A Comparison of Diagnostics for AMOC Heat Transport Applied to the CESM Large Ensemble

Abstract

AbstractAtlantic time‐mean heat transport is northward at all latitudes and exhibits strong multidecadal variability between about 30°N and 55°N. Atlantic heat transport variability influences many aspects of the climate system, including regional surface temperatures, subpolar heat content, Arctic sea‐ice concentration and tropical precipitation patterns. Atlantic heat transport and heat transport variability are commonly partitioned into two components: the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the heat transport by the gyres. In this paper we compare four different methods for performing this partition, and we apply these methods to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble at 34°N, 26°N and 5°S. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each method. The four methods all give significantly different estimates for the proportion of the time‐mean heat transport performed by AMOC. One of these methods is a new physically‐motivated method based on the pathway of the northward‐flowing part of AMOC. This paper presents a preliminary version of our method that works only when the AMOC follows the western boundary of the basin. All the methods agree that at 26°N, 80%–100% of heat transport variability at 2–10 years timescales is performed by AMOC, but there is more disagreement between methods in attributing multidecadal variability, with some methods showing a compensation between the AMOC and gyre heat transport variability.