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Abstract
A process oriented avalanche prediction model for wide-area use was developed using five winters' data from Berthoud Pass, Colorado. The model was successfully tested on independent data from the Colorado Front Range and San Juan mountains. This research model is driven by temperature, precipitation, wind, and radiation; it simulates snow transport and deposition in starting zones and the development of a layered snow cover in forest sheltered clearings. Probabilities of avalanche occurrence are estimated according to recent loading and simulated regional snowpack stratigraphy.
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