Temperature Assimilation Research Articles

A Comparison between 3DVAR and EnKF for Data Assimilation Effects on the Yellow Sea Fog Forecast

The data assimilation method to improve the sea fog forecast over the Yellow Sea is usually three-dimensional variational assimilation (3DVAR), whereas ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has not yet been applied to this weather phenomenon. In this paper, two sea fog cases over the Yellow sea, one spread widely and the other spread narrowly along the coastal area, are studied in detail by a series of numerical experiments with 3DVAR and EnKF based on the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the assimilation effect of EnKF outperforms that of 3DVAR: for the widespread-fog case, the probability of detection and equitable threat scores of the forecasted sea fog area are improved respectively by ~57.9% and ~55.5%; the sea fog formation of the other case completely mis-forecasted by 3DVAR was produced successfully by EnKF. These improvements of EnKF relative to 3DVAR benefit from its flow-dependent background error covariances, resulting in more realistic depiction of sea surface wind for the widespread-fog case and better moisture distribution for the other case in the initial conditions. More importantly, the correlation between temperature and humidity in the background error covariances of EnKF plays a vital role in the response of moisture to the assimilation of temperature, which leads to a great improvement in the initial moisture conditions for sea fog forecast. Extra sensitivity experiments of EnKF indicate that the forecast result is sensitive to ensemble inflation and localization factors, in particular, highly sensitive to the latter.

Assimilation of Sea Surface Temperature in a Global Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) uses different vertical coordinate choices in different regions. In HYCOM, the prognostic variables include not only the seawater temperature, salinity and current fields, but also the layer thickness. All prognostic variables are usually adjusted in the assimilation when multivariate data assimilation methods are used to assimilate sea surface temperature (SST). This paper investigates the effects of SST assimilation in a global HYCOM model using the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation multivariate assimilation method. Three assimilation experiments are conducted from 2006-08. In the first experiment, all model variables are adjusted during the assimilation process. In the other two experiments, the temperature alone is adjusted in the entire water column and in the mixed layer. For comparison, a control experiment without assimilation is also conducted. The three assimilation experiments yield notable SST improvements over the results of the control experiment. Additionally, the experiments in which all variables are adjusted and the temperature alone in all model layers is adjusted, produce significant negative effects on the subsurface temperature. Also, they yield negative effects on the subsurface salinity because it is associated with temperature and layer thickness. The experiment adjusting the temperature alone in the mixed layer yields positive effects and outperforms the other experiments. The heat content in the upper 300 m and 300-700 m layers further suggests that it yields the best performance among the experiments.

Analysis of influence of observation operator on sequential data assimilation through soil temperature simulation with common land model

An observation operator is a bridge linking the system state vector and observations in a data assimilation system. Despite its importance, the degree to which an observation operator influences the performance of data assimilation methods is still poorly understood. This study aimed to analyze the influences of linear and nonlinear observation operators on the sequential data assimilation through soil temperature simulation using the unscented particle filter (UPF) and the common land model. The linear observation operator between unprocessed simulations and observations was first established. To improve the correlation between simulations and observations, both were processed based on a series of equations. This processing essentially resulted in a nonlinear observation operator. The linear and nonlinear observation operators were then used along with the UPF in three assimilation experiments: an hourly in situ soil surface temperature assimilation, a daily in situ soil surface temperature assimilation, and a moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) assimilation. The results show that the filter improved the soil temperature simulation significantly with the linear and nonlinear observation operators. The nonlinear observation operator improved the UPF's performance more significantly for the hourly and daily in situ observation assimilations than the linear observation operator did, while the situation was opposite for the MODIS LST assimilation. Because of the high assimilation frequency and data quality, the simulation accuracy was significantly improved in all soil layers for hourly in situ soil surface temperature assimilation, while the significant improvements of the simulation accuracy were limited to the lower soil layers for the assimilation experiments with low assimilation frequency or low data quality.

Stability of the Optimal Solution to a Problem of Variational Assimilation with Error Covariance Matrices of Observational Data for a Sea Thermodynamics Model

A mathematical model of sea thermodynamics developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences is considered. A problem of variational assimilation of daily-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) data with observational error covariance matrices is formulated and investigated. On the basis of variational assimilation of satellite observation data, an inverse problem of restoring the heat flux on the sea surface is solved. The stability of the optimal solution to the problem of variational data assimilation is studied, and the results of numerical experiments with the model for Baltic Sea dynamics are presented.

Generalised Variational Assimilation of Cloud-affected Brightness Temperature of AIRS Data based on the Constraint Terms

Generalised Variational Assimilation of Cloud-affected Brightness Temperature of AIRS Data based on the Constraint Terms

Primenenie metoda adaptivnoj statistiki dlya reanaliza polej Chernogo morya c assimilyatsiej psevdoizmerenij temperatury i solenosti v modeli

Primenenie metoda adaptivnoj statistiki dlya reanaliza polej Chernogo morya c assimilyatsiej psevdoizmerenij temperatury i solenosti v modeli

Variational assimilation of temperature for the model of hydrodynamics of the Baltic Sea: the solution of the open boundary problem

Variational assimilation of temperature for the model of hydrodynamics of the Baltic Sea: the solution of the open boundary problem

One-dimensional soil temperature assimilation experiment based on unscented particle filter and Common Land Model

Data assimilation is an efficient way to improve the simulation/prediction accuracy in many fields of geosciences especially in meteorological and hydrological applications. This study takes unscented particle filter (UPF) as an example to test its performance at different two probability distribution, Gaussian and Uniform distributions with two different assimilation frequencies experiments (1) assimilating hourly in situ soil surface temperature, (2) assimilating the original Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) once per day. The numerical experiment results show that the filter performs better when increasing the assimilation frequency. In addition, UPF is efficient for improving the soil variables (e.g., soil temperature) simulation/prediction accuracy, though it is not sensitive to the probability distribution for observation error in soil temperature assimilation.

The Challenge of Atmospheric Data Assimilation on Mars

Data assimilation is carried out for the Martian atmosphere with the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) retrievals of temperature, dust, and ice. It is performed for the period Ls = 180° to Ls = 320° of Mars Year 29 with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter scheme and the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Mars Global Climate Model (GCM). In order to deal with the forcings of aerosols (dust and water ice) on atmospheric temperatures, a framework is given for multivariate analysis. It consists of assimilating a GCM variable with the help of another GCM variable that can be more easily related to an observation. Despite encouraging results with this method, data assimilation is found to be intrinsically different for Mars and more challenging, due to the Martian atmosphere being less chaotic and exhibiting more global features than on Earth. This is reflected in the three main issues met when achieving various data assimilation experiments: (1) temperature assimilation strongly forces the GCM away from its free‐running state, due to the difficulty of assimilating global atmospheric thermal tides; (2) because of model bias, assimilation of airborne dust is not able to reproduce the vertical diurnal variations of dust observed by MCS, and not present in the GCM; and (3) water ice clouds are nearly impossible to assimilate due to the difficulty to assimilate temperature to a sufficient precision. Overall, further improvements of Martian data assimilation would require an assimilation that goes beyond the local scale and more realism of the GCM, especially for aerosols and thermal tides.

SMOS brightness temperature assimilation into the Community Land Model

Abstract. SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission) brightness temperatures at a single incident angle are assimilated into the Community Land Model (CLM) across Australia to improve soil moisture simulations. Therefore, the data assimilation system DasPy is coupled to the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) as well as to the Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM). Brightness temperature climatologies are precomputed to enable the assimilation of brightness temperature anomalies, making use of 6 years of SMOS data (2010–2015). Mean correlation R with in situ measurements increases moderately from 0.61 to 0.68 (11 %) for upper soil layers if the root zone is included in the updates. A reduced improvement of 5 % is achieved if the assimilation is restricted to the upper soil layers. Root-zone simulations improve by 7 % when updating both the top layers and root zone, and by 4 % when only updating the top layers. Mean increments and increment standard deviations are compared for the experiments. The long-term assimilation impact is analysed by looking at a set of quantiles computed for soil moisture at each grid cell. Within hydrological monitoring systems, extreme dry or wet conditions are often defined via their relative occurrence, adding great importance to assimilation-induced quantile changes. Although still being limited now, longer L-band radiometer time series will become available and make model output improved by assimilating such data that are more usable for extreme event statistics.

Assimilation of water temperature and discharge data for ensemble water temperature forecasting

Recent work demonstrated the value of water temperature forecasts to improve water resources allocation and highlighted the importance of quantifying their uncertainty adequately. In this study, we perform a multisite cascading ensemble assimilation of discharge and water temperature on the Nechako River (Canada) using particle filters. Hydrological and thermal initial conditions were provided to a rainfall-runoff model, coupled to a thermal module, using ensemble meteorological forecasts as inputs to produce 5day ensemble thermal forecasts. Results show good performances of the particle filters with improvements of the accuracy of initial conditions by more than 65% compared to simulations without data assimilation for both the hydrological and the thermal component. All thermal forecasts returned continuous ranked probability scores under 0.8°C when using a set of 40 initial conditions and meteorological forecasts comprising 20 members. A greater contribution of the initial conditions to the total uncertainty of the system for 1-dayforecasts is observed (mean ensemble spread=1.1°C) compared to meteorological forcings (mean ensemble spread=0.6°C). The inclusion of meteorological uncertainty is critical to maintain reliable forecasts and proper ensemble spread for lead times of 2days and more. This work demonstrates the ability of the particle filters to properly update the initial conditions of a coupled hydrological and thermal model and offers insights regarding the contribution of two major sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in thermal forecasts.

Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses

This paper presents a ten-member ensemble of twentieth century Ocean ReAnalyses called ORA-20C. ORA-20C assimilates temperature and salinity profiles and is forced by the ECMWF twentieth century atmospheric reanalysis (ERA-20C) over the 1900–2010 period. This study attempts to identify robust signals of ocean heat content change in ORA-20C and detect contamination by model errors, initial condition uncertainty, surface fluxes and observing system changes. It is shown that ORA-20C trends and variability in the first part of the century result from the surface fluxes and model drift towards a warmer mean state and weak meridional overturning circulation. The impact of the observing system in correcting the mean state causes the deceleration of the warming trend and alters the long-term climate signal. The ensemble spread reflects the long-lasting memory of the initial conditions and the convergence of the system to a solution compatible with surface fluxes, the ocean model and observational constraints. Observations constrain the ocean heat uptake trend in the last decades of the twentieth century, which is similar to trend estimations from the post-satellite era. An ocean heat budget analysis attributes ORA-20C heat content changes to surface fluxes in the first part of the century. The heat flux variability reflects spurious signals stemming from ERA-20C surface fields, which in return result from changes in the atmospheric observing system. The influence of the temperature assimilation increments on the heat budget is growing with time. Increments control the most recent ocean heat uptake signals, highlighting imbalances in forced reanalysis systems in the ocean as well as in the atmosphere.

Brassinosteroid improves lipid productivity and stress tolerance of Chlorella cells induced by high temperature

The application of exogenous brassinosteroids (BRs) against high-temperature stress in algae is poorly studied. The present work aims to assess the function of 2,4-epibrassinolide (EBL) on lipid production during the stress phase of Chlorella vulgaris cultivation induced by high temperature. The maximum growth rate was reached by the treatment with EBL at the optimum temperature of 25 °C, while the highest lipid content was obtained by the treatment with EBL at 30 °C, indicating that EBL significantly increases the lipid content of algae subjected to the stress induced by high temperature. Therefore, the maximum lipid productivity was obtained by cells in the media with EBL under optimum temperature (25 °C). The application of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in this work demonstrated that this technique can effectively and rapidly determine the changes in lipid and carbohydrate. Principal component analysis (PCA) can provide a full view of multivariate shift of cell compositions (i.e., lipids, carbohydrates, and proteins), which is much faster than individual band comparison. Based on FTIR data and PCA analysis, we successfully demonstrated that overall composition changes in algal cell, including lipid, protein, and carbohydrate, in response to the assimilation of high temperature and plant hormones.

Variational assimilation of land surface temperature within the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model Version 1.2.6

Abstract. The SECHIBA module of the ORCHIDEE land surface model describes the exchanges of water and energy between the surface and the atmosphere. In the present paper, the adjoint semi-generator software called YAO was used as a framework to implement a 4D-VAR assimilation scheme of observations in SECHIBA. The objective was to deliver the adjoint model of SECHIBA (SECHIBA-YAO) obtained with YAO to provide an opportunity for scientists and end users to perform their own assimilation. SECHIBA-YAO allows the control of the 11 most influential internal parameters of the soil water content, by observing the land surface temperature or remote sensing data such as the brightness temperature. The paper presents the fundamental principles of the 4D-VAR assimilation, the semi-generator software YAO and a large number of experiments showing the accuracy of the adjoint code in different conditions (sites, PFTs, seasons). In addition, a distributed version is available in the case for which only the land surface temperature is observed.

Application of 3-D ensemble variational data assimilation to a Baltic Sea reanalysis 1989–2013

A 3-D ensemble variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation method has been implemented and tested for oceanographic data assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea ice concentration (SIC), and salinity and temperature profiles. To damp spurious long-range correlations in the ensemble statistics, horizontal and vertical localisation was implemented using empirical orthogonal functions. The results show that the 3DEnVar method is indeed possible to use in oceanographic data assimilation. So far, only a seasonally dependent ensemble has been used, based on historical model simulations. Near-surface experiments showed that the ensemble statistics gave inhomogeneous and anisotropic horizontal structure functions, and assimilation of real SST and SIC fields gave smooth, realistic increment fields. The implementation was multivariate, and results showed that the cross-correlations between variables work in an intuitive way, for example, decreasing SST where SIC was increased and vice versa. The profile data assimilation also gave good results. The results from a 25-year reanalysis showed that the vertical salinity and temperature structure were significantly improved, compared to both dependent and independent data.

Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model

We document a pilot stochastic re-analysis computed by assimilating sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the ocean component of the coupled Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) for the period 1950–2010 (doi: 10.11582/2016.00002). NorCPM is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model and uses the ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation (DA). Here, we assimilate SST from the stochastic HadISST2 historical reconstruction. The accuracy, reliability and drift are investigated using both assimilated and independent observations. NorCPM is slightly overdispersive against assimilated observations but shows stable performance through the analysis period. It demonstrates skills against independent measurements: sea surface height, heat and salt content, in particular in the Equatorial and North Pacific, the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region and the Nordic Seas. Furthermore, NorCPM provides a reliable monitoring of the SPG index and represents the vertical temperature variability there, in good agreement with observations. The monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is also encouraging. The benefit of using a flow-dependent assimilation method and constructing the covariance in isopycnal coordinates are investigated in the SPG region. Isopycnal coordinates discretisation is found to better capture the vertical structure than standard depth-coordinate discretisation, because it leads to a deeper influence of the assimilated surface observations. The vertical covariance shows a pronounced seasonal and decadal variability that highlights the benefit of flow-dependent DA method. This study demonstrates the potential of NorCPM to compute an ocean re-analysis for the 19th and 20th centuries when SST observations are available.

Estimating surface turbulent heat fluxes from land surface temperature and soil moisture observations using the particle batch smoother

AbstractSurface heat fluxes interact with the overlying atmosphere and play a crucial role in meteorology, hydrology, and climate change studies, but in situ observations are costly and difficult. It has been demonstrated that surface heat fluxes can be estimated from assimilation of land surface temperature (LST). One approach is to estimate a neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN) to scale the sum of turbulent heat fluxes, and an evaporative fraction (EF) that represents the partitioning between fluxes. Here the newly developed particle batch smoother (PBS) is implemented. The PBS makes no assumptions about the prior distributions and is therefore well‐suited for non‐Gaussian processes. It is also particularly advantageous for parameter estimation by tracking the entire prior distribution of parameters using Monte Carlo sampling. To improve the flux estimation on wet or densely vegetated surfaces, a simple soil moisture scheme is introduced to further constrain EF, and soil moisture observations are assimilated simultaneously. This methodology is implemented with the FIFE 1987 and 1988 data sets. Validation against observed fluxes indicates that assimilating LST using the PBS significantly improves the flux estimates at both daily and half‐hourly timescales. When soil moisture is assimilated, the estimated EFs become more accurate, particularly when the surface heat flux partitioning is energy‐limited. The feasibility of extending the methodology to use remote sensing observations is tested by limiting the number of LST observations. Results show that flux estimates are greatly improved after assimilating soil moisture, particularly when LST observations are sparse.

Assimilation of humidity and temperature observations retrieved from ground‐based microwave radiometers into a convective‐scale NWP model

Temperature and humidity retrievals from an international network of ground‐based microwave radiometers (MWRs) have been collected to assess the potential of their assimilation into a convective‐scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. Thirteen stations over a domain encompassing the western Mediterranean basin were considered for a time period of 41 days in autumn, when heavy precipitation events most often plague this area.Prior to their assimilation, MWR data were compared to very‐short‐term forecasts. Observation‐minus‐background statistics revealed some biases, but standard deviations were comparable to that obtained with radiosondes. The MWR data were then assimilated in a three‐dimensional variational data assimilation system through the use of a rapid update cycle. A first set of four different experiments were designed to assess the impact of the assimilation of temperature and humidity profiles, both separately and jointly. This assessment was done through the use of a comprehensive dataset of upper‐air and surface observations collected in the framework of the HyMeX programme.The results showed that the impact was generally very limited on all verified parameters, except for precipitation. The impact was found to be generally beneficial in terms of most verification metrics for about 18 h, especially for larger accumulations. Two additional data‐denial experiments showed that even more positive impact could be obtained when MWR data were assimilated without other redundant observations. The conclusion of the study points to possible ways of enhancing the impact of the assimilation of MWR data in convective‐scale NWP systems.

Assimilation of temperature and hydraulic gradients for quantifying the spatial variability of streambed hydraulics

AbstractUnderstanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of water flux into or out of shallow aquifers is imperative for water resources management and eco‐environmental conservation. In this study, the spatial variability in the vertical specific fluxes and hydraulic conductivities in a streambed were evaluated by integrating distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data and vertical hydraulic gradients into an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and smoother (EnKS) and an empirical thermal‐mixing model. The formulation of the EnKF/EnKS assimilation scheme is based on a discretized 1D advection‐conduction equation of heat transfer in the streambed. We first systematically tested a synthetic case and performed quantitative and statistical analyses to evaluate the performance of the assimilation schemes. Then a real‐world case was evaluated to calculate assimilated specific flux. An initial estimate of the spatial distributions of the vertical hydraulic gradients was obtained from an empirical thermal‐mixing model under steady‐state conditions using a constant vertical hydraulic conductivity. Then, this initial estimate was updated by repeatedly dividing the assimilated specific flux by estimates of the vertical hydraulic gradients to obtain a refined spatial distribution of vertical hydraulic gradients and vertical hydraulic conductivities. Our results indicate that optimal parameters can be derived with fewer iterations but greater simulation effort using the EnKS compared with the EnKF. For the field application in a stream segment of the Heihe River Basin in northwest China, the average vertical hydraulic conductivities in the streambed varied over three orders of magnitude (5 × 10−1 to 5 × 102 m/d). The specific fluxes ranged from near zero (qz < ±0.05 m/d) to ±1.0 m/d, while the vertical hydraulic gradients were within the range of −0.2 to 0.15 m/m. The highest and most variable fluxes occurred adjacent to a debris‐dam and bridge pier. This phenomenon is very likely the result of heterogeneous streambed hydraulic characteristics in these areas. Our results have significant implications for hyporheic micro‐habitats, fish spawning and other wildlife incubation, regional flow and hyporheic solute transport models in the Heihe River Basin, as well as in other similar hydrologic settings.

Numerical modeling of ocean hydrodynamics with variational assimilation of observational data

Models and methods of the numerical modeling of ocean hydrodynamics dating back to the pioneering works of A.S. Sarkisyan are considered, with emphasis on the formulation of problems and algorithms of mathematical modeling and the four-dimensional variational assimilation of observational data. An algorithm is proposed for studying the sensitivity of the optimal solution to observational data errors in a seasurface temperature assimilation problem in order to retrieve heat fluxes on the surface. An example of a solution of the optimal problem of the World Ocean hydrodynamics with the assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity observations is offered.