Atmospheric Forcing Research Articles

Changes in the thermodynamical profiles of the subsurface ocean and atmosphere induce cyclones to congregate over the Eastern Arabian Sea

The Arabian Sea accounts for a small fraction of Tropical Cyclones—about 2% of the annual global mean. However, the damage they might inflict there and along its coastlines, which are thickly populated, is considerable. This study explores the influence of the changes in the vertical profiles of atmosphere and oceanic environment throughout the seasons of March–June (MAMJ) and October–December (OND) in clustering the cyclogenesis over the Eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) next to the Indian West coast in recent decades. Further investigation has been done into the precise contribution of atmospheric and oceanic factors to fluctuations in cyclone intensity throughout the MAMJ and OND seasons separately. Two seasons have been studied independently in order to better understand the distinct influences of the vertical fluctuation of atmospheric factors and the thermal structure of the oceanic subsurface on cyclogenesis. More severe cyclones are caused by high tropical cyclone heat potential, and ocean subsurface warming present in this sea region influences the genesis of storms mostly during MAMJ. On the other hand, mid tropospheric relative humidity and thermal instability influences more on increasing cyclogenesis and its clustering over EAS during OND season. The findings suggest that large-scale oceanic subsurface conditions have a crucial influence on cyclogenesis over EAS through oceanic sensitivity to atmospheric forcing. This cyclone tendency and its clustering over EAS needs attention in terms of forecasting, catastrophe risk reduction, and climate change adaptation due to the security of coastal urban and rural habitats, livelihoods, and essential infrastructure along the coasts.

Warming beneath an East Antarctic ice shelf due to increased subpolar westerlies and reduced sea ice

Understanding how climate change influences ocean-driven melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is one of the greatest challenges for projecting future sea level rise. The East Antarctic ice shelf cavities host cold water masses that limit melting, and only a few short-term observational studies exist on what drives warm water intrusions into these cavities. We analyse nine years of continuous oceanographic records from below Fimbulisen and relate them to oceanic and atmospheric forcing. On monthly time scales, warm inflow events are associated with weakened coastal easterlies reducing downwelling in front of the ice shelf. Since 2016, however, we observe sustained warming, with inflowing Warm Deep Water temperatures reaching above 0 °C. This is concurrent with an increase in satellite-derived basal melt rates of 0.62 m yr−1, which nearly doubles the basal mass loss at this relatively cold ice shelf cavity. We find that this transition is linked to a reduction in coastal sea ice cover through an increase in atmosphere–ocean momentum transfer and to a strengthening of remote subpolar westerlies. These results imply that East Antarctic ice shelves may become more exposed to warmer waters with a projected increase of circum-Antarctic westerlies, increasing this region’s relevance for sea level rise projections.

An ultrahigh-resolution E3SM land model simulation framework and its first application to the Seward Peninsula in Alaska

The availability of supercomputers and state-of-science datasets has made it possible to conduct large-scale land simulations at an ultrahigh-resolution. This study reported a computational framework for land surface simulation using the E3SM land model (ELM) at an unprecedented resolution (1 km x 1 km gridcell). The ultrahigh-resolution ELM (uELM) simulation framework includes three parts: (1) high-resolution atmospheric forcing and surface properties dataset generation, (2) massive gridcell-based simulation, and (3) large-scale simulation results analysis. We implemented the uELM simulation framework and completed the first 1 km x 1 km terrestrial ecosystem simulation (from 1850 to 2014) over the Seward Peninsula in Alaska (78,000 km2). The experiment contained two phases: a spin-up simulation and a transient simulation, and required five weeks of calculations using 320 cores in a 44-node Linux HPC computer. It created approximately 1.3 TB of data from the transient simulation alone (1850 - present). We selected sample results (monthly and daily simulation outputs) to illustrate the temporal and spatial variations of several variables in high-latitude Arctic ecosystems’ water, energy, and carbon cycles. At last, we summarized the lessons learned and proposed new developments for full-scale uELM simulations over the entire North American continent (approximately 22,000,000 km2).

The Global Patterns of Instantaneous CO2 Forcing at the Top of the Atmosphere and the Surface

Abstract The radiative forcing of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) has a rich spatial structure and has implications for large-scale climate changes, such as poleward energy transport and tropical circulation change. Beyond the TOA, additional CO2 increases downwelling longwave at the surface, and this change in flux is the surface CO2 forcing. Here we thoroughly evaluate the spatiotemporal variation of the instantaneous, longwave CO2 radiative forcing at both the TOA and surface. The instantaneous forcing is calculated with a radiative transfer model using ERA5 reanalysis fields. Multivariate regression models show that the broadband forcing at the TOA and surface are well predicted by local temperatures, humidity, and cloud radiative effects. The difference between the TOA and surface forcing, the atmospheric forcing, can be either positive or negative and is mostly controlled by the column water vapor, with little explicit dependence on the surface temperature. The role of local variables on the TOA forcing is also assessed by partitioning the change in radiative flux to the component emitted by the surface versus that emitted by the atmosphere. In cold, dry regions, the surface and atmospheric contribution partially cancel out, leading to locally weak or even negative TOA forcing. In contrast, in the warm, moist regions, the surface and atmospheric components strengthen each other, resulting in overall larger TOA forcing. The relative contributions of surface and atmosphere to the TOA forcing depend on the optical thickness in the current climate, which in turn is controlled by the column water vapor.

Light absorption properties of black and brown carbon during the prescribed burning season at an urban background site in Brisbane, Australia

Light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols primarily comprise black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC), and they play a key role in atmospheric radiative forcing and global climate. Here, we present the light absorption, potential sources, and health risks of BC and BrC during the prescribed burning season at an urban background site in Brisbane based on the measurements with a seven-wavelength aethalometer. The enhancements in light absorption at 880 nm were potentially governed by the transport of prescribed burning emissions. Source apportionment results revealed that fossil-fuel (FF) combustion contributed more to the total equivalent BC (eBC) (67%) over the entire measurement period as compared to biomass burning (BB). The percentages of secondary BrC to BrC for BB- and FF-dominated periods were 60% and 21%, respectively, indicating the greater potential of BB emissions to form secondary BrC compared to FF emissions. The diurnal trend showed that the peaks of secondary BrC occurred at nighttime with high relative humidity, implying that the formation of secondary BrC was potentially associated with aqueous reactions. Potential source contribution function (PSCF) results suggested that air masses originating from southern and northern Brisbane were the potential pollution sources, where BB and traffic emissions were dominant. In addition, the health risks of eBC (based on equivalent numbers of passively smoked cigarettes) remarkably increased for periods with elevated eBC emissions, potentially originating from prescribed burns. These findings contribute to our understanding of the impact of BB on the light absorption properties of BC and BrC and could serve as a reference for government officials when performing prescribed burns with reduced environmental and health effects.

Phytoplankton as indicators of global warming?

AbstractTerrestrial plants are sensitive indicators of global warming because their annual cycles of growth and senescence are changing as warming proceeds. Single celled algae are distinct life forms capable of population bursts in any season, so there is uncertainty about phytoplankton phenology as a comparable indicator of global warming. We analyzed 4+ decades of monthly chlorophyll a measurements at two sites in San Francisco Bay and found abrupt shifts during summer months leading to a 48‐day advance in the annual pattern of chlorophyll‐a accumulation at one site and a 36‐day delay at the other. These large phenological changes were not associated with changing temperature, but they were associated with changes in top–down control by bivalve filter feeders as biological communities were restructured by (1) introduction of a non‐native clam, and (2) a shift in atmospheric forcing of the NE Pacific. This study illustrates that changes in phytoplankton phenology are not necessarily responses to or indicators of global warming. However, they can be indicators of human disturbances and natural climate oscillations having effects large enough to mask the effect of climate warming.

The effect of catchment load reductions on water quality in the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreak initiation zone

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) population outbreaks contribute to coral cover decline on Indo-Pacific reefs. On the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enhanced catchment nutrient loads are hypothesised to increase phytoplankton food for CoTS larvae in the outbreak initiation zone. This study examines whether catchment load reductions will improve water quality in this zone during the larval period. We defined the i) initiation zone's spatial extent; ii) larval stage's temporal extent; and iii) water quality thresholds related to larval food, from published information. We applied these to model simulations, developed to quantify the effect of catchment load reductions on GBR water quality (Baird et al., 2021), and found a consistently weak response of chlorophyll-a, total organic nitrogen and large zooplankton concentrations in the initiation zone. Model results indicate marine and atmospheric forcing are more likely to control the planktonic biomass in this zone, even during major flooding events purported to precede CoTS outbreaks.

Satellite-estimated air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea: Patterns and variations during 2003–2019

The Bohai Sea (BS), Yellow Sea (YS), and East China Sea (ECS) together form one of the largest marginal sea systems in the world, including enclosed and semi-enclosed ocean margins and a wide continental shelf influenced by the Changjiang River and the strong western boundary current (Kuroshio). Based on in situ seawater pCO2 data collected on 51 cruises/legs over the past two decades, a satellite retrieval algorithm for seawater pCO2 was developed by combining the semi-mechanistic algorithm and machine learning method (MeSAA-ML-ECS). MeSAA-ML-ECS introduced semi-analytical parameters, including the temperature-dependent seawater pCO2 (pCO2,therm) and upwelling index (UISST), to characterise the combined effect of atmospheric CO2 forcing, thermodynamic effects, and multiple mixing processes on seawater pCO2. The best-selected machine learning algorithm is XGBoost. The satellite-derived pCO2 achieved excellent performance in this complicated marginal sea, with low root mean square error (RMSE = 20 μatm) and mean absolute percentage deviation (APD = 4.12 %) for independent in situ validation dataset. During 2003–2019, the annual average CO2 sinks in the BS, YS, ECS, and entire study area were 0.16 ± 0.26, 3.85 ± 0.68, 14.80 ± 3.09, and 18.81 ± 3.81 Tg C/yr, respectively. Under continuously increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the BS changed from a weak source to a weak sink, the YS experienced interannual fluctuations but did not show significant trend, while the ECS acted as a strong sink with CO2 absorption increased from ∼10 Tg C in 2003 to ∼19 Tg C in 2019. In total, CO2 uptake in the entire study area increased by 85 % in 17 years. For the first time, we present the most refined variation in the satellite-derived pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux dataset. These complete ocean carbon sink statistics and new insights will benefit further research on carbon fixation and its potential capacity.

DOWNSCALING CLIMATE PROJECTIONS TOWARDS COASTAL HYDRODYNAMICS MODELS

State-of-art modelling has shown a largely altered oceanographic environment as a consequence of climate change. The climate models implemented normally present low temporal and spatial resolutions as they aim at a general understanding on how large scale processes vary in a changing climate. Through downscaling projections towards coastal applications it is possible to reach higher resolutions and much more detailed information. If such an approach is performed using unstructured models instead of finite difference ones, it allows for an even better representation of complex morphologies. The latter enables studying more in depth the behavior of coastal environments, such as deltas, that heavily involve the oceanographic and hydrologic components. One of such areas is the Po Delta located in the Northern Adriatic Sea. With its complex system of lagoons and river branches (Maicu et al., 2018), downscaling is fundamental for representing the local processes driven by the interaction between the basin wide circulation and the freshwater inputs. In the context of the European Strategic Italy-Croatia AdriaClim Project (ID 10252001), hydrodynamic downscaling from regional scenario projections to high-resolution coastal applications is undergoing. The final local, high-resolution implementation is a finite element hydrodynamic model that uses the atmospheric forcing, and hydrologic and oceanographic boundaries from the projections.

Scaling the Bubble Penetration Depth in the Ocean

AbstractBubble plume penetration depths have been identified as a key parameter linking subsurface turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rates and whitecaps. From data collected in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, nominally 50°S 40°W, bubble plume penetration depths were estimated from Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements of the acoustic backscatter anomaly. Bubble presence at depth was corroborated using independent measurements of optical scattering. Here, an effective wavelength, observations of significant wave height and atmospheric forcing were used to scale penetration depths of breaking waves under open ocean conditions. The parameterization was developed assuming a correlation between the observed penetration depth and an estimate of the TKE dissipation rate enhancement under breaking waves. The effective wavelength was defined from the effective phase speed based on a momentum and energy balance across the atmospheric wave boundary layer and was considered to be the largest actively wind‐coupled wave and representative of large‐scale breaking for wave ages ranging from 15 to 35 (i.e., 15 ≤ 〈cp/u*〉 ≤ 35). This yields a dimensional penetration depth parameterization in terms of inverse wave age and the length scales under consideration. The parameterization captures the bubble plume penetration depth with stronger forcing leading to deeper injections, reaching up to 9 m. Both length scales are effective at defining the depth of a wave‐affected layer in terms of bubble presence with the effective wavelength better collapsing the data under mixed conditions with deeper plumes associated to larger fractional whitecap coverage.

Seasonal Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnections Originating from Tropical Rainfall Modes Independent of the Niño-3.4 Index in Northern Winters

Abstract This study, based on an analysis with observational and reanalysis data, highlights seasonal tropical–extratropical atmospheric teleconnections originating from tropical rainfall modes unrelated to the Niño-3.4 index for northern winters. The mode decomposition for tropical rainfall is done by first removing the Niño-3.4 index–related variability from the tropical rainfall and then applying rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis to the residual. The corresponding teleconnection patterns are obtained by regressing global atmospheric fields against the time series of the rainfall modes. Analyses of the tropical heating–atmospheric circulation relationship indicate that the circulation anomalies corresponding to the rainfall modes are forced responses to the corresponding rainfall mode. The teleconnection patterns reveal some new features and show that some intrinsic midlatitude patterns can be triggered by tropical forcing with different rainfall patterns. Results from this study are relevant to seasonal climate attribution and prediction analyses and climate model evaluation. As an illustration, the teleconnections from the rainfall modes, together with that related to the Niño-3.4 index and linear trend, are applied to the attribution analyses for the global circulation anomalies of 2019/20 winter and the California dry condition during the strong El Niño winter of 2015/16. The overall impact of these modes in the period of 1980–2021 is also discussed. Significance Statement This study highlights the seasonal tropical–extratropical atmospheric teleconnections independent of the Niño-3.4 index using tropical rainfall modes for northern winters. The reason for using rainfall rather than SST in the mode decomposition is that rainfall represents vertically integrated latent heat, which is the direct forcing of the tropical atmosphere, while SST may have no definite relationship with rainfall in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. The results of this study are applicable to the analysis of climate attribution and prediction and climate model evaluation, and further, may also have the potential to help improve seasonal climate forecasts.

CONDITIONS OF DEEP-WATER UNDERCURRENTS GENERATION IN THE NORTH-EASTERN BLACK SEA

A research of the occurrence factors of narrow non-stationary movements formed in the Black Sea in the lower part of the constant piccoline and deeper is performed. Such currents spread along the continental slope against the predominant cyclonic direction of surface circulation (undercurrents) are observed from several days to several weeks and have a width of 8 to 12 km. The prerequisites for the generation of undercurrents in the Black Sea hydrophysical fields are studied on the example of its north-eastern region, where the undercurrents are fixed most often. The numerical experiment results are analyzed to calculate the hydrophysical fields based on the numerical z-model of MHI with a horizontal resolution of 1.6 km. The experiment is carried out for the 2016-2017 period with assimilation in the model of hydrological observations of temperature and salinity. ERA5 data are used to set atmospheric forcing. The undercurrents are fixed twice in September 2016 and February 2017 according to the observations of the ARGO float ID6901833 in the area of the North Caucasus coast. A change in the direction of currents in the specified area (from cyclonic to anticyclonic and back) is reconstructed in the numerical experiment. Fields of basic hydrophysical parameters and some of their derivative characteristics are built and analyzed. The influence of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies, as well as gradients of the sea water density on the structure and variability of the velocity field in the north-eastern part of the sea is shown. According to the simulation results, narrow undercurrents into which Argo float fell in the fall of 2016 and in the winter of 2017 are distributed within a few days in the anticyclonic direction along the continental slope on horizons from 50–100 to 500 m, and their formation occurred under the conditions of weakening cyclonic Main Black Sea current in the upper layer of the sea and the increase in the Kerch anticyclonic eddy.

Quantify the Information Contributions of External Drivers to Global Ionospheric TEC

AbstractThe ionospheric variabilities are influenced by various drivers, and quantifying their relative contributions is beneficial to ionospheric modeling and ionospheric forecasting, but this is still a significant challenge in the ionospheric community. In present paper, the global ionosphere maps, solar indices, solar wind and interplanetary parameters, geomagnetic indices, and lower atmospheric parameters from 2001 to 2021 are collected, and the Liang‐Kleeman information flow is used to measure the amount of information exchanges from external drivers to ionospheric TEC at different geographical regions, and the normalized Liang‐Kleeman information flow is adopted to quantify their relative information contributions. The results show that the geographical distribution of information flow has prominent hemispheric asymmetry, and overall, the information flows from solar indices (solar wind and interplanetary parameters, geomagnetic indices) to ionospheric TEC in the northern hemisphere are larger than those in the southern hemisphere. Ionospheric self‐influence (i.e., internal processes of the ionosphere) has the largest information contribution to ionospheric TEC, accounting for about 46.78%. Solar activity manifested as P index has the second largest contribution (nearly 35.29%). Solar wind and interplanetary activity represented as IMF magnitude contributes around 2.94%, geomagnetic activity characterized as ASYH index accounts for about 1.52%, lower atmospheric forcing contributes nearly 7.75%, and noise accounts for approximately 5.73%. What's more, the performances of the IRI‐2020 model are evaluated from the perspective of information flow.

Assessing drivers of estuarine pH: A comparative analysis of the continental U.S.A.'s two largest estuaries

AbstractIn estuaries, local processes such as changing material loads from the watershed and complex circulation create dynamic environments with respect to ecosystem metabolism and carbonate chemistry that can strongly modulate impacts of global atmospheric CO2 increases on estuarine pH. Long‐term (> 20 yr) surface water pH records from the USA's two largest estuaries, Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Neuse River Estuary‐Pamlico Sound (NRE‐PS) were examined to understand the relative importance of atmospheric forcing vs. local processes in controlling pH. At the estuaries’ heads, pH increases in CB and decreases in NRE‐PS were driven primarily by changing ratios of river alkalinity to dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations. In upper reaches of CB and middle reaches of the NRE‐PS, pH increases were associated with increases in phytoplankton biomass. There was no significant pH change in the lower NRE‐PS and only the polyhaline CB showed a pH decline consistent with ocean acidification. In both estuaries, interannual pH variability showed robust, positive correlations with chlorophyll a (Chl a) during the spring in mid to lower estuarine regions indicative of strong control by net phytoplankton production. During summer and fall, Chl a and pH negatively correlated in lower regions of both estuaries, given a shift toward heterotrophy driven by changes in phytoplankton community structure and increases in the load ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to organic carbon. Tropical cyclones episodically depressed pH due to vertical mixing of CO2 rich bottom waters and post‐storm terrestrial organic matter loading. Local processes we highlight represent a significant challenge for predicting future estuarine pH.

Numerical Study of Variability of Hydrological Regime for the Southeastern Part of the Black Sea (2010-2021)

The study and forecast of mesoscale dynamic processes in the coastal/shelf zones of seas and oceans is one of the main issues of physical oceanography, because these zones experience the most significant anthropogenic load. Circulation processes, which are closely related to temperature and salinity fields, make a significant contribution to the distribution of various impurities of anthropogenic and natural origin in the marine environment. In the present paper, a high-resolution numerical regional model of the Black Sea dynamics of M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics of Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University (RM-IG) is used to simulate and study some peculiarities of regional hydrophysical processes occurring in 2010-2021 in the southeastern part of the Black Sea covering Georgian sector of the Black Sea and surrounding water area. The RM-IG is based on a primitive system of ocean hydro and thermodynamics equations in hydrostatic approximation written in the Cartesian coordinate system and is implemented with a spatial resolution of 1 km under real atmospheric forcing.

How does tropospheric VOC chemistry affect climate? An investigation of preindustrial control simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. Because of their computational expense, models with comprehensive tropospheric chemistry have typically been run with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which greatly limits the model's ability to generate climate responses to atmospheric forcings. In the past few years, however, several fully coupled models with comprehensive tropospheric chemistry have been developed. For example, the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 as its atmospheric component (CESM2-WACCM6) has implemented fully interactive tropospheric chemistry with 231 chemical species as well as a fully coupled ocean. Earlier versions of this model used a “SOAG scheme” that prescribes bulk emission of a single gas-phase precursor to secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). In contrast, CESM2-WACCM6 simulates the chemistry of a comprehensive range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) responsible for tropospheric aerosol formation. Such a model offers an opportunity to examine the full climate effects of comprehensive tropospheric chemistry. To examine these effects, 211-year preindustrial control simulations were performed using the following two configurations: (1) the standard CESM2-WACCM6 configuration with interactive chemistry over the whole atmosphere (WACtl) and (2) a simplified CESM2-WACCM6 configuration using a SOAG scheme in the troposphere and interactive chemistry in the middle atmosphere (MACtl). The middle-atmospheric chemistry is the same in both configurations, and only the tropospheric chemistry differs. Differences between WACtl and MACtl were analyzed for various fields. Regional differences in annual mean surface temperature range from −4 to 4 K. In the zonal average, there is widespread tropospheric cooling in the extratropics. Longwave forcers are shown to be unlikely drivers of this cooling, and possible shortwave forcers are explored. Evidence is presented that the climate response is primarily due to increased sulfate aerosols in the extratropical stratosphere and cloud feedbacks. As found in earlier studies, enhanced internal mixing with SOAs in WACtl causes widespread reductions of black carbon (BC) and primary organic matter (POM), which are not directly influenced by VOC chemistry. These BC and POM reductions might further contribute to cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. The extratropical tropospheric cooling results in dynamical changes, such as equatorward shifts of the midlatitude jets, which in turn drive extratropical changes in clouds and precipitation. In the tropical upper troposphere, cloud-driven increases in shortwave heating appear to weaken and expand the Hadley circulation, which in turn drives changes in tropical and subtropical precipitation. Some of the climate responses are quantitatively large enough in some regions to motivate future investigations of VOC chemistry's possible influences on anthropogenic climate change.

Assessment of submicron aerosol liquid water content and mass-based growth factors in South Asian outflow over the Indian Ocean

Aerosol-bound water, a ubiquitous and abundant component of atmospheric aerosols, has an impact on regional climate, visibility, human health, the hydrological cycle, and atmospheric chemistry. Yet, the intricate relationship between aerosol liquid water (ALWC) and chemical composition and relative humidity (RH) was not well understood. The present study explores ALWC derived from the ISORROPIA II model using real-time, high-resolution data of non-refractory submicron chemical species and meteorological parameters (temperature and RH) collected over the Indian Ocean as part of the ICARB (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases, and Radiation Budget)-2018 experiment. Results show that ALWC values over the South Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) were found to be higher by 4–6 times than those observed over the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) due to a large decrease in aerosol loading from SEAS to EIO. ALWC peaked in the early morning hours (4:00–7:00), with greater values during the nighttime and lower values during the daytime across SEAS, which is comparable with RH variation. While the ratio of organics-to-SO42− mass fraction linearly decreased with increasing mass-based growth factors (MGFs) over EIO, such a scenario was not observed over SEAS. The latitudinal gradient of mass fraction of ALWC had shown a decrease towards EIO, consistent with organic fraction. The extinction coefficient of the dry mass of submicron particles is noticeably increased by 40 % by ALWC over SEAS and EIO. Moreover, ALWC could enhance the aerosol negative forcing by an average of 66 % (64 %) over SEAS (EIO) at the top of the atmosphere during the cruise period. These inferences imply that ALWC is the key factor in assessing the role of aerosols on atmospheric radiative forcing. Overall, the present study highlights the serious need to consider the ALWC in climate forcing simulations, particularly in moist tropical environments where their effect can be significant.

Submesoscale Motions Driven by Down‐Front Wind Around an Anticyclonic Eddy With a Cold Core

AbstractThis study investigates the dynamics and diurnal variations of submesoscale motions around an anticyclonic eddy with a cold core using observations and simulations. Glider observations reveal vigorous submesoscale motions within the mixed layer (ML) at the eddy periphery due to strong frontal structure. The main driving force behind these motions is external atmospheric forcing, especially down‐front wind, which injects negative Ertel potential vorticity (PV) into the ML, triggering frontal instability in the low‐PV layer. Observations indicate a regular diurnal cycle of submesoscale motions at the eddy periphery in the absence of strong daytime winds. During the night, cooling and winds inject negative PV, leading to instability, while daytime heating and weak winds contribute to restratification. However, the presence of strong down‐front winds during the day disrupts the regular diurnal cycle, causing frontal instability even during daylight hours. The observed eddy periphery is reconstructed in a turbulence‐resolving large‐eddy simulation, confirming and extending the observations. The combined results emphasize the crucial impact of atmospheric forcing, particularly down‐front wind, on the diurnal variations of submesoscale motions around abnormal anticyclonic eddies. Diurnal heat fluxes play a key role in maintaining the diurnal cycle of these motions, while transient strong down‐front winds are essential for breaking the regular cycle and rapidly triggering frontal instability.

The Spatio-Temporal Cloud Frequency Distribution in the Galapagos Archipelago as Seen from MODIS Cloud Mask Data

Clouds play an important role in the climate system; nonetheless, the relationship between climate change in general and regional cloud occurrence is not yet well understood. This particularly holds for remote areas such as the iconic Galapagos archipelago in Ecuador. As a first step towards a better understanding, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of cloud cover over Galapagos. We found that cloud frequency and distribution exhibit large inter- and intra-annual variability due to the changing influence of climatic drivers (trade winds, sea surface temperature, El Niño/La Niña events) and spatial variations due to terrain characteristics and location within the archipelago. The highest cloud frequencies occur in mid-elevations on the slopes exposed to the southerly trade winds (south-east slopes). Towards the highlands ( >900 m a.s.l), cloud frequency decreases, with a sharp leap towards high-level crater areas mainly on Isabela Island that frequently immerse into the trade inversion layer. With respect to the diurnal cycle, we found a lower cloud frequency over the islands in the evening than in the morning. Seasonally, cloud frequency is higher during the hot season (January–May) than in the cool season (June–December). However, spatial differences in cloudiness were more pronounced during the cool season months. We further analyzed two periods beyond average atmospheric forcing. During El Niño 2015, the cloud frequency was higher than usual, and differences between altitudes and aspects were less pronounced. La Niña 2007 led to negative anomalies in cloud frequency over the islands, with intensified differences between altitude and aspect.

A graph approach for fast dense array inter-station phase delay interpretation

SUMMARY We present a phase-delay detection procedure adapted for seismic arrays composed of a large number of stations. We use graph formalism to introduce a direct method to compute station phase delays starting from inter-station phase differences deduced from noise cross-correlation functions. We focus this study on surface wave main arrival as phase-difference evaluation at each station requires high coherence level. Then, we perform numerical experiments with synthetic data computed as a realistic and dense network of 79 stations in a 400 by $400\, \mathrm{km^2}$ square box. For one of the 79 stations, we simulate a phase difference of 15 per cent of the signal period. Further, we evaluate the accuracy and precision of phase-delay estimation at each station with regard to the quality of the cross-correlation functions (i.e. the signal-to-noise ratio). When the inter-station coherence levels are larger than 0.6 (i.e. a high-quality signal), we show good agreement between the phase-delay estimation and its expected value of 15 per cent of the signal period. We introduce a coherence-weighted estimate of phase delay and show that applying this weighting allows us to be less vulnerable to phase-delay underestimation for intermediate-quality signals. Then, the method is applied to experimental data recorded by a high density nodal array with 923 vertical geophones with 19 d of continuous records, centred on the 600 by $600\, \mathrm{m^2}$ damage zone of the Clark branch of the San Jacinto Fault Zone, Southern California (USA). We verify that the San Jacinto network is well synchronized, as most of the estimated phase delays are less than 2 per cent of the central period of the signal, and they are associated with high levels of inter-station coherence. More surprisingly, the spatial features of the estimated phase delays show deterministic geographical patterns that are related to topography and that exhibit similarities with phase velocity maps at $4.5\, \mathrm{Hz}$ from previous 3-D velocity inversions. This suggests that the topographic effect may be accounted for to estimate accurate phase delays. Also, we note that the temporal variability of the estimated phase delays in the case of the San Jacinto data set are related to atmospheric forcing. Our direct method for estimating phase delays is applicable to structure-oriented monitoring studies, and it opens perspectives in the monitoring of seismic velocity variations.