APEC Research Articles

Effects of biomass energy consumption on environmental quality: The role of education and technology in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries

Rising concern regarding traditional non-renewable energy consumption has led policymakers to explore the potential of economical renewable energy sources. In this regard, biomass energy has received considerable attention because previous studies have found mixed results regarding the effect of biomass energy on environmental quality. Together with modern technology, biomass energy may significantly influence environmental quality. This study investigates the impact of biomass energy consumption, education, and technological innovation on environmental quality by controlling for the role of economic growth and financial development in the function of environmental quality. Second-generation econometric methods were used to solve the issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in the study variables. The Westerlund and Edgerton (2008) cointegration technique confirmed the existence of a long-run equilibrium among the variables in the presence of structural breaks. The panel quantile regression results indicate that biomass energy use and technological innovation reduce environmental quality. Similarly, economic growth increases carbon emissions in the environment. Education and financial development contribute to reduce carbon emissions.

Characteristics of chemical profile, sources and PAH toxicity of PM2.5 in beijing in autumn-winter transit season with regard to domestic heating, pollution control measures and meteorology

Several air pollution episodes occurred in Beijing before and after the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, during which air-pollution control measures were implemented. Within this autumn-winter transit season, domestic heating started. Such interesting period merits comprehensive chemical characterization, particularly the organic species, to look into the influence of additional heating sources and the control measures on air pollution. Therefore, this study performed daily and 6h time resolved PM2.5 sampling from the 24th October to 7th December, 2014, followed by comprehensive chemical analyses including water-soluble ions, elements and organic source-markers. Apparent alterations of chemical profiles were observed with the initiation of domestic heating. Through positive matrix factorization (PMF) source apportionment modeling, six PM2.5 sources including secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), traffic emission, coal combustion, industry emission, biomass burning and dust were separated and identified. Coal combustion was successfully distinguished from traffic emission by hopane diagnostic ratio. The result of this study reveals a gradual shift of dominating sources for PM pollution episodes from SIA to primary sources after starting heating. BaPeq toxicity from coal combustion increased on average by several to dozens of times in the heating period, causing both long-term and short-term health risk. Air mass trajectory analysis highlights the regional influence of the industry emissions from the area south to Beijing. Control measures taken during APEC were found to be effective for reducing industry source, but less effective in reducing the overall PM2.5 level. These results provide implications for policy making regarding appropriate air pollution control measures.

Alan Bollard, Economists at War. How a Handful of Economists Helped Win and Lose the World Wars

Are economists and their insights of any use in a war? Is their knowledge worthless when the tanks and soldiers start crossing borders, or are they crucial actors in achieving military success? This book recounts the role that seven economists played in six countries, during the period 1935-1955. Alan Bollard is currently a professor of economics at Victoria University in Wellington, and has been executive director of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), Governor of New Zealand’s Reserve...

Are Cross-Border Classes Feasible for Students to Collaborate in the Analysis of Energy Efficiency Strategies for Socioeconomic Development While Keeping CO2 Concentration Controlled?

Education is critical for improving energy efficiency and reducing CO2 concentration, but collaboration between countries is also critical. It is a global problem in which we cannot isolate ourselves. Our students must learn to collaborate in seeking solutions together with others from other countries. Thus, the research question of this study is whether interactive cross-border science classes with energy experiments are feasible and can increase awareness of energy efficiency among middle school students. We designed and tested an interactive cross-border class between Chilean and Peruvian eighth-grade classes. The classes were synchronously connected and all students did experiments and answered open-ended questions on an online platform. Some of the questions were designed to check conceptual understanding whereas others asked for suggestions of how to develop their economies while keeping CO2 air concentration at acceptable levels. In real time, the teacher reviewed the students’ written answers and the concept maps that were automatically generated based on their responses. Students peer-reviewed their classmates’ suggestions. This is part of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) education project on energy efficiency using APEC databases. We found high levels of student engagement, where students discussed not only the cross-cutting nature of energy, but also its relation to socioeconomic development and CO2 emissions, and the need to work together to improve energy efficiency. In conclusion, interactive cross-border science classes are a feasible educational alternative, with potential as a scalable public policy strategy for improving awareness of energy efficiency among the population.

Environmental Taxation and Import Demand for Environmental Goods: Theory and Evidence from the European Union

In this paper, we study the impact of environmental taxation on trade in environmental goods (EGs). Using a trade model in which demand for and supply of EGs are endogenous, we show that the relationship between environmental taxation and demand for EGs follows a bell-shaped curve. Above a cutoff tax rate, a higher tax rate can reduce bilateral trade in EGs because there are too many low-productivity EG suppliers. Based on trade data from 1995 to 2012 across the EU-27 countries, our empirical results are in accordance with the predictions of our model when we use the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) list of EGs. We find that environmental taxation (measured as the ratio of environmental tax revenoe to GDP) has a monotonically positive impact on the number of trading partners. Furthermore, we show that if countries were to apply an environmental tax rate equal to $$3.96\%$$ (e.g., the tax rate maximizing international trade in EGs), then trade in EGs across the EU-27 members would experience an increase of 25.33 percentage points. The results are mixed when we analyse the EGs on the OECD list. While the results for the the number of trading partners are confirmed when we use this list, there is no effect of environmental taxation on import demand.

The COVID-19 crisis as an opportunity to strengthen global regulatory coordination for sustained enhanced access to diagnostics and therapeutics.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic presents an unparalleled opportunity for regulators globally to strengthen coordination, advance alignment initiatives, and exercise regulatory agility to facilitate access to the surge in diagnostics, therapies and vaccines without compromising public safety. We describe international collaborative initiatives, summarise key experiences, and urge the global regulatory community to apply lessons from the current pandemic to strengthen and sustain cooperation for future public health emergencies and enhanced health products access.

Digitalization in Asia-Pacific Region: Ready for Growth, But Ready for Inclusion?

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has been promoting digital transformation as a key mean for regional economic growth and economic integration. The digitalization agenda within APEC is further accelerating since the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently at the APEC Leaders’ Meeting in November 2020, the APEC Putrajaya Vision 2040 was adopted, which includes “Innovation and Digitalization” addressing inclusive economic participation through digital economy and technology as a focus area for the next 20 years. However, it is still difficult to expect visible outcomes in the field of digital inclusion within APEC. Upon this backdrop, this article examines the progress of digitalization in the Asia-Pacific region, compares and analyzes the digital transformation policies of major economies in the region, demonstrates the effect of the digital gap on economic performance in the region, and goes on to produce policy implications.

APEC: Assessing progress towards the Bogor goals

Over 30 years, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation has evolved from an informal consultative dialogue into a leading inter-economy forum for promoting open trade and investment, business facilitation, as well as economic and technical cooperation. The number of APEC economies has increased, the agenda has expanded significantly to include, for example, environmental issues, digitalization, and social aspects of regulation. At the same time, in the institutional sphere, the forum has preserved the principle of consensus in decision-making, as well as the voluntary nature of commitments made by participants and the lack of mechanisms to enforce them. There is not much research on the overall results of APEC’s activities, especially on quantitative assessments of sectoral performance. The article provides an overview of international studies analyzing the forum’s achievement in different areas, including the “Bogor Goals” of trade and investment liberalization in the region. In addition, the authors conducted their own quantitative evaluation of APEC’s sectoral performance based on I. Yamazawa’s methodology and developed proposals for improving the methodology. The assessments have shown that APEC has been very successful in promoting the Bogor Goals, though the economies still have not achieved full liberalization of trade and investment in the region by 2020 deadline. Nevertheless, APEC continues its work to promote trade globalization, share regulatory experiences and best practices, harmonize standards, and improve connectivity in the region.

ДИСПОЗИЦІЯ ОКРЕМИХ КРАЇН АТЕС В ГЛОБАЛЬНОМУ ЕКОНОМІЧНОМУ СЕРЕДОВИЩІ

The formation of a new global system and systemic global interdependence generates new factors of com- petitiveness of market participants, determining their appropriate strategic behavior to ensure a high competitive position and leadership. This determines the relevance of the research topic. The aim of the study is to determine the peculiarities of the deve¬ lopment of individual countries and key determinants of advanced development in Asia which are members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The following research methods were used in the article: models of multifactor regression, cluster analysis, methods of comparative analysis. Method (methodology). Using a multifactor regression model and cluster analysis, four clusters of countries were identified according to key indicators of intellectual leadership. For each cluster, the specializa- tion of the two countries in terms of merchandise exports was analyzed, namely, 1 cluster – the United States and Germany; 2nd cluster – Israel and Italy; 3rd cluster – Brazil and Ukraine; Cluster 4 – China and the Republic of Korea. Based on the author’s methodology for assessing the intellectual leadership of countries, the clustering of countries in the global economy is determined. The evaluation algorithm was based on three stages: first – the resource level; secondly – the level of intermediate results of intellectual activity; third – the level of the final results of overall progress. Based on clustering, it is determined that Asian countries are characterized by different from other countries features of development, determined by historical and economic preconditions. addition, the normative basis for the development of human resources in Asian countries which are members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the peculiarities of the production of high-tech goods and the rating of high-tech exports of selected countries are determined. The superdynamic development of Asian countries indicates the formation of a specific cluster on the global economic map, characterized by faster development, significant attention to the development of key factors of intellectualization and increasing their own positions in global rankings.

The evaluation of the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies

Investment strategies related to the use of high-dividend shares have been known for more than 30 years. Despite this, they remain relevant today. A large number of studies on this topic are devoted to studying the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies within one market, and cross-country studies evaluate a small number of markets. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in the markets of all APEC economies, with the exception of Brunei and Papua New Guinea. The time horizon of the study is from 2002 to the present. We applied well-known modifications of the classic high-dividend strategy and modifications developed by the authors. We test hypotheses regarding the influence of various factors, such as the number of shares in a portfolio, the month of portfolio formation,classifying the economy as developed or developing, and the return on high-dividend portfolios. We also test the hypothesis that the significance of the high-dividend anomaly exists in various markets, but decreases over time. The results show different levels of effectiveness of high-dividend strategies and the different impact of the factors on the markets of developed and developing APEC economies. We found that high-dividend strategies are generally more effective in emerging markets, but in case of market growth, high-dividend strategies increase their abnormal returns only in developed markets. At the same time, the authors conclude that the number of shares in a high-dividend portfolio directly affects the result of its work. The results have theoretical and practical value, and can be applied in compiling a real investment portfolio.

Does bureaucracy affect the outcome of logistics performance? Empirical evidence from South Asia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop and test theory-driven hypothesis on trade costs’ effect of logistics performance (LP) and bureaucratic efficiency, primarily from SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) perspective.Design/methodology/approachThe paper develops hypothesis based on the review of the literature and theory linking LP, trade costs and institutions. The authors test the hypothesis using secondary data sources: World Bank-UNESCAP trade costs database, World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and Political Risk Service's Political Risk Rating. Fixed-effect approach is used to test the hypothesis.FindingsThe influential role of bureaucratic quality on relationship between LPI and South Asian trade costs (inter-SAARC and intra-SAARC) is evident. The results also point out that bureaucratic quality also conditions the effect of different dimensions of LPI on South Asian trade costs. Further, it is found that bureaucratic inefficiency mitigates the effects of LPI on South Asia's trade costs with its proximate trading partners APEC (Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation) and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asia Nations).Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis is conducted using short span of data. With the availability of long span of data, the understanding of the relationship studies in this paper will improve.Practical implicationsThe results suggests policymakers to improve bureaucratic efficiency for utilizing the full potential effect of LPI in deceasing trade costs. The study inspires businesses to act and advocate in favor of reforms in governance system.Originality/valueThis paper is among the first, which investigates the possibility that the relationship between LPI and trade costs depends on the bureaucratic efficiency. It provides a more detailed description of the LPI-trade costs relationship.

О перспективах Дальнего Востока после саммита АТЭС-2012

<span>Проведен анализ последствий прошедшего восемь лет назад саммита АТЭС во Владивостоке: как принималось решение о проведении мероприятия, какие объекты построены, как это отразилось на социально-экономической ситуации в городе и Приморском крае, какие инвестиционные проекты после саммита реализуются на территории Дальнего Востока, и насколько предпринятые усилия повлияли на отток населения. Утверждается, что сырьевая направленность экономической специализации является главной причиной сохраняющейся высокой миграции, тогда как курс на новую индустриализацию и инновационное развитие может принципиально изменить ситуацию. Предлагается набор мер, которые смогут обеспечить переход к новому типу хозяйствования: во взаимоотношениях власти и потенциальных резидентов территорий опережающего развития и свободного порта Владивосток; в организации пространства и формировании агломерации нового типа; в трансформации роли и содержания работы Восточного экономического форума и уточнении миссии федерального университета.</span>

Dynamic relationship between technological innovations, financial development, renewable energy, and ecological footprint: fresh insights based on the STIRPAT model for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries.

This article seeks to analyze the impact of technological innovations, financial development, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and population on the ecological footprint in Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries by utilizing the balanced longitudinal data set during the period from 1990 to 2017. This study creates a new technological innovation index through principle component analysis including three important indicators that represent the technology and employs a consistent environmental framework identified as Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The second generation panel estimation technique is employed to calculate robust and reliable outcomes. After confirming the cross-sectional dependency among series, panel unit root tests confirm that all variables are stationary at their first integrated order. Furthermore, Westerlund cointegration test confirms the presence of long-run association among variables. The outcomes explore that financial development and renewable energy utilization significantly accelerate the environmental quality by 0.0927% and 0.4274%, respectively. While, the increase in technological innovation activities, economic growth, and population size has a detrimental effect on environmental quality in the long run by 0.099%, 0.517%, and 0.458%, respectively. Moreover, the results of panel Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D-H) non-causality test discovered the bidirectional causality relationship between financial development, technological innovations, renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and population size with the ecological footprint. These empirical findings provide some vital policy implications for central authority and policymakers to overcome the detrimental impact on environmental quality in the APEC region.

THE APEC INTEGRATED COMPETITIVE FORCE INDEX

The number of actors that affect the distribution of the competitive force in the global economy is growing, and the spheres of economic competition or cooperation are expanding to build up the competitive force. The article emphasizes the significant impact of international economic integration on the sustainable economic development of the world economy. It also shows that the study of the competitive force of interstate integration groupings is highly relevant today, as international economic integration plays a fundamental role in the development of trade and competitive relations between countries. The paper offers the methodology for competitiveness grouping of Member States of the international integration groupings in order to assess the global competitive force of trade and economic groupings in the world economy. The purpose is to investigate the Integrated Competitive Force Index of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2019 in order to analyze the attractiveness of APEC in terms of the global competitive force. It is also important to determine the attractiveness of APEC competitive environment according to 12 criteria on the basis of the research, which, in turn, allows for a better understanding and ranking of interstate integration groupings according to their competitive forces. Result. Based on the data of the Global Competitiveness Report 2019 on the competitiveness of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Member States (APEC), the Integrated Competitive Force Index of APEC as an interstate integration grouping has been calculated. The Index will help to assess economic integration or disintegration processes in the global economy. The article proves the necessity of the annual integrated competitive force ranking of international integration groupings. Practical implications. The introduction of the new Integrated Competitive Force Index of interstate integration groupings will help competition policymakers to decide which processes of economic integration or disintegration should be preferred in order to build up their competitive force in the global economy.

The APEC Digital Hub-WONCA Collaborative Framework on Integration of Mental Health into Primary Care in the Asia Pacific.

Mental ill health affects individual well-being and national economic prosperity and makes up a substantial portion of the burden of disease globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. Integrating mental health into primary care is widely considered a key strategy to improve access to mental health care. Integration, however, is a complex process that needs to be addressed at multiple levels. A collaboration between the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Digital Hub for Mental Health and the World Organization of Family Doctors (WONCA) is described in this paper, which outlines a framework and next steps to improve the mental health of communities in APEC economies. This paper notes gaps related to the integration of mental health into primary care across the region and identifies enablers and current best practices from several APEC economies. The potential of digital technology to benefit primary mental health care for populations in the APEC region, including delivery of training programs for healthcare staff and access to resources for patients, is described. Finally, key next steps are proposed to promote enhanced integration into primary care and improve mental health care throughout the APEC region.

Inter-annual variability and skill of tropical rainfall and SST in APCC seasonal forecast models

The present study explored the performance of the current coupled models obtained from the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Centre (APCC) in representing the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer season (June through September; JJAS). We have used the retrospective/hindcast runs for 28 years from 1983 to 2010 initialized in May. The mean SST bias in the tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans showed large diversity among the models in JJAS. In the case of the rainfall, most of the models displayed a strong dry bias over the major continental regions and wet biases over the tropical oceans. The majority of the models simulated the Inter-annual variability (IAV) of JJAS rainfall and SST reasonably well over the equatorial Pacific region, where the models are close to observed IAV and maximum signal to noise ratio (SNR). It is found that the models display, low IAV of rainfall and SST over the Indian Ocean with low SNR values, resulting in less predictive skill as compared to the tropical Pacific region. Similarly, all models showed a higher skill in summer rainfall prediction over the oceanic regions compared to the Asian land region, where SNR is very low. Further analysis suggested that the models have greater skill in predicting El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The category wise analysis showed that models could predict 60–70% of the extreme ENSO events, but the normal events are represented only by 50%. It is noted that the models predict many false alarms for El Nino resulting in a higher frequency of El Nino occurrence. This is mainly responsible for stronger ENSO and the Asian Monsoon teleconnections in the models than in the observations. Meanwhile, the category wise rainfall skill for extended Indian monsoon region (EMR) displayed 50–60% accuracy for the extreme monsoon years and is around 50% for normal years. However, models such as CCSM3, CFSV2, and CANCM3 have displayed higher rainfall skills over EMR as compared to the other models possibly due to better representation of teleconnections spatial patterns between EMR rainfall and SST anomalies over Indo-Pacific Oceans.

The Coronavirus Will Not Change the long-Term Upward Trend of China’s Economic Development

The author investigates the impact of COVID‑19 and macro-policy adjustment on China’s economic development. The aim is to describe the situation and trend of China’s economic development before and after COVID‑19. The research method is the comparative data analysis. The study shows that in response to COVID‑19, the Chinese government, on the one hand, has accelerated its opening-up, taken the opportunity of fighting against the pandemic to provide medical assistance to and cooperate with other countries, and actively promoted the building of a community with a shared future for mankind and the process of globalization. On the basis of the Belt and Road Initiative and multilateral, regional, and subregional cooperation mechanisms such as the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), G20 (Group of 20), and APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), China and the Eurasian Economic Union began to cooperate more frequently and the trade relations between Japan, South Korea, and European developed countries became closer. Meanwhile, committed to building a global interconnection partnership, China actively participates in global economic governance and provides various public products. The Chinese government has proposed “Six Guarantees” on the basis of “Six Stability”. In order to achieve the purpose of stabilizing foreign trade and expanding imports, China has imposed various measures to accelerate the liberalization and facilitation of international trade and investment, such as implementing the new version of the “Foreign Investment Law”, establishing free trade zones, and promoting its experience and organizing international import expositions. Additionally, the Chinese government also implemented targeted fiscal and monetary policies, increased support for enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and promoted the construction of “new infrastructure” and innovation of business model, which have formed the driving forces for the transformation of the economic development model in China from traditional business to cloud business, from traditional marketing to live streaming marketing, from traditional sales to online sales. The author concluded thatChina’s adjustment of macro policies in response to COVID‑19 was effective and played an important role in the resumption of production and life, stabilizing foreign trade activities, releasing domestic demand and promoting stable and sustained growth of the economy

Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences.

This study examines how experience of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) influences the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on international tourism demand for four Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and New Zealand, over the 1 January–30 April 2020 period. To proceed, panel regression models are first applied with a time-lag effect to estimate the general effects of COVID-19 on daily tourist arrivals. In turn, the data set is decomposed into two nation groups and fixed effects models are employed for addressing the comparison of the pandemic-tourism relationship between economies with and without experiences of the SARS epidemic. Specifically, Taiwan and Hong Kong are grouped as economies with SARS experiences, while Thailand and New Zealand are grouped as countries without experiences of SARS. The estimation result indicates that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has a significant negative impact on tourism demand, in which a 1% COVID-19 case increase causes a 0.075% decline in tourist arrivals, which is a decline of approximately 110 arrivals for every additional person infected by the coronavirus. The negative impact of COVID-19 on tourist arrivals for Thailand and New Zealand is found much stronger than for Taiwan and Hong Kong. In particular, the number of tourist arrivals to Taiwan and Hong Kong decreased by 0.034% in response to a 1% increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases, while in Thailand and New Zealand, a 1% national confirmed cases increase caused a 0.103% reduction in tourism demand. Moreover, the effect of the number of domestic cases on international tourism is found lower than the effect caused by global COVID-19 mortality for the economies with SARS experiences. In contrast, tourist arrivals are majorly affected by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Thailand and New Zealand. Finally, travel restriction in all cases is found to be the most influencing factor for the number of tourist arrivals. Besides contributing to the existing literature focusing on the knowledge regarding the nexus between tourism and COVID-19, the paper’s findings also highlight the importance of risk perception and the need of transmission prevention and control of the epidemic for the tourism sector.

Makroekonomik Performans Göstergelerinin Yolsuzluğa Etkisi

“Kamu gücünün özel çıkarlar için kötüye kullanılması” olarak tanımlanan yolsuzluk ekonomik, politik, hukuki ve sosyo-kültürel belirleyicileri olan bir kavramdır. Ülkeden ülkeye farklılık gösteren yolsuzluğun ölçümü ise pek mümkün olmamakla birlikte yolsuzluk algı ölçümü yapılabilmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı söz konusu belirleyicilerden yalnızca ekonomik belirleyicilerin yolsuzluk ile ilişkisini test etmektir. Bu kapsamda 2001-2017 dönemi için APEC (Asya Pasifik Ekonomik İşbirliği) ülkelerinde makroekonomik performans göstergelerinin yolsuzluğa etkisi panel sıralı nitel tercih yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Makroekonomik performans göstergeleri büyüme, enflasyon, işsizlik, gelir eşitsizliği ve dışa açıklık olarak belirlenmiş, dışa açıklık değişkeni ticari küreselleşme endeksi ile tanımlanmıştır. Yolsuzluk algı endeksi bağımlı değişkendir ve endeksin en yüksek değeri 0, en düşük değeri 10’dur. Bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılan yolsuzluk algılama endeksi sıralı bir değişken olduğu için sıralı nitel tercih modelleri kullanılmıştır. Ekonometrik analizler sonucu elde edilen bulgulara göre kişi başına GSYH ve ticari küreselleşme endeksi arttıkça yolsuzluk endeks değeri de artmakta, diğer bir ifadeyle yolsuzluk azalmaktadır. Enflasyon oranı ve Gini katsayısı (gelir eşitsizliği) arttıkça yolsuzluk endeks değeri azalmakta, yolsuzluk artmaktadır. İşsizlik oranı arttıkça yolsuzluk endeks değeri önce artmakta (yolsuzluk azalmakta), sonra azalmaktadır (yolsuzluk artmakta). Çalışmada makroekonomik performans göstergelerinin yolsuzluğun düşük düzeylerinde daha etkili ve düşük yolsuzluk düzeyini etkileme olasılığının ise daha yüksek olduğu sonucu elde edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla gelir seviyesini artırabilen ve bunun adil dağıtımını sağlayarak işsizliği azaltan, dünya ekonomisi ile entegrasyon derecesini yükselten ve enflasyon oranını düşük tutabilen ülkelerde yolsuzluğun da düşeceği ortaya koyulmuştur.

Forecasting the non-renewable energy consumption by an adjacent accumulation grey model

This paper proposes an adjacent accumulation discrete grey model to enhance the prediction accuracy of grey model and improve the utilization of new data. The stability of the proposed model is proved and the new model can obtain higher prediction accuracy through three cases. And it was applied to the prediction of the non-renewable energy consumption in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. It proves that discrete grey model with adjacent accumulation is effective. According to the forecasting results, the oil consumptions in 15 countries have an increasing trend. The coal consumptions of five countries (South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines) show a clear growth trend and The United States, Canada and Australia all show a downward trend. The consumptions of natural gas in the United States, Mexico, Singapore, China, Vietnam and Peru will all increase. For nuclear energy, China’s consumption will increase and South Korea’s consumption will decrease.