Forecasting the non-renewable energy consumption by an adjacent accumulation grey model

Abstract

This paper proposes an adjacent accumulation discrete grey model to enhance the prediction accuracy of grey model and improve the utilization of new data. The stability of the proposed model is proved and the new model can obtain higher prediction accuracy through three cases. And it was applied to the prediction of the non-renewable energy consumption in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. It proves that discrete grey model with adjacent accumulation is effective. According to the forecasting results, the oil consumptions in 15 countries have an increasing trend. The coal consumptions of five countries (South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines) show a clear growth trend and The United States, Canada and Australia all show a downward trend. The consumptions of natural gas in the United States, Mexico, Singapore, China, Vietnam and Peru will all increase. For nuclear energy, China’s consumption will increase and South Korea’s consumption will decrease.