Climate Risk Assessment Research Articles

Assesing Climate Change Risk in the Mining Industry: A Case Study in the Copper Industry in the Antofagasta Region, Chile

The challenges climate change poses require careful consideration and addressing within specific industries. In the mining context, climate change introduces potential limitations to the sustainable sourcing of minerals, thereby amplifying the criticality of several metals. However, most studies examining mineral criticality fail to assess the localized impacts of climate change, despite significant variations occurring at a relatively small scale. In this study, we propose a methodological approach for conducting a climate risk assessment in the mining industry, encompassing the identification of relevant hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure specific to the sector. To illustrate the application of this approach, we utilize micro-level data for the Antofagasta region in Chile, a prominent mining cluster situated in a country projected to be profoundly affected by climate change. The findings of this study underscore the necessity for coordinated efforts in adaptation and climate resilience while offering a valuable tool for allocating resources to more vulnerable locations, thus strengthening the mineral supply chain.

Forty years of climate risk research in Zimbabwe – 1980–2021

ABSTRACT Identifying sound strategies to manage climate risks requires understanding complex systems, characterised by; a large number of potential factors that interact; multiple stakeholder constituencies with diverse values, deep and dynamic uncertainties. This paper assesses the general understanding and dominant narrative regarding climate change in particular societies in order to track the trends regarding the management of climate risk. In this regard, this paper considers climate risk from a Zimbabwean perspective between 1980 and 2021. The assessment of climate risk in Zimbabwe took cognisance of the fact that climate change is a subject that has received a considerable amount of attention in Zimbabwean focused literature. As such, secondary data were used to understand the dominant narratives regarding climate risk in Zimbabwe. The climate risk discussion in Zimbabwe has significantly grown over past four decades nonetheless, it is evident that the dominant narrative is biased towards climate change adaptation particularly on aspects of agricultural and livelihoods sensitivity from a water scarcity perspective. Other adaptation components such as the exposure to hazards, indigenous knowledge systems, ecological and infrastructure vulnerability, communication and gender dimensions of climate change also form the bulk of issues that dominate the adaptation centred narrative.

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Ways to improve climate change adaptation plan of the transport

Aim: Development of recommendations for improving the climate change adaptation plan in the field of transport.
 Methods: The research method was the analysis of climate risk factors and their dynamics, as well as the features of failures in communication and automation devices in a changing climate.
 Results: The proposed directions for improving the climate change adaptation plan in the field of transport are to take into account a priori probability when assessing climate risks for transport facilities, as well as considering the impact of exogenous geological processes on transport facilities. It is shown that the transport infrastructure that are significantly affected by the changing factors of climate risk are communication and automation systems. Inclusiveness in the development of climate change adaptation activities in the field of transport can be achieved, including accelerated training of personnel for the implementation of the climate change adaptation plan in the field of transport and the consideration of greenhouse gas absorption technologies as climate change adaptation measures.
 Conclusion: Taking into account proposals for improving the climate change adaptation plan in the field of transport will focus on climate-vulnerable systems, provide the necessary level of professional training for the implementation of the adaptation plan, include greenhouse gas absorption technologies in the industry and ensure participation in the development of measures to adaptation to climate change of all stakeholders.

Assessment of global sorghum production, tolerance, and climate risk

Some cereal crops can withstand harsh growing conditions, and, hence, can be considered an important line of defense against food shortage under climate change. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Monech) is the main food crop for millions of people, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This crop performs well under input constraints (e.g., limited water) and exhibits high resilience to adverse climate conditions (e.g., high temperature, drought, and waterlogging), making it a star crop for combating hunger under climate change. However, sorghum and other similar crops are not tolerant in absolute terms. Climate change could push the growing conditions of these crops beyond the limits they can tolerate, jeopardizing the food security of millions of people around the world. In this research, we analyzed the current status of sorghum production, trends, and factors controlling sorghum yield using empirical approaches. Especially in sub-Saharan Africa, this crop is cultivated widely under unfavorable climate conditions and sub-optimal input levels. Our findings raise multiple concerns as well as highlight opportunities for the sustainability of sorghum cultivation in a future with climate change. Sorghum yield seems to increase persistently despite global warming due to an improved inputs approach, offering hope that similar adaptation approaches can be fruitful, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. A combination of interventions including adequate use of fertilizers and technology adoption (e.g., tolerant cultivars), efficient management (e.g. improved irrigation), and better agronomic practices, is the key to boosting sorghum yield and ensuring the sustainability of this important crop under a warmer climate.

Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Considerations for Municipal Governance

Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Considerations for Municipal Governance

Intersectional climate perceptions: Understanding the impacts of race and gender on climate experiences, future concerns, and planning efforts

Climate change impacts are intensifying social inequalities locally and globally. Exposure to climate risks, as well as the ability to prepare for and recover from them, are affected by complex power structures. An expanding body of literature uses an intersectional lens to explicate a more nuanced understanding of how co-constituted power structures manufacture differential climate vulnerabilities. Despite the increasing focus on intersectional approaches to institutionalized climate planning, there are limited quantitative studies examining how the co-constituted processes of being racialized and gendered influence climate change perceptions in the United States. In contribution to these conversations, we examine how race and gender together shape experiences of climate impacts, perceptions of future risk, and desires for adaptation actors in Austin, Texas. Using a survey of Austin area households, we explored climate perceptions including residents self-reported experience of four types of climate events, assessment of changing climate risks, overall climate change concerns, and desires for resilience actions by a variety of actors. Our research suggests that race and gender, income levels, and political party are related to which climate events people report experiencing, their perception of changes to various climate risks, their overall climate concern, and their support for various climate adaptation actors.

Improving stakeholder engagement in climate change risk assessments: insights from six co-production initiatives in Europe

It is increasingly recognized that effective climate risk assessments benefit from well-crafted processes of knowledge co-production involving key stakeholders and scientists. To support the co-production of actionable knowledge on climate change, a careful design and planning process is often called for to ensure that relevant perspectives are integrated and to promote shared understandings and joint ownership of the research process. In this article, we aim to further refine methods for co-producing climate services to support risk-informed decision-support and adaptation action. By drawing on insights and lessons learned from participatory processes in six case studies in Northern and Central Europe, we seek to better understand how associated challenges and opportunities arising in co-production processes play out in different case-specific contexts. All cases have applied a standardized framework for climate vulnerability and risk assessment, the impact chain method. The analysis builds on multiple methods including a survey among case study researchers and stakeholders, interviews with researchers, as well as a project workshop to develop collective insights and synthesize results. The results illustrate case studies' different approaches to stakeholder involvement as well as the outputs, outcomes, and impacts resulting from the risk assessments. Examples include early indications of mutual learning and improved understanding of climate risks, impacts and vulnerability, and local and regional decision contexts, as well as actual uptake in planning and decision contexts. Other outcomes concern scientific progress and contribution to methodological innovations. Overall, our study offers insights into the value of adopting good practices in knowledge co-production in impact chain-based climate risk assessments, with wider lessons for the climate services domain. While collaborations and interactions have contributed to a number of benefits some practical challenges remain for achieving effective co-production processes in the context of climate change and adaptation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a carefully designed but flexible and iterative participatory approach that enables joint learning; reassessment of stakeholder needs and capacities; and co-produced, actionable climate services with the potential to catalyze climate action.

Assessment of Risks Associated with Extreme Climate Events in Small-Scale Bivalve Fisheries: Conceptual Maps for Decision-Making Based on a Review of Recent Studies

Extreme climate events, such as heatwaves and torrential rain, affect the physiology and functioning of marine species, especially in estuarine habitats, producing severe ecological and socioeconomic impacts when the affected species support important fisheries, such as artisanal shellfisheries. Studies of the impact of sudden decreases in salinity and increases in temperature were reviewed with the aim of producing comprehensive conceptual maps to aid the management of fisheries of the native clams Ruditapes decussatus and Venerupis corrugata, the introduced Ruditapes philippinarum, and the cockle Cerastoderma edule in Galicia (NW Spain). The maps show the effects on mortality, scope for growth, ability to burrow, changes in gonad development or predation risk. While V. corrugata will generally be more affected by low salinity (5 to 15) or high temperature (30 °C) during only two tidal cycles, C. edule populations may recover. Both species are also expected to become more vulnerable to predators. The clams R. philippinarum and R. decussatus will be more resistant, unless extreme events occur after massive spawning episodes; however, the presence of the intertidal seagrass Zostera noltei may buffer the negative effects of high sediment temperature on the growth of some species, such as R. decussatus. Finally, recommendations for assessing climate risk and designing management actions for shellfisheries are given.

CLIMATE RISKS AND VULNERABILITY OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY OF THE CITY OF SKOPJE

Climate change is a global problem that challenges humanity. Global warming, which is expected to bring extreme weather events, exposes human health, ecological systems, and ultimately the economy to great risks. Although the economy affects climate change, climate change also affects the economy. The effects of climate change on the economy in the short term can be positive or negative, but in the long term there is a consensus that global GDP will on average experience a significant reduction depending on the intensity of global warming. In addition to the small direct impact through disruption of economic inputs, the indirect impact through the transmission mechanism of productivity and investments on GDP is complex.However, climate impacts are not expected to have an equal negative impact on all economies in the world, and the Republic of North Macedonia is in the group of counties less vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we will apply the SECAP methodology for assessment of climate risks and vulnerability of the local economy of the City of Skopje. For this purpose, we will do an in-depth analysis of the local economy through the sectoral approach. The City of Skopje is an administrative city, and the sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and construction, are marginal. An increase in the intensity of the extreme weather is expected, especially the increase in temperatures in all seasons with increased precipitation and flash floods. Therefore, an increase in climatic risks is expected in the local economy in the City of Skopje in relation to the current vulnerability. Аlthough some sectors would be negatively affected by climatic change, the general assessment is that the economy of the City of Skopje will remain moderately vulnerable to future climate risks. It is because of the expectations for strong adaptability of local businesses and change of business models according to the new economic conditions.

Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and vulnerability assessments

As the climate crisis continues to worsen, there is an increasing demand for scientific evidence from Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVA). We present 12 methodological advancements to the Impact Chain-based CRVA (IC-based CRVA) framework, which combines participatory and data-driven approaches to identify and measure climate risks in complex socio-ecological systems. The advancements improve the framework along five axes, including the existing workflow, stakeholder engagement, uncertainty management, socio-economic scenario modeling, and transboundary climate risk examination. Eleven case studies were conducted and evaluated to produce these advancements. Our paper addresses two key research questions: (a) How can the IC-based CRVA framework be methodologically advanced to produce more accurate and insightful results? and (b) How effectively can the framework be applied in research and policy domains that it was not initially designed for? We propose methodological advancements to capture dynamics between risk factors, to resolve contradictory worldviews, and to maintain consistency between Impact Chains across policy scales. We suggest using scenario-planning techniques and integrating uncertainties via Probability Density Functions and Reverse Geometric Aggregation. Our research examines the applicability of IC-based CRVAs to address transboundary climate risks and integrating macro-economic models to reflect possible future socio-economic exposure. Our findings demonstrate that the modular structure of IC-based CRVA allows for the integration of various methodological advancements, and further advancements are possible to better assess complex climate risks and improve adaptation decision-making.

Adapting to the Impacts Posed by Climate Change: Applying the Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) Framework in a Multi-Modal Transport System

Climate change has threatened the infrastructure, operation, policymaking, and other pivotal aspects of transport systems with the accelerating pace of extreme weather events. While a considerable amount of research and best practices have been conducted for transport adaptation to climate change impacts, there is still a wide gap in the systematic assessment of climate risks on all-round transport modes (i.e., road, rail, sea, and air) with a comprehensive review and a quantitative scientific framework. This study aimed to critically review studies on how the transport sector has adapted to the impacts posed by climate change since the dawn of the 21st century. To support climate risk assessment in comprehensive transport systems, we developed a Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) framework and applied it to the case of the British transport network. Focusing on a multi-modal transport system, this offers researchers and practitioners an invaluable overview of climate adaptation research with the latest tendency and empirical insights. Meanwhile, the developed CCRI framework elaborates a referable tool that enables decision-makers to employ objective data to realise quantitative risk analysis for rational transport adaptation planning.

A review of climatic impacts on water main deterioration

Watermains are both directly and indirectly affected by climatic conditions such as temperature and precipitation. Research has been conducted to understand and model the effects of climatic conditions on watermain breaks. However, review studies to map the knowledge development in this area, to identify key achievements and limitations of previous studies are missing, and are addressed in this study. This review uses a mixed systematic and scientometric analysis to establish the research trends, contributions, methods, and covariates employed by previous studies related to climatic impacts on watermain deterioration. Web of Science and Scopus database is primarily employed to identify 70 relevant studies on the subject matter. These studies have been mostly conducted by institutions based in Canada, USA, and Europe. There is a general lack of collaboration among different institutions conducting research in this area. Studies in the subject matter are published from 1982 onwards, however, significant number of studies per year can only be noticed from 2005 onwards. Previous studies have been mostly focused on the modelling of watermain failure and have used statistical methods, and data-driven and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches for failure modelling of watermains under climatic conditions. For testing and validation of research data, studies have employed correlation analysis, performance evaluation metrics, and descriptive statistics. Typically, climate-related variables used in studies include temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Reviewed studies have considered cold (66%), hot (31%), and dry (13%) climatic conditions. Studies have investigated watermains made of metal (56%), plastics (43%), and Concrete and Asbestos cement (31%). Future studies are recommended to consider Data-driven and AI approaches in research design; pay attention to watermains in climatically vulnerable and massively populated regions; and consider climate risk assessment and the impact of climate change and extreme weather conditions on watermains.

Climate-Risk Assessment Framework for Airports under Extreme Precipitation Events: Application to Selected Italian Case Studies

Extreme weather phenomena are increasing due to climate change and having a severe impact on critical infrastructure, including airports. In this context, conducting climate risk assessments is an essential step to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. In the present study, a climate-risk assessment framework is applied to evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation events for specific Italian airports: Malpensa, Bergamo, Linate, Fiumicino, Ciampino, Napoli, Catania, Palermo, and Cagliari. This analysis is based on the definition of risk as reported by Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC. The assessment of the climate hazard over the recent-past period (1981–2010) is evaluated through indicators developed from re-analysis data, using the Uncertainties in Ensemble of Regional Re-Analyses dataset are provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service. The expected climate variations are evaluated using an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the short- (2021–2050), medium- (2041–2070), and long-term future period (2071–2100), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The information related to exposure and vulnerability indicators are collected from official documents and website of selected airports, and are freely available. The final risk index provides elements allowing stakeholders to implement adaptation measures to increase their resilience.

Climate risk assessment of the Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima coastal Region (Morocco)

Coastal zones occupy a prominent position in the sustainable management perspective of Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima (TTA) region because they accommodate a majority of the region’s population and contribute to the economic wellbeing of local communities. High demographic and economic pressures associated to climatic and environmental factors increase and intensify the vulnerability of these coastal areas. The latter are severely affected by climate change implications in the course of time, which lead to damage and loss in coastal low-lying zones. In practice, the risks related to climate change, as coastal risks, are frequently addressed, and assessing coastal risk in the context of climate change is a research priority. The aim of this work is to evaluate the flooding risk of TTA coasts, taking into account the inundation level related to the conditions of extreme wave (return period of 100-year) and extreme sea level rise. We firstly defined the coastal hazard zone that corresponds to the maximum inundation level of 13 m for the whole area. We then applied a Coastal Risk Index application at the Local Scale (CRI-LS) methodology to calculate forcing, vulnerability, exposure and risk indices using nineteen physical, environmental and socioeconomical variables. Findings show that coastal hazard zone of Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima region is extremely exposed to coastal forcing. More than 50% of the hazard zones indicates highly vulnerable zones and highest exposure is generally focused on the most populated urban zones. In the light of this, the coastal risk mapping shows hotspot zones in terms of climate change-related coastal risks located at Tangier Bay, south of Tangier city, Fnideq and Martil coasts, Tetouan city and north of Ksar El Kbir city. This paper corresponds to a useful support that can help policy-makers in decision-making to quietly follow coastal planning and management processes and participate in preserving coastal areas for future generations, which support the sustainable development goals of Agenda 2030 started by the United Nations with the goal of eradicating all kinds of poverty.

A framework to assess multi-hazard physical climate risk for power generation projects from publicly-accessible sources

Demand for information about physical climate risk is growing, particularly for the power generation sector, given its size and pronounced exposure to climate hazards. However, quantifying physical climate risks for a large number of assets remains challenging. Here we introduce a scalable and transparent methodology that enables multi-hazard physical climate risk assessments for any thermal or hydro power generation project. The methodology relies on basic power plant type and geolocation data inputs, publicly-available climate datasets, and hazard- and technology-specific vulnerability factors, to translate hazard severity into generation losses. We apply the methodology to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s early 2021 thermal and hydro power generation portfolios of 80 assets. We show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, those 80 power plants could experience a 4.0-10.9 TWh loss in annual generation (or 1.87-5.07% of total annual maximum generation) by 2030 compared to its baseline losses of 0.70–0.87 TWh (or 0.33–0.41%). One of the largest drivers of the increased risk is rising water temperatures, which is currently overlooked by mainstream climate risk disclosure guidelines.

Analysing spatial patterns of climate change: Climate clusters, hotspots and analogues to support climate risk assessment and communication in Germany

The spatial visualization of current and future climate conditions is one key component for assessing related impacts and risks in a given territory. A suitable combination of statistical methods and visualisation techniques allows the creation of outputs that support the interpretation and understanding as well as communication of the complex climate analysis to a wider target audience. The present paper describes the adopted approaches to portray information about climate change in Germany until the end of the 21st century in meaningful maps with the aim to communicate it to the public as well as decision makers. In particular, the conducted analyses focused on the assessment of climate regions, climate hotspots and climate analogues. The maps showing the resulting spatial patterns 1) divide the country in seven climate clusters, 2) reveal different hotspot areas of climate change in terms of key indicators for the middle and the end of the century and 3) provide current and future climate shifts of German cities to analogue regions in Europe. Results are accompanied with recommendations and interpretation aids supporting the correct use for practical applications and communication purposes. The final map products resulting from these analyses and published in the frame of the Climate Impact and Risk Assessment for Germany 2021 were taken up by different national media outlets (print and audio), education experts as well as stakeholders, showing benefits and limitations of the visualisation choices.

Application of climate risk assessment framework for selected Italian airports: A focus on extreme temperature events

Due to increased extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, climate risk analysis has become an essential issue for all critical infrastructures, including airports. The aim of this paper is to apply a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme temperatures on several Italian airports: Malpensa, Linate, Bergamo, Ciampino, Fiumicino, Napoli, Catania, Palermo, and Cagliari. According to the risk definition recommended in the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC (2014), specific hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators were identified. The hazard indicators were calculated using the UERRA regional reanalysis for the observed period (1981–2010), and then their climate variations were evaluated by means an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the near (2021–2050), medium (2041–2070), and long-term future period (2071–2100), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Exposure and vulnerability data were collected from multiple sources, such as official airports documents or websites. The final risk index obtained from the combination of these three factors allowed us to identify which of the selected airports are probable to face the major impacts due to extreme temperature events. This paper provides the knowledge base on risk assessment on Italian airports, with the aim to support the stakeholders for the selection and implementation of appropriate adaptation strategies and measures in relation to extreme temperatures.

Perspectives by green financial instruments – a case study in the Hungarian banking sector during COVID-19

Recently, the management of the green financial sector has been widely influenced by global socio-economic concerns such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate, besides their environmental attitude, what opinions and experiences the affected stakeholders have about the sustainability-related processes in the Hungarian banking sector in the early 2020s. To assess this subject extensively, two questionnaire surveys were conducted in two consecutive years (2020/2021 and 2021/2022), involving 600 and 1,600 participants randomly chosen from banking databases, respectively. The results indicate that both residential and corporate participants have various but broadening knowledge of green financial instruments. Hungarian residential customers have pointed out the inconveniences of the most popular green loan product (Green Home Program), while there appears a distinct difference in green investment preferences between the two groups of respondents. Hungarian stakeholders are quite eco-conscious, and so are banks adopting sustainability and climate risk assessment actions, however, the implementations have much potential to exploit. Respondents also identify the energy crisis-related risks, while their trust in the banking system remains high even under volatile circumstances. These findings demonstrate that the Hungarian green banking sector has a high degree of crisis resistance with residential and corporate stakeholders behind giving trust and thereby the driving force toward the successful green transition.

Adaptability analysis of snow in the Zhangjiakou competition zone of the Beijing Olympic Winter Games for the next 30 years

Study regionZhangjiakou competition zone (ZJK-CZ) of the Beijing Olympic Winter Games. Study focusUnder the extreme uncertainty of future climate change scenarios, a system solution capable of snow depth forecasting is urgently needed for the sustainable use of Olympic Winter Games venues and the regular organization of winter sports in the post-Winter-Olympic era. This study predicts the snow depth distribution and changes in the ZJK-CZ of the Beijing Olympic Winter Games for the next 30 years utilizing the GBEHM (Geomorphology-Based Ecohydrological Model) model, together with CMIP6 climate forecast model data, and analyzes the operation and profitability of the ZJK-CZ in the post-Winter-Olympic era. New hydrological insights for the regionThis study developed a new integrated simulation methodology for the climate risk assessment of Olympic Winter Games venues in the context of future climate change. The percent bias of the snow depth simulated based on the new integrated model was found to be only 3 %. In the next 30 years, the ZJK-CZ will need to be replenished with at least 190 mm of artificial snow annually to meet the minimum standards for suitable winter sports days and requires an average of at least 49 days of artificially assisted snowmaking per year to ensure proper operation and profitability. This study is expected to provide a climate risk assessment for the construction and operation of winter sports venues.