Avalanche Simulation Research Articles

Soil erosion in an avalanche release site (Valle d'Aosta: Italy): towards a winter factor for RUSLE in the Alps

Abstract. Soil erosion in Alpine areas is mainly related to extreme topographic and weather conditions. Although different methods of assessing soil erosion exist, the knowledge of erosive forces of the snow cover needs more investigation in order to allow soil erosion modeling in areas where the snow lays on the ground for several months. This study aims to assess whether the RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) empirical prediction model, which gives an estimation of water erosion in t ha yr−1 obtained from a combination of five factors (rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, topography, soil cover, protection practices) can be applied to mountain areas by introducing a winter factor (W), which should account for the soil erosion occurring in winter time by the snow cover. The W factor is calculated from the ratio of Ceasium-137 (137Cs) to RUSLE erosion rates. Ceasium-137 is another possible way of assessing soil erosion rates in the field. In contrast to RUSLE, it not only provides water-induced erosion but integrates all erosion agents involved. Thus, we hypothesize that in mountain areas the difference between the two approaches is related to the soil erosion by snow. In this study we compared 137Cs-based measurement of soil redistribution and soil loss estimated with RUSLE in a mountain slope affected by avalanches, in order to assess the relative importance of winter erosion processes such as snow gliding and full-depth avalanches. Three subareas were considered: DS, avalanche defense structures, RA, release area, and TA, track area, characterized by different prevalent winter processes. The RUSLE estimates and the 137Cs redistribution gave significantly different results. The resulting ranges of W evidenced relevant differences in the role of winter erosion in the considered subareas, and the application of an avalanche simulation model corroborated these findings. Thus, the higher rates obtained with the 137Cs method confirmed the relevant role of winter soil erosion. Despite the limited sample size (11 points), the inclusion of a W factor in RUSLE seems promising for the improvement of soil erosion estimates in Alpine environments affected by snow movements.

Avalanche situation in Turkey and back calculation of selected events

Abstract. In Turkey, an average of 24 people die in snow avalanches every year, mainly in the eastern part of Anatolia and in the eastern Black Sea region, where high-mountain ranges are close to the sea. The proportion of people killed in buildings is very high (87%), especially in comparison to other European countries and North America. In this paper we discuss avalanche occurrence, the climatic situation and historical avalanche events in Turkey; in addition, we identify bottlenecks and suggest solutions to tackle avalanche problems. Furthermore, we have applied the numerical avalanche simulation software RAMMS (rapid mass movements simulation) combined with a (digital elevation model) DEM-based potential release zone identification algorithm to analyze the catastrophic avalanche events in the villages of Üzengili (Bayburt province) in 1993 and Yaylaönü (Trabzon province) in 1981. The results demonstrate the value of such an approach for regions with poor avalanche databases, enabling the calculation of different scenarios and the estimation of run-out distances, impact pressure and flow height.

Evaluation of probabilistic snow avalanche simulation ensembles with Doppler radar observations

In recent years snow avalanche simulation software, which is based on depth-averaged models operating in three-dimensional terrain, has gained importance. Simulations are used to plan protection measures. The software computes the spatio-temporal evolution of flow depth and velocity and is optimized to determine runout distances of avalanches. However, considering the complex output of these computer models no sophisticated evaluation procedure exists to compare the velocity output with experimental data. In this study we present a new method to objectively evaluate the velocity results of the simulation software SamosAT with Doppler radar measurements from two European snow avalanche test sites. A coordinate transformation allows comparing the maximum simulated velocities with measured data. A probabilistic simulation approach is applied, performing and evaluating a large number of simulation runs. The simulation results are evaluated in two ways. Firstly, an average evaluation is used to obtain a discrepancy estimate, representing the deviance between simulations and measurements and to explore the range of possible velocity results accounting for different uncertainties in the input parameters. Secondly, an optimized evaluation determines the magnitude of possible accordance between simulation and measurement. It reveals that for the employed simulation approach release depth and certain friction coefficients are crucial parameters to obtain optimal correspondence of simulated and measured velocities. In the investigated cases, simulation and observation show a reasonable accordance with a tendency of velocity underestimation. The presented approach is a valuable method for the evaluation and comparison of complex model outputs.

A novel approach to evaluate and compare computational snow avalanche simulation

Abstract. An innovative approach for the analysis and interpretation of snow avalanche simulation in three dimensional terrain is presented. Snow avalanche simulation software is used as a supporting tool in hazard mapping. When performing a high number of simulation runs the user is confronted with a considerable amount of simulation results. The objective of this work is to establish an objective, model independent framework to evaluate and compare results of different simulation approaches with respect to indicators of practical relevance, providing an answer to the important questions: how far and how destructive does an avalanche move down slope. For this purpose the Automated Indicator based Model Evaluation and Comparison (AIMEC) method is introduced. It operates on a coordinate system which follows a given avalanche path. A multitude of simulation runs is performed with the snow avalanche simulation software SamosAT (Snow Avalanche MOdelling and Simulation – Advanced Technology). The variability of pressure-based run out and avalanche destructiveness along the path is investigated for multiple simulation runs, varying release volume and model parameters. With this, results of deterministic simulation software are processed and analysed by means of statistical methods. Uncertainties originating from varying input conditions, model parameters or the different model implementations are assessed. The results show that AIMEC contributes to the interpretation of avalanche simulations with a broad applicability in model evaluation, comparison as well as examination of scenario variations.

Topographic curvature effects in applied avalanche modeling

Abstract This paper describes the implementation of topographic curvature effects within the RApid Mass MovementS (RAMMS) snow avalanche simulation toolbox. RAMMS is based on a model similar to shallow water equations with a Coulomb friction relation and the velocity dependent Voellmy drag. It is used for snow avalanche risk assessment in Switzerland. The snow avalanche simulation relies on back calculation of observed avalanches. The calibration of the friction parameters depends on characteristics of the avalanche track. The topographic curvature terms are not yet included in the above mentioned classical model. Here, we fundamentally improve this model by mathematically and physically including the topographic curvature effects. By decomposing the velocity dependent friction into a topography dependent term that accounts for a curvature enhancement in the Coulomb friction, and a topography independent contribution similar to the classical Voellmy drag, we construct a general curvature dependent frictional resistance, and thus propose new extended model equations. With three site-specific examples, we compare the apparent frictional resistance of the new approach, which includes topographic curvature effects, to the classical one. Our simulation results demonstrate substantial effects of the curvature on the flow dynamics e.g., the dynamic pressure distribution along the slope. The comparison of resistance coefficients between the two models demonstrates that the physically based extension presents an improvement to the classical approach. Furthermore a practical example highlights its influence on the pressure outline in the run out zone of the avalanche. Snow avalanche dynamics modeling natural terrain curvature centrifugal force friction coefficients.

Sensitivity of snow avalanche simulations to digital elevation model quality and resolution

AbstractDigital elevation models (DEMs), represent the three-dimensional terrain and are the basic input for numerical snow avalanche dynamics simulations. DEMs can be acquired using topographic maps or remote-sensing technologies, such as photogrammetry or lidar. Depending on the acquisition technique, different spatial resolutions and qualities are achieved. However, there is a lack of studies that investigate the sensitivity of snow avalanche simulation algorithms to the quality and resolution of DEMs. Here, we perform calculations using the numerical avalance dynamics model RAMMS, varying the quality and spatial resolution of the underlying DEMs, while holding the simulation parameters constant. We study both channelized and open-terrain avalanche tracks with variable roughness. To quantify the variance of these simulations, we use well-documented large-scale avalanche events from Davos, Switzerland (winter 2007/08), and from our large-scale avalanche test site, Vallée de la Sionne (winter 2005/06).We find that the DEM resolution and quality is critical for modeled flow paths, run-out distances, deposits, velocities and impact pressures. Although a spatial resolution of ∼25m is sufficient for large-scale avalanche modeling, the DEM datasets must be checked carefully for anomalies and artifacts before using them for dynamics calculations.

Comparing the performance of base map scales in GIS-based avalanche simulation: a case study from Palandöken, Turkey

Snow avalanches are very complex and dynamic events that cause serious risk to human lives, infrastructure, and facilities in mountain environments. In this study, GIS-based avalanche simulations were investigated in terms of base map scale over the simulation sensitivity. Study area consisted of the avalanche region from Sultanseki Hill to Hodaklar Hill near the Palandoken skiing site in Erzurum, eastern part of Turkey. In analysis, 1:1,000 (field surveying), 1:5,000 (orthophoto) and 1:25,000 (standard topographic maps) scaled maps were used as base maps. The avalanche simulation was constructed by Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) extracted from the base maps by using GIS-based ELBA+ simulation model. When 1:1,000-scaled map results were taken as reference simulations at 1:25,000-scaled maps, the best results for the potential area affected by avalanche and the maximum run-out distance were provided. Besides, using 1:5,000-scaled maps showed close correlation with the maximum track width, velocity, flow height, and pressure.

Using tree-ring signals and numerical model to identify the snow avalanche tracks in Kastamonu, Turkey

Many parts of our planet are exposed to natural disasters such as snow avalanches, floods and earthquakes. Detailed knowledge on these natural disasters is crucial for human safety. On December 25–26, 1992, two avalanches occurred at Kayaarkasi-Kastamonu in northern Turkey. The first avalanche took place at night of 25–26 December and caused no damage. The second avalanche took place at morning of 26 December, killed four people and did damage to properties. The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of the snow avalanches on tree rings and to investigate the boundaries and velocities of the avalanches using a numerical simulation model and the tree-ring data. Increment cores from 71 trees in the avalanche-impacted area and the control site were sampled to obtain individual standard chronologies. In the analyses, trees were grouped as (1) heavily damaged by the avalanche, showing a decrease in tree-ring widths since the event, (2) trees heavily damaged by the avalanche, showing an increase in tree-ring widths a couple of years later the event and (3) trees that were not damaged by the avalanche. In this study, one of the most important results is the precise determination of the temporal and spatial patterns of the undocumented avalanche (the first avalanche) event. Avalanches were numerically simulated using dynamical avalanche simulation software ELBA+. Comparison of the simulation model with tree-ring analysis revealed valuable results about the boundaries of the zone of influence of the avalanches.

Testing the suitability of frictional behaviour for pyroclastic flow simulation by comparison with a well-constrained eruption at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador)

We use a well-monitored eruption of Tungurahua volcano to test the validity of the frictional behaviour, also called Mohr–Coulomb, which is generally used in geophysical flow modelling. We show that the frictional law is not appropriate for the simulation of pyroclastic flows at Tungurahua. With this law, the longitudinal shape of the simulated flows is a thin wedge of material progressively passing, over several hundreds of metres, from an unrealistic thickness at the front (<<1 mm) to some tens of centimetres. Simulated deposits form piles which accumulate at the foot of the volcano and are more similar to sand piles than natural pyroclastic deposits. Finally, flows simulated with a frictional rheology are not channelised by the drainage system, but affect all the flanks of the volcano. In addition, their velocity can exceed 150 m s−1, allowing pyroclastic flows to cross interfluves at bends in the valley, affecting areas that would not have been affected in reality and leaving clear downstream areas that would be covered in reality. Instead, a simple empirical law, a constant retarding stress (i.e. a yield strength), involving only one free parameter, appears to be much better adapted for modelling pyroclastic flows. A similar conclusion was drawn for the Socompa debris avalanche simulation (Kelfoun and Druitt, J Geophys Res 110:B12202, 2005).

Evaluating the benefit of avalanche protection forest with GIS-based risk analyses—A case study in Switzerland

The protection of people, buildings and infrastructure against natural hazards is one of the key functions of mountain forests. Since the protective function strongly depends on small-scale local conditions such as terrain and stand characteristics, spatially explicit evaluation methods are necessary to provide information required for an effective and cost-efficient forest management. Risk analyses are recognized as the best method for estimating the danger from various natural hazards. Currently, however, risk-based strategies are rarely addressed in the management of protection forest. We present and discuss a risk-based approach to evaluate the protective effect of mountain forests in a spatially explicit manner to demonstrate the advantages of future risk-based protection forest management. We illustrate the approach by performing a GIS-based risk analysis in the case study area ‘Bannwald of Andermatt’ (Switzerland) for a 300-year snow avalanche event. Classifying forest structures based on aerial photographs allowed developing different forest cover scenarios and modeling potential avalanche release areas within the forest. Potential avalanche release areas above the forest and the avalanche run-out distances under five different scenarios of forest cover were calculated by using a two-dimensional avalanche simulation model. We calculated the annual collective risk for each scenario and compared the change in risk to reveal the spatial distribution of the protective effect of the forest. Resulting risks differed strongly between forest cover change scenarios. An enlargement of an existing wind-disturbed area within lower parts of the slope resulted only in a slight increase of risk. In contrast, the effect of an unforested area in the upper parts of the observed forest more than doubled the risk. These results show how a risk-based approach can help to quantify and illustrate the impact of differences in forest cover on the protective effect of mountain forests. It is a promising approach to determine the economic value of protection forests and thus provide quantitative and qualitative information for cost-efficient forest maintenance planning. With regard to the achievements of research to date, the presented approach may serve as a valuable method to support decision-making in a future protection forest management.

Avalanche hazards and mitigation in Austria: a review

At all times natural hazards like torrents or avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructures in the Austrian Alps. Since 1950 more than 1,600 persons have been killed by avalanches in Austria, which is on average approximately 30 fatalities per year. In particular, the winter periods 1950/1951 and 1953/1954 stand out with more than 100 fatalities. Those events led to an increase of avalanche control programmes in the following decades. While from the 1950s to the 1970s emphasis was placed on permanent measures (technical structures, afforestations, hazard zoning ...) additional programmes such as avalanche warning and forecasting have supplemented avalanche control measures in the last decades. Current research is focused on avalanche simulation, risk management and the influence of the forest on avalanche formation. An important area of future research is to develop improved methods for avalanche forecasting and to intensify the investigation of the dynamics of avalanches.

Single-Event Burnout and Avalanche Characteristics of Power DMOSFETs

Analyses of quasi-stationary avalanche simulations on radiation-hardened power MOSFETs suggest that the single-event burnout (SEB) failure is determined by the device's avalanche characteristics and confirm SEB failure mechanism is due to the turn-on of parasitic bipolar transistor. The heavy ion beam is only acting as a trigger. Simulation results on various 600 V and 250 V radiation-hardened power MOSFETs from International Rectifier are compared to an extensive set of single event effect test results and prove quasi-stationary avalanche simulation is capable of evaluating and predicting SEB susceptibility

Multi-basin avalanche simulation: A model

A process oriented avalanche prediction model for wide-area use was developed using five winters' data from Berthoud Pass, Colorado. The model was successfully tested on independent data from the Colorado Front Range and San Juan mountains. This research model is driven by temperature, precipitation, wind, and radiation; it simulates snow transport and deposition in starting zones and the development of a layered snow cover in forest sheltered clearings. Probabilities of avalanche occurrence are estimated according to recent loading and simulated regional snowpack stratigraphy.