Decision Maker's Attitude Research Articles

Minimum adjustment cost consensus model with bounded risk preference attitudes: A perspective based on fractional stochastic dominance

Linguistic multi-attribute group decision making with linguistic distribution assessment (LMAGDM-LDA) problems have been widely investigated. However, in the existing studies, the risk attitudes of decision maker are seldom considered. Inspired by this, in this paper, we employ the idea of fractional stochastic dominance to develop a consensus reaching framework for LMAGDM-LDA with bounded risk preference attitudes. Then, we design an interactive learning algorithm for obtaining the bounded risk preference threshold. Next, we analyze the deception behaviors and average behaviors of experts, and develop the minimum adjustment cost consensus model with bounded risk preference attitude (MACC-BRP). And we justify the connection between the MACC-BRP and the minimum adjustment cost consensus model with other risk attitudes. Furthermore, we provide a distance-based method to obtain the rankings of alternatives. Furthermore, a numerical analysis is provided to show the computation process of the proposed method, and a comparison analysis and a simulation analysis are further conducted to show the advantages and features of the proposal. The simulation results show the effects of the risk preference threshold, the intrinsic individual weight and the average threshold. The comparison results show that the proposed minimum adjustment cost consensus models have clear advantages.

Pre-disaster allocation and post-disaster dispatch strategies of power emergency resources for resilience enhancement of distribution networks

With the frequent occurrence of large-scale power outages caused by extreme disasters, coordinated dispatch of power emergency resources (PERs) and repair crews (RCs) has gradually become an essential method to enhance the resilience of distribution networks (DNs). Previous works solve this coordinated dispatch problem in a risk-neutral approach with the assumption that the supply of power repair materials (PRMs) is still fully available after the disaster. However, growing evidence indicates that certain extreme disasters may lead to limited availability of PERs in the DN, rendering risk-neutral decision making impractical. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a resilience-oriented PERs pre-disaster allocation and post-disaster dispatch strategy in a risk-averse manner. In the pre-disaster prevention process, a two-stage distributionally robust optimization (DRO) model based on mean-CVaR is developed, considering the uncertainties of both system damage and PERs demands, along with the decision maker's preference for risk. In the post-disaster restoration process, a collaborative spatio-temporal dispatching model for PERs and RCs with the goal of minimizing outage losses is established. To tackle the computational challenges associated with PRMs allocation based on DRO, robust counterpart transformation and dual theory are utilized. Case studies are conducted using a real world modified 118-bus distribution network. In comparative analysis, five control groups are established to validate the necessity to consider the limited supply of PRMs and the risk-averse attitude of decision makers in enhancing DNs resilience.

Evaluating Taiwan’s Geothermal Sites: A Bounded Rationality Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

Amid rising global demand for renewable energy, geothermal power emerges as a vital, low-carbon solution to enhance energy security and sustainability. Taiwan, strategically located on the seismically active Pacific Ring of Fire, possesses an untapped geothermal potential that is underutilized due to complex site selection challenges. This study specifically addresses the need for a more precise and psychologically attuned site selection process, aiming to optimize the development of geothermal resources in regions with complex geological settings. Utilizing the Modified Bounded Rationality Data Envelopment Analysis (MB-DEA) model, this research integrates traditional DEA with bounded rationality to factor in the risk preferences of decision-makers, offering a novel approach that enhances accuracy in evaluating geothermal sites. This study addresses the critical challenge of accurately selecting geothermal energy sites in geologically complex regions like Taiwan, where traditional methods fall short, aiming to significantly boost the efficiency and effectiveness of geothermal energy exploitation as part of Taiwan’s transition to renewable energy sources. Applied to 30 potential sites across Taiwan, our model provides a detailed assessment based on technical, economic, and psychological criteria, revealing variations in site suitability influenced by stakeholder risk attitudes. Key locations such as Datun Mountain, Maoxing, and Taolin consistently rank highly, confirming their robust potential irrespective of risk preferences. At the same time, other sites show marked sensitivity to shifts in decision-making attitudes. This work significantly advances the methodology of renewable energy site selection by demonstrating the utility of incorporating psychological factors into analytical models, which not only refines decision-making processes but also aligns with Taiwan’s strategic energy planning goals. This study also underscores the importance of accurate geographical data in complex terrains, suggesting further refinement and dynamic integration of bounded rationality for future research.

Adaptability Evaluation of Power Grid Planning Scheme for Novel Power System Considering Multiple Decision Psychology

With a substantial fraction of renewable energy integrated into the electrical grid, the new power system urgently requires grid planning scheme displaying adaptability to different energy types and their volatility. Considering the indeterminacy of renewable energy generation output and the different attitudes of decision-makers towards its risk, this paper proposes an adaptability assessment methodology for power grid planning schemes considering multiple decision psychology. First, an evaluation indicator framework is established based on the adaptive requirements of the grid planning for novel power system, and the weights of indicators are calculated based on an improved AHP-CRITIC combination weighting method. Second, improved cumulative prospect theory (ICPT) is adopted to improve to the calculation method of the distance between the evaluation program and the positive and negative ideal programs in the GRA and TOPSIS, which effectively characterize the different decision-making psychologies, and a combination evaluation model is constructed based on a cooperative game (CG), namely, an adaptability evaluation model of grid planning schemes for novel power systems based on GRA-TOPSIS integrating CG and ICPT. Finally, the proposed model serves to evaluate grid planning schemes of three regions in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. The evaluation results show that the adaptability of the schemes varies under different decision-making psychologies, and under the risk-aggressive and loss-sensitive decision-making psychologies, grid planning scheme of Region 1 with the greatest accommodation capacity of renewable energy is preferable.

A generalized interval-valued p,q Rung orthopair fuzzy Maclaurin symmetric mean and modified regret theory based sustainable supplier selection method

A novel interval valued p,q Rung orthopair fuzzy (IVPQ-ROF) multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) method for sustainable supplier selection (SSS) is proposed in this paper. This study mainly contains two research points: (1) tackling the interrelation between attributes; and (2) describing the psychological state and risk attitude of decision makers (DMs). For the first research point, we introduce the Archimedean operation rules for interval valued p,q Rung orthopair fuzzy sets (IVPQ-ROFSs), then the generalized interval valued p, q Rung orthopair fuzzy Maclaurin symmetric mean (GIVPQ-ROFMSM) operator and the generalized interval valued p, q Rung orthopair fuzzy weighted Maclaurin symmetric mean (GIVPQ-ROFWMSM) operator are defined to reflect the correlation between attributes. For the second research point, we introduce the positive ideal degree (PID) and negative ideal degree (NID) based on projection of IVPQ-ROFSs, and modified regret theory. Both of them consider the best alternative and worst alternative, so as to reflect the psychological state and risk attitude of DMs. Finally, a SSS problem is presented to manifest the effectiveness of the designed method. We also provide sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis to further demonstrate the rationality and validity of the proposed method.

Risk assessment of offshore wind power hydrogen production based on spherical fuzzy set and cumulative prospect theory - TOPSIS

With the energy revolution and the proposal of “double carbon” background, hydrogen energy with rich reserves, clean and low carbon and broad application prospects has gradually become a global hot spot. The combination of seawater hydrogen production and offshore wind power is undoubtedly the focus of research in this field. However, this new research field is not yet mature and is still in its infancy, so in order to reduce unnecessary losses, it is crucial to identify the key risks and prevent them. Secondly, the adaptability of a single model is no longer reliable for the risk assessment of this emerging field, especially the conversion from offshore wind to electric energy to hydrogen energy. Based on the above, this paper first considers the ambiguity and uncertainty of information, as well as the risk attitude of decision makers in the evaluation process, and develops a novel evaluation model. The reliability and optimization of the model are verified by sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis, and a case is introduced for practical analysis. The final results show that the key risks of hydrogen production from offshore wind power are seawater electrolysis technology, hydrogen energy storage technology and high-quality wind energy resources. The overall risk is 0.4198, which is medium risk. Decision-making managers can make targeted risk prevention to reduce losses and promote the stable operation of offshore wind power hydrogen production.

Resilience of coastal bridges under extreme wave-induced loads

Records of wave-induced damage on coastal bridges during natural hazards have been well documented over the past two decades. It is of utmost importance to decipher the loading mechanism and enhance the resilience of coastal bridges during extreme wave-inducing events. Quantification of vulnerability of these structures is an essential step in designing a resilient bridge system. Recently, considerable efforts have been made to study the force applied and the response of coastal bridge systems during extreme wave loading conditions. Although remarkable progress can be found in the quantification of load and response of coastal superstructures, very few studies assessed coastal bridge resiliency against extreme wave-induced loads. This paper adopts a simplified and practical technique to analyze and assess the resilience of coastal bridges exposed to extreme waves. Component-level and system-level fragility analyses form the basis of the resiliency analysis where the recovery functions are adopted based on the damage levels. It is shown that wave period has the highest contribution to the variation of bridge resiliency. Moreover, this study presents the uncertainty quantification in resiliency variation due to changes in wave load intensity. Results show that the bridge resiliency becomes more uncertain as the intensity of wave parameters increases. Finally, possible restoration strategies based on the desired resilience level and the attitude of decision-makers are also discussed.

The role of evidence-based practice and empathy in shared decision-making attitudes among newly graduated nurses: A cross-sectional study.

Examine the levels of variables and explore drivers associated with shared decision-making attitudes among newly graduated nurses. This was a descriptive and cross-sectional study. From August 2022 to October 2022, a cross-section of 216 newly graduated nurses from four comprehensive A-level hospitals in northern China was recruited using convenience sampling. Newly graduated nurses are generally defined as nurses with a service period of six months to one year. Data were collected using an online questionnaire support platform, including the Nursing Shared Decision-Making Attitude scale, Jefferson scale of Empathy-Health profession students and the Health Sciences Evidence-Based Practice questionnaire. All data were analysed descriptively, and correlational analysis and hierarchical regression were used to make identical connections between variables. Newly graduated nurses supported shared decision-making. Perceptions of shared decision-making were correlated with the experiences of empathy and evidence-based practice. Additionally, perspective-taking of empathy and beliefs, and the ability to search for and apply existing scientific findings of evidence-based practice had a significant impact on more positive attitudes. The survey showed that acceptance of shared decision-making was positive among newly graduated nurses. Clinical nursing managers and teachers should pay attention to cultivating the evidence-based practice and empathy of newly graduated nurses to adopt an optimistic attitude towards shared decision-making in the long term. The survey addresses attitudes of shared decision-making among newly graduatednurses and determines whether empathy and evidence-based practice has an impact on it. The main finding is that newly graduated nurses have an optimistic outlook on the implementation of shared decision-making. This survey showed that empathy and evidence-based practice competencies are associated with shared decision-making attitudes among newly graduated nurses. The results of this survey have an impact on educational institutions and hospitals in the form of recommendations. Several training programmes on empathy and evidence-based practice can help adopt the shared decision-making attitudes of newly graduated nurses. No patient or public contribution.

Evaluating the feasibility of constructing shopping centers on urban vacant land through a spatial multi-criteria decision-making model

Shopping centers are among the major economic and commercial places in cities in terms of social function, urban sustainability, environment, etc. Therefore, it is crucial to determine suitable locations for building new shopping centers. In this regard, urban vacant lands can be considered as high-potential locations to transform the urban landscape and enhance socio-economic development. The main purpose of this study is to assess the potential of urban vacant lands based on a spatial multi-criteria decision-making (SMCDM) system for building shopping centers in 22 districts of Tehran. In this study, first, 16 effective spatial criteria for locating the new shopping centers were identified using expert opinions and a literature review. The best-worst method (BWM) and the Min/Max method were used to calculate the weight and standardized values of each criterion. Then, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was used to prepare a potential map of urban vacant lands for the construction of a shopping center under different decision-making scenarios, including very optimistic, optimistic, intermediate, pessimistic, and very pessimistic. Finally, the spatial distribution of potential locations in the 22 districts of Tehran was investigated. The results showed that among the different criteria, the distance from the highway networks and distance from public transportation stations had the most weight, whereas the distance from fault and distance from stream networks had the least weight. The number of vacant lands with a very high potential for building a shopping center in Tehran based on very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic and very optimistic scenarios was obtained at 29, 95, 105, 122, and 224, respectively. An increase in the degree of optimism in the attitude of decision-makers or investors increased the number of available options in the very high potential category. Under all scenarios, all vacant lands in 10 of Tehran’s 22 districts with very high potential for building shopping centers. The results of the proposed model in this study can be useful and practical for a wide range of planners, decision-makers, and investors with different mental attitudes and risk tolerance. Close attention to these results can contribute to achieving sustainable urban development.

Attitude-Based Intuitionistic Fuzzy Graph Model for Conflict Resolution With Soft Consensus: Application to Dam Construction Projects

Construction of dam projects built on international rivers usually faces many conflicts due to different interests, values, and preferences of social entities. The graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is a powerful and flexible tool to model and analyze strategic conflicts. In this study, we introduce a GMCR model to address construction conflicts among different social entities. To process uncertain and vague information in preferences, this study allows decision-makers to use intuitionistic fuzzy information to express their preference information. First, we define necessary definitions, including the intuitionistic relative certainty of preference (IRCP), intuitionistic satisficing threshold (IST), and intuitionistic unilateral improvement (IUI). When using a graph model to represent real-world disputes, a decision-maker (DM) may have different attitudes toward other DMs. To analyze the influence of attitudes, we originally introduced the concept of soft consensus in GMCR. Then, three kinds of attitudes, i.e., positive attitude, neutral attitude, and negative attitude, are identified. Next, we propose four intuitionistic stability definitions considering the attitudes of DMs. Finally, an illustrative example regarding the Xayaburi Dam dispute that occurred in Indochina Peninsula is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model.

Rethinking risk management in times of crisis: the effect of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises in Scotland

PurposeThe Scottish economy was experiencing steady growth prior the hit of the COVID-19, with the pandemic causing the government to announce extreme lockdown measures with unprecedented impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Whilst some of the industry sectors in Scotland took a lighter hit, a large part of the organizations had to either adapt or completely disrupt their business. An essential aspect of their survival, risk management (RM) was among the areas requiring the most significant acceleration. This study compared the RM practices implemented by Scottish SMEs prior and after the outbreak as well as examined the attitudes of key decision-makers in the SMEs in relation to risk, including their perceived readiness for another crisis of similar significance.Design/methodology/approachAn online survey based on ISO 31000 RM guidelines was distributed to 232 Scottish SMEs. Based on the official government reports and existing knowledge on how SMEs around the world have handled crisis events within the past 20 years, the authors developed the hypothesis that crisis events significantly accelerate SMEs' RM implementation. Around 13 items were tested in relation to the hypothesis and responses were tested via two-tailed T-test to establish significant statistical difference.FindingsThe research provides insight into the current state of risk management practices implemented by Scottish SMEs. As expected, SMEs showed significant difference in their RM implementation prior and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Whilst this has been viewed as a positive, motivations, priorities and approaches in managing risk demonstrated by the SMEs is questionable with views to their sustainable long-term recovery. The study highlights the lack of confidence instilled within the SMEs that they can handle another crisis of similar significance and provides directions for further investigation and improvements with the aim of helping the SMEs prepare better to mitigate the consequences of future crisis events.Originality/valueIn academic sense, the study offers a tested universal framework and a detailed questionnaire for assessment of RM strategy, applicable to organisations of various type, size and geography. Several implications with regards to managerial practices have been highlighted, including the neglect of the SMEs’ own internal environments and its significance in their risk strategies, the predominantly reactive approach to RM displayed by most Scottish SMEs as well as the neglect of compliance risk leading to potential quality and customer satisfaction issues preventing SMEs from full post-crisis recovery.

Research on the decision-making of work safety investment in industrial park enterprises: evidence from behavioral experiments.

Due to the clustering of risk factors, industrial park safety accidents can easily trigger a domino effect. Work safety investment is the foundation of enterprise work safety in industrial parks. Therefore, increasing the work safety investment of enterprises in industrial parks is the key condition to prevent accidents. However, due to the typical negative externalities of industrial park work safety accidents, the decision-making process of work safety in park enterprises is influenced by other enterprises within the park, including imitation behaviors. This makes the decision-making of work safety in park enterprises very specific. In order to clarify the influencing factors and effects of work safety investment in industrial park enterprises, this study uses a behavioral experiment method and conducts decision-making experiments using the experimental platform O-Tree. The study recruits 76 participants who play the role of decision-makers in park enterprises. This study uses a lottery price experiment and a dictator experiment to measure the risk preference and altruism preference of the participants, respectively. The study introduces the real background of work safety investment in industrial park enterprises and collects data on work safety investment by the participants in different experimental scenarios. The research results show that the safety attitudes of decision-makers, altruism preference, accident experience, government work safety supervision, park management measures, and safety benefits positively influence work safety investment in park enterprises. The risk preference of decision-makers and the resource capability of work safety negatively influence work safety investment in park enterprises. Work safety investment in park enterprises is influenced by the work safety investment of other enterprises within the park.

ROLE OF MARITIME STRATEGY IN RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: A CASE STUDY OF BLACK SEA

Russia is using the Black Sea as a diplomatic tool in its foreign policy to achieve its maritime and foreign policy objectives, which are also linked with the country's strategic culture. This research investigates the significance of the Black Sea in Russia's Maritime Strategy for achieving its foreign policy objectives by using the balance of interest theory. This research employs two conceptual schemas. Firstly, with the help of maritime diplomacy, it analyses a tool to achieve foreign policy objectives in the waters. Secondly, the research uses the concept of strategic culture, which helps explore the diplomatic importance of the Black Sea in Russian foreign policy through the perspective of history and attitudes of decision-makers. This research highlights the case of the Black Sea for Russian maritime strategy, which also has a great economic significance for the region and world. It also highlights the importance of the Black Sea in the Russian maritime doctrine (2022) and links between maritime strategic culture and foreign policy objectives. It concludes that Russia is successfully pursuing its cooperative, coercive, and persuasive maritime diplomacy in the Black Sea region by providing humanitarian assistance, blocking Ukrainian access, and operating a stronghold at Sevastopol port as its naval base. In conclusion, this paper argues that strategic culture plays a vital role in employing the three diplomatic dimensions for achieving maritime objectives in the Black Sea. Bibliography Entry Fatima Sherazi, Anees. 2023. "Role of Maritime Strategy in Russian Foreign Policy: A Case Study of Black Sea." Margalla Papers 27 (2): 115-124.

Blended care: state of research and possibilities for implementation

Psychotherapy is effective in treating mental disorders; however, not all patients benefit to the same extent and treatment gains are not always maintained. Blended care (BC) has the potential to improve psychotherapeutic care by combining traditional psychotherapy with online contents. To explore the potential of BC for psychotherapeutic care and investigate its implementation possibilities. Presentation of the effectiveness of various BC modalities, attitudes of users and decision-makers, and discussion of recommendations for its implementation. Indications for the effectiveness of BC in different modalities has been shown in several studies. Both therapists and patients prefer BC over apurely online intervention and want customizable contents; however, it remains unclear for which patients BC is aparticularly suitable treatment option. Various combinations of BC have the potential to be an effective and financially viable treatment option. Successful implementation requires better education about BC and the provision of the necessary infrastructure.

Mode choice support through an integrated Delphi-fuzzy logic model

This paper proposes a fuzzy logic mode choice model combined with a Delphi method to extract inference rules, representing the evaluation processes performed by experts. The model covers railway, road, and inland waterway networks and can handle imprecise information about the level of input variables. This fuzziness arises from the attitude and perception of decision-makers and subjective uncertainties. It extends existing models beyond optimisation and includes influential and interrelated input variables. The Rotterdam-Venlo multi-modal freight corridor in the Netherlands is selected as a case study to demonstrate the model's applicability. The model can be used to assist freight forwarders in understanding possible mode choice directions under a certain scenario, support policymakers in testing the effectiveness of designed or implemented policies (e.g. emission reduction), and give insights to infrastructure managers about performance developments by tracing possible effects of planned investments on the mode choice and possible demand shifts.

Green Supplier Selection Based on Sequential Group Three-Way Decision Making

Environmental protection and sustainable development have become the consensus of all countries in the world. Enterprises must pay attention to the impact on the environment in their operations. Therefore, the selection of green suppliers has become a crucial issue for companies. Supplier selection is a dynamic and complex multi-attribute group decision-making process. The decision results have the tripartite characteristics of “accepted”, “rejected” and “pending further investigation”, and experts need to constantly negotiate in the decision-making process to achieve consensus. In view of the above characteristics, this study constructs a sequential group three-way decision making (TWDM) method to support green supplier selection. Firstly, we review the existing literature on the evaluation criteria and selection methods of green suppliers. In this process, we construct an evaluation attribution system including the following four aspects: product formation, service level, development capability, and green level. Secondly, combining with the sequential and group characteristics of decision making, we propose a multiple-attribute sequential group TWDM method based on a multi-level granularity structure. The weight of each decision maker is determined by his influence weight and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy entropy weight. The attribute weight is determined by entropy weight and subjective weight. By using the VIsekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method improved by grey relation analysis (GRA), we calculate conditional probabilities. Since the cumulative prospect theory can reflect the risk attitude of decision makers, we apply it to calculate the decision thresholds. Finally, we apply a case of Q automobile manufacturer to verify the effectiveness, applicability and feasibility of the method. The innovation of this study is to construct social networks at each granularity level and introduce an expert information exchange model to promote group consensus. The sequential group TWDM method provides a new reference and idea for the selection of green suppliers.

Moral decision-making attitude and psychological well-being: reflections from various sports branches

Background Study Aim. This study aimed to investigate the impact of moral decision-making attitudes among athletes in various sports on their psychological well-being. Material and Methods. A total of 345 active, licensed athletes (also students) participated in this study, with a mean age of 19.62 years (215 females and 130 males). The sports represented included athletics, badminton, basketball, boxing, fencing, football, wrestling, handball, hockey, judo, kickboxing, table tennis, taekwondo, wheelchair basketball, volleyball, and swimming. In addition to descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analyses were conducted within the framework of a relational model. Results. The study revealed significant relationships between different sub-dimensions of the moral decision-making attitude scale and psychological well-being. Specifically, a significant negative relationship (r = -0.162, p < 0.001) was observed between adopting cheating, a sub-dimension of the moral decision-making attitude scale, and psychological well-being. Conversely, a significant positive relationship (r = 0.158, p < 0.001) was found between protecting fair competition, another sub-dimension of the moral decision-making attitude scale, and psychological well-being. It was determined that adopting cheating had a significantly negative effect on psychological well-being (β = -0.188, p < 0.001), while protecting fair competition had a positive effect (β = 0.183, p < 0.001). Conclusions. This study suggests that athletes experience a negative impact on their psychological well-being when they engage in cheating as part of their moral decision-making attitudes. Conversely, their psychological well-being benefits from their commitment to fair competition. It can be argued that athletes' moral responsibilities contribute to their psychological resilience and well-being.

Integrated evaluation of the performance of phosphogypsum recycling technologies in China

The Chinese government is implementing policies, such as the “Guidance on comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste for the 14th Five-Year Plan period”, to stimulate phosphogypsum (PG) reduction and recycling. Thus, the comprehensive evaluation of PG recycling technologies for sustainable development is crucial. This study proposes a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method that considers the criteria of resources, environment, economy, and society and risk attitudes of decision-makers and integrates game theory (GT) and utility theory for criteria weighting and ranking to assess industrial-scale PG recycling technologies in China. The results demonstrate that GT provides more reasonable criteria weights than individual weighting methods. PG-based lightweight plaster is the top performer in the resource and environmental dimensions owing to its exceptional resource and energy efficiency. PG utilized for dry-mix mortar and organic fertilizer production exhibited the best utility performance of 0.74 and 0.73, respectively. Measures, such as subsidies and product publicity, should be implemented to promote these technologies. However, technologies with poor performance, such as PG used for the co-production of sulfuric acid and fertilizer or cement, may require optimization or substitution for the sustainable recycling of PG. The proposed MCDA method is robust and can serve as a reliable decision-making tool for other waste-recycling technologies. However, caution must be exercised when determining risk attitude using the MCDA method as it may vary with the number of technologies and affect the final rankings.

Picture fuzzy prospect theory-MAIRCA method considering optimal reference point for emergency decision-making

In the emergency decision-making process, decision-makers usually cannot give rational evaluations, and existing decision-making methods do not adequately consider the risk attitude of decision-makers either. To solve these problems, a combined method based on the prospect theory and the multi-attributive ideal-real comparative analysis (MAIRCA) method is put forward in the picture fuzzy environment. Firstly, the optimal aggregation (OA) model is proposed to obtain the ideal evaluations with the least disagreement among decision-makers. Regarding the evaluations as reference systems, the OA-based prospect theory is put forward, which could calculate the prospect matrix more reasonably. Secondly, considering the prospect matrix and alternative preference, the improved MAIRCA method is proposed, which overcomes the defects of theory and has the better ranking ability. Then, the OA-based prospect theory-MAIRCA method is further put forward to effectively complete the decision-making process with risk attitudes. Finally, an illustrative example of earthquake emergency assessment and a series of comparative experiments are presented. The analyses of results show that the proposed method has great guiding significance in the field of emergency decision-making management.

Fragility-based lot-sizing in veterinary pharmaceutical plants under demand uncertainty

We study a production lot-sizing problem inspired by a veterinary pharmaceutical plant in which demands are uncertain. First, we develop a deterministic capacitated lot-sizing model for the production of animal pesticides, performed in three machine-specific stages. Second, we propose a traditional robust optimisation formulation following the popular budget-of-uncertainty approach. Third, we derive a novel fragility-based approach that circumvents well-known issues with traditional robust optimisation approaches, such as the estimation of budgets of uncertainty, the over-conservatism of robust solutions and the sensitivity of solutions to the decision maker's risk attitude. The fragility-based approach is grounded in the idea of minimising violations, over the full uncertainty support, from a user-specified cost target. It avoids the estimation of budgets of uncertainty and produces less conservative solutions via explicit modelling of constraint violation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on instances built upon real data provided by our industrial partner, a major player in the Brazilian veterinary pharmaceutical sector. The results show that our fragility-based approach reduces average total costs across all instances and maintains greater model stability under different target estimations. It also preserves cost savings when bottlenecks are introduced in production and when inventory costs and capacities are varied.