Asian Security Research Articles

Geopolitical rivalry between the USA and China for transport corridors in Central Asia and problems of regional security

The gradual development of international transport corridors is the core of the political, economic, integration, modernization, spiritual, and cultural development of all countries of modernity. The transport industry, which is an effective means of transporting goods, is becoming an essential link in the world economy and the main instrument of the globalization process. In this regard, consideration of aspects of the development of international transport corridors is a vital and high-priority problem for research. In addition to playing the role of a geopolitically important link in the world, the Central Asian region is becoming the center of the intersection of international transport corridors. A crucial factor influencing national and regional security is the geopolitical rivalry of the key actors of world politics in Central Asia. This trend is associated with the huge reserves of oil and gas, uranium, as well as the significance of the strategic position of the region as a linkage between the markets of Europe and Asia. Conflicts arising from the desire of the leading actors of world politics to establish control over international transport corridors bring to the agenda the problem of the security of the region through which these corridors pass. The primary task in the era of globalization for the states of Central Asia located along the “Great Silk Road” is to ensure regional security, including the national one. This scientific article considers the influence of the “international transport corridors” factor on the regional security of Central Asia, analyzes the geopolitical problems of transport corridors, the role of transport projects for the revival of the Silk Road initiated by the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, and the impact of geopolitical rivalry between the two countries on the regional security of Central Asia.

Dynamic Role of the United Nations Security Council to Maintain Peace and Security in Asia Especially in Afghanistan

Dynamic Role of the United Nations Security Council to Maintain Peace and Security in Asia Especially in Afghanistan

Introduction: Partnership or Polarization? Southeast Asian Security between India and China

Introduction: Partnership or Polarization? Southeast Asian Security between India and China

Global Food Security and Ukraine’s Contribution to Its Provision

The aim of the article is to study the essence of global food security and assess Ukraine’s contribution to its provision. The essence of the concept of “global food security” is clarified. The tasks of specialized institutions dealing with the problem of global food security are described. Ukraine’s participation in the FAO and the UN World Food Security Committee has been clarified. It has been established that the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) is used to assess food security around the world, which includes four components: food affordability, food affordability, food quality, safety an d security, natural resources and sustainability. Ukraine’s contribution to the world food market has been studied. The structure of the total merchandise exports of Ukraine was analyzed, it was found that the share of agri-food products is 40.6%, and the share of plant products is 22.8%. Ukraine’s place in world food exports is specifi ed, the geographical structure of food exports is considered. Ukraine’s contribution to food security in Africa and Asia is analyzed. The dynamics of Ukrainian grain exports to the world market has been studied. The risks and threats to global food security related to the Russian armed invasion of Ukraine are described. The USDA forecast for grain exports from Ukraine is given. The conclusion is made about the need to protect and support the production of agricultural products in Ukraine under martial law.

Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India Gas Pipeline and Foreign Policy of Pakistan

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan India gas pipeline project is a component of an extensive plan to develop Asia’s interconnected energy systems. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline has a significant impact on energy security and regional integration in South Asia. This gas pipeline project can address the growing energy demand of the region. However, due to the volatility in the political landscape of South Asia and the complexity of large-scale energy projects, the project is facing a number of critical challenges that need the focus of the regional partners and stakeholders. The limited literature on the TAP gas pipeline project has focused on security hurdles to the projects from the member countries’ perspective. The research study found that the main hurdle to executing the TAP gas pipeline project in Pakistan is the country’s internal issues, a lack of investments, lack of financial resources, international pressure, the country’s regional issues and the dynamics of changing regional situations. The research study is proposed to be useful for policymakers to evaluate the implication of energy import dependency and to frame foreign policy.

REGIONAL SECURITY COMPLEX THEORY AND SOFT POWER: MAPPING CHINA’S ENGAGEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN

The paramount interest of China in Afghanistan seems to ensure peace and stability in the region. Beijing’s soft power approach towards Afghanistan through its neutral stance and minimum involvement in domestic politics within Afghanistan proved to be an advantage in cementing China’s role in Afghanistan as a credible mediator. China extends its influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, where the importance of CPEC is interlinked with the development of China’s western sector. China aims to harness the Afghan territory for its transit routes because Afghanistan bridges the connectivity gap between Central Asia and West Asia. This paper highlights that the current interests of China in Afghanistan are multiple. China is utilizing all the soft power elements to promote and expand the areas of activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to South Asia because stability in Afghanistan cannot be achieved solely. Understanding Regional Security Complex Theory and Soft Power can encapsulate China’s engagement in Afghanistan. It has made a considerable effort by highlighting regional complexities on various multilateral fronts like China-Pakistan-Afghanistan, China-Russia-Afghanistan, and China-Russia-Pakistan-Iran. This study develops an analytical framework of South Asian security from the regional point of view and analyses external powers' role in the transition of regional security complexes. Bibliography Entry Tahir, Mariam. 2022. "Regional Security Complex Theory and Soft Power: Mapping China’s Engagement in Afghanistan." Margalla Papers 26 (2): 39-48.

When Unipolarity Dies: The Russo-Ukrainian War, the End of the Neoliberal Order and Asian Security in the 2020s

When Unipolarity Dies: The Russo-Ukrainian War, the End of the Neoliberal Order and Asian Security in the 2020s

Global and Regional Implications of Sino-Indian Rivalry: A Focus on the Strategic and Economic Dimensions

The paper makes an effort to answer two key questions. To begin, what strategic and economic implications does the Sino-Indian conflict have? Second, what are the global and regional trends in Sino-India conflict in the future? Even though there is a lot of literature on Sino-Indian ties and conflict, there’s much less academic concentration on the implications of Sino-Indian conflict, especially in the hard power dimension. The paper observes that in international and regional affairs, the Sino-Indian competition is not a new phenomenon. The dispute between India and China has posed significant geostrategic challenges to regional peace and security in Asia in recent years. The paper further points out that the geopolitical rivalry between India and China would likely enhance China's naval presence in the Indian Ocean region to challenge India and its western allies. In terms of the economic dimension, India and its western allies, such as the United States and Japan, can develop new supply chains in IOR in order to diminish China's reliance. It argues that while the future of the Sino-Indian conflict may bring great competition rather than cooperation, the reality of the economic system and transnational developments may enable India and China to expand their economic collaboration.

Physicochemical characteristics of lodging susceptibility of rice cultivars in response to ozone exposure

High tropospheric ozone concentrations reduce rice yield and grain quality, which imposes a serious threat to food security in Asia. This study aimed at determining the effect of ozone on rice lodging, an unpredictable constraint for achieving high yield and good quality in rice production under climate change. Two rice cultivars with different ozone sensitivity were exposed to ozone concentration of 80 ppb (8 h per day) and control conditions (13 ppb) in natural-light fumigation chambers from tillering to maturity. The pushing resistance of intact plants and the lodging-related culm traits were examined. Ozone exposure significantly decreased the in-situ pushing resistance of intact plant or single culm in the ozone-sensitive cultivar YD6, but had no effects in the ozone-tolerant cultivar WYJ27. Ozone reduced breaking resistance and bending moment to a similar magnitude, resulting in no change of lodging index when averaged across all rice basal internodes. In general, WYJ27 was less responsive to ozone than YD6. Negative ozone effects on lodging-related culm traits of YD6 included reductions in the internode dry weight as well as the dry weight per unit internode length, decreases in internode diameter, cross section area and culm wall thickness of basal internodes, and reduced concentrations of soluble sugar and starch. Correlation analysis indicated that ozone-induced decrease in culm strength of YD6 was mainly attributed to the thinner internodes and the smaller culm density due to less nonstructural carbohydrate deposition. The ozone-sensitivity of YD6 was confirmed by its high yield reduction of 25 %, caused by an 11 % decrease in spikelet number per panicle and a 10 % decrease in fulfilled grain weight. The results suggested that rice ozone sensitivity in yield was in consistent with that in stem strength, which could result in no change of lodging index under greenhouse conditions. The realistic lodging susceptibility of these cultivars in response to ozone pollution in open paddy fields, where rice was often subjected to wind and rain during ripening stage, needs further investigation.

Does institutional quality affect the impact of public agricultural spending on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia?

Due to declining or stagnating agricultural productivity and rising food insecurity, African countries agreed to dedicate ten percent of public spending to agriculture under the Maputo and Malabo declarations in 2003 and 2014, respectively. Similarly, Asian countries increased spending on agriculture via input subsidies for crop production, greater mechanisation, and research and development funds. These spending increases are happening in countries with varying levels of institutional quality, and hence, differences in observed outcomes. Using cereal prodution as proxy for the availability dimension of food security, we conduct a comprehensive empirical assessment of the impact of public agricultural spending on food security under heterogeneous institutional quality regimes. We estimate fixed effects models with robust standard errors using an unbalanced panel of 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia over 22 years. The preponderance of evidence suggests that institutional quality plays a significant mediating role on the impact of public agricultural spending on food security. Overall, the magnitude of change in cereal production due to public agricultural spending is larger for countries with higher institutional quality than for those with lower institutional quality. While public investment in agriculture enhances food security, its effectiveness is predicated on improvements in the quality of public institutions. High quality public institutions protect private physical and intellectual property and guide prudent use of public resources.

Effects of drought and climate factors on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia from 1982 to 2020

Ecological security and ecosystem stability in Central Asia depend heavily on the local vegetation. Vegetation dynamics and the response and hysteresis relationships to climate factors and drought on multiple scales over long time series in the region still need to be further explored. Using the net primary productivity (NPP) values as the vegetation change index of interest, in this study, we analyzed vegetation dynamics in Central Asia from 1982 to 2020 and assessed the responses and time lags of vegetation to climate factors and drought. The results showed that NPP gradually decreased from north to south and from east to west. Vegetation was distributed along both sides of the mountains. The temperatures rose from northeast to southwest, while precipitation gradually increased from southwest to northeast. The proportion of dry and wet years was as follows: normal (56.41%) > slightly dry (28.2%) > slightly humid (15.39%). Precipitation and drought conditions were positively correlated with NPP during the growing season, while temperature was negatively correlated with NPP. Increased spring temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions positively affected vegetation, while sustained summer temperature resulted in suppressed vegetation growth. Autumn vegetation was positively affected by temperature and drought, and precipitation was negatively correlated with autumn vegetation. Increasing winter temperatures promoted vegetation growth. The time lag between NPP and temperature gradually increased from northeast to southwest, and the time lag between NPP and precipitation gradually increased from south to north. Spring temperatures had the greatest beneficial impact on forestlands; summer climatic factors and drought had little effect on shrublands; the autumn climate exhibited small differences in its influence of each plant type; and winter temperatures had the greatest positive effect on grasslands. No time lag effect was found between any of the four vegetation types and precipitation. A one-month lag was found between cultivated lands and temperature; a two-month lag was found between forestlands and temperature; and a one-month lag was found between forestlands and drought and between shrublands and drought. The results can provide a scientific foundation for the sustainable development and management of ecosystems.

The hard school of amphibious warfare: examining the lessons of the 20th century’s major amphibious campaigns for contemporary Chinese strategy

ABSTRACT Increasing tensions across the Taiwan Strait have prompted many strategists to debate the nature of China’s amphibious warfare capabilities. While it is often noted that Beijing’s armed forces lack major, recent experience in that domain, this research reveals that Chinese strategists have undertaken intensive and systematic investigation of foreign experiences, including with respect to the most classic cases, such as the Normandy invasion. This study represents a first attempt to survey such Chinese strategic writings, in an effort to better understand the lessons that Chinese strategists take from these foreign campaigns. Themes that emerge from this Chinese literature include an emphasis on undersea warfare capabilities as a critical enabler for amphibious invasion, but an even greater prominence for air supremacy. The most persistent theme in this Chinese literature surrounds intelligence preparation, deception and, above all, surprise. Such findings have important policy implications for Asian security.

Climate adaptive rice planting strategies diverge across environmental gradients in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

Abstract The timing of rice planting has a profound influence on the productivity of the rice-wheat cropping pattern in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), a system that provides the foundation for food security in South Asia. Nevertheless, strategies for adaptive rice planting in a rapidly changing climate are not well established. In this ex-ante analysis, regional gridded crop model simulations are deployed to investigate the impact of different rice planting strategies on system level productivity, resilience, and environmental benefits. Our results suggest that synchronizing rice planting dates with the monsoon onset substantially outperforms farmer practice (+41%) and static state recommendations in the Eastern IGP. However, planting long-duration rice with the monsoon onset is ineffective in the Northwestern IGP since the later arrival of the monsoon increases the probability of cold damage to rice and terminal heat stress in wheat. Here, fixed planting dates (+12.5%) or planting medium duration varieties at monsoon onset (+18%) performed best. We conclude that resilient and productive rice planting strategies must account for interannual weather variability and divergent climate conditions across sub-regions in the IGP.

Between the Regional and the National Level: East Asian Security Dynamics and Abe's Legacy on Japan's Civil-Military Relations

Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began his second term in office in 2012, there have been significant changes in the position of the Japanese military in the country's hierarchy. The change that was occurred almost simultaneously with the increasing threat in the East Asian region since the end of the Cold War, made as a pretext by PM Abe to reform Japan's defence structure. Based on the two factors, this study seeks to find out how the influence of the pattern of relations between countries in the East Asian security complex can affect the pattern of Japanese civil-military relations. This effort was carried out through the framework of the Huntingtonian civil-military relationship, which was concerned with civil ideology, formal and informal influences, and forms of civil control within the state, supported by the complex concept of security from the Copenhagen School which was concerned with patterns of relations and balance of power. It was found that the increasing instability of the East Asian security complex had prompted PM Abe's Japanese decision-makers to change their civil-military relations, either directly from the perception of the political elites themselves, or indirectly through encouragement from the United States. An increase in regional instability itself will encourage the state to participate in increasing military power, including by making changes to its civil-military relations so that defence policies are more targeted in order to ensure their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Chapter Sixteen: The security of north-east Asia: part I

Strategic links between Japan and Europe during the Cold War were limited. During this period the IISS helped bridge the gap between the two, exposing its membership base to the international affairs of Asia and Japan and providing Japanses scholars, strategists and diplomats with a platform from which to amplify their voices in the West. Analyses by these experts often appeared in IISS publications, but the Institute also gained key insights through its well-established conferences and lecture series. These initiatives illuminated Japanese strategic thinking and perspectives on contemporary critical issues in Japan’s and Asia’s foreign, security and defence policy.This Adelphi book, through its collection of earlier analysis, helps the reader to understand the evolution of Japanese strategic thought from the 1960s until today, and shines a light on the continuities and changes in this thinking. New, original analysis of the material seeks to identify areas where such thinking was prescient and remains relevant to the contemporary strategic environment, and other areas where predictions failed or assumptions were proved wrong. These new essays were also informed by interviews of Japanese senior scholars and diplomats who spent time with the IISS. This book seeks to frame, educate and guide strategic thinking on the most pressing issues of today, both in and outside Japan and Asia, and will be of great interest to analysts, practitioners and students of international affairs.

Strategic analysis of growing Chinese threat to India’s security in South Asia

Strategic analysis of growing Chinese threat to India’s security in South Asia

Assessing water security in Central Asia through a Delphi method and a clustering analysis

The accessibility to freshwater sources and even allocation among different uses has become one of the most challenging sustainability aspects, especially in developing and transition economies, where a rapid increase in water consumption and poor management practices are more frequent. Water security has been adopted as a relatively new concept to encompass the relevant dimensions for the sustainable management of freshwater resources. Still, water security remains a rather abstract notion without well-established and measurable indicators. Central Asia (CA) is a region where water security was prioritized after the Soviet dissolution in 1991; however, several socio-economic, environmental, and transboundary aspects hinder establishing a common understanding. In this study, we have attempted to synopsize the concept of water security in CA as perceived by the views of water professionals with experience and expertise in the region. We applied a Delphi method and analyzed its outcome with clustering and regression analysis to better comprehend the agreement rate among water professionals on critical aspects of water security in the CA region. Our devised methodology can quantify the general agreement rate among professionals and assess the behavioural trends for iterative Delphi rounds. The findings suggest that the economic dimension of water security in CA is the ultimate priority for nearly all water professionals, while the national priorities for each CA county are not identical. The study anticipates identifying the elements needed for a commonly agreed water security framework in CA and offering methodological insights for the assessment of socio-ecological challenges.

Russian-Chinese cooperation and competition in Afghanistan and its implications for Central Asia

Background: This paper aims to explore current and perspective trends of relations between Russia and China in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It also analyzes whether the withdrawal of the U.S. and the subsequent Taliban takeover helped—and continues to help—strengthen the two powers' positions in the region and what kind of challenges and benefits they face. The paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power added to Russia and China's benefits in the region. Methods: The research uses content analysis regarding official documents, political and military elite speeches, interviews, and reports to explain Russia and China’s official positions and policies regarding Afghanistan and Central Asia. Relations between the two powers as regards Afghanistan and Central Asia are comparatively analyzed. The paper uses the neorealist approach, which is fit for explaining relations between Russia and China in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Results: After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, regional security is now the business of the regional powers, mainly China and Russia. Now they should bear the responsibilities and share the burdens. There is probably more ground for competition after eliminating the threats in Afghanistan and especially in Central Asia for Moscow and Beijing. However, Russia and China will continue to try to align their interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia, especially if their relations with U.S. remain at the current level or worsen in the coming years. Conclusions: Based on the findings, this paper argues that, on the one hand, Russia and China continue to try to take advantage of the instability in the region by stepping up their security and economic influences in Central Asia. However, their stabilizing efforts in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of the U.S., ironically may increase competition between China and Russia.

Impact of climate change on agricultural production; Issues, challenges, and opportunities in Asia

Agricultural production is under threat due to climate change in food insecure regions, especially in Asian countries. Various climate-driven extremes, i.e., drought, heat waves, erratic and intense rainfall patterns, storms, floods, and emerging insect pests have adversely affected the livelihood of the farmers. Future climatic predictions showed a significant increase in temperature, and erratic rainfall with higher intensity while variability exists in climatic patterns for climate extremes prediction. For mid-century (2040-2069), it is projected that there will be a rise of 2.8°C in maximum temperature and a 2.2°C in minimum temperature in Pakistan. To respond to the adverse effects of climate change scenarios, there is a need to optimize the climate-smart and resilient agricultural practices and technology for sustainable productivity. Therefore, a case study was carried out to quantify climate change effects on rice and wheat crops and to develop adaptation strategies for the rice-wheat cropping system during the mid-century (2040-2069) as these two crops have significant contributions to food production. For the quantification of adverse impacts of climate change in farmer fields, a multidisciplinary approach consisted of five climate models (GCMs), two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) and an economic model [Trade-off Analysis, Minimum Data Model Approach (TOAMD)] was used in this case study. DSSAT predicted that there would be a yield reduction of 15.2% in rice and 14.1% in wheat and APSIM showed that there would be a yield reduction of 17.2% in rice and 12% in wheat. Adaptation technology, by modification in crop management like sowing time and density, nitrogen, and irrigation application have the potential to enhance the overall productivity and profitability of the rice-wheat cropping system under climate change scenarios. Moreover, this paper reviews current literature regarding adverse climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, associated main issues, challenges, and opportunities for sustainable productivity of agriculture to ensure food security in Asia. Flowing opportunities such as altering sowing time and planting density of crops, crop rotation with legumes, agroforestry, mixed livestock systems, climate resilient plants, livestock and fish breeds, farming of monogastric livestock, early warning systems and decision support systems, carbon sequestration, climate, water, energy, and soil smart technologies, and promotion of biodiversity have the potential to reduce the negative effects of climate change.

Modelling and Forecasting of Maize Production in South Asian Countries

The challenges of fighting poverty and enhancing food security in South Asia have made maize a strategic crop in this region. In this study, maize production in South Asia, encompassing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, was analysed and projected from 1961 to 2027 using state-space and ARIMA models. The estimation outcomes demonstrated the state-space models’ superior performance in predicting trends in maize output for all eight time series. Additionally, the forecast estimation revealed that we anticipated an uptick in the output of maize in these nations; this finding would be encouraging for the countries in this region as it would heighten the problem of food security. India would be leading countries in maize with production of 380438 thousand tonnes in 2027.