Atmospheric CO2 Variations Research Articles

Spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric CO2 and its main causes: A case study in Xi'an city, China

Cities account for most anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and thus play an important role in carbon mitigation. However, the variability of atmospheric CO2 caused by the complex emission sources and topography within city remains a challenge in evaluating urban CO2 emissions. Specifically, the mechanism of spatial and temporal patterns is still unclear at city scale. In this work, we explored the spatial and seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO2 at the city scale in Xi'an and attempted to illustrate the mechanisms of these patterns based on the analysis of CO2 sources and sinks. Using the observed radiocarbon (14C) in atmospheric CO2 as a tracer, we determined the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel (CO2ff) and the biosphere (CO2bio) in different seasons and city areas. The results showed that CO2ff in urban areas is significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that in suburban areas, and explained 82% and 74% of the spatial differences in winter and summer, respectively. Based on the analysis of δ13C of CO2 in the local sources, the depleted δ13C of urban site indicated greater influences from traffic or natural gas in the urban area than that in the suburban area. These findings suggest that the spatial differences of atmospheric CO2 are dominated by different emission intensities of fossil fuels between urban and suburban areas. In contrast, the contributions of CO2ff to the seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 were different between urban and suburban areas, that is CO2ff contributed as much as CO2bio to the seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 in suburban area, but the contribution increased with the increasing of human activities from suburban to urban area, and accounted for 57% of seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 in the urban area. In addition, we also found that under the influence of the special topography of Xi'an city, the frequent fluctuations of atmospheric CO2 concentration in winter largely depend on the different wind conditions.

An ice–climate oscillatory framework for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Intermediate glacial states were characterized by large temperature changes in Greenland and the North Atlantic, referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) variability, with some transitions occurring over a few decades. D–O variability included changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperature changes of opposite sign and asynchronous timing in each hemisphere, shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and variations in atmospheric CO2. Palaeorecords and numerical studies indicate that the AMOC, with a tight coupling to Nordic Seas sea ice, is central to D–O variability, yet, a complete theory remains elusive. In this Review, we synthesize the climatic expression and processes proposed to explain D–O cyclicity. What emerges is an oscillatory framework of the AMOC–sea-ice system, arising through feedbacks involving the atmosphere, cryosphere and the Earth’s biogeochemical system. Palaeoclimate observations indicate that the AMOC might be more sensitive to perturbations than climate models currently suggest. Tighter constraints on AMOC stability are, thus, needed to project AMOC changes over the coming century as a response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. Progress can be achieved by additional observational constraints and numerical simulations performed with coupled climate–ice-sheet models.

Gas leakage recognition for CO2 geological sequestration based on the time series neural network

Abstract The leakage of stored and transported CO2 is a risk for geological sequestration technology. One of the most challenging problems is to recognize and determine CO2 leakage signal in the complex atmosphere background. In this work, a time series model was proposed to forecast the atmospheric CO2 variation and the approximation error of the model was utilized to recognize the leakage. First, the fitting neural network trained with recently past CO2 data was applied to predict the daily atmospheric CO2. Further, the recurrent nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model was adopted to get more accurate prediction. Compared with fitting neural network, the approximation errors of NARX have a clearer baseline, and the abnormal leakage signal can be seized more easily even in small release cases. Hence, the fitting approximation of time series prediction model is a potential excellent method to capture atmospheric abnormal signal for CO2 storage and transportation technologies.

Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect‐Model Framework

AbstractOn interannual timescales the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by the response of the land and ocean carbon sinks to climate variability. Yet, it is unknown to what extent this variability limits the predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Using perfect‐model Earth System Model simulations, we show that variations in atmospheric CO2 are potentially predictable for 3 years. We find a 2‐year predictability horizon for global oceanic CO2 flux with longer regional predictability of up to 7 years. The 2‐year predictability horizon of terrestrial CO2 flux originates in the tropics and midlatitudes. With the predictability of the isolated effects of land and ocean carbon sink on atmospheric CO2 of 5 and 12 years respectively, land dampens the overall predictability of atmospheric CO2 variations. Our research shows the potential of Earth System Model‐based predictions to forecast multiyear variations in atmospheric CO2.

Middle Albian climate fluctuation recorded in the carbon isotope composition of terrestrial plant matter

This study presents the carbon isotopic record for terrestrial plant matter (δ13CTPM) in the Jinju Formation, Gyeongsang Basin, Korea, during the middle Albian. The measured δ13CTPM provides continuous high-resolution temporal variations for reconstructing climate change during the middle Albian, which has previously been poorly understood. We found that the δ13CTPM variation mostly exceeds the isotopic variation of the contemporaneous atmospheric CO2, indicating that the variation was primarily governed by climate change rather than atmospheric source. The δ13CTPM values corrected to modern atmospheric CO2 show cyclic fluctuations (−27.8‰ to −23.3‰), reflecting a temporal variation of water availability and/or a related taxonomic turnover of plant communities in the hinterland of Jinju Lake. Based on a transfer function for estimating mean annual rainfall (MAR) from the measured δ13CTPM values, the middle Albian climate of the basin was found to vary from sub-humid to humid conditions (MAR: 500–1500 mm). This variability suggests that Albian climate change at middle latitudes occurred more frequently than previously interpreted. The temporal increase in aridity observed in the basin (35–38°N) has not been detected in the isotopic records of the Cretaceous Hokkaido section (42–45°N) in Japan. This difference implies the possibility of a periodic northward shift or expansion of the northern hemisphere subtropical high pressure belt.

The Paleogene atmospheric CO2 concentrations reconstructed using stomatal analysis of fossil Metasequoia needles

During the Paleogene, the Earth experienced a global greenhouse climate, which was much warmer and more humid than the present climate. The present global warming is ascribed to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 caused by human activity since the industrial revolution; therefore, knowledge of the role of atmospheric CO2 in the thermal climate during the Paleogene will be helpful for understanding current and future climate. However, unlike for the late Cenozoic, atmospheric CO2 reconstructions for the Paleogene are still inconsistent and vary between preindustrial-level to values over 4000 ppmv. In this study, we reconstructed the levels of atmospheric CO2 in the early and middle Paleocene and middle Eocene based on the stomatal index of fossil Metasequoia needles collected from four fossil sites in Canada and Japan. We found the atmospheric CO2 levels during the early and middle Paleocene to be similar to that of the present, and up to twice the present atmospheric CO2 level was found during the middle Eocene. Our estimated atmospheric CO2 level supports the hypothesis that the climate changes during the Paleogene cannot be explained merely by atmospheric CO2 variations, which suggests that atmospheric CO2 might not have always played a critical role in climate change during these ancient epochs and therefore cannot be a direct analogy for the current global warming.

A numerical examination of the effect of sulfide dissolution on silicate weathering

Silicate weathering regulates climate on geological time scales as a net, climate-sensitive sink of atmospheric CO2. On the other hand, sulfuric acid produced through sulfide dissolution affects silicate weathering, diminishing its effectiveness as a climate regulator based on evidence from river chemistry. This study takes a theoretical approach to quantitatively examine the effect of sulfide dissolution, coupling a one-dimensional model of pyrite weathering to that of albite transformation to kaolinite. The coupled model reveals that when the reaction front of sulfide is deeper than that of silicates reacting with CO2, the silicate-weathering feedback on climate is not directly affected by sulfide dissolution, but only indirectly through oceanic processes such as reverse weathering and carbonate deposition. In turn, when sulfide dissolution occurs within zones of CO2-silicate reactions close to the surface, the feedback between climate and silicate weathering can be significantly weakened because sulfuric acid competes effectively with carbonic acid in mineral dissolution. As the depth of the sulfide reaction front can be changed by variations in water table depth, the latter feedback weakening could have occurred in concert with climate-change-driven water table fluctuations, amplifying atmospheric CO2 variations during the Phanerozoic.

Towards the use of the coccolith vital effects in palaeoceanography: A field investigation during the middle Miocene in the SW Pacific Ocean

Recent culture studies of living coccolithophores have established a biogeochemical framework for the use of the geochemical compositions of their calcite biominerals as proxies in palaeoceanography. Yet, questions remain regarding the transferability of such experimental data to fossil coccoliths. Here we analysed the carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of Miocene coccoliths to assess the suitability of such data for reconstructing the past environment. We found that the oxygen isotopic compositions of the relatively small Noelaerhabdaceae coccoliths gathered in the 3–5 μm fractions appear to be a suitable material to derive temperatures after a correction for a constant vital offset of 0.8‰. The interpretation of the isotopic signal of the relatively large Coccolithales coccoliths (5–8 μm fractions) is more complex, but supports results from cultures. The expression of the carbon and oxygen vital effect in coccoliths appears to be limited during the so-called Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO), a period of relatively elevated atmospheric pCO2. Subsequently, during the Miocene Climatic Transition (MCT; ~14 Ma), which saw a decline in pCO2, large carbon and oxygen vital effects were expressed in coccolith calcite. This phenomenon predates the postulated “Late Miocene Threshold” by approximately 4 Ma, and cannot be reconciled as a temporally-synchronous nor localised feature. Furthermore, we observed a statistically significant correlation between the oxygen and carbon offsets of the small relative to large coccoliths (hence, the vital effect per se) that is likely linked to variations in atmospheric CO2. This biogeochemical correlation further supports a forcing of the environment on the cellular physiology (growth rate and utilisation of intracellular carbon) and ultimately the magnitude of isotopic vital effects in fossil coccoliths.

High-resolution spatiotemporal patterns of China’s FFCO2 emissions under the impact of LUCC from 2000 to 2015

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions have become a principal driver behind the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric CO2 in the urban surface layer. This study quantifies the 2000–2015 urban high-resolution spatiotemporal patterns of China’s FFCO2 emissions under the impact of the land-use and land-cover change. Multi-source data were used together with various up-to-date geostatistics and spatial analysis methods. FFCO2 emissions were determined to rise over the 15 years in the highest emitting cities in the South and East of China. The high-value clusters inside of all cities expanded outward from their city centers and in some cases transferred to economic development zones or new city centers, while the expansion speeds and variation time were found to differ significantly. We found further that then FFCO2 emissions spatial distribution is interconnected with diverse factors: urbanization, and either croplands (rainfed, irrigated, and post-flooding) or native vegetation, being the two most important. As expected, the increase in urban areas was associated with increased FFCO2 emissions, while the wettability in croplands or the increase in native vegetation have an association with the decrease of FFCO2 emissions. Unlike previous studies, we have found no change associated with changes in water cover. Finally, while the primary source of FFCO2 emissions is still coal, there has been a gradual move to cleaner energy (natural gas in Beijing) or more efficient industrial processes (Wuxi and Dalian), although diverse industrial structures and energy efficiencies exist. Over time, the current spatial patterns of FFCO2 emissions in China will conflict with these trends at the macroscale.

Assessment of spatio-temporal distribution of CO2 over greater Asia using the WRF–CO2 model

In-depth knowledge of global and regional carbon budget is required for effective policymaking to mitigate the global climate change. However, Asian carbon budget shows large uncertainty due to both lack of sufficient observations and detailed understanding of the existing CO2 observations. A regional air quality model (WRF–CO2) is set up for simulating atmospheric CO2 variations over the greater Asia region (68–124°E, 2°S–45°N) for the period 2010–2012. The WRF–CO2 simulations are compared with observations from nine sites and a global Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model (ACTM). The comparisons suggest WRF–CO2 simulation is able to capture large scale features in the observed variabilities, with varied ability at fine scales depending on representation of surface fluxes and meteorology around the observation sites. Analysis of CO2 signals from individual flux components suggests that ocean flux has least contribution to the CO2 variation ( 80%). CO2 mixing ratios are found to be maximum in northern hemisphere (NH) winter over East Asia, while they are maximum in NH spring over Indian subcontinent. Observed peak-to-trough seasonal amplitude is lowest (4.5 ppm) for the site Bukit Koto Tabang, Indonesia and highest (29.5 ppm) for Shangdianzi in China. Statistical analysis from monthly mean CO2 time series shows that correlation coefficient and normalised standard deviation with observations, are generally equal or better for the WRF–CO2 than the coarser resolution ACTM. Study of synoptic scale CO2 variations shows that the WRF–CO2 is able to better resolve daytime signatures than those in the night. Year-to-year CO2 variations of seasonal cycle amplitude is highest (~5 ppm) at Nainital, India compared to all other sites.

Continuous simulations over the last 40 million years with a coupled Antarctic ice sheet-sediment model

Much of the knowledge of Antarctic Ice Sheet variations since its inception ~34 Ma derives from marine sediments on the continental shelf, deposited in glacimarine or sub-ice environments by advancing and retreating grounded ice, and observed today by seismic profiling and coring. Here we apply a 3-D coupled ice sheet and sediment model from 40 Ma to the present, with the goal of directly linking ice-sheet variations with the sediment record. The ice-sheet model uses vertically averaged ice dynamics and parameterized grounding-line flux. The sediment model includes quarrying of bedrock, sub-ice transport, and marine deposition. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing are determined by uniform shifts to modern climatology in proportion to records of atmospheric CO2, deep-sea-core δ18O, and orbital insolation variations. The model is run continuously over the last 40 Myr at coarse resolution (80 or 160 km), modeling post-Eocene ice, landscape evolution and off-shore sediment packages in a single self-consistent simulation. Strata and unconformities are tracked by recording times of deposition within the model sediment stacks, which can be compared directly with observed seismic profiles. The initial bedrock topography is initialized to 34 Ma geologic reconstructions, or an iterative procedure is used that yields independent estimates of paleo bedrock topography. Preliminary results are compared with recognized Cenozoic ice-sheet variations, modern sediment distributions and seismic profiles, and modern and paleo bedrock topographies.

Carbon and silica megasink in deep-sea sediments of the Congo terminal lobes

Carbon and silicon cycles at the Earth surface are linked to long-term variations of atmospheric CO2 and oceanic primary production. In these cycles, the river-sea interface is considered a biogeochemical hotspot, and deltas presently receive and preserve a major fraction of riverine particles in shallow water sediments. In contrast, periods of glacial maximum lowstand were characterized by massive exports of sediments to the deep-sea via submarine canyons and accumulation in deep-sea fans. Here, we calculate present-day mass balances for organic carbon (OC) and amorphous silica (aSi) in the terminal lobe complex of the Congo River deep-sea fan as an analogue for glacial periods. We show that this lobe complex constitutes a megasink with the current accumulation of 18 and 35% of the OC and aSi river input, respectively. This increases the estimates of organic carbon burial by 19% in the South Atlantic Ocean in a zone representing less than 0.01% of the basin. These megasinks might have played a role in carbon trapping in oceanic sediments during glacial times.

Early Interglacial Legacy of Deglacial Climate Instability

AbstractThroughout the last glacial cycle millennial timescale variations in atmospheric CO2 occurred in parallel with perturbations in deep ocean circulation, which were themselves reflected by observable changes in surface conditions across the North Atlantic region. Here we use continuous proxy records to argue that an equivalent relationship has held throughout the last 800 kyr, that is, since before the first occurrence of Heinrich events (strictly defined). Our results highlight the importance of internal climate dynamics in amplifying external (insolation) forcing on the climate system to produce the large amplitude of glacial terminations (deglaciations) during the middle to late Pleistocene. We show that terminations are characterized by an interval of intense ice rafting followed by a subsequent and abrupt shift to anomalously warm surface conditions (with respect to the more gradually evolving background state), which we interpret to reflect an abrupt recovery of deep ocean circulation in the Atlantic. According to our synthesis, this is followed by a period of enhanced (or at least anomalous) overturning lasting thousands of years until equilibrium interglacial conditions are attained and during which atmospheric CO2 is likely to decrease. Our results therefore suggest that deglacial oscillations in ocean circulation can have a lasting influence on early interglacial climate and highlight the transient nature of atmospheric CO2 overshoots associated with the onset of some previous interglacials. Accordingly, we suggest that these intervals should be considered as a part of the deglacial process. This has implications for studies concerned with the evolution of atmospheric CO2 during interglacial periods including the Holocene.

Reduced marine phytoplankton sulphur emissions in the Southern Ocean during the past seven glacials

Marine biogenic sulphur affects Earth’s radiation budget and may be an indicator of primary productivity in the Southern Ocean, which is closely related to atmospheric CO2 variability through the biological pump. Previous ice-core studies in Antarctica show little climate dependence of marine biogenic sulphur emissions and hence primary productivity, contradictory to marine sediment records. Here we present new 720,000-year ice core records from Dome Fuji in East Antarctica and show that a large portion of non-sea-salt sulphate, which was traditionally used as a proxy for marine biogenic sulphate, likely originates from terrestrial dust during glacials. By correcting for this, we make a revised calculation of biogenic sulphate and find that its flux is reduced in glacial periods. Our results suggest reduced dimethylsulphide emissions in the Antarctic Zone of the Southern Ocean during glacials and provide new evidence for the coupling between climate and the Southern Ocean sulphur cycle.

Modelling CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; weather – why horizontal resolution matters

Abstract. Climate change mitigation efforts require information on the current greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations and their sources and sinks. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its variability in the atmosphere is modulated by the synergy between weather and CO2 surface fluxes, often referred to as CO2 weather. It is interpreted with the help of global or regional numerical transport models, with horizontal resolutions ranging from a few hundreds of kilometres to a few kilometres. Changes in the model horizontal resolution affect not only atmospheric transport but also the representation of topography and surface CO2 fluxes. This paper assesses the impact of horizontal resolution on the simulated atmospheric CO2 variability with a numerical weather prediction model. The simulations are performed using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) CO2 forecasting system at different resolutions from 9 to 80 km and are evaluated using in situ atmospheric surface measurements and atmospheric column-mean observations of CO2, as well as radiosonde and SYNOP observations of the winds. The results indicate that both diurnal and day-to-day variability of atmospheric CO2 are generally better represented at high resolution, as shown by a reduction in the errors in simulated wind and CO2. Mountain stations display the largest improvements at high resolution as they directly benefit from the more realistic orography. In addition, the CO2 spatial gradients are generally improved with increasing resolution for both stations near the surface and those observing the total column, as the overall inter-station error is also reduced in magnitude. However, close to emission hotspots, the high resolution can also lead to a deterioration of the simulation skill, highlighting uncertainties in the high-resolution fluxes that are more diffuse at lower resolutions. We conclude that increasing horizontal resolution matters for modelling CO2 weather because it has the potential to bring together improvements in the surface representation of both winds and CO2 fluxes, as well as an expected reduction in numerical errors of transport. Modelling applications like atmospheric inversion systems to estimate surface fluxes will only be able to benefit fully from upgrades in horizontal resolution if the topography, winds and prior flux distribution are also upgraded accordingly. It is clear from the results that an additional increase in resolution might reduce errors even further. However, the horizontal resolution sensitivity tests indicate that the change in the CO2 and wind modelling error with resolution is not linear, making it difficult to quantify the improvement beyond the tested resolutions. Finally, we show that the high-resolution simulations are useful for the assessment of the small-scale variability of CO2 which cannot be represented in coarser-resolution models. These representativeness errors need to be considered when assimilating in situ data and high-resolution satellite data such as Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Chinese Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite Mission (TanSat) and future missions such as the Geostationary Carbon Observatory (GeoCarb) and the Sentinel satellite constellation for CO2. For these reasons, the high-resolution CO2 simulations provided by the CAMS in real time can be useful to estimate such small-scale variability in real time, as well as providing boundary conditions for regional modelling studies and supporting field experiments.

Climate evolution across the Mid-Brunhes Transition

Abstract. The Mid-Brunhes Transition (MBT) began ∼ 430 ka with an increase in the amplitude of the 100 kyr climate cycles of the past 800 000 years. The MBT has been identified in ice-core records, which indicate interglaciations became warmer with higher atmospheric CO2 levels after the MBT, and benthic oxygen isotope (δ18O) records, which suggest that post-MBT interglaciations had higher sea levels and warmer temperatures than pre-MBT interglaciations. It remains unclear, however, whether the MBT was a globally synchronous phenomenon that included other components of the climate system. Here, we further characterize changes in the climate system across the MBT through statistical analyses of ice-core and δ18O records as well as sea-surface temperature, benthic carbon isotope, and dust accumulation records. Our results demonstrate that the MBT was a global event with a significant increase in climate variance in most components of the climate system assessed here. However, our results indicate that the onset of high-amplitude variability in temperature, atmospheric CO2, and sea level at ∼430 ka was preceded by changes in the carbon cycle, ice sheets, and monsoon strength during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 14 and MIS 13.

Seasonal evaluation of tropospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; over the Asia-Pacific region observed by the CONTRAIL commercial airliner measurements

Abstract. Measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is indispensable for top-down estimation of surface CO2 sources/sinks by an atmospheric transport model. Despite the growing importance of Asia in the global carbon budget, the region has only been sparsely monitored for atmospheric CO2 and our understanding of atmospheric CO2 variations in the region (and thereby that of the regional carbon budget) is still limited. In this study, we present climatological CO2 distributions over the Asia-Pacific region obtained from the CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner) measurements. The high-frequency in-flight CO2 measurements over 10 years reveal a clear seasonal variation in CO2 in the upper troposphere (UT), with a maximum occurring in April–May and a minimum in August–September. The CO2 mole fraction in the UT north of 40∘ N is low and highly variable in June–August due to the arrival of air parcels with seasonally low CO2 caused by the summertime biospheric uptake in boreal Eurasia. For August–September in particular, the UT CO2 is noticeably low within the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone associated with the convective transport of strong biospheric CO2 uptake signal over South Asia. During September as the anticyclone decays, a spreading of this low-CO2 area in the UT is observed in the vertical profiles of CO2 over the Pacific Rim of continental East Asia. Simulation results identify the influence of anthropogenic and biospheric CO2 fluxes in the seasonal evolution of the spatial CO2 distribution over the Asia-Pacific region. It is inferred that a substantial contribution to the UT CO2 over the northwestern Pacific comes from continental East Asian emissions in spring; but in the summer monsoon season, the prominent air mass origin switches to South Asia and/or Southeast Asia with a distinct imprint of the biospheric CO2 uptake. The CONTRAIL CO2 data provide useful constraints to model estimates of surface fluxes and to the evaluation of the satellite observations, in particular for the Asia-Pacific region.

The impact of spatiotemporal variability in atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; concentration on global terrestrial carbon fluxes

Abstract. Land carbon fluxes, e.g., gross primary production (GPP) and net biome production (NBP), are controlled in part by the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric conditions near the Earth's surface. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) has recently proposed increased spatial and temporal resolutions for the surface CO2 concentrations used to calculate GPP, and yet a comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of this increased resolution for carbon cycle dynamics is missing. Here, using global offline simulations with a terrestrial biosphere model, the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon cycle fluxes to multiple facets of the spatiotemporal variability in atmospheric CO2 is quantified. Globally, the spatial variability in CO2 is found to increase the mean global GPP by a maximum of 0.05 Pg C year−1, as more vegetated land areas benefit from higher CO2 concentrations induced by the inter-hemispheric gradient. The temporal variability in CO2, however, compensates for this increase, acting to reduce overall global GPP; in particular, consideration of the diurnal variability in atmospheric CO2 reduces multi-year mean global annual GPP by 0.5 Pg C year−1 and net land carbon uptake by 0.1 Pg C year−1. The relative contributions of the different facets of CO2 variability to GPP are found to vary regionally and seasonally, with the seasonal variation in atmospheric CO2, for example, having a notable impact on GPP in boreal regions during fall. Overall, in terms of estimating global GPP, the magnitudes of the sensitivities found here are minor, indicating that the common practice of applying spatially uniform and annually increasing CO2 (without higher-frequency temporal variability) in offline studies is a reasonable approach – the small errors induced by ignoring CO2 variability are undoubtedly swamped by other uncertainties in the offline calculations. Still, for certain regional- and seasonal-scale GPP estimations, the proper treatment of spatiotemporal CO2 variability appears important.

Contrasting interannual atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; variabilities and their terrestrial mechanisms for two types of El Niños

Abstract. El Niño has two different flavors, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, with different global teleconnections. However, their different impacts on the interannual carbon cycle variability remain unclear. Here we compared the behaviors of interannual atmospheric CO2 variability and analyzed their terrestrial mechanisms during these two types of El Niños, based on the Mauna Loa (MLO) CO2 growth rate (CGR) and the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model's (DGVM) historical simulations. The composite analysis showed that evolution of the MLO CGR anomaly during EP and CP El Niños had three clear differences: (1) negative or neutral precursors in the boreal spring during an El Niño developing year (denoted as yr0), (2) strong or weak amplitudes, and (3) durations of the peak from December (yr0) to April during an El Niño decaying year (denoted as yr1) compared to October (yr0) to January (yr1) for a CP El Niño, respectively. The global land–atmosphere carbon flux (FTA) simulated by multi-models was able to capture the essentials of these characteristics. We further found that the gross primary productivity (GPP) over the tropics and the extratropical Southern Hemisphere (Trop + SH) generally dominated the global FTA variations during both El Niño types. Regional analysis showed that during EP El Niño events significant anomalous carbon uptake caused by increased precipitation and colder temperatures, corresponding to the negative precursor, occurred between 30° S and 20° N from January (yr0) to June (yr0). The strongest anomalous carbon releases, largely due to the reduced GPP induced by low precipitation and warm temperatures, occurred between the equator and 20° N from February (yr1) to August (yr1). In contrast, during CP El Niño events, clear carbon releases existed between 10° N and 20° S from September (yr0) to September (yr1), resulting from the widespread dry and warm climate conditions. Different spatial patterns of land temperatures and precipitation in different seasons associated with EP and CP El Niños accounted for the evolutionary characteristics of GPP, terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and the resultant FTA. Understanding these different behaviors of interannual atmospheric CO2 variability, along with their terrestrial mechanisms during EP and CP El Niños, is important because the CP El Niño occurrence rate might increase under global warming.

Influences of coral genotype and seawater pCO2 on skeletal Ba/Ca and Mg/Ca in cultured massive Porites spp. corals

Coral skeletal Ba/Ca is a proxy for seawater Ba/Ca, used to infer oceanic upwelling and terrigenous runoff while [Mg2+] is implicated in the control of coral biomineralisation. We cultured large individuals (>12 cm diameter) of 3 genotypes of massive adult Porites spp. corals over a range of seawater pCO2 to test how atmospheric CO2 variations affect skeletal Ba/Ca and Mg/Ca. We identified the skeleton deposited after a 5 month acclimation period and analysed the skeletal Ba/Ca and Mg/Ca by secondary ion mass spectrometry. Skeletal Mg/Ca varies significantly between some duplicate colonies of the same coral genotype hampering identification of genotype and seawater pCO2 effects. Coral aragonite:seawater Ba/Ca partition coefficients (KD Ba/Ca) do not vary significantly between duplicate colonies of the same coral genotype. We observe large variations in KD Ba/Ca between different massive Porites spp. coral genotypes irrespective of seawater pCO2. These variations do not correlate with coral calcification, photosynthesis or respiration rates or with skeletal KD Mg/Ca or KD Sr/Ca. Seawater pCO2 does not significantly affect KD Ba/Ca in 2 genotypes but KD Ba/Ca is significantly higher at 750 μatm seawater pCO2 than at 180 μatm in 1 P. lutea genotype. Genotype specific variations in KD Ba/Ca between different Porites spp. could yield large errors (~250%) in reconstructions of seawater Ba when comparing Ba/Ca between corals. Analysis of fossil coral specimens deposited at low seawater pCO2, may underestimate past seawater Ba/Ca and ocean upwelling/freshwater inputs when compared with modern specimens but the effect is small in comparison with the observed difference between coral genotypes.