Atmospheric Forcing Research Articles

Using a Reanalysis-Driven Land Surface Model for Initialization of a Numerical Weather Prediction System

Abstract Realistic initialization of the land surface is important to produce accurate NWP forecasts. Therefore, making use of available observations is essential when estimating the surface state. In this work, sequential land surface data assimilation of soil variables is replaced with an offline cycling method. To obtain the best possible initial state for the lower boundary of the NWP system, the land surface model is rerun between forecasts with an analyzed atmospheric forcing. We found a relative reduction of 2-m temperature root-mean-square errors and mean errors of 6% and 12%, respectively, and 4.5% and 11% for 2-m specific humidity. During a convective event, the system was able to produce useful (fractions skill score greater than the uniform forecast) forecasts [above 30 mm (12 h)−1] down to a 100-km length scale where the reference failed to do so below 200 km. The different precipitation forcing caused differences in soil moisture fields that persisted for several weeks and consequently impacted the surface fluxes of heat and moisture and the forecasts of screen level parameters. The experiments also indicate diurnal- and weather-dependent variations of the forecast errors that give valuable insight on the role of initial land surface conditions and the land–atmosphere interactions in southern Scandinavia.

The Combined Effect of Atmospheric and Solar Activity Forcings on the Hydroclimate in Southeastern Europe

The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of solar activity described by the sunspot number (SSN) on certain terrestrial variables that might impact the Southeastern European climate at different spatio-temporal scales (the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, NAOI, and the Greenland–Balkan Oscillation Index, GBOI—on a large scale; the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, PHDI—on a regional scale; the Danube discharge at the Orsova (lower basin), Q, representative of the Southeastern European climate—on a local scale). The investigations were carried out for the 20th century using the annual and seasonal averages. To find the connections between terrestrial (atmospheric and hydrological) parameters and SSN, the wavelet coherence were used both globally and in the time–frequency domain. The analyses were carried out for the time series and considered simultaneously (in the same year or season), as well as with lags from 1 to 5 years between the analyzed variables. For the annual values, the type of correlation (linear/non-linear) was also tested using elements from information theory. The results clearly revealed non-linear links between the SSN and the terrestrial variables, even for the annual average values. By applying the wavelet transform to test the solar influence on the terrestrial variables, it was shown that the connections depend on both the terrestrial variable, as well as on the considered lags. Since, in the present study, they were analyzed using wavelet coherence, but only the cases in which the coherence was significant for almost the entire analyzed time interval (1901–2000) and the terrestrial variables were in phase or antiphase with the SSN were considered. Relatively few results had a high level of significance. The analysis of seasonal averages revealed significant information, in addition to the analysis of annual averages. Thus, for the climatic indices, the GBOI and NAOI, a significant coherence (>95%) with the solar activity, associated with the 22-year (Hale) solar cycle, was found for the autumn season for lag = 0 and 1 year. The Hale solar cycle, in the case of the PHDI, was present in the annual and summer season averages, more clearly at lag = 0. For the Danube discharge at Orsova, the most significant SSN signature (~95%) was observed at periods of 33 years (Brüuckner cycle) in the autumn season for lags from 0 to 3 years. An analysis of the redundancy–synergy index was also carried out on the combination of the terrestrial variables with the solar variable in order to find the best synergistic combination for estimating the Danube discharge in the lower basin. The results differed depending on the timescale and the solar activity. For the average annual values, the most significant synergistic index was obtained for the combination of the GBOI, PHDI, and SSN, considered 3 years before Q.

Record-breaking persistence of the 2022/23 marine heatwave in the Mediterranean Sea

Since May 2022, the Mediterranean Sea has been experiencing an exceptionally long marine heatwave event. Warm anomalies, mainly occurring in the Western basin, have persisted until boreal spring 2023, making this event the longest Mediterranean marine heat wave of the last four decades. In this work, the 2022/2023 anomaly is characterized, using in-situ and satellite measurements, together with state of the art reanalysis products. The role of atmospheric forcing is also investigated; the onset and growth of sea surface temperature anomalies is found to be related to the prevalence of anticyclonic conditions in the atmosphere, which have also caused severe droughts in the Mediterranean region over the same period. Analysis of in-situ observations from the Lampedusa station and of ocean reanalyzes reveals that wind-driven vertical mixing led to the penetration of the warm anomalies below the sea surface, where they have persisted for several months, particularly in the central part of the basin. The evolution of the 2022/23 event is compared with the severe 2003 event, to put recent conditions in the context of climate change.

Opinion: Recent developments and future directions in studying the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

Abstract. This article begins with a review of important advances in the chemistry and related physics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region of the atmosphere that have occurred over the past 2 decades, since the founding of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The emphasis here is on chemistry, but we also discuss recent findings on atmospheric dynamics and forcings to the extent that these are important for understanding MLT composition and chemistry. Topics that are covered include observations, with satellite, rocket and ground-based techniques; the variability and connectedness of the MLT on various length scales and timescales; airglow emissions; the cosmic dust input and meteoric metal layers; and noctilucent/polar mesospheric ice clouds. The paper then concludes with a discussion of important unanswered questions and likely future directions for the field over the next decade.

Introducing a new floodplain scheme in ORCHIDEE (version 7885): validation and evaluation over the Pantanal wetlands

Abstract. Adapting and improving the hydrological processes in land surface models are crucial given the increase in the resolution of the climate models to correctly represent the hydrological cycle. The present paper introduces a floodplain scheme adapted to the higher-resolution river routing of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model. The scheme is based on a sub-tile parameterisation of the hydrological units – a hydrological transfer unit (HTU) concept – based on high-resolution hydrologically coherent digital elevation models, which can be used for all types of resolutions and projections. The floodplain scheme was developed and evaluated for different atmospheric forcings and resolutions (0.5∘ and 25 km) over one of the world's largest floodplains: the Pantanal, located in central South America. The floodplain scheme is validated based on the river discharge at the outflow of the Pantanal which represents the hydrological cycle over the basin, the temporal evolution of the water mass over the region assessed by the anomaly of total water storage in the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the temporal evaluation of the flooded areas compared to the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites version 2 (GIEMS-2) dataset. The hydrological cycle is satisfactorily simulated; however, the base flow may be underestimated. The temporal evolution of the flooded area is coherent with the observations, although the size of the area is underestimated in comparison to GIEMS-2. The presence of floodplains increases the soil moisture up to 50 % and decreases average temperature by 3 ∘C and by 6 ∘C during the dry season. The higher soil moisture increases the vegetation density, and, along with the presence of open-water surfaces due to the floodplains, it affects the surface energy budget by increasing the latent flux at the expense of the sensible flux. This is linked to the increase in the evapotranspiration related to the increased water availability. The effect of the floodplain scheme on the land surface conditions highlights that coupled simulations using the floodplain scheme may influence local and regional precipitation and regional circulation.

Hydrogeomorphic controls on the thermal regime of natural and restored wetlands in a glacial plain

Wetland thermal regimes are underexplored but essential attributes of habitats and function for regulatory and action agencies to evaluate the success of nationwide restoration activities. Here we investigate regional and local controls on the hydrological and thermal regimes of small natural and restored wetlands in the St. Lawrence River Valley region of northern New York State, USA. We deployed pressure and temperature sensors in seventeen wetland ponds and adjacent groundwater piezometers to obtain hourly measurements of stage and water temperature for one year. For this humid continental climate, we observed seasonal hysteresis in air and water temperature, which extended to benthic and groundwater environments. We found the temporal behavior of wetland temperatures within this region were strongly similar across sites, suggesting two seasonal controls: regional atmospheric forcing as a primary control and local groundwater offset induced by hydrogeomorphic settings as a secondary control. In particular, wetland temperatures showed the greatest spatial variability with a consistent rank order among sites during summer (standard deviation ranging 0.9–2.8℃). Three regional hydrogeomorphic settings corresponded to varying thermal behaviors in dry summer due to different degrees of groundwater sourcing. Results demonstrate that the imprints of hydrogeomorphic controls on wetland thermal regimes are best assessed in both summer and winter, due to differences in groundwater availability of wetland thermal regimes.

Observed amplification of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the Southern Ocean Time Series

The Subantarctic Zone, the circumpolar region of the Southern Ocean between the Subtropical and Subantarctic fronts, plays an important role in air-sea CO2 exchange, the storage of anthropogenic CO2, and the ventilation of the lower thermocline. Here we use a time series from moored platforms deployed between 2011 and 2021 as part of the Southern Ocean Time Series (SOTS) observatory to investigate the seasonality and interannual variability of upper ocean hydrography and seawater CO2 partial pressure (pCO2). The region is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 over the nearly 10-year record, with trends revealing that the ocean pCO2 may be increasing slightly faster than the atmosphere, suggesting that oceanic as well as anthropogenic atmospheric forcing contributes to the decadal change, which includes a decline in pH on the order of 0.003 yr−1. The observations also show an amplification of the seasonal cycle in pCO2, potentially linked to changes in mixed layer depth and biological productivity.

Results of the Study of Resonant Oscillations in the Northern Part of the Shelf of the Peter the Great Gulf, the Sea of Japan

To study the features of resonant oscillations in the water column of the Peter the Great Gulf of the Sea of Japan, in situ measurements were carried out on its shelf, combined with numerical simulation of these processes. The observational data were obtained from autonomous bottom pressure gauges in Novik Bay in the winter of 2016. In the calculations, a spectral-difference model was used, modified to account for the ice cover, and implemented on an irregular triangular grid. The atmospheric forcing used in the model had periods from 15 to 55 min. As a result, characteristic series of spatio-temporal parameters for resonant oscillations of the studied water area were determined. The locations of the peaks on the simulated resonance curves correspond to the locations of well-defined maxima of the energy spectrum according to in situ measurements, hence indicating the possibility of a significant resonant amplification of level fluctuations by wave and periodic wind effects. The novelty of this study is inclusion of the winter period, when the surface of the bay is partially covered with ice.

Characterizing water-soluble brown carbon in fine particles in four typical cities in northwestern China during wintertime: integrating optical properties with chemical processes

Abstract. Brown carbon (BrC) aerosol could impact atmospheric radiative forcing and play a crucial role in atmospheric photochemistry. In this study, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) filter samples were collected synchronously in four major cities in northwestern China during the winter season (December 2019–January 2020): Lanzhou (LZ), Xining (XN), Yinchuan (YC), and Ürümqi (UR), which are represented as energy-producing and heavy manufacturing cities in China. The primary aim of the study is to explore the optical properties, sources, and chemical processes of water-soluble BrC (WS-BrC). The average mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365) of WS-BrC at these four cities was 1.24 ± 0.19 m2 g−1 (XN), 1.19 ± 0.12 m2 g−1 (LZ), 1.07 ± 0.23 m2 g−1 (YC), and 0.78 ± 0.16 m2 g−1 (UR). The properties of WS-BrC were further investigated by an acid–base titration experiment. The results showed that the MAE365 values in all cities increased with higher pH values (2–11), while the fluorescence intensities of water extracts fluctuated with pH values, being stronger under both highly acidic and basic conditions. The sensitivity to pH variation was most pronounced in the WS-BrC samples from YC and LZ, indicating the important contribution of acid or base functional group compounds in these locations. Additionally, the study revealed significant photo-enhancement (LZ) or photo-bleaching (YC and UR) phenomena of WS-BrC in different cities. These results suggest that the sources and/or chemical processes of WS-BrC varied among the cities. The sources and chemical processes of WS-BrC were further explored by a combination of parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) on excitation–emission matrix (EEM) spectra of WS-BrC and positive matrix factorization analysis (PMF) on high-resolution mass spectra of water-soluble organic aerosol (WSOA). Six PARAFAC components were identified, including three humic-like substances (HULIS; two less oxygenated (LO) HULIS and one highly oxygenated (HO) HULIS), two protein-like or phenol-like substances (PLS), and one undefined substance. Four PMF factors were identified, including a water-soluble primary OA (WS-POA), a less oxidized oxygenated OA associated with coal combustion-induced WSOA (LO-OOA), and two highly oxidized oxygenated OAs resulting from photochemical oxidation and aqueous-phase oxidation transformations (HO-OOA1 and HO-OOA2). WS-POA was determined to be the most significant source of light absorption, accounting for 30 %–60 % based on multiple linear regression models, and it showed a significant correlation with PLS and LO-HULIS components. The loss of light absorption of WS-POA was found to occur through its conversion to LO-OOA and HO-OOAs through photochemical or aqueous reactions, with HO-OOAs being significantly correlated with the HO-HULIS component. These processes can be clearly illustrated by integrating optical properties and chemical composition using a Van Krevelen diagram and an EEM plot.

Analysis of Ionospheric Anomalies before the Tonga Volcanic Eruption on 15 January 2022

In this paper, GNSS stations’ observational data, global ionospheric maps (GIM) and the electron density of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 occultation are used to study ionospheric anomalies before the submarine volcanic eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai on 15 January 2022. (i) We detect the negative total electron content (TEC) anomalies by three GNSS stations on 5 January before the volcanic eruption after excluding the influence of solar and geomagnetic disturbances and lower atmospheric forcing. The GIMs also detect the negative anomaly in the global ionospheric TEC only near the epicenter of the eruption on 5 January, with a maximum outlier exceeding 6 TECU. (ii) From 1 to 3 January (local time), the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) peak shifts significantly towards the Antarctic from afternoon to night. The equatorial ionization anomaly double peak decreases from 4 January, and the EIA double peak disappears and merges into a single peak on 7 January. Meanwhile, the diurnal maxima of TEC at TONG station decrease by nearly 10 TECU and only one diurnal maximum occurred on 4 January (i.e., 5 January of UT), but the significant ionospheric diurnal double-maxima (DDM) are observed on other dates. (iii) We find a maximum value exceeding NmF2 at an altitude of 100~130 km above the volcanic eruption on 5 January (i.e., a sporadic E layer), with an electron density of 7.5 × 105 el/cm3.

Local Topographic Rossby Modes Observed in the Abyssal Sea of Japan

Abstract The short-period current fluctuations (topographic wave fluctuations, TWFs) on the southern rim slope of the abyssal Sea of Japan were investigated using current meter datasets from closely spaced mooring arrays. The TWFs occurred almost continuously throughout the year with short periods in a narrow band (1.5–5 days), showing a seasonal modulation in their amplitude. The TWFs were attributable to alternate passage of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies on the rim slope, which propagated eastward at a speed of 0.15–0.23 m s−1. In addition, the TWFs showed a bottom-intensified characteristic, along with the two-layer structure consisting of an almost barotropic lower layer and a marginally baroclinic upper layer. The lowest topographic Rossby mode, which is a normal mode of the topographic Rossby waves prescribed by the two ridges on the rim slope, was considered as a cause of the TWFs because of its eastward-propagating eddy train structure along the rim slope and the eigenperiod (3–5 days) near the TWF band. In addition, the local time-dependent Sverdrup balance was considered as a mechanism of the TWF generation, since the TWFs significantly correlated with the wind stress curl variations over the observation area with time lags. That is, the current fluctuations near the eigenperiod were selectively amplified via the resonance between the lowest topographic Rossby mode and the Ekman pumping variations induced by the TWF-band wind stress curl. We concluded that the observed TWFs were a manifestation of the wind-induced lowest topographic Rossby mode prescribed by the bottom topography. Significance Statement The dispersion relation teaches us that short-period (<10 days) Rossby waves have a very long wavelength (>103 km). However, as atmospheric forcing with both such period and wavelength is absent, the short-period Rossby waves excited by a local forcing generally dissipate quickly in a limited area. Nevertheless, we observed short-period (1.5–5 days) current fluctuations occurring continuously throughout the year in the abyssal (>1000 m) Sea of Japan. The deep current fluctuations were attributable to the propagation of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddy trains on the zonally extended slope. This is the wind-induced lowest topographic Rossby normal mode prescribed by the bottom topography. This study suggests that short-period current fluctuations can occur everywhere if appropriate topographic and atmospheric conditions were established.

A Complete 60‐Year Catalog of Wind Events in the German Bight (North Sea) Derived From ERA5 Reanalysis Data

AbstractThe German Bight is a shallow area in the southeastern North Sea. Atmospheric forcing, particularly wind stress, plays an essential role in the sea circulation dynamics in the area as a source of momentum and consequent driver of the variability on seasonal to interannual timescales. Westerly and SouthWesterly winds constitute the mean state of this forcing over the North Sea due to the persistent pressure gradients between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Consequently, the transport in the North Sea is primarily cyclonic. Nevertheless, the presence of land influences wind stress in the coastal regions (in terms of both intensity and direction). Moreover, distant locations respond differently to the action of the atmospheric pressure centers. Therefore, studies characterizing wind statistics in specific regions are mandatory for understanding and numerically simulating the sea circulation patterns in such areas. We present a detailed analysis of wind patterns in the German Bight, specifically in the Marine Protected Areas and Helgoland Island, using ERA5 reanalysis atmospheric data. We define and catalog area‐specific “events” according to their typical duration and magnitude and analyze their seasonality and interannual variability. We investigate the most recurrent locations and intensities of the high‐ and low‐pressure dipoles causing specific wind patterns over the German Bight during the different periods of the year. We show how, besides Westerly and SouthWesterly winds, NorthWesterly flows are a recurrent pattern in the area; winds from the East are less frequent but can be extremely persistent over the same site in the spring.

Shifts of the Recirculation Pathways in Central Fram Strait Drive Atlantic Intermediate Water Variability on Northeast Greenland Shelf

AbstractIncreased oceanic heat transport plays a key role in the accelerated mass loss of Greenland's marine‐terminating glaciers. The melt rate of major glaciers in Northeast Greenland (NEG) is controlled by ocean variability, in particular warm Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW), on the continental shelf. A high‐resolution configuration of the ocean sea‐ice model FESOM2.1 is assessed at local and regional scales, and used to investigate the drivers of AIW temperature variability on the NEG continental shelf. The seasonal to decadal variability of AIW is characterized, featuring both pronounced interannual fluctuations and a long‐term warming trend. A major source of AIW is Atlantic Water (AW) originating from the West Spitsbergen Current that recirculates in Fram Strait. AW anomalies are advected westwards and partly control the AIW temperatures on the continental shelf. Increased AIW temperatures are also connected to pronounced northern and central branches of recirculating AW in Fram Strait, and enhanced AW temperatures more regionally. The strengthening of the pathways brings more warmer AIW onto the northern part of the NEG continental shelf. There, it circulates anti‐cyclonically and results in shelf‐wide warming. Regional atmospheric forcing is connected to the changes in the AW circulation. The strengthening of the northern AW branches is likely caused by anticyclonic wind anomalies over the Barents Sea that drive an enhanced northward AW transport in Fram Strait. Thus, controlled by a combination of both upstream and regionally forced circulation conditions, the changes in local AIW temperatures may also affect the oceanic heat transport reaching the Central Arctic Ocean.

The Stepwise Reduction of Multiyear Sea Ice Area in the Arctic Ocean Since 1980

AbstractThe loss of multiyear sea ice (MYI) in the Arctic Ocean is a significant change that affects all facets of the Arctic environment. Using a Lagrangian ice age product, we examine MYI loss and quantify the annual MYI area budget from 1980 to 2021 as the balance of export, melt, and replenishment. Overall, MYI area declined at 72,500 km2/yr; however, a majority of the loss occurred during two stepwise reductions that interrupt an otherwise balanced budget and resulted in the northward contraction of the MYI pack. First, in 1989, a change in atmospheric forcing led to a +56% anomaly in MYI export through Fram Strait. The second occurred from 2006 to 2008 with anomalously high melt (+25%) and export (+23%) coupled with low replenishment (−8%). In terms of trends, melt has increased since 1989, particularly in the Beaufort Sea, export has decreased since 2008 due to reduced MYI coverage north of Fram Strait, and replenishment has increased over the full time series due to a negative feedback that promotes seasonal ice survival at higher latitudes exposed by MYI loss. However, retention of older MYI has significantly declined, transitioning the MYI pack toward younger MYI that is less resilient than previously anticipated and could soon elicit another stepwise reduction. We speculate that future MYI loss will be driven by increased melt and reduced replenishment, both of which are enhanced with continued warming and will one day render the Arctic Ocean free of MYI, a change that will coincide with a seasonally ice‐free Arctic Ocean.

Влияние короткопериодных вариаций атмосферных воздействий на крупномасштабную структуру океанографических полей

The dependence of the large-scale structure of oceanographic fields on short-term variations in atmospheric forcing (AF) at the ocean surface has been studied. Estimates of this dependence were obtained by comparing the results of two numerical experiments with the NEMO model in the ORCA1 configuration used as a computational core in the data assimilation system at the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia. The experiments similar in all other respects differed only in the discreteness of the AF data: 3–24 hours in the main experiment and 1 month in the experiment with time-averaged AF. Large-scale characteristics were compared: kinetic energy averaged over large regions, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, meridional heat transport, mixed layer depth, sea ice volume. It is shown that neglecting high-frequency AF variability can significantly distort the long-term evolution of oceanographic fields reproduced by ocean models and thereby affect the quality of model forecasts. Keywords: oceanographic fields, large-scale structure, NEMO model, atmospheric forcing, short-term variations

Influences of Lateral Boundary Forcings on the 2020 Extreme Meiyu in the Yangtze‐Huaihe River Valley

AbstractMeiyu occurs in Yangtze‐Huaihe River valley (YHRV) every summer. Its intensity, distribution, and intraseasonal variation are greatly influenced by atmospheric forcings from different directions, such as the monsoon southwesterlies from the south, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the east, the atmospheric longwave activities in the north, the southwest vortex from the west, and so on. In this study, to explore the contributions of the atmospheric forcings from different directions to 2020 extreme Meiyu, Regional Climate Model version 4.6 (RegCM4.6) is employed. A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted with realistic or climatological averaged lateral boundary conditions. The results show that the monsoon westerlies from the south transport moisture and heat to YHRV, converge with the cold air brought by the frequent atmospheric longwave activities in the north, and result in this extreme Meiyu. The frequent cold air from the north can lift warm air, provide unstable conditions, and make the distribution of precipitation similar to the teleconnection pattern in East Asia. The stable WPSH in the east anchors the 2020 Meiyu rainband to the YHTV for a long time. In addition, the contributions of the atmospheric forcings from different directions to evolution of 2020 Meiyu change with time. Before 10 June, the WPSH in the east mainly contributes to the Meiyu evolution. From 11 June to 3 July, the combined effects of atmospheric forcings from the south and north are dominant. From 3 July to 10 July, the cold air from the north plays a major role.

Modeling the climate change impact on hydroclimate fluxes over the Beas basin using a high-resolution glacier-atmosphere-hydrology coupled setup

Rapidly rising temperature is posing a high vulnerability towards stored water resources in the Himalayan region. However, different regions may have different response to global warming and, per se, different consequences. In this study, we coupled Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and WRF-Hydro to estimate present and future hydroclimate fluxes over the Beas basin to understand ongoing and projected impacts of climate change. WRF simulations are carried out at convection-permitting scale to produce high resolution atmospheric forcing that are fed to a calibrated WRF-Hydro to produce the future projection of hydrological fluxes.In our results, no large difference in the amount of precipitation but contrasting pattern is noted. Higher reaches of the baisn are expected to experience lesser precipitation in future under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway). Contrastingly, downstream reaches and valley side region is expected to be wetter under these scenarios. Notably, the contrasting pattern is a composite effect of differential response of precipitation during different seasons (JJAS and DJF) under the changing climate. More so this region is expected to be warmer by 1–3 °C under RCP4.5 and 3–4 °C under RCP8.5 for JJAS at the end-21st-century. For DJF, 2.5–3.5 °C warming under RCP4.5 and 4.5–5 °C warming under RCP8.5 at end-21st-century is expected.Surface runoff is expected to decrease almost throughout the basin except over some regions of higher elevation during early-21st-century under RCP4.5 and during mid-21st-century under RCP8.5. The largest decline is found at end-21st-century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over high altitude regions. Subsurface flow (UGDRNOFF) decreased consistently under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with a stronger declining signal under RCP8.5. UGDRNOFF is expected to decrease by ∼60 % under RCP4.5 and ∼70 % under RCP8.5 at the end of 21st century. Under RCP4.5, snow water equivalent (SNEQV) decreased for the regions having altitude <5 km, however, is found to be increased for the higher elevated regions. A similar response is expected under RCP8.5 until mid-21st–century. But, towards the end-21st-century, SNEQV is expected to decline throughout the year across the region. The highest decline in SNEQV is found to be occurred during the end-21st-century for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Estimating marine carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific using a neural network approach

Abstract. The global ocean takes up nearly a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions annually, but the variability in this uptake at regional scales remains poorly understood. Here we use a neural network approach to interpolate sparse observations, creating a monthly gridded seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) data product from January 1998 to December 2019, at 1/12∘ × 1/12∘ spatial resolution, in the northeast Pacific open ocean, a net sink region. The data product (ANN-NEP; NCEI Accession 0277836) was created from pCO2 observations within the 2021 version of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) and a range of predictor variables acting as proxies for processes affecting pCO2 to create nonlinear relationships to interpolate observations at a spatial resolution 4 times greater than leading global products and with better overall performance. In moving to a higher resolution, we show that the internal division of training data is the most important parameter for reducing overfitting. Using our pCO2 product, wind speed, and atmospheric CO2, we evaluate air–sea CO2 flux variability. On sub-decadal to decadal timescales, we find that the upwelling strength of the subpolar Alaskan Gyre, driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing, acts as the primary control on air–sea CO2 flux variability (r2=0.93, p&lt;0.01). In the northern part of our study region, divergence from atmospheric CO2 is enhanced by increased local wind stress curl, enhancing upwelling and entrainment of naturally CO2-rich subsurface waters, leading to decade-long intervals of strong winter outgassing. During recent Pacific marine heat waves from 2013 on, we find enhanced atmospheric CO2 uptake (by as much as 45 %) due to limited wintertime entrainment. Our product estimates long-term surface ocean pCO2 increase at a rate below the atmospheric trend (1.4 ± 0.1 µatm yr−1) with the slowest increase in the center of the subpolar gyre where there is strong interaction with subsurface waters. This mismatch suggests the northeast Pacific Ocean sink for atmospheric CO2 may be increasing.

Численное моделирование распространения пассивных примесей в Белом море

It is hardly possible to make experiments on transport of potentially dangerous tracers in a sea. Therefore numerical simulation is successfully used to assess the risks and consequences of various events like oil spills, flux of toxicants with river runoff after industrial accidents or phytoplankton in case of harmful algae bloom. As the White Sea is a transport hub and a strategically important location for extraction of natural resources, so it is important to know the most likely scenarios of pollutants behavior. The JASMINE numerical model, based on the FEMAO (Finite-Element Model of the Arctic Ocean) simulates evolution of sea state, including three-dimensional currents, temperature and salinity, and sea ice, and is able to calculate tracer advection, so giving answers to a number of questions related to how pollution evolves in the White Sea. We describe numerical experiments to study advection of floating tracers in the White Sea when the initial distribution is delta-like and located in the mouths of main rivers. Also, we calculate the time of almost complete removal of an initially homogeneous concentration of a passive tracer. Spatial resolution is 3 km, vertical grid is 5 m down to the depth level of 150 m (10 m for depths more than 150 m). The time step is 360 s. NOAA/NCEP atmospheric reanalysis is used for atmospheric forcing. Five main rivers are taken into account with the monthly-mean runoff taken from the multi-year observation data. We have estimated the time needed to remove most of the matter from the sea; it depends on morphometric characteristics of the bays and is the highest for the Onezhskiy bay. Matter exchange between the bays is low, only Dvinskiy-Onezhskiy-Mezenskiy transport is present, as we would expect from the geostrophic current pattern.

AMOC decline and recovery in a warmer climate

This study presents novel insight into the mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduction and its recovery under a warmer climate scenario. An one-thousand-year-long numerical simulation of a global coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere climate model, subjected to a stationary atmospheric radiative forcing, depict a coherent picture of the Arctic sea ice melting as a trigger for the initial AMOC reduction, along with decreases in the northward fluxes of salt and heat. Further atmospheric-driven ocean processes contribute to an erosion of the stable stratification of the fresher, yet colder waters in the surface layers of the North Atlantic, contributing to the recovery of a permanently altered AMOC.