TRADE POLICY, EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS AND MANUFACTURING SECTOR OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Two macroeconomic policies that have impacted on Nigerias manufacturing industry are trade and exchange rate policies. From 1981 to 2022, this study looked at the connection between Nigerias real industrial production, exchange rate, and trade policy. Real manufacturing GDP served as a stand-in for real manufacturing output, and explanatory variables similar to the exchange rate, per capita income, monetary policy rate, manufacturing capacity utilization rate, import to export ratio, and dummy variables for structural adjustment were employed. The model was analyzed in the research by means of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The outcomes showed that while exports as a ratio of gross domestic product (EXGDP). Significantly boosted real manufacturing output (RMO) both in the near and distant future times. Imports as a ratio of gross domestic product (IMGDP) had a negative impact on RMO. Trade liberalization by DSAP had a significant benefit on actual manufacturing production over the long run, while it had a minimally positive impact on RMO during the near term. The rate of exchange has a short-term favorable influence on RMO but a long-term negative one. To increase manufacturing output, the federal government of Nigeria should align its trade policy with the export promotion industrialization plan. KEYWORDS: Trade Policy, Exchange Rate Dynamics, Manufacturing Output, ARDL, Nigeria.