Asian Security Research Articles

No Longer Neutral? Shifts in Russian Policy towards Northeast Asia since 2014

ABSTRACT Russia’s aim to build a role as a neutral, independent player in Northeast Asia (NEA) is now under threat as a result of its regional policy choices since the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Moscow’s evolving position in the region can arguably be better understood in the light of the dynamic of the Sino-Russian partnership. The decline of Russian capacities, its growing partnership with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and NEA developments have exerted a unique impact on Moscow’s relations with regional stakeholders. As a result, Russia’s position as a neutral player in Northeast Asian security issues, including in the case of the Korean peninsula and China-Japan Senkaku/Diaoyu island dispute, is no longer tenable. Despite its weaker status, the declining power (Russia) has a specific strategic value to the rising power (PRC) in the short to medium term, thus requiring a more nuanced understanding of the behaviour and role of such powers in the international system.

Enhancing Food Security in an Era of Rising Fertilizer Prices: Evaluation of an Intervention Promoting Mungbean Adoption in Nepal

The improved food security in Asia that has facilitated the region’s development progress depends on nitrogenous fertilizers. Rising prices and shortages of imported fertilizer have prompted countries to explore alternative sources of crop nitrogen, including diversification with legumes. We evaluate an intervention in Nepal that promoted mungbean adoption. Our doubly robust impact evaluation approach accounts for nonrandom patterns of adoption related to livestock rearing, participation in agricultural cooperatives and training, and greater irrigated land use. Adopters growing mungbean for the 2-year study period showed an average increase of 20 kilograms (kg) in their annual consumption of mungbean-based foods, applied almost 40[Formula: see text]kg per hectare (ha) less fertilizers to their rice crops, and obtained an additional 280[Formula: see text]kg in rice yield per ha. Hence, agricultural innovations that use legumes such as mungbean can help promote sustainable intensification of cereal-based production systems, while enhancing food security and reducing balance-of-payments issues for the countries dependent on fertilizer imports.

THEORY AND PRACTICE OF REGIONAL SECURITY: UZBEKISTAN IS THE LEVER OF REGIONAL SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

The article examines certain issues regarding the theory and practice of regional security. The concepts of region and regional security are defined and their main aspects are touched upon. As a result of the analysis of theoretical and practical materials, the author comes to the conclusion about the importance of regions and subjects of international law, including Uzbekistan, in ensuring regional security in Central Asia.

The US Strategic Shifts Necessary For Stability in the Middle East

AbstractThe combination of the October 7 attacks and Israel's retaliation in the Gaza Strip has brought the Middle East closer than ever to all‐out war. While analysts focus on the long‐running enmity between Tel Aviv and Tehran, this article contends that the region can move toward stability only with changes in US policy, especially toward Iran. Ending 40 years of hostile relations would not only help reduce the likelihood of a prolonged Israel‐Iran war but also create the conditions necessary to resolve crises in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. The key is to revive the nuclear negotiations and move to a deal that can tamp down rivalries that threaten West Asian security. The author, who as an Iranian official participated in early rounds of nuclear talks in the early 2000s, analyzes the US‐Iran rivalry, recommends how to move toward a nuclear‐free region, and makes recommendations for shifts in American strategy.

Tropospheric ozone pollution: Implication for food security and crop nutrition in South Asia

The study was conducted on ambient ozone (O3), the most phyto-toxic air pollutant, and its effects on the growth and quality of okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) and peas (Pisum sativaum) grown in Northern Pakistan during the summer and winter of 2018. Okra was subjected to ambient O3 levels ranging from 43 to 63 ppb during the summer, with a mean O3 concentration of 55 ppb, while peas experienced lower winter concentrations of 15–25 ppb, with a mean O3 concentration of 19 ppb. The results indicated significant impacts on the growth and nutritional quality of crops, especially okra. Anti-ozonant ethylene diurea (EDU) was used for soil drenching to protect okra and green peas from O3 damage. Okra showed notable enhancements of 20%, 20%, 29%, and 13% in ash, protein, fiber, and non-fiber carbohydrates (NFE), respectively. Increase in plant height, leaf numbers, pod length, and dry weight was observed in EDU-treated okra plants. Conversely, peas exhibited less variation, although melioration was observed in plant height, pod numbers, length, and weight with EDU treatment. It was concluded that the concentration of ambient O3 in Peshawar is toxic enough to cause significant damage to crop growth and production. The stark difference in O3 impact during different seasons suggests that higher summer concentrations could severely compromise crop quality. This elicits significant concerns regarding food security in South Asia, especially for summer crops that can jeopardize future food security. It is recommended that further research be conducted on the effects of O3 on other regional crops to assess fully its implications for agricultural sustainability in the area.

A chromosome-level genome assembly of the legume pod borer, Maruca vitrata Fabricius (Lepidoptera: Crambidae)

Maruca vitrata, a significant pest of legumes, impacts food security in Asia and Africa. This study presents a high-quality genome assembly of M. vitrata, utilizing advanced sequencing technologies including Nanopore long-read, MGI short-read, and Hi-C. The genome, totaling 482.3 Mb with a contig N50 of 2.91 Mb, features 41.58% repetitive sequences and encompasses 13,320 protein-coding genes. We performed comparative genomic analyses to affirm the accuracy and completeness of the protein sequences assembled, ensuring the assembly’s integrity. Additionally, the annotation of 83 Cytochrome P450 (CYP) genes further confirms the comprehensive nature of the genome assembly and its annotations. This genome assembly not only deepens our understanding of M. vitrata biology but also supports the development of sustainable pest management strategies. This research highlights the importance of genomics in advancing sustainable agricultural solutions through innovative pest management approaches.

Different sensitivity of postglacial vegetation to climate and human disturbance between Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding regions

Characterizing the ecosystems' response to environmental changes on Tibetan Plateau (TP), as well as elucidating the regional disparities of these changes across the plateau's surface and its neighboring regions, holds significance for safeguarding the ecological security of Asia. Here, an improved pollen-based biomization procedure, incorporating weighted taxa, was conducted to illustrate the spatial and temporal differences of vegetation changes in TP, Xinjiang and southwestern China over the past 21,000 years. Results showed that the vegetation changes in TP and Xinjiang were characterized by alternations among herbaceous biomes, while the southwestern China were featured by changes among various woody biomes. Asynchronous vegetation change rates (ROCs) were discovered among TP, Xinjiang and southwestern China. The ROCs in TP were generally low during the Last Glacial Maximum but rose abruptly and peaked in the late deglacial period, whereas Xinjiang and southwestern China had high and increasing ROCs during Holocene. Those trajectories might relate to different sensitivities of vegetation to climate change and human disturbances. Habitat limitation on TP should be pretty intense during glacial period, leading to rapid vegetation establishment after glacier retreat. While in Xinjiang, water availability was the most obvious limitation, making the vegetation change sensitive to moisture and atmospheric CO2 variations. The forest in Yunnan behaved the most stability but was characterized by vertical migration responding to deglacial warming. Holocene acceleration of ROCs aligned with intensified human activities in Xinjiang and southwestern China. To sum up, environmental conditions have been always important in determining post glacial vegetation changes in west China, but the ROCs were asynchronous due to different sensitivities of vegetation to climate change and human activity. Although the plateau's vegetation was quite stable during Holocene, the plateau terrestrial ecosystem may subject to increasing risk under accelerating global warming and intensifying human activities.

Challenges Facing the ASEAN Political and Security Community due to the 2021 Myanmar Military Coup: The Role of ASEAN Centrality

Challenges Facing the ASEAN Political and Security Community due to the 2021 Myanmar Military Coup: The Role of ASEAN Centrality

Human-induced warming accelerates local evapotranspiration and precipitation recycling over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau faces changing precipitation and environmental conditions affecting alpine ecosystems and downstream freshwater sustainability. While aerosol influence has been highlighted, how human-induced greenhouse warming impacts the plateau’s moisture recycling remains unclear. Here we show that the Tibetan Plateau’s recent precipitation changes result from enhanced precipitation recycling and moisture convergence that offset the decline in monsoon- and westerly-associated moisture transport based on 40-year Lagrangian simulations and water budget analyses. Local evapotranspiration is observed to increase faster in percentage than precipitation, a trend expected to continue in future warming scenarios according to climate projections. Greenhouse gas emission causes widespread wetting while weakening the southerly monsoons across the Himalayas, heightening the sensitivity of precipitation to evapotranspiration and thereby local land surface changes. This trend exacerbates vulnerability in the water cycle of high mountain Asia, calling for proactive management to address potential risks and ensure future water and food security in Asia.

Observed changes in the climate and snow dynamics of the Third Pole

The Third Pole (TP) is the world’s largest highland and has one of the biggest reservoirs of glacier ice mass and snow cover on the Earth. Three major Asian rivers (the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra) are nourished by the melting of glaciers and snow in Central Himalaya, which are inevitable for the socioeconomic sustainability and water security of South Asia. Here, we investigate the long-term (1980–2020) changes in snow depth and precipitation in TP, where major precipitation occurs in the form of rainfall in summer, and snowfall in winter and spring. The seasonal mean snow depth is deep (≥1 m) in winter and shallow (≤0.2 m) in summer. The average snowmelt and snow water equivalent are higher in the central and western Himalaya and Karakoram ranges in spring, which are the regions with most glaciers in TP. There is a significant positive trend in total precipitation, about 0.01–0.03 mm d−1 yr−1 in the central and eastern TP during the South Asian Summer Monsoon for the 1980–2020 period. Snowmelt is also increasing (>0.5 × 10−3 mm yr−1) in the western Himalaya during spring, which is consistent with the temperature rise (0.04–0.06 °C yr−1) there. In addition, there is a notable increase in the annual mean glacier melt (here, the water equivalent thickness) in TP (−1 to −5 cm w.e. yr−1), with its highest values in the eastern and central Himalaya (−3 to −5 cm w.e. yr−1), as estimated for the period 2003–2020. On top of these, by the end of the 21st century, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections show that there would be a significant decrease in snow depth and an increase in temperature of TP in all shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Henceforth, the increasing trend in temperature and melting of snow/glaciers in TP would be a serious threat to the regional climate, water security and livelihood of the people of South Asia.

UZBEKISTAN’S STRATEGIC APPROACHES OF TO THE SHANGHAIS COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: EXPLORING OPPORTUNITIES FOR “MIDDLE POWER” DIPLOMACY

The article studies the key factors (security, geopolitics, economy) that directly impact the strategy of the Republic of Uzbekistan towards the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). It is revealed that this strategy always has been based on following priorities: (1) ensuring national and regional security in Central Asia (2) preserving independence in foreign policy (3) balancing the interests of major powers in Central Asia (4) preventing hegemony of a single state or a group of states within the SCO (5) using the SCO to implement Uzbekistan's priorities in trade, economy and transport interconnectivity. Due to the current transformation of the SCO and intensification of geopolitical competition among its major members the necessity of applying middle-power diplomacy within the Organization has been identified. Uzbekistan's potential to conduct «middle power diplomacy" in the SCO has been justified.

Human-induced climate change has decreased wheat production in northern Kazakhstan

Northern Kazakhstan is a major wheat exporter, contributing to food security in Central Asia and beyond. However, wheat yields fluctuate and low-producing years occur frequently. It is currently unclear to what extent human-induced climate change contributes to this. The most severe low-producing year in this century was in 2010, which had severe consequences for the food security of wheat-importing countries. Here, we present a climate impact attribution study that quantifies the impact of human-induced climate change on the average wheat production and associated economic revenues in northern Kazakhstan in the 21st century and on the likelihood of a low-production year like 2010. The study uses bias-adjusted counterfactual and factual climate model data from two large ensembles of latest-generation climate models as input to a statistical subnational yield model. We consider the climate data and the yield model as fit for purpose as first, the factual climate simulations represent the observations, second, the out-of-sample validation of the yield model performs reasonably well with a mean R 2 of 0.54, and third, the results are robust under the performed sensitivity tests. Human-induced climate change has had a critical impact on wheat production, specifically through increases in daily-minimum temperatures and extreme heat. This has resulted in a decrease in yields during 2000–2019 by approximately 6.2%–8.2% (uncertainty range of two climate models) and an increased likelihood of the 2010 low-production event by 1.5–4.7 times (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). During 2000–2019, human-induced climate change caused economic losses estimated at between 96 and 180 million USD per year (10th to 90th percentile uncertainty range covering both climate models). These results highlight the necessity for ambitious global mitigation efforts and measures to adapt wheat production to increasing temperatures, ensuring regional and global food security.

Russia’s Central Asian Security Policy in the Putin Era: Tools for Intervention and Control “We do not want a second Afghanistan in Central Asia. Therefore, we will follow a very careful policy.” Vladimir Putin

Central Asia has been a strategically important region that Russia has dominated or always wanted to dominate throughout history. Therefore, we can see this in the Soviet Union period or in Russia’s policies after the 1990s. Especially after 2000, with Vladimir Putin becoming the President of Russia, policies on this region gained vitality in every field. One of the most important of these dimensions is the military dimension. In this context, we can cite the Collective Security Treaty Organization and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was formed with the participation of other states related to the region within the scope of developing relations with Russia, Central Asia, and which it is trying to be effective. On the other hand, we can see that Russia is trying to extend the terms of use of the military bases left from the Soviet Union in the region and to establish new military bases. Therefore, we can evaluate all these approaches of Russia within the scope of its unwillingness to lose its influence and power in the region and its unwillingness to allow ‘foreign’ forces to intervene in the region.

Enhancing Food Security and Nutrition in Africa and Asia through High-Quality Fish Composition Data – the EAF Nansen Programme

Enhancing Food Security and Nutrition in Africa and Asia through High-Quality Fish Composition Data – the EAF Nansen Programme

Military Application and Integration of AI: Implications for South Asian Security Paradigm

Military Application and Integration of AI: Implications for South Asian Security Paradigm

Exploring the Dynamics of Pak-US Relations in Post 9/11 Era: Military Aid, Nuclear Proliferation and Regional Politics

Throughout history, Pakistan and the United States have experienced a complex and evolving relationship. This relationship has witnessed periods of cooperation, strain, and scrutiny, particularly concerning formal engagement, financial collaboration, military ties, and regional security matters. This study is critical because it illustrates the evolving geopolitical landscape by revealing how military aid and nuclear concerns have affected South Asian security. By highlighting strategic interactions between global powers and regional entities, this research contributes to the international relations discourse. To assess the state of US-Pakistan relations post-9/11, this study investigates counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and regional geopolitics. It examines how Pakistan's counterterrorism operations and regional security are influenced by US military support, as well as the impact of regional geopolitics on the partnership. Employing mixed methods research, the study reveals diverse perspectives on the impact of aid, including both cooperation and concerns regarding conditional assistance. Regional dynamics, such as Afghanistan's stability and India-Pakistan tensions, emerge as critical factors influencing the partnership's evolution. Challenges stemming from divergent interests and perceptions are also highlighted. Furthermore, the quantitative aspect indicates that gender influences the outcome variable, suggesting potential behavioral or attitudinal differences between men and women regarding the studied environment.

Unstable State of Hydrologic Regime and Grain Yields in Northern Kazakhstan Estimated with Tree-Ring Proxies

Changes in the hydrologic regime impose great challenges for grain production. We investigated the impact of dry and wet extremes on the recent losses of crops in Severo-Kazakhstanskaya Oblast (SKO), where 25% of Kazakhstan’s wheat is produced. We reconstructed the Palmer Drought Severity Index (June–August PDSI) and average grain yields (with an explained variance of 48% and 44%, respectively) using five tree ring width chronologies. The extended history of the moisture variability and yields of spring wheat, oats, and barley shows the strong impact of hydrology, rather than the heat, on the grain production. We defined three distinctive hydrologic regimes in SKO: (1) 1886–1942, (2) 1943–1977, (3) 1978–2023. The early regime had fewer drought events, including some that covered a single year. Their duration increased up to 3 years in the second period. The latest regime is an extreme mode of hydrologic variability with events abruptly switching from extremely dry to extremely wet conditions (called “whiplash”). The 21st century regime signifies that the intensified and prolonged decade-long drought transitioned into pluvial condition. The new regime created sizable instability for grain producers. This crop yield reconstruction denotes the potential of the tree-ring proxy for understanding the impact of climate change on the agriculture and food security of Central Asia.

Unlikely Alliances: How the Wars in Karabakh And Gaza Shape Northwest Asian Security

AbstractThis study analyzes how ongoing conflicts in the Levant and the post‐Soviet South Caucasus have upset the balance of relationships among Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Israel, Turkey, and Russia—and how this could escalate into a major, cross‐regional war. Azerbaijan's military victories of 2020 and 2023 over the Armenia‐occupied, separatist republic of Nagorno‐Karabakh have antagonized Iran, which has seen these gains, coupled with Baku's increasingly revanchist rhetoric, as a major threat to regional security. With Armenia left on its own by its Russian ally, and with Turkey's and Israel's backing of Azerbaijan, the Gaza war has driven Iran to see Baku as a dangerous “Israeli asset.” However, the Palestine conflict has also sparked a rift between Turkey and Israel, throwing into question Baku's strength. If the militarist rhetoric of Azerbaijani elites leads the state to invade its weakened neighbor Armenia, this will increase the potential for a military confrontation between the two Shiite nations of Azerbaijan and Iran, with Armenia, Turkey, Israel, and Russia likely to be dragged in.

East Asian Security Architecture in the Geopolitical Competition Between China and the United States: Impacts and Adjustments

In the context of globalization, the rivalry between China and the United States has become a key factor shaping the regional security landscape. In this paper, the author investigates the profound impact and potential adjustment strategies of the geopolitical competition between China and the United States on the security architecture of East Asia. This paper first outlines the complexity of Sino-U.S. competition and its profound challenges in East Asia. The problem statement clarifies the core issue addressed in this study: how to address the multiple pressures on regional security arising from Sino-U.S. competition. The research employs a comprehensive approach, including a literature review and case analysis, to thoroughly understand the competition's multidimensional effects. Findings reveal that Sino-U.S. competition has significantly altered the security landscape in East Asia, spanning military, political, and economic domains. In conclusion, the paper summarizes key discoveries and emphasizes the urgency of adjusting the East Asian security framework. It proposes recommendations to guide regional stakeholders in preparing for the new geopolitical reality, ensuring adaptability to and mitigation of uncertainties from Sino-U.S. competition. These suggestions aim to provide powerful insights for decision-makers, fostering practical and effective policy adjustments in response to evolving circumstances.

Indonesia's Humanitarian Diplomacy Contribution to ASEAN Security Stability through the Provision of Cyclone Mocha Disaster Relief in Myanmar

Indonesia's Humanitarian Diplomacy Contribution to ASEAN Security Stability through the Provision of Cyclone Mocha Disaster Relief in Myanmar