Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability Research Articles

Centennial‐Scale Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP6 Models Shaped by Arctic–North Atlantic Interactions and Sea Ice Biases

AbstractClimate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model simulations, large uncertainties remain on the magnitude and physical mechanisms driving centennial‐scale AMOC variability. For these reasons, we perform a systematic multi‐model comparison of centennial‐scale AMOC variability in pre‐industrial control simulations of state‐of‐the‐art global climate models. Six out of nine models in this study exhibit a statistically significant mode of centennial‐scale AMOC variability. Our results show that freshwater exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic provide a plausible driving mechanism in a subset of models, and that AMOC variability can be amplified by ocean–sea ice feedbacks in the Labrador Sea. The amplifying mechanism is linked to sea ice cover biases, which could provide an observational constraint for centennial‐scale AMOC variability.

Nonstationarity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's Fingerprint on Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) has been increasing since industrialization with rising greenhouse gases. However, a warming hole exists in the North Atlantic where SST has cooled by 0.4 K/century during 1900–2017. It has been argued that this cooling is due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and subpolar North Atlantic SST has thus been utilized to estimate AMOC variability. We assess the robustness of subpolar North Atlantic SST as a proxy for AMOC strength under historical forcing, abrupt quadrupling of CO2, and a medium future emissions pathway, finding that AMOC's fingerprint on SST depends upon forcing scenarios. AMOC is important in warming hole development during significant warming periods, although SST may introduce uncertainties for AMOC reconstruction in stabilized regimes due to diverse forcing mechanisms and decadal variability. Our results caution against using SST alone as a proxy for AMOC variability—both on paleoclimatic and contemporary time scales.

A Comparison of Diagnostics for AMOC Heat Transport Applied to the CESM Large Ensemble

AbstractAtlantic time‐mean heat transport is northward at all latitudes and exhibits strong multidecadal variability between about 30°N and 55°N. Atlantic heat transport variability influences many aspects of the climate system, including regional surface temperatures, subpolar heat content, Arctic sea‐ice concentration and tropical precipitation patterns. Atlantic heat transport and heat transport variability are commonly partitioned into two components: the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the heat transport by the gyres. In this paper we compare four different methods for performing this partition, and we apply these methods to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble at 34°N, 26°N and 5°S. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The four methods all give significantly different estimates for the proportion of the time‐mean heat transport performed by AMOC. One of these methods is a new physically‐motivated method based on the pathway of the northward‐flowing part of AMOC. This paper presents a preliminary version of our method that works only when the AMOC follows the western boundary of the basin. All the methods agree that at 26°N, 80%–100% of heat transport variability at 2–10 years timescales is performed by AMOC, but there is more disagreement between methods in attributing multidecadal variability, with some methods showing a compensation between the AMOC and gyre heat transport variability.

Legacies of millennial-scale climate oscillations in contemporary biodiversity in eastern North America.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010

The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. While anthropogenic radiative forcing causes an acceleration of global mean SLR, regional changes in the rate of SLR are strongly influenced by internal variability. Here we use observations and climate models to show that the rapid increase in the rate of SLR along the U.S. Southeast Coast after 2010 is due in part to multidecadal buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variations, along with heat transport convergence from wind-driven ocean circulation changes. We show that an initialized decadal prediction system can provide skillful regional SLR predictions induced by AMOC variations 5 years in advance, while wind-driven sea level variations are predictable 2 years in advance. Our results suggest that the rate of coastal SLR and its associated flooding risk along the U.S. southeastern seaboard are potentially predictable on multiyear timescales.

The Irminger Gyre as a Key Driver of the Subpolar North Atlantic Overturning

AbstractThe lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the equatorward flow of dense waters formed through the cooling and freshening of the poleward‐flowing upper limb. In the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA), upper limb variability is primarily set by the North Atlantic Current, whereas lower limb variability is less well understood. Using observations from a SPNA mooring array, we show that variability of the AMOC's lower limb is connected to poleward flow in the interior Irminger Sea. We identify this poleward flow as the northward branch of the Irminger Gyre (IG), accounting for 55% of the AMOC's lower limb variability. Over 2014–2018, wind stress curl fluctuations over the Labrador and Irminger Seas drive this IG and AMOC variability. On longer (>annual) timescales, however, an increasing trend in the thickness of intermediate water, from 2014 to 2020, within the Irminger Sea coincides with a decreasing trend in IG strength.

Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports, which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models. Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations. In this work, with a low-resolution earth system model, the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse. Through a new optimization strategy, the extra freshwater flux (FWF) parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC's variability. The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC. The results show that, under an abrupt 4×CO2 forcing in millennial simulations, the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly. However, during the parameter adjustment process, the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC, according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.

Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.

Impact of industrial versus biomass burning aerosols on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The ocean’s major circulation system, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is slowing down. Such weakening is consistent with warming associated with increasing greenhouse gases, as well as with recent decreases in industrial aerosol pollution. The impact of biomass burning aerosols on the AMOC, however, remains unexplored. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble to quantify the impact of both aerosol types on the AMOC. Despite relatively small changes in North Atlantic biomass burning aerosols, significant AMOC evolution occurs, including weakening from 1920 to ~1970 followed by AMOC strengthening. These changes are largely out of phase relative to the corresponding AMOC evolution under industrial aerosols. AMOC responses are initiated by thermal changes in sea surface density flux due to altered shortwave radiation. An additional dynamical mechanism involving the North Atlantic sea-level pressure gradient is important under biomass-burning aerosols. AMOC-induced ocean salinity flux convergence acts as a positive feedback. Our results show that biomass-burning aerosols reinforce early 20th-century AMOC weakening associated with greenhouse gases and also partially mute industrial aerosol impacts on the AMOC. Recent increases in wildfires suggest biomass-burning aerosols may be an important driver of future AMOC variability.

On the links between sea level and temperature variations in the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

AbstractRecent studies found that on long time scales there are often unexplained opposite trends in sea level variability between the upper and lower Chesapeake Bay (CB). Therefore, daily sea level and temperature records were analyzed in two locations, Norfolk in the southern CB and Baltimore in the northern CB; surface currents from Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) near the mouth of CB were also analyzed to examine connections between the CB and the Atlantic Ocean. The observations in the bay were compared with daily Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) observations during 2005–2021. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis was used to show that variations of sea level and temperature in the upper and lower CB are positively correlated with each other for short time scales of months to few years, but anticorrelated on low frequency modes representing decadal variability and long-term nonlinear trends. The long-term CB modes seem to be linked with AMOC variability through variations in the Gulf Stream and the wind-driven Ekman transports over the North Atlantic Ocean. AMOC variability correlates more strongly with variability in the southern CB near the mouth of the bay, where surface currents indicate potential links with AMOC variability. For example, when AMOC and the Gulf Stream were especially weak during 2009–2010, sea level in the southern bay was abnormally high, temperatures were colder than normal and outflow through the mouth of CB was especially high. Sea level in the upper bay responded to this change only 1–2 years later, which partly explains phase differences within the bay. A persistent trend of 0.22 cm/s per year of increased outflow from the CB, may be a sign of a climate-related trend associated with combination of weakening AMOC and increased precipitation and river discharge into the CB.

Large diversity in AMOC internal variability across NEMO-based climate models

We characterise, and explore the drivers of, differences in the internal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) across five NEMO-based CMIP6 class climate models. While the variability of AMOC variability is dominated by its lower dense limb in all models, there is large diversity in the timescale, multidecadal variability, and latitudinal coherence of AMOC across models. In particular, the UK models have much weaker AMOC multidecadal variability and latitudinal coherence. The model diversity is associated with differences in salinity-governed surface density variations which drive high-density water mass transformation (WMT) in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas (GIN) and the Arctic. Specifically, GIN Seas WMT shows large multidecadal variability which has a major impact on AMOC variability in non-UK models. In contrast, the smaller variability in GIN Seas WMT in the UK models has limited impact on the lower latitude AMOC via the Denmark strait overflow mass transport. This leads to a latitudinally less coherent and weaker multidecadal variability of the AMOC lower limb. Such differences between UK and non-UK models are related to differences in model mean states and densification processes in the Arctic and GIN Seas. Consequently, we recommend further in-depth studies to better understand and constrain processes driving salinity changes in the Arctic and GIN Seas for more reliable representation of the AMOC in climate models.

An ARGO and XBT Observing System for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Meridional Heat Transport (AXMOC) at 22.5°S

AbstractChanges in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated Meridional Heat Transport (MHT) can affect climate and weather patterns, regional sea levels, and ecosystems. Direct observations of the AMOC are still limited, particularly in the South Atlantic. This study establishes a cost‐effective trans‐basin section to estimate for the first time the AMOC and MHT at 22.5°S, using only sustained ocean observations. For this, an optimal mapping method that minimizes the difference between surface in situ dynamic height and satellite altimetry was developed to retrieve monthly temperature and salinity profiles from Argo and XBT data along the 22.5°S section. The mean states, as well as the interannual and seasonal changes of the obtained AMOC and MHT were compared with other products. The mean AMOC and MHT for 22.5°S are 16.3 ± 3.2 Sv and 0.7 ± 0.2 PW, respectively, showing stronger transports during austral fall/winter and weaker in spring. The high‐density XBT data available at the western boundary were vital for capturing the highly variable Brazil Current (BC), whose mean and variability was improved compared to other products. At 22.5°S, the North Atlantic Deep Water is divided into two cores that flow along both the western and the eastern boundaries near 2,500 m depth. Our results (a) suggest a greater influence of the western boundary current system on the AMOC variability at 22.5°S, (b) highlight the importance of high‐density in situ data for AMOC estimates, and (c) contribute to a better understanding of the AMOC and MHT variability in the South Atlantic.

Long-term variability of the western tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature driven by greenhouse gases and AMOC

The long-term orbital-scale sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropics is thought to be mainly driven by greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. However, few studies have investigated the drivers of such variability in the tropical Atlantic. Given the evidence of orbital-scale changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength, one can hypothesize that AMOC variability also modulates the long-term tropical Atlantic SST through the bipolar seesaw mechanism. According to this mechanism, under weak [strong] AMOC conditions, the Southern Hemisphere is expected to warm up [cool down], while the Northern Hemisphere cools down [warms up]. Here, we investigate the long-term SST variability of the western tropical South Atlantic (WTSA), i.e., along the main pathway of the upper AMOC branch towards the equator, using a new 300 thousand years (kyr)-long Mg/Ca-based SST record. Our SST record shows glacial-interglacial variability superimposed by four remarkable long-term warm events during the three recorded glacial periods. These glacial warm events occurred between ca. 280–260, 160–143, 75–60, and 40–24 ka before present. Our results support the notion that atmospheric GHG plays a leading role in modulating the glacial-interglacial SST variability in the WTSA. However, it does not explain the occurrence of glacial warm events. Our study supports that the glacial warm events were caused by an orbital-scale bipolar seesaw mechanism operating in the Atlantic due to changes in the AMOC strength. These warm events may have been amplified by annual mean insolation driven by obliquity. Finally, we suggest that the long-term bipolar seesaw warmed the western tropical (South) Atlantic during the MIS 5/4 transition when the Earth's climate was cooling off.

Skillful multiyear to decadal predictions of sea level in the North Atlantic Ocean and U.S. East Coast

Long-term sea-level rise and multiyear to decadal sea level variations pose substantial risks for flooding and erosion in coastal communities. Here we use observations and climate model predictions to show that sea level variations along the U.S. East Coast are skillfully predictable 3 to 10 years in advance. The most predictable component of sea level is a basin scale upward trend, predictable a decade in advance and primarily a response to increasing greenhouse gases. Significant additional predictability comes from multidecadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While perfect model simulations show AMOC-related sea level predictability of 5-7 years, model biases and initialization uncertainties reduce the realized predictive skill to 3-5 years, depending on location. Overall, greenhouse gas warming and predictable AMOC variations lead to multiyear to decadal prediction skill for sea level along the U.S. East Coast. Such skill could have significant societal benefit for planning and adaptation.

Labrador sea water spreading and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

In 1982, Talley and McCartney used the low potential vorticity signature of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) to make the first North Atlantic maps of its properties. Forty years later, our understanding of LSW variability, spreading time scales and importance has deepened. In this review and synthesis article, I showcase recent observational advances in our understanding of how LSW spreads from its formation regions into the Deep Western Boundary Current and southward into the subtropical North Atlantic. I reconcile the fact that decadal variability in LSW formation is reflected in the Deep Western Boundary Current with the fact that LSW formation does not control subpolar overturning strength and discuss hypothesized connections between LSW spreading and decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability. Ultimately, LSW spreading is of fundamental interest because it is a significant pathway for dissolved gasses such as oxygen and carbon dioxide into the deep ocean. We should hence prioritize adding dissolved gas measurements to standard hydrographic and circulation observations, particularly at targeted western boundary locations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

From theory to RAPID AMOC observations: a personal voyage of discovery.

I review the history of ideas that have led to the establishment of the RAPID monitoring system for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5° N. This history is closely connected to important events in my personal career. Starting from early and largely unsuccessful attempts at formulating a dynamically consistent force balance for the AMOC, I made theoretical progress by separately predicting the density at the eastern and western boundaries and by invoking exact geostrophic balance throughout, including the western boundary current. A remarkable confluence of individuals and ideas then enabled the establishment of the RAPID array, at its core based on monitoring boundary densities and on geostrophy. The RAPID results, such as the surprisingly large sub-seasonal variability, have encouraged AMOC monitoring approaches at other latitudes. I finish by pointing at two theoretical concepts-first, acknowledging the difference between convective mixing and sinking and, second, considering the advective rather than wave propagation of density perturbations in the deep western boundary current-that, together with continued observations and newly available global coupled simulations at very high resolution, should substantially improve our understanding of the causes of AMOC variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOC connection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The rTIO index yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to the AMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-based AMOC proxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes of rTIO temperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that the AMOC proxy index lags simulated mid-latitude AMOC variations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connecting AMOC variations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internal rTIO variations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor of AMOC changes with important implications for AMOC dynamics and predictability.

Heterogenous westerly shifts linked to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdowns

The mid-latitude westerly winds are a major component of the global atmospheric circulation and a dominant factor in mid-latitude climate change. Understanding their behaviour and the controls on their variations under different climate background states is essential for assessing climate system feedback. Here we present a midlatitude North Pacific Ocean aeolian dust record from core NP02 through the last glacial cycle, during which extreme and abrupt climatic oscillations occurred. We find low dust contents during Heinrich stadials 2, 4, 5, and 5a that we attribute using proxy-model comparison to westerly transportation path changes associated with Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) reductions, which caused North Atlantic cooling and modified the westerly wave train pattern, particularly over the Tibetan Plateau. The finding that AMOC variations had significant impacts on the westerlies half-way around the world, through ocean-atmosphere interactions, improves understanding of large-scale westerly sensitivity to different climate states.

Mechanism on the Short-Term Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Subtropical and Tropical Regions

Abstract The continuous, moored observation revealed significant variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The cause of such AMOC variability is an extensively studied subject. This study focuses on the short-term variability, which ranges up to seasonal and interannual time scales. A mechanism is proposed from the perspective of ocean water redistribution by layers. By offering explanations for four phenomena of AMOC variability in the subtropical and tropical oceans (seasonality, meridional coherence, layered-transport compensation as observed at 26.5°N, and the 2009/10 downturn that occurred at 26.5°N), this mechanism suggests that the short-term AMOC variabilities in the entire subtropical and tropical regions are governed by a basinwide adiabatic water redistribution process, or the so-called sloshing dynamics, rather than diapycnal processes. Significance Statement The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a key component in the global climate system due to its immense power in redistributing heat meridionally, which contributes to the hospitable climate of the United Kingdom and western Europe. Therefore, any changes in AMOC can have significant impacts on both global and local climate variability. Here I propose a mechanism to explain the short-term (up to interannual) AMOC variability in the subtropical and tropical regions from the perspective of ocean water redistribution. This mechanism suggests that the short-term variability of AMOC strength is dominated by an adiabatic process, and thus, its large-amplitude variation is mostly a reversible process. In other words, AMOC may be more resilient to short-term variability than previously believed, and it could recover autonomously from the abrupt changes.

Deglacial Temperature and Carbonate Saturation State Variability in the Tropical Atlantic at Antarctic Intermediate Water Depths

AbstractVariations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) redistribute heat and nutrients, causing pronounced anomalies of temperature and nutrient concentrations in the subsurface ocean. However, exactly how millennial‐scale deglacial AMOC variability influenced the subsurface is debated, and the role of other deglacial forcings of subsurface temperature change is unclear. Here, we present a new deglacial temperature reconstruction, which, with published records, helps assess competing hypotheses for deglacial warming in the upper tropical North Atlantic. Our record provides new evidence of regional subsurface warming in the western tropical North Atlantic within the core of modern Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), an early deglacial interval of iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic. Our results are consistent with model simulations that suggest subsurface heat accumulates in the northern high‐latitude convection regions and along the upper AMOC return path when the AMOC weakens, and with warming due to rising greenhouse gases. Warming of AAIW may have also contributed to warming in the tropics at modern AAIW depths during late HS1. Nutrient and reconstructions from the same site suggest a link between AMOC intensity and the northward extent of AAIW in the northern tropics across the deglaciation and on millennial time scales. However, the timing of the initial deglacial increase in AAIW to the northern tropics is ambiguous. Deglacial trends and variability of in the upper North Atlantic have likely biased temperature reconstructions based on the elemental composition of calcitic benthic foraminifera.