2019 at an average annual growth rate of 8.41%. The values of carbon sink and oxygen release, removal of N and Pi nutrients and absorption of heavy metals increased from $10.71 million, $12.98 million and $1.25 million in 2000 to $41.76 million, $56.64 million and $5.25 million in 2019 respectively. Besides, the value of carbon sink and oxygen release and removing N and Pi nutrients contributed significantly to the total ecosystem service value, accounting for 41.36% and 53.15%, while the annual average value of absorption of heavy metals only accounted for 5.49%. In addition, since the market price of Saccharina japonica, Gracilaria spp. and Eucheuma denticulaturn is low, their economic profits are less than the ecological services. They should be given ecological compensations of $1.39/kg, $1.50/kg, and $1.27/kg respectively based on the market price in China. This study illustrates clearly huge ecological values of cultivated seaweeds in carbon emission reduction and improving coastal eutrophication. On the other hand, ecological compensations can promote the healthy development of seaweed cultivation industry and maximize the ecosystem service functions of seaweeds.

The Disease and Economic Burdens of Esophageal Cancer in China from 2013 to 2030: Dynamic Cohort Modeling Study.

BackgroundEsophageal cancer (EC) is the sixth leading cause of tumor-related deaths worldwide. Estimates of the EC burden are necessary and could offer evidence-based suggestions for local cancer control.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to predict the disease burden of EC in China through the estimation of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and direct medical expenditure by sex from 2013 to 2030.MethodsA dynamic cohort Markov model was developed to simulate EC prevalence, DALYs, and direct medical expenditure by sex. Input data were collected from the China Statistical Yearbooks, Statistical Report of China Children’s Development, World Population Prospects 2019, and published papers. The JoinPoint Regression Program was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of DALY rates, whereas the average annual growth rate (AAGR) was applied to analyze the changing direct medical expenditure trend over time.ResultsFrom 2013 to 2030, the predicted EC prevalence is projected to increase from 61.0 to 64.5 per 100,000 people, with annual EC cases increasing by 11.5% (from 835,600 to 931,800). The DALYs will increase by 21.3% (from 30,034,000 to 36,444,000), and the years of life lost (YLL) will account for over 90% of the DALYs. The DALY rates per 100,000 people will increase from 219.2 to 252.3; however, there was a difference between sexes, with an increase from 302.9 to 384.3 in males and a decline from 131.2 to 115.9 in females. The AAPC was 0.8% (95% CI 0.8% to 0.9%), 1.4% (95% CI 1.3% to 1.5%), and –0.7% (95% CI –0.8% to –0.7%) for both sexes, males, and females, respectively. The direct medical expenditure will increase by 128.7% (from US $33.4 to US $76.4 billion), with an AAGR of 5.0%. The direct medical expenditure is 2-3 times higher in males than in females.ConclusionsEC still causes severe disease and economic burdens. YLL are responsible for the majority of DALYs, which highlights an urgent need to establish a beneficial policy to reduce the EC burden.

ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТИ ПАРАЗИТАРНЫХ СИСТЕМ ЭХИНОКОККОЗА И МНОГОКАМЕРНОГО ЭХИНОКОККОЗА ЗА МНОГОЛЕТНИЙ ПЕРИОД В КЫРГЫЗСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКЕ

Recently, the epidemic situation for echinococcosis in the Kyrgyz Republic (KR) is quite complicated. For the period from 1990 to 2019, according to the results of a retrospective analysis, in the Kyrgyz Republic – the highest prevalence of the population was recorded in 2014 and amounted to 20,20/0000. The lowest prevalence was in 1990 and the indicator was 5,20/0000. There is a tendency towards an increase in the incidence of echinococcosis of the entire population of the Kyrgyz Republic. The average annual growth rate was 3.5%. The mechanisms of cross-infection of a large biodiversity of intermediate hosts in agricultural and natural ecosystems are realized due to fertile strains of E. granulosus, and are mediated through a circle of definitive hosts. Echinococcosis is a complex parasitic system, the structural components of which are cestodes of the genus Echinococcus at different stages of development, as well as animals and humans, which are the hosts of various stages of the parasite’s life cycle. The population of parasites is an integrating link of the parasitic system formed by a specific population of the parasite and the populations of all hosts that support its existence. The parasitic system is based on the interaction between the populations of the parasite and the hosts, developed in the course of evolution. Key words: cystic echinococcosis, alveolar echinococcosis, parasitic system, characteristics of variability, focus, morbidity

Dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China

Climate change is an urgent global issue, and the agricultural sector is one of the main contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to accurately analyze agricultural GHG emissions, this study constructed a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Chinese agriculture. We aimed to examine the trends and structure of agricultural GHG emissions, and grain production in China. Results show that (i) China's agricultural CO2 emissions will increase from 47.77 MtC in 2008 to 239.99 MtC in 2050. The input of agricultural materials is the primary source for this rise. (ii) Non-CO2 GHG emissions contribute the most to agricultural GHG, which will reach 2214.55 MtC in 2050. (iii) The total agricultural GHG emissions in China will maintain an overall upward trend from 2008 to 2050, increasing from 220 MtC in 2008–2413.64 MtC in 2050 with an average annual growth rate of 5.87%. (iv) GHG emissions from grain production will reach 919.09 MtC by the year 2050. GHG emissions per grain production and emissions per area will increase to 343.81 kgC/t, and 4.46 tC/ha by the year of 2050, respectively. These findings carry several policy implications to China's agriculture low-carbon development, such as improve the agricultural materials utilization efficiency, optimize manure management and treatment, and promote organic planting technology.

Evaluation of Water Resources Utilization Efficiency in Guangdong Province Based on the DEA–Malmquist Model

In this study, we examined the temporal and spatial trends of water utilization efficiency in the highly developed Guangdong Province based on a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and Malmquist index, trying to evaluate and predict the water utilization status in prefecture-level cities from the input–output perspective. The results showed that the water utilization efficiency in Guangdong Province in 2012–2018 was on a fluctuating upward trend, although the utilization efficiency had not reached the DEA efficiency; spatially, the water utilization efficiency in Guangdong Province was relatively high in the Pearl River Delta and the surrounding cities, but low in the Western Guangdong region; in the perspective of efficiency decomposition factors, technological change was the most pervasive driving force of the water utilization efficiency. Pearl River Delta and Northern Guangdong made progress in productivity due to the advantages of scale expansion benefit. Eastern Guangdong achieved improvement in all-over parameters and made the largest growth in water utilization efficiency, while Western Guangdong basically profited from organizational management during the study period; the prediction analysis revealed a continuous increase in the water utilization efficiency in Guangdong Province during 2019–2025 with an average annual growth rate of about 0.6%, benefiting mainly from the technological innovation and secondly from management renewal, while scale expansion benefit tended to decline. Furthermore, spatial heterogeneity exhibited a decreasing tendency in the future owing to the rapid water utilization efficiency increase in the Western and Eastern Guangdong. It is suggested that the technological innovation and the integrated management capability in water use should be paid more attention to enhance the water utilization efficiency in Guangdong Province. Achieving a balance between economic growth and water resource protection, and promoting the sustainable development of the nature-economy-society compound system is of the utmost priority in Guangdong.