Art Of Conjecture Research Articles

Miller, Clyde Lee. The Art of Conjecture: Nicholas of Cusa on Knowledge

Miller, Clyde Lee. The Art of Conjecture: Nicholas of Cusa on Knowledge

The Art of Conjecture: A Window into the Heart

In 1561, Francesco Casoni published De arte, ac ratione in criminum causis disserendi, a dialogue that offered judges a rigorous method of investigation in criminal cases in which eyewitness testimony or a confession was lacking. Typically, in such cases, judges relied on their own personal arbitrium (discretion) in deciding whether to remand defendants to torture or sentence them to the gallows. Drawing not only on Aristotelian logic and classical rhetorical theory but also on the works of contemporary philosophers, Casoni used his dialogue to lay out a rigorous interpretative methodology. To Casoni, the careful elaboration of inferences, along with the proper use of loci, and a reasoned interpretation of signs (both natural signs and signs of conscience) enabled judges to read, through the opaque surfaces of the body, the interior states of those brought into their courts on suspicion of crimes—and to do so without resorting to torture.

New Books across the Disciplines

New Books across the Disciplines

The Art of Conjecture: Nicholas of Cusa on Knowledge. By Clyde LeeMiller. Washington, D.C.: The Catholic University of America Press, 2021. Pp. x, 187. $75.00.

The Art of Conjecture: Nicholas of Cusa on Knowledge. By Clyde LeeMiller. Washington, D.C.: The Catholic University of America Press, 2021. Pp. x, 187. $75.00.

Integrating Foresight, Artificial Intelligence and Data Science to Develop Dynamic Futures Analysis

The paper discusses the role of integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Science (DS) with the strategic foresight. That is, combining the art of conjecture with several algorithms available in the literature. The combination between qualitative and quantitative methods offers a new dynamic adaptation route to face the rapidly changing environment, to make strategic design more flexible in the long term. The proposal uses the ISSM framework as a notion of a Strategic Early Warning System (SEWS). Thus, an ISSM framework could assist organizations during the transition from dealing with discontinuities or strategic surprises to a new normal, using new capacities to creating knowledge of futures. The purpose is help to develop the component named competitive intelligence (CI) architecture to create knowledge about the future, improving continuous learning, and promote the capacity to adaptation. Therefore, anticipation, learning and strategic adaptation, are key attributes for building strategic flexibility that responds to several challenges.

The smallpox vaccine: the dispute between Bernoulli and d’Alembert and the calculus of probabilities

The urgent and dramatic need to introduce and promote a vaccine against smallpox, a scourge for society at the end of the 1700s, provided the occasion for a lively debate between Daniel Bernoulli and Jean Le Rond d’Alembert. This article discusses the motivations and arguments of the dispute, illustrating the probabilistic model proposed by Bernoulli to justify the greater “reasonableness” of the campaign in favour of the vaccine, and the objections raised by d’Alembert. The aim of this analysis is, beginning with a reconstruction of the contributions of the two authors, to show how the newly founded “art of conjecture” was the object of divergent interpretations, from the characterisation of its theoretical principles, such as the concept of expectation, to the question of its legitimacy in applications as a “guide to practical living”.

Tercentenary of Ars Conjectandi (1713): Jacob Bernoulli and the Founding of Mathematical Probability

SummaryThe Tercentenary of the publication of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (The Art of Conjecturing) provides an opportunity to look at the origins of mathematical probability from Jacob Bernoulli's point of view. Bernoulli gave a mathematically rigorous proof of what has come to be called the weak law of large numbers, relevant to discovering ratios of unknown factors through sampling. The Art of Conjecturing was a bridge between the mathematics of expectation in games of chance as found in Huygens's On Reckoning in Games of Chance and mathematical probability as found in Abraham De Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances. This paper looks at the conceptual context as well as the mathematics of Bernoulli's book.

Ars Conjectandi Three Hundred Years On

Abstract This year sees the 300th anniversary of Bernoulli's Ars conjectandi–The Art of Conjecturing. It transformed gamblers' “expectations” into modern mathematical probabilities. More importantly, it sets forth what Bernoulli called his “golden theorem”– the law of large numbers – which underpins the whole of statistical inference. Professor Anthony Edwards digs deep.

Solusi Deret Pangkat Tetap Dengan Fungsi Pembangkit

This article discusses about the sum of powers , which closed solutions empirically have been discovered by Jacob Bernoulli in 1731 in The Art of Conjecture. In this paper, we will find a closed solution of the sum of powers by using the Generating Function. By learning how to derive the closed solution of the sum of powers, the Generating Function can be used to solve the more general series forms.

The Art of Conjecturing, Together with Letter to a Friend on Sets in Court Tennis - by Jacob Bernoulli (Trans. with an introduction and notes by Edith Dudley Sylla)

CentaurusVolume 50, Issue 4 p. 335-337 The Art of Conjecturing, Together with Letter to a Friend on Sets in Court Tennis - by Jacob Bernoulli (Trans. with an introduction and notes by Edith Dudley Sylla) Giora Hon, Giora HonSearch for more papers by this author Giora Hon, Giora HonSearch for more papers by this author First published: 24 October 2008 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0498.2008.00117.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article. Volume50, Issue4November 2008Pages 335-337 RelatedInformation

Global nephrology guidelines: a first small step in the right direction

Guidelines for the care and cure of illnesses have been an integral component of medicine from its origins. Extant records of ancient medicine document precise recommendations of then available therapeutic options, which lend themselves to analysis as algorithms of diagnosis and treatment [1]. The 5000-year-old Babylonian Code of Hammurabi clearly states the compensation for a cure and the punishment for a poor outcome. As the priestly medicine of Mesopotamia and Egypt led to the emergence of Greek rational medicine, therein began the foundations of a scientific basis to guidelines, albeit based on individual case observations and accrued clinical experience. The beginnings of epidemiologic studies and probability mathematics during the Enlightenment added a new dimension and terminology to guidelines. The consequent complexity that resulted is perhaps best exemplified in the publication of an explanatory test titled ‘Medical Arithmetic, As a Guide and Compass Through the Labyrinth of Therapeutics’ by William Black (1749–1829). This time-honoured thread began in ancient medicine, entered an entirely novel phase in the period after the Second World War, when the expanding number of new therapeutic agents being discovered coupled with that of quantification and statistical analysis came to provide increasing measurable precision to certainty in therapeutics, and changed what started as the conjectural art of medicine into a disciplined science of clinical investigation [2]. The stage was now set for what has come to be known as evidence-based medicine, a term whose use has increased exponentially since the mid-1990s [3]. The subsequent iconic image vested in evidence-based medicine led to a parallel increase in the development of new clinical practice guidelines [4]. Thus, whereas evidence had long guided the practice of medicine, the philosophical beginnings of quantifiable evidence-based medicine in the 18th century now fuelled the generation of an overwhelming number of clinical practice guidelines in medicine [2–4].

BERNOULLI, Jacob. The Art of Conjecturing, together with Letter to a Friend on sets in court tennis [Traslated with and introduction and notes by : Edith Dudley Sylla

BERNOULLI, Jacob. The Art of Conjecturing, together with Letter to a Friend on sets in court tennis [Traslated with and introduction and notes by : Edith Dudley Sylla

Emergence of quantification in clinical investigation and the quest for certainty in therapeutics: The road from Hammurabi to Kefauver

Throughout most of history, medical knowledge was descriptive in nature and derived from the work of individual investigators of independent mind pursuing careful but often chance observations. Using deductive reasoning, these findings were then generalized, authoritatively presented, and dogmatically promulgated. This, coupled with firmly grounded principles of divine determinism, precluded any serious consideration of randomness, even when variations from recorded, but erroneous, statements were actually observed. Although probability remained an integral component of diagnosis and therapy, it was only as an attribute of opinion and not one supported by numbers. The gradual erosion of this edifice began during the scientific revolution of the seventeenth century that led to the burgeoning of the sciences basic to medicine. Although clinicians applauded these contributions, they failed to apply the inductive method of investigation to the study of disease or to therapy. The "numerical method" of Pierre Louis (1787-1872) first introduced systematic quantification into medicine during the first half of the nineteenth century. Analysis of quantifiable data found its principal application in epidemiology, which flourished during the second half of the nineteenth century. The subsequent adoption of probability calculus for the analysis of quantifiable data, during the first half of the twentieth century, refined the process further and led to the gradual emergence of medical statistics, with a distinct role in clinical research. The mathematical precision provided by quantification and statistical analysis established certainty in medicine and ultimately changed the conjectural art of clinical practice into a disciplined science founded on clinical investigation, the very basis of present-day, evidence-based medicine.

Statistics: The Art of Conjecture

Statistics: The Art of Conjecture

Forecasting: From conjectural art toward science

Forecasting: From conjectural art toward science

Forecasting: From conjectural art toward science

Forecasting: From conjectural art toward science

The Art of Conjecture.

The Art of Conjecture.

The Art of Conjecture.

The Art of Conjecture.

Book Reviews and Notes - The Art of Conjecture. By Bertrand de Jouvenel; translated by Nikita Lary. (New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1967. Pp. x, 307. $7.50.)

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Book Reviews and Notes - The Art of Conjecture. By Bertrand de Jouvenel; translated by Nikita Lary. (New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1967. Pp. x, 307. $7.50.)

Book Reviews and Notes - The Art of Conjecture. By Bertrand de Jouvenel; translated by Nikita Lary. (New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1967. Pp. x, 307. $7.50.)