Adaptability analysis of snow in the Zhangjiakou competition zone of the Beijing Olympic Winter Games for the next 30 years

Abstract

Study regionZhangjiakou competition zone (ZJK-CZ) of the Beijing Olympic Winter Games. Study focusUnder the extreme uncertainty of future climate change scenarios, a system solution capable of snow depth forecasting is urgently needed for the sustainable use of Olympic Winter Games venues and the regular organization of winter sports in the post-Winter-Olympic era. This study predicts the snow depth distribution and changes in the ZJK-CZ of the Beijing Olympic Winter Games for the next 30 years utilizing the GBEHM (Geomorphology-Based Ecohydrological Model) model, together with CMIP6 climate forecast model data, and analyzes the operation and profitability of the ZJK-CZ in the post-Winter-Olympic era. New hydrological insights for the regionThis study developed a new integrated simulation methodology for the climate risk assessment of Olympic Winter Games venues in the context of future climate change. The percent bias of the snow depth simulated based on the new integrated model was found to be only 3 %. In the next 30 years, the ZJK-CZ will need to be replenished with at least 190 mm of artificial snow annually to meet the minimum standards for suitable winter sports days and requires an average of at least 49 days of artificially assisted snowmaking per year to ensure proper operation and profitability. This study is expected to provide a climate risk assessment for the construction and operation of winter sports venues.