Autoregressive Distributed Lag Technique Research Articles

Macroeconomic variables and initial public offerings in Sri Lanka: a principal component analysis approach

PurposeThis study aims to comprehensively examine the relationship between initial public offering (IPO) activities and macroeconomic factors in Sri Lanka.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses principal component analysis (PCA) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques to examine the relationship between IPO activities and macroeconomic factors. Ten macroeconomic variables are transformed into principal components (factors) using PCA. Then, ARDL is applied to investigate the long- and short-term relationships between IPO activities and the transformed macroeconomic factors.FindingsThe empirical investigation identifies three principal factors from the ten macroeconomic variables, of which two factors have a significant long-run association with IPO activities: “return on investment (RTOI)” and “economic and market development (ECMD).” In the short run, “trade openness and banking sector development (TOBD)” and RTOI are significantly associated with IPO activities.Research limitations/implicationsThe study was based on 30 years of observations, which passed all diagnostic tests but may be insufficient for generalizing the findings. Future studies could use high-frequency data (monthly or quarterly) to increase the number of observations and repeat the method and analysis. Also, while the symmetrical ARDL method was used in this study, an asymmetrical ARDL method may provide more insightful results and interpretations.Practical implicationsThe study highlights the importance of considering both long- and short-term associations when analyzing the impact of macroeconomic variables on IPO activities.Originality/valueThis study is the first to comprehensively examine the relationship between IPO activities and macroeconomic variables using PCA and the ARDL technique. The study provides insight into the macroeconomic factors that influence IPO activities in Sri Lanka and highlights the importance of considering long- and short-term associations.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Sectoral Output in Nigeria

The paper examined the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the ten largest subsectors of the Nigerian economy using quarterly data from Q1 1981 to Q4 2023. The rationale behind selecting the subsectors is that these sectors constitute about 89 percent of the entire productive activities in the economy. To achieve the objectives, the paper created an index for macroeconomic uncertainty using exchange rate uncertainty, interest rate uncertainty, inflation uncertainty, and real gross domestic product (GDP) uncertainty to create this index. Furthermore, the paper explored the impacts of macroeconomic uncertainty and these individual economic uncertainty indexes on sector output. The study employed the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (novel dynamic ARDL) technique to estimate the results and used the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) techniques as robustness on the main findings. The findings demonstrated that during periods of recession, macroeconomic uncertainty tends to heighten or reach its peak in Nigeria. Furthermore, the paper showed that the sectors react homogenously to macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, the impulse response results from the novel dynamic ARDL estimation show that macroeconomic uncertainty can predict robust negative movements in sector output for Nigeria. Indeed, these findings are insightful as they show the importance of macroeconomic uncertainties as key drivers of sector output in Nigeria. The paper argues that the policy authorities should improve their efforts to reduce macroeconomic uncertainty and foster a stable real sector/sectoral output to enhance the macroeconomic environment for Nigeria to aim for higher levels of growth.

The role of government integrity in the impact of environmental taxes on comparative advantage in environmental goods and climate change in emerging markets

The goal of this study is to examine how environmental taxes influence the comparative advantage in environmental products and carbon emissions within emerging economies. To gain a better understanding, we examine whether this impact changes depending on the level of government integrity. This study utilizes panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques and a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic panel model to ensure accuracy. The results indicate that increased environmental taxes mitigate the comparative advantage in environmental goods for emerging markets. However, for countries with high levels of government integrity, higher environmental taxes enhance their competitive edge in environmental goods. Additionally, our findings show that although a rise in environmental taxes is associated with higher carbon emissions, raising such taxes results in a reduction in carbon emissions for emerging economies with solid government integrity. These findings suggest that robust political institutions are crucial in promoting the comparative advantage of emerging markets in environmental goods and mitigating climate change. In the absence of substantial confidence in political or governmental institutions, the efficient implementation of climate taxes poses considerable challenges. Furthermore, we observe that an increase in the comparative advantage of environmental goods results in a decrease in carbon emissions.

Impact of energy consumption on life expectancy in lower-middle-income West African countries

Life expectancy is a key determinant of a nation’s health and well-being. However, West African countries face several challenges in improving life expectancy, such as inadequate healthcare infrastructure, corruption, poor sanitation, and environmental quality due to environmental degradation. In addition, energy accessibility is an important determinant of health outcomes and environmental quality. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals 7, 12, 13, 14, and 15 are directly linked with energy access; achieving these goals will lead to an improvement in energy access. Therefore, in this study, using data obtained from the World Bank and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, we investigated the impact of energy consumption and corruption on life expectancy in lower-middle-income West African countries from 1990 to 2021. The results of the cross-sectional auto-regressive distributed lag technique showed that renewable energy has a positive and significant impact on life expectancy in lower-middle-income West African countries in both the short and long run. However, non-renewable energy was found to have a significant and negative impact on life expectancy in the long run and a negative but non-significant impact in the short run. Corruption had a debilitating effect on life expectancy in both the short and long run. We recommend that policymakers should make a conscious and deliberate push toward transitioning to renewable energy through public–private partnerships to provide affordable and clean energy while tackling corruption.

Unveiling the impact of remittances on productive efficiencies: investigating productivity growth of prominent remittance-receiving developing nations

PurposeThe present study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature about the significance of international migrants' remittance to empirically analyse the effect of remittance on the productivity growth of developing countries using a panel dataset from 1991 to 2021.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilised the data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) to measure nationwide production efficiencies. It first performed a unit root test, cointegration test and pool mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG-ARDL) technique. To assess the robustness of the findings, the study also uses dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS) estimators.FindingsThe results demonstrated that remittances are a significant source of funding that promotes innovation [i.e. technological progress (TEC)] and hastens the country's total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, the study needed to have established the effect of inward remittances on the nation's technical efficiency (EFF).Research limitations/implicationsAs remittances encourage innovation and TFP growth (TFPG), the concerned governments must create favourable and enabling economic environments to increase remittance inflows, which will have far-reaching growth repercussions.Originality/valueThe present study emphasises the connection between remittances and productivity growth, the disintegration of TFP, advanced econometric techniques and contribution to research policy. Despite prior literature exploring the effect of remittances on economic growth, a dearth of literature exists on how remittances affect a country's productivity. The output-based MPI methodology used in this study offered a nuanced understanding of how remittances affect many facets of productivity growth in developing nations.

Transition toward a sustainable future: Exploring the role of green investment, environmental policy, and financial development in the context of load capacity factor in G‐7 countries

AbstractEnvironmental sustainability holds evident significance since it is intricately connected with attaining sustainable development. However, the pre‐requisite of ecological sustainability is the higher ratio of biodiversity to ecological footprint, called the Load Capacity Factor (LCF). Literature is quite scant on the drivers of LCF and the study in hand is the attempt to find the viable policy instruments of this important sustainability indicator. For this purpose, the study has explored the role of green investment (GI), environmental policy (EP), financial development (FD), and natural resources rent (NRR) in the context of the load capacity curve (LCC) hypothesis for G‐7 countries from 1990 to 2019. Considering the co‐dependence among economies, the study has employed a Cross‐sectional Dependence Autoregressive Distributive Lag (CS‐ARDL) technique to investigate the impact of each variable along with other econometric techniques. The observed outcomes suggest that green investment and environmental policy stringency both contribute to improving environmental quality by increasing LCF. Whereas financial development and natural resources rent significantly, reduce the LCF and enhance environmental degradation. Additionally, the findings also validate the LCC hypothesis in the G‐7 context. The study advocates the need for green investment and policy stringency to achieve ecological sustainability and adequate consideration to transform financial development toward sustainability. Finally, the study has presented in‐depth ecological solutions so that G‐7 economies can take possible action to acquire the targets set in COP26.

The impact of factors on environmental pollution in asean countries: The role of institutional quality

The impact of institutional quality on environmental pollution in ASEAN countries is analyzed in this study. The researcher collected 250 observations from the World Bank dataset using data from 1996 to 2020. The author applied principal component analysis (PCA) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques to estimate panel data. The evidence of this study suggests that institutional quality has a negative impact on environmental pollution in the short run and a positive impact in the long run. Other macro factors, such as economic growth, trade openness, financial development, FDI, and energy consumption, have varying degrees of impact on environmental pollution. To the best of the authors' knowledge, there is currently no research examining the impact of institutional quality on environmental pollution in ASEAN countries, with the institutional quality variable created from six indicators based on the WGI database by using the PCA technique.

The Role of Government Expenditure in Shaping ASEAN Economic Growth: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

This study uses a quantitative technique to investigate the relationship between government spending and economic progress in ASEAN nations. The paper examines yearly secondary data from eleven ASEAN states between 2000 and 2022 using panel data analysis. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is employed in the study to identify long-term cointegrating correlations between variables. The findings demonstrate that government expenditure has a significant and positive long-term impact on economic growth, stressing the need of investing in ASEAN-wide economic and social development projects. However, the short-term effects of government spending appear to be minimal, owing to delays in collecting benefits from these expenditures.

Attracting Private Investment to Renewable Energy Projects in India

Attracting private investments to renewable energy projects is a topic of significant debate within academic circles. This study investigates the relationship between green fiscal policy and green monetary policy concerning investments in renewable energy in India, spanning from 1990 to 2021, employing the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) technique. The findings reveal that green taxes can positively or negatively impact investments in renewable energy sources. Furthermore, green monetary policy, mainly through the provision of green loans, accelerates investment inflows into renewable energy sources in the short and long terms. Challenges hindering private investment in India's renewable energy sector include compounded risk and inflation. Nonetheless, financial development and literacy rates are crucial in expanding investment in renewable energy sources. Based on these findings, practical policy recommendations for India entail enhancing sustainable literacy through green education, promoting social inclusivity, and establishing effective monetary and fiscal policies.

PROBLEMS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION AMONG FISH FARMERS AND WAY FORWARD IN RIVERS STATE, NIGERIA

This study examines the impact of private investment on economic performance in Nigeria using time series data from 1980 -2018. Multiple regression and co-integration methods are employed to analyze the data. The objectives of this study is to, among other things, examine the casual relationship between private investment and economic growth in Nigeria and to investigate the impact of private domestic investment on economic performance in Nigeria. Being a time series data, the first step is to test for the stationarity of the data by using Phillips Perron-Fuller unit root test. Ordinary least square (OLS) and Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the models. The results of the unit root test show that some variables; Labour Force Participation rate (LPR), Private Domestic This study assessed problems of vertical integration among fish farmers in Rivers State, Nigeria. The paper looked at distribution of respondents’ socio-economic characteristics and problems of vertical integration among fish farmers in the study area. Data for the study was collected from 37 vertically integrated fish farmers that exist in the State. To analyze the data, collected descriptive statistics and Likert-type rating scale was used. The study revealed that the vertically integrated fish farmers were mostly within the range of 41-45 years, married having household size of 6-10 persons. The study revealed that the vertically integrated fish farmers were experienced, learned, and majored only as fish culture farmers. However, farmers complained of large capital required for starting, irregular electricity, sinking of local feed produced, poor drying of fish, and stressful activities of feed production, fingerling hatching and processing of fish. It was suggested that fish culture farmers should be provided with credit at low interest rate, up-to date knowledge in fish culture and extension services to enhance productivity.

Investigating the relationships among green technologies, financial development and ecological footprint levels in Algeria: Evidence from a novel Fourier ARDL approach

Many recent initiatives have been introduced to enhance ecological sustainability by minimizing countries' ecological footprints (EF). The focus has been on achieving environmental footprint neutrality through the application of green technologies (GT) and financial development (FD) in facilitating this transition. To determine the contribution of these variables to sustainability, this study investigated the effects of GT and FD on EF in Algeria from Q1/1990 to Q4/2021. Additionally, this research examines the moderating role of GT with FD on EF. To achieve these objectives, advanced Fourier autoregressive distributed lag techniques and the Fourier causality test were employed. The findings reveal that FD increases EF, leading to ecological degradation. Conversely, GT reduces EF in the long run, demonstrating its potential to foster ecological sustainability. Notably, the study highlights the significant moderating role of GT in the FD-EF relationship. This underscores the critical role of environmental technologies in mitigating the adverse effects of FD by facilitating creative technologies and lowering EF. Therefore, the study recommends that Algeria integrates GT with FD to achieve long-term reduction of environmental harm. In conclusion, Algeria needs to hasten GT in combination with stronger FD to mitigate ecological impacts without compromising sustainable economic growth.

An assessment of asymmetric impact of financial stability and agricultural subsidies on agricultural production in Pakistan

PurposeThere will probably be nine billion people on the earth by 2050, meaning food consumption will rise dramatically. Pakistan, the fifth most populous nation in the world, is rapidly expanding its population, making it difficult for the nation to sustain its food supply. Unfortunately, the country's focus on ensuring food security has not kept up with the demographic shifts in its population. However, innovative solutions are sorely needed in the face of several worldwide problems, especially in the crucial agriculture sector. This underscores the need to integrate sustainable financial practices. Considering these circumstances, this research thoroughly examines the intricate relationship inside Pakistan between financial stability (FS), agricultural subsidies, and productivity. Acknowledging the underlying intricacies and asymmetries at work, this study aims to analyze the complex relationships influencing the nation's agricultural production.Design/methodology/approachThe research tries to shed light on the subtle processes at the intersection of financial stability, agricultural subsidies, and agricultural productivity through a comprehensive investigation of these multiple challenges. A non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) technique is used, using a dataset from 1980 to 2022.FindingsThe results show that FS has a mixed impact on agricultural productivity, both positive and negative. Increasing FS_POS has a beneficial influence on agricultural output, linked to a notable 1.404% increase in output. On the other hand, increasing FS_NEG causes a significant 11.441% decrease in agricultural output, demonstrating its negative impact on output. Subsidies for agriculture also have asymmetric impacts; SUB_POS and SUB_NEG influence variations in agricultural productivity. A substantial 2.414% rise in agricultural output is shown by SUB_POS, demonstrating its noteworthy beneficial influence. Conversely, SUB_NEG adds a relatively small increase of 1.659% in agricultural output. However, the different amounts of each person's contribution show how subtle their effects are.Research limitations/implicationsThe current study is limited to the relationship between financial stability, agricultural subsidies, and agricultural productivity, considering the inherent complexity and asymmetries at work in Pakistan only. Further studies are required in Asian markets to have a bigger picture of the agricultural sector.Originality/valueConsidering these critical empirical findings, the report recommends strategic strategies to promote long-term agricultural growth in Pakistan. These include providing integrated financial services customized to farmers' needs, such as credit, insurance, and savings alternatives. Transparency and efficiency in procedural frameworks and the formation of efficient public-private partnerships should be prioritized. Furthermore, improving agricultural subsidy schemes emerges as a crucial priority. Targeting marginalized farmers more effectively and optimizing distribution through transparent, digitally driven systems can significantly improve program performance.

Quantifying the Impact of Natural Resources on Sustainable Growth in Developing Economies: Evidence from Panel Nonlinear ARDL Technique

The main purpose of current research is to analyze the impact of natural resource exploration on sustainable growth in developing economies. Annual panel data of 57 developing countries from 2000 to 2021 has been used for research analysis. First, this study uses a simple Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation technique to examine the long-run and short-run link among the variables. The results depict that in the long run natural resource exploration has a significant negative impact on sustainable growth. This finding supports the presence of the resource curse hypothesis. Besides this, the present study decomposes the policy variable (mining contribution index) into its two shocks i.e. positive shock and negative shock by applying a panel non-linear ARDL approach. The long-run outcomes depict that both the coefficients of partial positive and partial negative sums of natural resource rents are negative and significant. Furthermore, the research outcomes explain that financial openness and international trade have a substantial and positive impact on sustainable progress. The policy implications for current research are to avoid bad rent-seeking behaviors and to escape from non-productive activities to achieve sustainable development. Furthermore, there is a dire need to adopt and support environmentally friendly policies.

Assessing the influence of research and development, environmental policies, and green technology on ecological footprint for achieving environmental sustainability

Recently, there has been rising global concern regarding the importance of achieving environmental sustainability. Consequently, researchers and policymakers have focused on identifying and evaluating the various elements that contribute to an individual's ecological footprint and environmental consequences. Therefore, this study provides an in-depth understanding of the roles of green technology, research and development (R&D), and environmental policies that help attain environmental sustainability in Ghana. The present study utilized both the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) techniques to evaluate the long and short-run relationships between explanatory variables from 1990 to 2022. The study compares the results of NARDL and ARDL techniques. The findings reveal that the NARDL (0.999) analysis had a greater impact on the ecological footprint in Ghana than the ARDL (0.996) analysis. Under the ARDL technique, green technology has a negative impact on ECF in both the short and long run, and R&D also decreases ecological footprint (ECF) in the long run. Environmental policies had a negative impact on ECF in both the short and long run. Based on the NARDL approach, an adverse change in GT had a negative impact (0.004) on the ECF in both the short and long run. In contrast, a negative change in R&D has a negative impact (0.007) on the ECF in the short run, and a positive change in R&D negatively affects the ecological footprint in the long run. Notably, a positive change in environmental policies had a significant negative impact (0.040) on the ECF in the short and long run. This study suggests that policymakers should encourage and support the adoption and application of green technology and the development of robust environmental policies, as these measures can significantly contribute to decreasing the ecological footprint and fostering environmental sustainability.

TRADE POLICY, EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

Two macroeconomic policies that have impacted on Nigerias manufacturing industry are trade and exchange rate policies. From 1981 to 2022, this study looked at the connection between Nigerias real industrial production, exchange rate, and trade policy. Real manufacturing GDP served as a stand-in for real manufacturing output, and explanatory variables similar to the exchange rate, per capita income, monetary policy rate, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, import to export ratio, and dummy variables for structural adjustment were employed. The model was analyzed in the research by means of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The outcomes showed that while exports as a ratio of gross domestic product (EXGDP). Significantly boosted real manufacturing output (RMO) both in the near and distant future times. Imports as a ratio of gross domestic product (IMGDP) had a negative impact on RMO. Trade liberalization by DSAP had a significant benefit on actual manufacturing production over the long run, while it had a minimally positive impact on RMO during the near term. The rate of exchange has a short-term favorable influence on RMO but a long-term negative one. To increase manufacturing output, the federal government of Nigeria should align its trade policy with the export promotion industrialization plan. KEYWORDS: Trade Policy, Exchange Rate Dynamics, Manufacturing Output, ARDL, Nigeria.

Improving household well‐being through entrepreneurship and inclusive finance in the context of the Next‐11 countries

AbstractScholarship brainstorming on household welfare enablers abounds in academic literature. Nonetheless, the perspective of entrepreneurship, particularly for the Next‐11 countries, is underreported. Likewise, prior literature failed to investigate the influence of categorical (gender‐specific) entrepreneurship on household welfare. Thus, this investigation covers this lacuna by examining the predictive effects of aggregate, male and female entrepreneurship and financial inclusiveness on household welfare. With panel series spanning 2004–2021, both the Westerlund and Banerjee & Carrion‐i‐Silvestre cointegration procedures confirmed long‐term convergence among the series. The estimates of the augmented mean group (AMG) and the cross‐sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CSARDL) techniques revealed that entrepreneurship enhances household well‐being. This outcome validates the self‐determination theory since entrepreneurial engagements enhance household welfare. By extension, policies targeting entrepreneurship empowerment are critical for economic prosperity in these countries. In terms of gender variations, it is established that female entrepreneurship, much more than male, enhances household well‐being significantly. Furthermore, although automated teller machine availability promotes subjective well‐being, the number of commercial bank branches enhances only objective well‐being. Meanwhile, commercial bank loans failed to enhance both aspects of welfare at all times. Hence, we have provided relevant policy options that would ensure the maximization of households’ well‐being in these countries and other emerging economies.

Analysis of Trade Effects of Parallel Exchange Rate in Nigeria

Aims: The study examines the potency of parallel exchange rates in the movement of international trade in Nigeria. The monetary authorities have embarked on various exchange rate regimes basically because the supply of foreign exchange is not enough to meet the demand. Consequently, a parallel market for exchange rates exists and has become a strong and functional market in the country. But the reason for managing foreign exchange and by extension, introducing various exchange rate regimes was to correct the balance of trade disequilibrium. Yet the balance of trade deteriorates, particularly that of non-oil trade balance. Does the parallel exchange rate contribute to this or does it ameliorate it? Study Design: Descriptive, Correlation, and Regression analysis on time series data. Place and Duration of Study: Sample: Monthly data from January 2007 to December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12) were extracted from the online data repository of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Methodology: The autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on monthly data between January 2007 and December 2022 (2007:1-2022:12). Results: The result indicates that the short-run dynamics of total exports (total imports) are negatively (positively) and significantly affected by parallel exchange rate. Generally, depreciation of the parallel exchange rate is detrimental to export particularly non-oil exports. Further, depreciation of parallel exchange rate encourages imports and highly persistent in influencing non-oil imports. The J-curve phenomenon breaks down for total balance of trade. However, the J-curve phenomenon cannot be confirmed in the case of oil trade balance because there is no information about the long run effect of parallel exchange rate on oil export due to the non-integration of the model. In the case of non-oil trade balance, the short-run outcome confirms the existence of the J-curve prediction. Conclusion: Following these results, it is recommended among others that government should activate a single market (window) for foreign exchange. Also, the authorities should ensure that importation of non-oil products such as exotic cars by government officials be stemmed.

Understanding Global Commodity Price Shocks on Exchange Rates and Inflation in Emerging Economies: ARDL Perspective

Aims: To analyze the changing relationship between commodity prices (cocoa, diesel, gold, oil, petrol) and macroeconomic factors (exchange rate and inflation) in Ghana and differentiate between long-term and short-term effects.
 Study Design: Quantitative Design with Time series analysis using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique.
 Methodology: The study utilized cointegration and Error Correction Model in econometric estimation. Time series data for commodity prices and macroeconomic factors were collected for the period 2003M01 to 2023M10. The ARDL technique was applied to differentiate between long-term and short-term effects of inflation and exchange rates.
 Results: The short-run and long-run results indicate a positive relationship between commodity prices and inflation and exchange rates. A 1% increase in diesel prices is associated with a 0.23% appreciation in Ghana's currency in the short run (p=0.019) and a 1.76% rise in inflation in the long run (p=0.012). Past inflation has a dominant influence on current inflation, with a 1 percentage point increase in the previous year's inflation leading to a 0.45 percentage point increase in the current inflation rate.
 Conclusion: Policymakers should prioritize stabilizing diesel prices, invest in storage facilities, promote alternative energy sources, strengthen domestic production and distribution of essential commodities, and adopt targeted monetary and fiscal policies to anchor inflationary expectations and address inflation inertia in Ghana.

Impact of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

The effect of the exchange rate on GDP growth in Nigeria from 1985–2021, according to this analysis. The World Bank's World Development Indicator (WDI) and the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) Statistical Bulletin were used as secondary sources of data. The real exchange rate served as a stand-in for the actual exchange rate, while real gross domestic product was used to gauge economic growth. We used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to find out how integrated the series was. The bound test was used to test for cointegration. The bound test found that the exchange rate and economic growth are related in the long term. This research used the autoregressive distributed lag technique to estimate the short- and long-term effects of the exchange rate on GDP growth. The ARDL analysis shows that there is a weak negative correlation between the exchange rate and GDP growth. According to the research, trade openness has a small but favorable effect on GDP growth. Furthermore, the research indicated that foreign exchange reserves significantly and positively impacted economic development. There was also a negative and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and GDP growth. The analysis found that the exchange rate did not have a significant role in determining Nigeria's economic development. Given the importance of a stable and predictable exchange rate in boosting economic development, the research suggests that monetary authorities implement a policy primarily aimed at stabilizing exchange rates.

Nigeria’s Volatile Oil Revenue: Is There a Cause for Concern?

This study, unlike previous studies, investigates the impact of volatile oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986-2020. The study adopted the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag technique (ARDL) to analyze the data. The results show that in the short-run, oil revenue volatility significantly depressed economic growth. In the long-run, however, oil revenue volatility improves economic growth in the country. The study therefore recommends that governments and policymakers in Nigeria should vigorously pursue policies that will reduce the reliance on oil revenue through greater economic diversification; otherwise economic growth may worsen in the short-run.