High-resolution spatiotemporal patterns of China’s FFCO2 emissions under the impact of LUCC from 2000 to 2015

Abstract

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions have become a principal driver behind the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration and spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric CO2 in the urban surface layer. This study quantifies the 2000–2015 urban high-resolution spatiotemporal patterns of China’s FFCO2 emissions under the impact of the land-use and land-cover change. Multi-source data were used together with various up-to-date geostatistics and spatial analysis methods. FFCO2 emissions were determined to rise over the 15 years in the highest emitting cities in the South and East of China. The high-value clusters inside of all cities expanded outward from their city centers and in some cases transferred to economic development zones or new city centers, while the expansion speeds and variation time were found to differ significantly. We found further that then FFCO2 emissions spatial distribution is interconnected with diverse factors: urbanization, and either croplands (rainfed, irrigated, and post-flooding) or native vegetation, being the two most important. As expected, the increase in urban areas was associated with increased FFCO2 emissions, while the wettability in croplands or the increase in native vegetation have an association with the decrease of FFCO2 emissions. Unlike previous studies, we have found no change associated with changes in water cover. Finally, while the primary source of FFCO2 emissions is still coal, there has been a gradual move to cleaner energy (natural gas in Beijing) or more efficient industrial processes (Wuxi and Dalian), although diverse industrial structures and energy efficiencies exist. Over time, the current spatial patterns of FFCO2 emissions in China will conflict with these trends at the macroscale.