Social Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Social, Economic, Environmental, and Physical Vulnerability Assessment: An Index-Based Gender Analysis of Flood Prone Areas of Koshi River Basin in Nepal

Gender analysis in vulnerability assessments is needed in disaster risk reduction (DRR). This study examined headship-based household vulnerabilities in the Koshi River Basin of Nepal. This comparative study between male-headed households (MHHs) and female-headed households (FHHs) analyzed the social, infrastructural, economic, and environmental components of vulnerability assessments. A mixed method was used to collect data, including a survey of 216 households, 15 key informant interviews, 40 in-depth interviews, and 8 focus group discussions. The results from the weightage average index (WAI) revealed that the FHHs are more vulnerable in all components. Social and physical components show greater vulnerability for FHHs compared to economic and environmental components. The t-test showed that the difference in multidimensional vulnerability is highly significant (F = 3.423, p-value = 0.000). The WAI calculation showed 42%, 51%, and 7% FHHs and 6%, 35%, 49%, and 10% of MHHs are in very high, high, moderate, and low levels of vulnerability, respectively. Sociocultural norms were the main factors driving the gap which affected households’ ability to respond to and recover from flood disasters and impacted the DRR process. The study suggests that more attention is given to FHHs through increased access to services, capacity building, awareness training, livelihood initiatives, participation in preparedness activities, and inclusion in the DRR process to minimize the impact of floods in the future, particularly for FHHs.

Social and ecological climate change vulnerability assessment in the Indus delta, Pakistan

Abstract Due to seawater intrusion into the Indus delta, Pakistan under changing climate scenarios, the local communities of the delta are under threat of land and livelihood. The present study was initiated to analyze community perceptions about the social and ecological climate change vulnerability in the Indus delta, Pakistan. About 500 permanent residents of the delta were interviewed using a well-structured questionnaire. The IBM SPSS software was used to analyze the data based on the Pearson chi-square, Goodman, Kruskal's analyses, and Foster Greer Thorbeck (FGT) techniques. Analysis of the data revealed that the people in the delta had poor infrastructure and living standards, and limited social activities. Most of the people were illiterate, and the average family size was 11. On average, 4.7 members lived in a single room, and most of the houses were made of wood. Based on FGT techniques, about 88.4% of the population were living below the poverty line. The statistical analysis identified seawater intrusion and climate change as the most significant parameters affecting soil fertility, water quality, vegetation, mangroves, and livelihood. A large portion of the respondents strongly demanded the ensured freshwater flow to save the ecosystem, water resources, and the livelihood of the delta communities.

ОЦІНЮВАННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНОЇ ВРАЗЛИВОСТІ: ТЕОРЕТИКО-МЕТОДОЛОГІЧНІ АСПЕКТИ

Розробка ефективних стратегій і прийняття оперативних рішень у системі управління надзвичайними ситуаціями повинні ґрунтуватися на комплексному оцінюванні вразливості соціальних систем. Для цього слід розвивати його теоретико-методологічні основи в напрямі забезпечення його комплексності. Сформульовано авторське визначення вразливості як властивості соціальної системи, що характеризується мірою схильності, чутливості до шкідливого впливу небезпечних подій і водночас ступенем здатності справлятися з ними, чинити опір і відновлюватися після них. Проаналізовано такі основні фактори вразливості, як диспозиція, схильність зазнати впливу лиха, катастрофи (exposure); чутливість (susceptibility) і резилетність (resilience). Висвітлено чотири компоненти соціальної вразливості (економічну, соціальну, екологічну, фізичну) та головні індикатори їх оцінювання. Показано, що економічна вразливість характеризує потенційний вплив небезпек на економічні процеси, майно чи певні сектори економіки; соціальна – стосується окремих груп населення, які не здатні самостійно впоратися з катастрофами, їх зв’язку, характеру відносин із суспільством; екологічна – включає індикатори, що характеризують вплив небезпечних подій на природне середовище (флору, фауну, екосистеми, біорізноманіття); фізична – визначає можливість, потенціал певного елемента чи системи зазнати змін або пошкоджень під впливом природних чи антропогенних небезпек. Запропоновано аналіз ментальної вразливості, яка включає не лише установки окремих індивідів чи груп стосовно навколишнього світу, зокрема небезпек і загроз, а й загальний спосіб мислення, певні знання і навички подолання проблем. Розроблено логіко-структурну схему дослідження соціальної вразливості, що дозволяє здійснити комплексний підбір індикаторів для кожної її компоненти (економічної, соціальної, екологічної, фізичної та ментальної) крізь призму факторів диспозиції, чутливості й резилентності. Комплексне оцінювання соціальної вразливості є передумовою для розробки заходів з її зменшення, що здатне запобігти людським, фізичним і економічним втратам.

Phasing out of nuclear - Phasing out of risk? Spatial assessment of social vulnerability and exposure to nuclear power plants in Germany

While nuclear power plants (NPP) are built back in Germany, the exposure risk will remain for some time being. This study conducts a geospatial analysis in exposure radii from 5 to 80 km around 41 NPP sites in and around Germany. The results show that 40 out of 113 major cities are exposed, and that vulnerability patterns vary. Foreigners and women live closer to NPPs, while it is the opposite with young and elderly people. This non-regular spatial distribution of population groups can be important to guide evacuation and emergency planning.

Assessment of social vulnerability in areas exposed to multiple hazards: A case study of the Khuzestan Province, Iran

The inability of a system to plan for, respond to, and adapt to hazards and unfavorable occurrences can lead to social vulnerability. Managers and planners can use social vulnerability assessment to optimize budget allocation, devise mitigation measures, and prepare for disasters. The purpose of this study was to determine the social vulnerability to natural disasters in the counties in Khuzestan Province (southwest Iran). This was accomplished by using geographic information system (GIS) methods and multi-criteria decision-making procedures. Data on the vulnerability to four distinct types of hazards (floods, earthquakes, landslides, and dust storms) were gathered, and the counties were ranked using fifteen social vulnerability indicators. The findings indicated that earthquakes and landslides have had the greatest impact on the vulnerability of the northern and northeastern counties in the province. Floods and dust storms have a greater impact on central, western, and southern counties. Western and eastern counties have the highest levels of social vulnerability, while southern counties have the lowest. The findings can be applied to establish plans for reducing social vulnerability and strengthening resilience in the province. Additionally, the methodology employed in the research project can be used to analyze social vulnerability in other countries with similar situations.

Flood Social Vulnerability Assessment: A case study of Türkiye

Doğal afetler düşünüldüğünde, taşkınlar en sık karşılaşılan ve de en fazla hasara sebep olanlar arasında yer almaktadır. Taşkın riskini oluşturan bileşenlerin değerlendirilmesi ve riskin sayısallaştırılması, bu risk gerçekleştiğinde karşılaşılması beklenen büyük boyutlu etkilerden korunmak için önemlidir. Taşkın riskini kapsamlı bir şekilde değerlendirebilmek için riskin sosyal ve biyofiziksel katmanlarının birlikte ele alınması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, toplumun herhangi bir dış baskı faktörüne karşı adaptasyon yeteneğini ve duyarlılığını ölçen Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik Endeksi, tüm Türkiye özelinde il bazında değerlendirilmiştir. Literatür taraması ve veri ulaşılabilirliği göz önüne alınarak 8 farklı etkilenebilirlik parametresi belirlenmiştir. Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik Endeksi analizi sonucunda 14 farklı şehir çok yüksek derecede etkilenebilir olarak nitelendirilmiştir. 1960 ve 2021 yılları arasındaki tarihi taşkınlar il bazında analiz edilmiştir. Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik Analizi ve tarihi taşkınların değerlendirilmesi sonucunda bu 14 şehirden yalnızca 3’ü Taşkın Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik Endeksi’nde en yüksek dereceyi almışıtr. Bu Taşkın Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik Endeksi analizi sonuçları yalnızca riskin sosyal veya biyofiziksel katmanlarının yeterli olmadığı, riskin kapsamlı şekilde ifade edilebilmesi için bu iki katmanın birlikte değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymuştur. Bu çalışmada uygulanan ve önerilen yöntem karar vericiler için kullanışlı bir metod olmakla beraber tüm Türkiye’deki taşkın hazırlık yetkinliğini arttırmada rol oynayabilecektir.

A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING AND ASSESSING SOCIAL VULNERABILITY

A conceptual framework for understanding and assessing social vulnerability is developed. In particular, the essence of this concept is clarified and the scheme for its assessment is constructed. It allows to select indicators for each component of vulnerability (economic, social, environmental, physical and mental) through the lens of disposition, sensitivity and resilience. Such indicator selection will provide a comprehensive assessment of social vulnerability, which is an important basis for its reducing.

Mapping recent (1997–2017) and future (2030) county-level social vulnerability to socio-economic conditions and natural hazards throughout Iran

Social vulnerability assessments are intended to help mitigate or prevent adverse socio-economic effects of environmental hazards on human societies. In this study, we monitored the change of social vulnerability to multiple environmental hazards over a 20-year (1997–2017) period in Iran and provide a prediction of social vulnerability for 2030 under the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Following validation of two social vulnerability index (SoVI) values based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and a weighed method using observed county-level disaster outcomes, social vulnerability to four environmental variables or risk factors (i.e., drought, flood, landslide, and earthquake) was evaluated with 32 socio-economic values using the weighted method. Social vulnerability was strongly correlated with its three dimensions (i.e., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), and each dimension was strongly correlated with its constituent variables. Results showed that despite improved adaptive capacity between 1997 and 2017, simultaneously increased sensitivity and exposure increased social vulnerability spatially unevenly throughout the country, with greater increases in northern and northeastern than in central and southeastern counties. Extrapolating socio-economic variables and accounting for projected increases in drought severity is expected to increase the social vulnerability of the country by ∼27%, with forty-three (11%) mostly northern, northwestern, and northeastern counties with a combined population of ∼37 million people (46% of the current Iranian population) exposed to high to very high levels of vulnerability by 2030. Adaptation programs to enhance the resilience following deteriorating socio-economic conditions and climate change-induced droughts in these counties may require better water management strategies to enhance water security. Given the socio-economic conditions of the country and international sanctions, programs should be flanked by more balanced investment in less developed and more vulnerable counties to increase economic and social prosperity and prevent mass migration to more developed areas. This major challenge necessitates more accurate economic planning, development of investment, and improved international relations.

Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley

In our rapidly urbanizing world, many hazard-prone regions face significant challenges regarding risk-informed urban development. This study addresses this issue by investigating evolving spatial interactions between natural hazards, ever-increasing urban areas, and social vulnerability in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The methodology considers: (1) the characterization of flood hazard and liquefaction susceptibility using pre-existing global models; (2) the simulation of future urban built-up areas using the cellular-automata SLEUTH model; and (3) the assessment of social vulnerability, using a composite index tailored for the case-study area. Results show that built-up areas in Kathmandu Valley will increase to 352 km2 by 2050, effectively doubling the equivalent 2018 figure. The most socially vulnerable villages will account for 29% of built-up areas in 2050, 11% more than current levels. Built-up areas in the 100-year and 1000-year return period floodplains will respectively increase from 38 km2 and 49 km2 today to 83 km2 and 108 km2 in 2050. Additionally, built-up areas in liquefaction-susceptible zones will expand by 13 km2 to 47 km2. This study illustrates how, where, and to which extent risks from natural hazards can evolve in socially vulnerable regions. Ultimately, it emphasizes an urgent need to implement effective policy measures for reducing tomorrow's natural-hazard risks.

Social vulnerability assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in a Northeastern state in India

The Himalayas are experiencing rapid climate change that is significantly contributing to glacier retreat, formation of new glacial lakes, and enlargement of the existing ones. The presence of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region makes it a potential threat for the downstream community, as the catastrophic failure of the lake causes the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), which significantly damages the low-lying areas. Devising appropriate risk reduction strategies for the downstream community to the GLOF hazard is the prime concern for the policymakers. In this study, we have assessed the social vulnerability of the downstream community of Chungthang town of Sikkim Himalaya. Many settlements at Chungthang are potentially exposed to the future GLOF of South Lohnak Lake, one of the fastest-growing glacial lakes in Sikkim, India. A sample size of 90 households have been selected and classified into migrated and permanent residents for the study. Primary data have been collected by using a semi-structured questionnaire. Results revealed that, in Chungthang migrated population are more vulnerable because of their low adaptive capacity and high exposure to the GLOF of South Lohnak lake in Sikkim. The study suggests some important mitigation measures to decrease the vulnerability of the vulnerable community by improving some of the important socioeconomic indicators.

Analytic hierarchy process and sensitivity analysis implementation for social vulnerability assessment: A case study from Brazil

AbstractOne major challenge of social impact assessment concerns the implementation of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to ascertain the vulnerability of households to environmental change. While MCDA has been widely used to combine vulnerability indicators into an aggregated vulnerability score, the sensitivity of vulnerability indices to uncertain appraisals and judgements of the magnitudes and weights of indicators has been largely ignored so far. In this work, based on vulnerability indicators previously selected and ranked using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, for household Brazil surveys carried out in 1998 and 2012, a sensitivity analysis (SA) was implemented to account for the variation of vulnerability indicators over time and space. In particular, two techniques were applied: the indicator removal and the threshold value tests. The indicator removal test involved setting to zero a particular indicator weight and rescaling the remaining indicator weights linearly. The threshold value test aimed to identify which indicators had the most relative influence on both indices. Finally, the critical threshold value showed the most important vulnerability indicators and allowed to summarise and contrast the standardized scores differences of the indicators between the two surveys. The results showed which indicators were the most important in increasing or decreasing the vulnerability and improved the understanding of how the overall vulnerability of rainfed farming households changed through time as a function of changes in sensitivity and adaptive capacity.

Integrating ecological and social vulnerability assessment in Qinghai Province, China

Vulnerability assessment has become a critical issue and an important approach for regional sustainable development research. Qinghai Province, which located in the northeast part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, suffers a severe grassland degradation caused by human activities. Grassland degradation constrains the development of local animal husbandry and further affects the vulnerability of social system. In this study, based on the vulnerability assessment framework of exposure-sensitivity-adaptability, two index systems were established including ecological and social aspects. The entropy weight method was used to determine the index weight. The variations of ecological vulnerability (EV) and social vulnerability (SV) of Qinghai Province were assessed from 1995 to 2015. Results showed that EV in Qinghai Province increased from east to west, and decreased from north to south, while SV showed an opposite trend. Key ecologically fragile areas were mainly located in the Qaidam Basin and western Three-River Headwaters Region, while key SV areas were mainly distributed in the Qilian Mountains and eastern Three-River Headwaters Region. The overall EV showed a decreasing trend through time, but increased in several local areas. SV dropped significantly during study period, especially in the eastern part of Qinghai Province. The results will help to identify key vulnerable areas of Qinghai Province and provide a reference for the region to formulate sustainable development strategies.

Geophysical and Societal Dimensions of Floods in Manitoba, Canada: A Social Vulnerability Assessment of the Rural Municipality of St. Andrews

Being strongly influenced by the landscape of the Red River Valley, geophysical and a variety of sociodemographic and economic factors, the characteristics of floods are complex in the Province of Manitoba, Canada, which causes substantial loss and damage to lives and properties. The primary objectives of this study are two-fold: (i) to identify the geophysical and human-induced conditions of floods, and examine the trend in flood loss and damage in the Province of Manitoba, Canada; and (ii) to analyze the social vulnerability perspectives of floods in the Rural Municipality of St. Andrews, as a local community case study. Using the Delphi technique, primary data were procured from the field for community-level vulnerability analysis. Secondary data for a provincial-level analysis were collected from various public domains, including governmental departments and other non-government sources. The results reveal that a nested set of geophysical and societal factors determine the degree of vulnerability of individual community members. In Manitoba, it was found that socioeconomic damages caused by floods have increased considerably over time despite undertaking costly structural flood mitigation measures. We conclude that minimization of flood damages requires complementing structural measures with knowledge-sharing, collaboration among pertinent institutions, and the adoption of an interactive flood management system approach.

Assessment of Urban Social Vulnerability Under the Background of Climate Change and Urbanization: Taking Wuhan as an Example

Assessment of Urban Social Vulnerability Under the Background of Climate Change and Urbanization: Taking Wuhan as an Example

Social Vulnerability Assessment for Air Pollution in China

Social Vulnerability Assessment for Air Pollution in China

The Challenge of Social Vulnerability Assessment in the Context of Land Use Changes for Sustainable Urban Planning—Case Studies: Developing Cities in Romania

Urban growth triggers massive changes in land use cover, exacerbating extreme natural and technological events. In order for land use planning to be efficient, it requires the integration of comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessment. This paper aims to create a bridge between the existing vulnerability theories and their implementation in land use planning policies and proposes an innovative approach to determine whether the changes in the territorial dynamics of cities draw considerable changes in communities’ social vulnerability. The methodology identifies and selects three case studies from the Urban Atlas inventory, representative of the dynamics of large Romanian cities, taking into consideration the following hazards: earthquakes, floods, and technological hazards. Vulnerability was then assessed by assigning each land use class a specific vulnerability level. The methodology involved assessing the level of vulnerability specific to the situation in 2018 compared to 2006. The results showed that major changes in land use are related to the transition of areas with a low level of vulnerability to areas with a higher level of vulnerability as a result of the urban areas expansion to the detriment of natural and agricultural areas. This is generally translated into a higher degree of vulnerability due to an increased density of artificial elements and of population in the residential areas. The findings of the study of territorial dynamics in the proximity of large industrial operators did not reveal a tendency that differed from the general trend. Although many territorial changes have been observed in the period 2006–2018, it is necessary to extend the analysis, with the issue of the new versions of the Urban Atlas, to confirm the identified trends and to express the up-to-date situation.

A TODIM-based approach for the assessment of social vulnerability in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2017

Social vulnerability assessment is of great significance for risk management and reduction. Carrying out the assessment is beneficial to the sustainability of the development of society and the economy. For this purpose, Jiangsu province in China is taken as the study area to explore the social vulnerability assessment at a city level. A framework has been constructed from three dimensions of demographics, economics, and social security. In our study, a new approach based on the maximizing deviation method and TODIM model is proposed to evaluate social vulnerability in Jiangsu province. For the sake of analysis, we divide 13 cities of Jiangsu province into three parts, namely the southern part, central part, and northern part, according to the geographical location. As a result, the north part performance of social vulnerability is the worst among the three regions. The average of the northern part has always obviously exceeded the others of Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2017, which indicates that the north part is the most vulnerable to natural hazards. In addition, the performance of the southern part is relatively better than that of the central region. Especially, Suqian has always been at the bottom from 2012 to 2017, which reveals the ability to withstand natural disasters is the most insufficient. Our findings also imply that social vulnerability is related to local economic development to some extent.

An integrative approach to planning for community-based adaptation to sea-level rise in Thailand

This paper outlines an integrative process for community-based adaptation plans to sea-level rise (SLR) effects in Kohklang Sub-district, Thailand. Three objectives guide this research: (1) to identify flood prone areas and develop a coastal vulnerability index (CVI) (e.g., to estimate ecosystem service impacts and economic loss in flood prone areas); (2) to co-develop risk profiles and social vulnerability assessment; and (3) to synthesize assessment outcomes and generate corresponding adaptation plans and recommendations. A knowledge co-production process was used to link participatory action research (PAR) on social conditions and changes with technical assessments of sea-level rise simulations at 0.5 and 1 m to identify flood prone areas and develop the CVI. Additional data collection and analyses methods include a review of literature and synthesis of expert opinion (n = 5) regarding SLR effects on estimated losses in ecosystem services and community livelihoods, semi-structured interviews (n = 50) and focus group discussions (n = 17 people). We find that a co-production process of natural and social science, together with local knowledge, provides a holistic and integrative identification of impacts of sea level rise and community-based adaptation plans and policy. Initial results were synthesized and then presented to multiple stakeholders in a Kohklang community workshop to further clarify findings and confirm insights. This research process has highlighted the significance of transdisciplinary and participatory approaches to developing household- and community-level policy and plans for adaptation to sea level rise. Outcomes of the research include practical recommendations to address vulnerability concerns, as well as a draft adaptation plan for inclusion in the strategy of the sub-district administrative authority.

Blue Carbon Ecosystem Services Through a Vulnerability Lens: Opportunities to Reduce Social Vulnerability in Fishing Communities

Ecosystem services (ES) are benefits nature provides to humans; these services change in space and time and are largely dependent on context. Coastal habitat that provides key ES are blue carbon ecosystems, namely seagrass and mangroves. One important ES they provide is the provisioning of seafood, which benefits coastal populations with livelihoods and food security. We employed a social-ecological approach that draws from the vulnerability literature for social, ecological, and economic criteria to map ES provision in ten communities on Busuanga Island, Palawan Province, Philippines. We assess the spatial dynamics of ES provision for small-scale fisheries in seagrass and mangroves, in relation to local beneficiaries. Using a mixed-methods approach with ecological assessments of seagrass beds, spatial analysis, landing surveys, household and key informant interviews, we overlaid biophysical variables on social data, mapping sensitivities and adaptive capacities to compare communities’ social vulnerabilities. Spatial analysis revealed healthy blue carbon ecosystems in ten local communities (barangays) as measured by proportion of coastline covered, low patchiness and high continuity along the coastline, and the presence of adjacent habitat. We found seagrass ecosystems were more vulnerable than mangroves. Rural barangays had less exposure and lower sensitivity to blue carbon ecosystem loss than urban barangays. Blue carbon ecosystem fisheries are highly sensitive fisheries, due to their catch composition and low catch per unit effort, with mangrove fisheries having a slightly lower sensitivity than seagrass fisheries due to greater catch per unit effort. Diversified livelihoods and the presence of NGOs and People’s Organizations (POs) increased adaptive capacity and reduced overall vulnerability. We aim to highlight a coastal human community’s relationship with blue carbon ecosystems using context-specific vulnerability criteria. Our site-specific social vulnerability assessment may be adapted for use in other coastal communities within the coral triangle. This work suggests opportunities for conservation interventions to manage local communities’ sensitivities and adaptive capacity around the use of blue carbon ecosystems.

Comparative analysis of the social vulnerability assessment to climate change applied to fisheries from Spain and Turkey

The aim of this study is to assess the climate effects on fisheries from a bottom-up approach based on fishers’ fishing experience, knowledge, and perceptions. To perform this task, a social vulnerability assessment was conducted in two different fishing areas: one in Spain and the other one in Turkey. The vulnerability was measured using the collected data and information through a structured questionnaire, and surveys were carried out among fishers in the Castelló (Spain) and the Aegean Sea (Turkey) between 2018 and 2019. Overall, the results indicated that the two studied regions have a moderate to high vulnerability and that the Aegean Sea was slightly more vulnerable than Castelló. It was also found that storms and temperature are the main climatic stressors that affect the fishing sector, and the economic indicators such as revenue from fishing in both regions showed high degrees of sensitivity. To reduce the vulnerability to climate change, adaptive measures should be implemented while taking into consideration the specific socio-economic and institutional characteristics of each region. In conclusion, the effects of climate change on the fishing sector and their social vulnerability are diverse. Consequently, there is no single climate measure that can minimize the vulnerability of fishing sectors in different regions.