Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Strength Research Articles

Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability. Increasing the noise in simple salt-advection models can change the apparent AMOC tipping threshold. However, it's not clear if `present-day' variability is strong enough to induce a collapse.
Here, we investigate how internal variability affects the likelihood of AMOC collapse. We examine internal variability of basin-scale salinities and temperatures in four CMIP6 pre-industrial simulations. We fit this to an empirical, process-based AMOC box model, and
find that noise-induced AMOC collapse (defined as a decade in which the mean AMOC strength falls below $5 \ \rm{Sv}$) is unlikely, however, if the AMOC is pushed closer to a bifurcation point due to external climate forcing, noise-induced tipping becomes more likely.
Surprisingly, we find a case where forcing temporarily overshoots a stability threshold but noise decreases the probability of collapse. Accurately modelling internal decadal variability is essential for understanding the increased uncertainty in AMOC projections.

Nonstationarity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's Fingerprint on Sea Surface Temperature

AbstractSea surface temperature (SST) has been increasing since industrialization with rising greenhouse gases. However, a warming hole exists in the North Atlantic where SST has cooled by 0.4 K/century during 1900–2017. It has been argued that this cooling is due to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and subpolar North Atlantic SST has thus been utilized to estimate AMOC variability. We assess the robustness of subpolar North Atlantic SST as a proxy for AMOC strength under historical forcing, abrupt quadrupling of CO2, and a medium future emissions pathway, finding that AMOC's fingerprint on SST depends upon forcing scenarios. AMOC is important in warming hole development during significant warming periods, although SST may introduce uncertainties for AMOC reconstruction in stabilized regimes due to diverse forcing mechanisms and decadal variability. Our results caution against using SST alone as a proxy for AMOC variability—both on paleoclimatic and contemporary time scales.

The Impact of CO2 and Climate State on Whether Dansgaard–Oeschger Type Oscillations Occur in Climate Models

AbstractGreenland ice core records feature Dansgaard–Oeschger (D‐O) events, which are abrupt warming episodes followed by gradual cooling during ice age climate. The three climate models used in this study (CCSM4, MPI‐ESM, and HadCM3) show spontaneous self‐sustained D‐O‐like oscillations (albeit with differences in amplitude, duration, and shape) in a remarkably similar, narrow window of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, roughly 185–230 ppm. This range matches atmospheric CO2 during Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3: between 27.8 and 59.4 thousand of years BP, hereafter ka), a period when D‐O events were most frequent. Insights from the three climate models point to North Atlantic (NA) sea‐ice coverage as a key ingredient behind D‐O type oscillations, which acts as a “tipping element.” Other climate state properties such as Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength, global mean temperature and salinity gradient in the Atlantic Ocean do not determine whether D‐O type behavior can occur in all three models.

New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception

Abstract. It has been previously proposed that glacial inception represents a bifurcation transition between interglacial and glacial states and is governed by the nonlinear dynamics of the climate–cryosphere system. To trigger glacial inception, the orbital forcing (defined as the maximum of summer insolation at 65° N and determined by Earth’s orbital parameters) must be lower than a critical level, which depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. While paleoclimatic data do not provide a strong constraint on the dependence between CO2 and critical insolation, its accurate estimation is of fundamental importance for predicting future glaciations and the effect that anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them. In this study, we use the novel Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X with interactive ice sheets to produce a new estimation of the critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception. We perform a series of experiments in which different combinations of orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 concentration are maintained constant in time. We analyze for which combinations of orbital forcing and CO2 glacial inception occurs and trace the critical relationship between them, separating conditions under which glacial inception is possible from those where glacial inception is not materialized. We also provide a theoretical foundation for the proposed critical insolation–CO2 relation. We find that the use of the maximum summer insolation at 65° N as a single metric for orbital forcing is adequate for tracing the glacial inception bifurcation. Moreover, we find that the temporal and spatial patterns of ice sheet growth during glacial inception are not always the same but depend on the critical insolation and CO2 level. The experiments evidence the fact that during glacial inception, ice sheets grow mostly in North America, and only under low CO2 conditions are ice sheets also formed over Scandinavia. The latter is associated with a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for low CO2. We find that the strength of AMOC also affects the rate of ice sheet growth during glacial inception.

Controls on the Strength and Structure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Climate Models

AbstractState‐of‐the‐art climate models simulate a large spread in the mean‐state Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with strengths varying between 12 and 25 Sv. Here, we introduce a framework for understanding this spread by assessing the balance between the thermal‐wind expression and surface water mass transformation in the North Atlantic. The intermodel spread in the mean‐state AMOC strength is shown to be related to the overturning scale depth: climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have a stronger AMOC. We present a physically motivated scaling relationship that links intermodel variations in the scale depth to surface buoyancy fluxes and stratification in the North Atlantic, and thus connects North Atlantic surface processes to the interior overturning circulation. Climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have stronger surface buoyancy loss and weaker stratification in the North Atlantic. These results offer a framework for reducing mean‐state AMOC biases in climate models.

Impacts and State‐Dependence of AMOC Weakening in a Warming Climate

AbstractAll climate models project a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, the climate impacts of the AMOC decline alone cannot be isolated from other drivers of climate change using existing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. To address this issue, we conduct idealized experiments using the EC‐Earth3 climate model. We compare an abrupt 4×CO2 simulation with the same experiment, except we artificially fix the AMOC strength at preindustrial levels. With this design, we can formally attribute differences in climate change impacts between these two experiments to the AMOC decline. In addition, we quantify the state‐dependence of AMOC impacts by comparing the aforementioned experiments with a preindustrial simulation in which we artificially reduce the AMOC strength. Our findings demonstrate that AMOC decline impacts are state‐dependent, thus understanding AMOC impacts on future climate change requires targeted model experiments.

The North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics during the past 21,000 years

Numerous studies have suggested that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and Arctic sea ice impact the polar and global climate. Here, we use a fully linked atmosphere-ocean-sea ice Earth system model to investigate the North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics over the last 21 thousand years before the present (ka). We found that the SPG strength, net ocean surface heat flux, and mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic deep convection sites declined during the Heinrich 1 (H1; ∼19–17 ka) and Younger Dryas (YD; ∼12.9–11.3 ka) cold events. Consequently, the deep convection and AMOC strength declined, reducing the northward meridional heat transport and causing the expansion of Atlantic sea ice coverage. We also found that the North Atlantic subpolar net ocean surface heat flux varied coherently with AMOC strength throughout the past 21 ka. Subsequently, we observed a sea ice-capping mechanism wherein an increase (decrease) in Atlantic sea ice coverage during H1/YD (Bølling-Allerød (BA; ∼17–14.35 ka)) reduces (increases) net ocean surface heat flux and deep convection, thereby influencing the AMOC strength. Meanwhile, the SPG and AMOC strengths have been in-phase throughout the past 21 ka, except during the abrupt termination and input of freshwater flux during the BA and Meltwater Pulse 1 A (∼14.4–13.9 ka) events, respectively. In conclusion, our study suggests that a sudden shift in freshwater discharge into the subpolar North Atlantic may disturb the polar ocean dynamics.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Influence on the Annual Mean Intertropical Convergence Zone Location in the Miocene

AbstractThe Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has an annual mean location north of the equator today. The factors determining this location and the evolution to its modern state are actively debated. Here we investigate how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) influences the ITCZ during the early‐to‐middle Miocene. By conducting a sensitivity study with an open Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateway, we show that North Atlantic Deep‐Water formation strengthens the AMOC, in alignment with Miocene North Atlantic ventilation proxies. A vigorous AMOC increases northward Atlantic Ocean heat transport and cross‐equatorial atmospheric energy transport shifts southwards to compensate, pushing the ITCZ northwards. Our study supports AMOC development as a strong contributor to the ITCZ's northern location today. Existing proxy‐based interpretations of ITCZ history are too sparse to strongly confirm these results. We predict a strong in‐phase relationship between AMOC strength and ITCZ's northward location, which should be testable in high resolution paleoclimate records.

A multi-model assessment of the early last deglaciation (PMIP4 LDv1): a meltwater perspective

Abstract. The last deglaciation (∼20–11 ka BP) is a period of a major, long-term climate transition from a glacial to interglacial state that features multiple centennial- to decadal-scale abrupt climate variations whose root cause is still not fully understood. To better understand this time period, the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) has provided a framework for an internationally coordinated endeavour in simulating the last deglaciation whilst encompassing a broad range of models. Here, we present a multi-model intercomparison of 17 transient simulations of the early part of the last deglaciation (∼20–15 ka BP) from nine different climate models spanning a range of model complexities and uncertain boundary conditions and forcings. The numerous simulations available provide the opportunity to better understand the chain of events and mechanisms of climate changes between 20 and 15 ka BP and our collective ability to simulate them. We conclude that the amount of freshwater forcing and whether it follows the ice sheet reconstruction or induces an inferred Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) history, heavily impacts the deglacial climate evolution for each simulation rather than differences in the model physics. The course of the deglaciation is consistent between simulations except when the freshwater forcing is above 0.1 Sv – at least 70 % of the simulations agree that there is warming by 15 ka BP in most places excluding the location of meltwater input. For simulations with freshwater forcings that exceed 0.1 Sv from 18 ka BP, warming is delayed in the North Atlantic and surface air temperature correlations with AMOC strength are much higher. However, we find that the state of the AMOC coming out of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) also plays a key role in the AMOC sensitivity to model forcings. In addition, we show that the response of each model to the chosen meltwater scenario depends largely on the sensitivity of the model to the freshwater forcing and other aspects of the experimental design (e.g. CO2 forcing or ice sheet reconstruction). The results provide insight into the ability of our models to simulate the first part of the deglaciation and how choices between uncertain boundary conditions and forcings, with a focus on freshwater fluxes, can impact model outputs. We can use these findings as helpful insight in the design of future simulations of this time period.

Prediction of slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in coupled model simulations

In coupled perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiments or for development of a single coupled global climate model (GCM) in general, models can exhibit a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that can result in unrealistically reduced transport of heat and other tracers. Here we propose a method that researchers running PPE experiments can apply to their own PPE to diagnose what controls the AMOC strength in their model and make predictions thereof. As an example, using data from a 25-member coupled PPE experiment performed with HadGEM3-GC3.05, we found four predictors based on surface heat and freshwater fluxes in four critical regions from the initial decade of the spinup phase that could accurately predict the AMOC transport in the later stage of the experiment. The method, to our knowledge, is novel in that it separates the effects of the drivers of AMOC change from the effects of the changed AMOC. The identified drivers are shown to be physically credible in that the PPE members exhibiting AMOC weakening possess some combination of the following characteristics: warmer ocean in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, fresher Arctic and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans and larger runoff from the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers. These characteristics were further traced to regional responses in atmosphere-only experiments. This study suggests promising potential for early stopping rules for parameter perturbations that could end up with an unrealistically weak AMOC, saving valuable computational resources. Some of the four drivers are likely to be relevant to other climate models so this study is of interest to model developers who do not have a PPE.

Revisiting the multidecadal variability of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and climate

The World Ocean’s surface, particularly in the North Atlantic, has been heating up for decades. There was concern that the thermohaline circulation and essential climate variables, such as the temperature and salinity of seawater, could undergo substantial changes in response to this surface warming. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has changed noticeably over the last centennial and possibly slowed down in recent decades. Therefore, concerns about the future of the North Atlantic Ocean climate are warranted. The key to understanding the North Atlantic current climate trajectory is to identify how the decadal climate responds to ongoing surface warming. This issue is addressed using in-situ data from the World Ocean Atlas covering 1955-1964 to 2005-2017 and from the SODA reanalysis project for the most recent decades of 1980-2019 as fingerprints of the North Atlantic three-dimensional circulation and AMOC’s dynamics. It is shown that although the entire North Atlantic is systematically warming, the climate trajectories in different sub-regions of the North Atlantic reveal radically different characteristics of regional decadal variability. There is also a slowdown of the thermohaline geostrophic circulation everywhere in the North Atlantic during the most recent decade. The warming trends in the subpolar North Atlantic lag behind the subtropical gyre and Nordic Seas warming by at least a decade. The climate and circulation in the North Atlantic remained robust from 1955-1994, with the last two decades (1995-2017) marked by a noticeable reduction in AMOC strength, which may be closely linked to changes in the geometry and strength of the Gulf Stream system.

Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC

There is a consensus that a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decreases mean surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, both over the ocean and the continents. However, the impacts of a reduced AMOC on cold extreme events have not yet been examined. We analyse the impacts of a reduced AMOC strength on extreme cold events over Europe using targeted sensitivity experiments with the EC-Earth3 climate model. Starting from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation in which the AMOC was artificially reduced, a set of atmosphere-only integrations with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea-ice cover was conducted to evaluate the effects of weakly and strongly reduced AMOC strength. Despite overall cooling, reduced AMOC leads to fewer winter cold spells in Europe. We find that the weakened AMOC intensifies near-surface meridional gradient temperature in the North Atlantic and Europe, thus providing the energy to boost the jet stream. A stronger jet stream leads to less atmospheric blocking, reducing the frequency of cold spells over Europe. Although limited to the output of one model, our results indicate that a reduced AMOC strength may play a role in shaping future climate change cold spells by modulating the strength of the jet stream and the frequency of atmospheric blocking.

Long-term variability of the western tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature driven by greenhouse gases and AMOC

The long-term orbital-scale sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropics is thought to be mainly driven by greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. However, few studies have investigated the drivers of such variability in the tropical Atlantic. Given the evidence of orbital-scale changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength, one can hypothesize that AMOC variability also modulates the long-term tropical Atlantic SST through the bipolar seesaw mechanism. According to this mechanism, under weak [strong] AMOC conditions, the Southern Hemisphere is expected to warm up [cool down], while the Northern Hemisphere cools down [warms up]. Here, we investigate the long-term SST variability of the western tropical South Atlantic (WTSA), i.e., along the main pathway of the upper AMOC branch towards the equator, using a new 300 thousand years (kyr)-long Mg/Ca-based SST record. Our SST record shows glacial-interglacial variability superimposed by four remarkable long-term warm events during the three recorded glacial periods. These glacial warm events occurred between ca. 280–260, 160–143, 75–60, and 40–24 ka before present. Our results support the notion that atmospheric GHG plays a leading role in modulating the glacial-interglacial SST variability in the WTSA. However, it does not explain the occurrence of glacial warm events. Our study supports that the glacial warm events were caused by an orbital-scale bipolar seesaw mechanism operating in the Atlantic due to changes in the AMOC strength. These warm events may have been amplified by annual mean insolation driven by obliquity. Finally, we suggest that the long-term bipolar seesaw warmed the western tropical (South) Atlantic during the MIS 5/4 transition when the Earth's climate was cooling off.

Nonlinear Response of Global Monsoon Precipitation to Atlantic Overturning Strength Variations During Marine Isotope Stage 3

AbstractMonsoon rainfall proxy records show clear millennial variations corresponding to abrupt climate events in Greenland ice cores during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). The occurrence of these abrupt climate changes is associated with Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength variations which greatly impact the global oceanic energy transport. Hence, the AMOC most likely plays a key role in modulating the global monsoon rainfall at millennial time scale. No modeling work has hitherto investigated the global monsoon system response to AMOC changes under a MIS3 background climate. Using the coupled climate model CCSM3, we simulated MIS3 climate using full 38 ka before present boundary conditions and performed a set of freshwater hosing/extraction experiments. We show not only agreement between modeling results and proxies of monsoon rainfall within the global monsoon domain but also highlight a nonlinear relationship between AMOC strength and annual mean global monsoon precipitation related to oceanic heat transport constraints. During MIS3, a weakened AMOC induces a decrease in annual mean global monsoon rainfall dominated by the northern hemisphere, whereas southern hemisphere monsoon rainfall increases. Above about 16 Sverdrups a further strengthening of the AMOC has no significant impact on hemispheric and global monsoon domain annual mean rainfall. The seasonal monsoon rainfall shows the same nonlinear response like annual mean both hemispherically and globally.

Towards two decades of Atlantic Ocean mass and heat transports at 26.5° N.

Continuous measurements of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and meridional ocean heat transport at 26.5° N began in April 2004 and are currently available through December 2020. Approximately 90% of the total meridional heat transport (MHT) at 26.5° N is carried by the zonally averaged overturning circulation, and an even larger fraction of the heat transport variability (approx. 95%) is explained by the variability of the zonally averaged overturning. A physically based separation of the heat transport into large-scale AMOC, gyre and shallow wind-driven overturning components remains challenging and requires new investigations and approaches. We review the major interannual changes in the AMOC and MHT that have occurred over the nearly two decades of available observations and their documented impacts on North Atlantic heat content. Changes in the flow-weighted temperature of the Florida Current (Gulf Stream) over the past two decades are now taken into account in the estimates of MHT, and have led to an increased heat transport relative to the AMOC strength in recent years. Estimates of the MHT at 26.5° N from coupled models and various surface flux datasets still tend to show low biases relative to the observations, but indirect estimates based on residual methods (top of atmosphere net radiative flux minus atmospheric energy divergence) have shown recent promise in reproducing the heat transport and its interannual variability. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Stochastic Bifurcation of the North Atlantic Circulation under a Midrange Future Climate Scenario with the NASA-GISS ModelE

Abstract A 10-member ensemble simulation with the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2–4.5 extended scenario. At 26°N, the bifurcation leads to 8 strong AMOC and 2 much weaker AMOC states, while at 48°N, it leads to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 nearly AMOC-off states, the latter lasting approximately 800 years. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated tipping points in AMOC through hosing experiments, i.e., prescribing sufficient freshwater inputs in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability (noise-induced bifurcation) associated with sea ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea after a slowing of the greenhouse gas forcing. While the AMOC strength follows the near shutdown of the Labrador Sea deep convection initially, the Irminger Sea salinity and deep mixing determine the timing of the AMOC recovery or near collapse at 48°N, which varies widely across the ensemble members. Other feedbacks such as ice-albedo, ice-evaporation, E − P, and the overturning salt-advection feedback play a secondary role that may enhance or reduce the primary mechanism which is ice melt. We believe this is the first time that a coupled climate model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble and might imply that there is a chance for significant and prolonged AMOC slow down due to internal variability of the system. Significance Statement We believe this is the first time that divergent AMOC behavior has been reported for an ensemble of Earth system model simulations using identical climate forcing and no prescribed freshwater perturbations. This response is a manifestation of noise-induced bifurcation, enhanced by feedbacks, revealing the role stochastic (or intrinsic) variability may play in AMOC stability.

Geostrophic and Mesoscale Eddy Contributions to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline under CO2 Increase in the GFDL CM2-O Model Suite

Abstract The pattern and magnitude of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration greatly differ across climate models in particular due to differences in the representation of oceanic processes. Here, we investigate the response of the AMOC to an idealized climate change scenario, along with the drivers of this response, in the three configurations of a coupled climate model suite with varying resolutions in the ocean (1°, 0.25°, 0.10°). In response to the CO2 increase, the AMOC shows a reduction of similar magnitude in the low and high resolutions, while a muted response is found in the medium resolution. A decomposition of the AMOC into its geostrophic and residual components reveals that most of the AMOC reduction is due to a weakening of the geostrophic streamfunction driven by temperature anomalies, partly opposed by a strengthening of the geostrophic streamfunction driven by salinity anomalies. Changes in the AMOC due to the mesoscale eddy streamfunction contribute to 13% and 17% of the AMOC decline in the low and high resolutions, respectively, but induce very little change in the medium resolution. The similar response of the AMOC strength in the low and high resolutions hides important differences in the contribution and pattern of the geostrophic and eddy streamfunctions. The lack of sensitivity of the medium resolution to the CO2 forcing is due to a weak connection between the deep water formation regions in the northern subpolar gyre and the Deep Western Boundary Current. Significance Statement The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that contributes to shaping the climate at regional and global scales, notably through the transport of heat from the low to the high latitudes. A major slowdown of the AMOC over the twenty-first century is predicted by current climate models in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Yet, the magnitude and timing of this slowdown are uncertain. The purpose of this study is to investigate the expected weakening of the AMOC using state-of-the-art numerical climate models that include higher resolutions than typically used in climate change assessments. Our results provide insights into the mechanisms driving the weakening of the AMOC and into differences arising from model resolutions.

Mechanism on the Short-Term Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Subtropical and Tropical Regions

Abstract The continuous, moored observation revealed significant variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The cause of such AMOC variability is an extensively studied subject. This study focuses on the short-term variability, which ranges up to seasonal and interannual time scales. A mechanism is proposed from the perspective of ocean water redistribution by layers. By offering explanations for four phenomena of AMOC variability in the subtropical and tropical oceans (seasonality, meridional coherence, layered-transport compensation as observed at 26.5°N, and the 2009/10 downturn that occurred at 26.5°N), this mechanism suggests that the short-term AMOC variabilities in the entire subtropical and tropical regions are governed by a basinwide adiabatic water redistribution process, or the so-called sloshing dynamics, rather than diapycnal processes. Significance Statement The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a key component in the global climate system due to its immense power in redistributing heat meridionally, which contributes to the hospitable climate of the United Kingdom and western Europe. Therefore, any changes in AMOC can have significant impacts on both global and local climate variability. Here I propose a mechanism to explain the short-term (up to interannual) AMOC variability in the subtropical and tropical regions from the perspective of ocean water redistribution. This mechanism suggests that the short-term variability of AMOC strength is dominated by an adiabatic process, and thus, its large-amplitude variation is mostly a reversible process. In other words, AMOC may be more resilient to short-term variability than previously believed, and it could recover autonomously from the abrupt changes.

Deconstructing Future AMOC Decline at 26.5°N

AbstractThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is frequently used to diagnose the state of the North Atlantic circulation, but as an integrated quantity the AMOC strength does not necessarily mirror changes in the individual circulation components. Here, we investigate future circulation changes in the subtropical North Atlantic (26.5°N) in CMIP6 models, diagnosing the relationship between the Gulf Stream, Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), gyre recirculation, and the integrated AMOC response. Under continued high emissions, we find a multi‐model mean Gulf Stream weakening of 29% (11.2 Sv) and a DWBC weakening of 47% (8.5 Sv) by the end of the century. However, 33% (3.7 Sv) of the Gulf Stream weakening is due to changes in wind stress and therefore not simply a compensating effect for reduced high‐latitude water mass transformation and a weaker DWBC. Our findings have implications for how we understand the dynamics of future North Atlantic circulation changes.

Effects of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea surface temperature and sea ice extent on the isotope–temperature slope at polar ice core sites

Abstract. Stable water isotopes in polar ice cores are widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations over several orbital climatic cycles. One way to calibrate the isotope–temperature relationship is to apply the present-day spatial relationship as a surrogate for the temporal one. However, this method leads to large uncertainties because several factors like the sea surface conditions or the origin and transport of water vapor influence the isotope–temperature temporal slope. In this study, we investigate how the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea ice extent, and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) affect these temporal slopes in Greenland and Antarctica for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) to preindustrial climate change. For that, we use the isotope-enabled atmosphere climate model ECHAM6-wiso, forced with a set of sea surface boundary condition datasets based on reconstructions (e.g., GLOMAP) or MIROC 4m simulation outputs. We found that the isotope–temperature temporal slopes in East Antarctic coastal areas are mainly controlled by the sea ice extent, while the sea surface temperature cooling affects the temporal slope values inland more. On the other hand, ECHAM6-wiso simulates the impact of sea ice extent on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Vostok sites through the contribution of water vapor from lower latitudes. Effects of sea surface boundary condition changes on modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes are variable in West Antarctica. This is partly due to the transport of water vapor from the Southern Ocean to this area that can dampen the influence of local temperature on the changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation and snow. In the Greenland area, the isotope–temperature temporal slopes are influenced by the sea surface temperatures near the coasts of the continent. The greater the LGM cooling off the coast of southeastern Greenland, the greater the transport of water vapor from the North Atlantic, and the larger the temporal slopes. The presence or absence of sea ice very near the coast has a large influence in Baffin Bay and the Greenland Sea and influences the slopes at some inland ice core stations. The extent of the sea ice far south slightly influences the temporal slopes in Greenland through the transport of more depleted water vapor from lower latitudes to this area. The seasonal variations of sea ice distribution, especially its retreat in summer, influence the isotopic composition of the water vapor in this region and the modeled isotope–temperature temporal slopes in the eastern part of Greenland. A stronger LGM AMOC decreases LGM-to-preindustrial isotopic anomalies in precipitation in Greenland, degrading the isotopic model–data agreement. The AMOC strength modifies the temporal slopes over inner Greenland slightly and by a little on the coasts along the Greenland Sea where the changes in surface temperature and sea ice distribution due to the AMOC strength mainly occur.