Arrival Date Research Articles

Analytical support to organization system of children transportation in long-distance trains

Abstract. In modern conditions for passenger complex of Russian Railways, important tasks include improvement of transportation quality, maintenance of stable positions in a competitive environment and increasing demand. To address these issues, a customer-oriented approach is applied based on the segmentation of transport market in relation to certain groups of passengers. Performance of children's transportation is of particular relevance and social significance. Railways are charged with a huge range of work, including sale of travel documents, preparation and equipping of passenger cars, provision of food during the trip, instructing workers, ensuring security during the embarkation/disembarkation of passengers, etc. Children can travel as individually with accompanying persons and as part of organized groups. Processes of planning, organizing, monitoring the transportation of this age category of passengers are associated with the analysis of a large amount of reference and regulatory and reporting documentation. On the basis of the ACS “Express-3”, a program-analytical complex “Children's transportation” was developed and implemented, which allows to receive data at the regional and network levels in the operational (train number, day) and statistical (period of dates, month) modes. This information technology provides analytical support for key transportation management functions — planning, control, analysis. Planning of transportation of organized children's groups is carried out on the basis of a study of the dynamics of data on the number of applications received and travel documents issued, determining the routes of trains, periods of the highest intensity of passenger traffic, obtaining information about the stations of embarkation and disembarkation. To perform the functions of monitoring the embarkation and disembarkation at the destination station of groups of children, the employees involved receive information on the train number, car number, date and time of arrival, number of children in the group using the Children's Transportation software. For the analysis of transportation of children's age categories, a functional has been developed that ensures the construction of aggregated reporting based on trains data that completed the trip. Users receive reporting information in table form, including “strict” (designed according to the approved layout) and “flexible” forms (construction is performed according to specified parameters). Software and analytical complex is designed for managers and specialists of the passenger unit of the JSC “Russian Railways”, has a modular principle of increasing functionality and provides a solution to current problems in the system of organizing children's transport service.

Last-minute hotel-booking behavior: The impact of time on decision-making

Abstract Last-minute bookings are becoming more prevalent in the hotel industry. Consequently, this study aims to identify distinctive booking attributes associated with last-minute booking, and to examine how temporal distance between the time of booking and the date of arrival affects customers' price perception and booking behavior. An online survey of 357 individuals was conducted, and a series of one-way ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) were performed to test the hypotheses. The results indicated that customers who have the shortest temporal distance (0–2 days before the date of stay) exhibited a relatively smaller evoked set size, lower involvement, and shorter decision time than any other temporal distance group. Moreover, the group with the shortest temporal distance (0–2 days before the date of stay) diverged noticeably from the rest of the temporal distance groups on booking attributes. This research is one of the pioneering studies specifically focusing on last-minute booking behavior. The findings contribute to the understanding of the impact of time on customers' hotel-booking decisions. The current study offers new insights into the set of salient and non-static booking attributes that drive hotel choices over time as the date of stay draws near. This study offers pointed suggestions on how to drive online hotel bookings more effectively depending on customers' time of booking.

Annual Cycles of Wagtails (Passeriformes, Motacillidae) in Northwestern Siberia: Comparative Aspects

Abstract—The annual cycles of pipits and wagtails, which were studied during field and experimental observations in the Lower Ob River basin and Yamal Peninsula, have many common features. All species are similar in dates of arrival, nesting, molting, and departure onset; however, the timing of postnuptial migration and prenuptial molting differ somewhat. Positive air temperatures are an environmental factor that determines the beginning of arrival to the forest tundra and tundras. Only yellow wagtails arrive with developed gonads, while the other species require additional stimulation by a photoperiod of 24L : 0D. The reduction of some nesting stages is presumably an attempt of boreal populations to increase reproductive success. Differences in the annual cycle program are observed during the postnesting period. These variations include the timing of the onset and duration of postjuvenile and postnuptial molting, as well as the degree of overlap of postnuptial molting with nesting, the degree of overlap of the migration state with molting, photoperiodic molting conditions, and autumn migration. The intraspecific rhythm of migration in combination with environmental conditions along the migration track determines the timing of arrival to wintering sites. The threshold values of photoperiodic intervals of wintering and prenuptial molting in different species correspond to the latitude of hibernation and, possibly, determine this latitude.

Linking Electronic Health Record and Trauma Registry Data: Assessing the Value of Probabilistic Linkage

Electronic health record (EHR) systems contain large volumes of novel heterogeneous data that can be linked to trauma registry data to enable innovative research not possible with either data source alone. This article describes an approach for linking electronically extracted EHR data to trauma registry data at the institutional level and assesses the value of probabilistic linkage. Encounter data were independently obtained from the EHR data warehouse (n = 1,632) and the pediatric trauma registry (n = 1,829) at a Level I pediatric trauma center. Deterministic linkage was attempted using nine different combinations of medical record number (MRN), encounter identity (ID) (visit ID), age, gender, and emergency department (ED) arrival date. True matches from the best performing variable combination were used to create a gold standard, which was used to evaluate the performance of each variable combination, and to train a probabilistic algorithm that was separately used to link records unmatched by deterministic linkage and the entire cohort. Additional records that matched probabilistically were investigated via chart review and compared against records that matched deterministically. Deterministic linkage with exact matching on any three of MRN, encounter ID, age, gender, and ED arrival date gave the best yield of 1,276 true matches while an additional probabilistic linkage step following deterministic linkage yielded 110 true matches. These records contained a significantly higher number of boys compared to records that matched deterministically and etiology was attributable to mismatch between MRNs in the two data sets. Probabilistic linkage of the entire cohort yielded 1,363 true matches. The combination of deterministic and an additional probabilistic method represents a robust approach for linking EHR data to trauma registry data. This approach may be generalizable to studies involving other registries and databases.

Does wind speed and direction influence timing and route of a trans-hemispheric migratory songbird (purple martin) at a migration barrier?

Abstract The influence of weather on the departure decisions and routes of migratory birds can now be further investigated with the use of direct tracking methods. We tested hypotheses for migration departure decisions and flight trajectories by determining the influence of wind speed and direction at the Yucatan peninsula in spring on departure date, migratory route, and longitude of arrival at the northern Gulf coast of a trans-hemispheric migratory songbird, purple martin (Progne subis). Birds were equipped with geolocators at their breeding colony and 36 were recaptured upon return after spring migration. While southerly tailwinds with low wind speeds prevailed at the Yucatan during the period of passage, we found that daily wind speed and direction were still important predictors of departure date. However, wind conditions at departure did not predict longitude of arrival at the US gulf coast after crossing the gulf. Birds appeared to favour the shortest distance across the Gulf of Mexico, aided by consistent tailwinds, but may have corrected for wind drift so as to land at a longitude near 88°, reflecting the shortest distance across from the Yucatan staging areas. Considering their use prior to departure, high quality roost sites at the Yucatan peninsula would be important conservation targets for this declining aerial insectivore.

Az afrikai tamtam-ok avagy résdobok története és típusai

A general survey of data leads one to conclude that, even though the slit drum type of instruments, owing to their simple structure, could have developed in any place with abundant tree cover, the available data suggest that the introduction of this instrument type, or the underlying idea, into the equatorial belt can be linked to the migration of speakers of Austronesian languages. After its introduction, however, the instrument type developed in highly localized fnctions and forms. On this basis the widespread slit drum types of Equatorial Africa were passed on in an East-to-West direction; the absence of these instruments in Southern Africa and the date of arrival of Austronesian-speaking groups in Africa suggest the possibility that the appearance of slit drums in Africa can be dated to the period between the 6th and 10th centuries. The communicative function and prestige value of this instrument type led to its wide adoption among the ethnic groups of the Congo basin in particular. Contrastingly, a major hindrance to its wider distribution over West Africa may have been the presence of a rival candidate for its communicative function (the membranophonic „talking drums”), as well as changes in the animistic religious concepts linked to this instrument type, a result of widepread conversion to Islam from the 14th century. In Eastern Africa too conversion to Islam from the 11th century and the associated spead of the use of Swahili may have been a significant factor, given the fact that Swahili, while a Bantu language, is not a tone language, and thus the diminished communicative potential of these instruments, dependent on tone, as well as the shrinking ritual aspects of their use as symbols of chiefly authority must have led to the gradual decline of the use of slit drums in this region.

Early arrival at breeding grounds: Causes, costs and a trade‐off with overwintering latitude

Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to enhance breeding success. Adults, males and higher quality individuals typically arrive earlier, and across years, early arrival has been linked to warmer spring temperatures. However, the mechanisms and potential costs of early arrival are not well understood. To deepen the understanding of arrival date differences between individuals and years, we studied them in light of the preceding spring migration behaviour and atmospheric conditions en route. GPS and body acceleration (ACC) data were obtained for 35 adult white storks (Ciconia ciconia) over five years (2012-2016). ACC records were translated to energy expenditure estimates (overall dynamic body acceleration; ODBA) and to behavioural modes, and GPS fixes were coupled with environmental parameters. At the interindividual level (within years), early arrival was attributed primarily to departing earlier for migration and from more northern wintering sites (closer to breeding grounds), rather than to migration speed. In fact, early-departing birds flew slower, experienced weaker thermal uplifts and expended more energy during flight, but still arrived earlier, emphasizing the cost and the significance of early departure. Individuals that wintered further south arrived later at the breeding grounds but did not produce fewer fledglings, presumably due to positive carry-over effects of advantageous wintering conditions (increased precipitation, vegetation productivity and daylight time). Therefore, early arrival increased breeding success only after controlling for wintering latitude. Males arrived slightly ahead of females. Between years, late arrival was linked to colder temperatures en route through two different mechanisms: stronger headwinds causing slower migration and lower thermal uplifts resulting in longer stopovers. This study showed that distinct migratory properties underlie arrival time variation within and between years. It highlighted (a) an overlooked cost of early arrival induced by unfavourable atmospheric conditions during migration, (b) an important fitness trade-off in storks between arrival date and wintering habitat quality and (c) mechanistic explanations for the negative temperature-arrival date correlation in soaring birds. Such understanding of arrival time can facilitate forecasting migrating species responses to climate changes.

Scheduling trucks on factory premises

Abstract Trucks carrying just-in-time parts for assembly plants need to be processed on the factory premises in a speedy manner to guarantee smooth operations, improve supply chain performance, and avoid demurrages. Traditionally, plant managers and logistics providers have long been dissatisfied with extensive waiting times and severe on-site congestion. In this context, we tackle the problem of scheduling a set of trucks arriving at an assembly plant to deliver parts to specific dock doors on the factory premises. Trucks must visit a given set of doors, and they have individual arrival and due dates. They should be scheduled such that the total weighted tardiness is minimal. We propose a mixed-integer programming model and develop bounding procedures and heuristics, which are shown to perform well in a computational study, yielding small optimality gaps in under a minute of runtime. Our tests also reveal that door assignment and time window management have a substantial impact on on-premise congestion.

A multistate open robust design: population dynamics, reproductive effort, and phenology of sea turtles from tagging data

AbstractUnderstanding population dynamics, and how it is influenced by exogenous and endogenous factors, is important to the study and conservation of species. Moreover, for migratory species, the phenology and duration of use of a given location can also influence population structure and dynamics. For many species, breeding abundance, survival, and reproductive performance, as well as phenology of nesting, are often the most accessible, and therefore, practical elements of their life history to study. For a population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), we modeled population change for nesters and total adult females, survival, and breeding probability, from 25 yr of intensive tagging data. We modeled breeding probability as a function of the number of years since last breeding and tested for differences between neophyte and experienced nesters. For each year, we also estimated the number of clutches deposited per female, and phenology of use, for neophytes and experienced nesters. To implement the analysis, we developed a novel generalized multistate open robust design mark–recapture modeling framework, with parameters for survival and transition probabilities, and for each primary period, state structure and arrival, persistence, and detection probabilities. Derived parameters included abundance of observable and unobservable components of the population, residence time, expected arrival and departure periods, and per‐period intensity of study area use. Abundance of nesters increased over most of the time series. Survival probability was 0.935 ± 0.01 (estimate ± SE). Virtually all hawksbills skipped at least one year of nesting. Breeding probability increased by skipping a second year, but then decreased thereafter. Subsequent breeding probability was lower for neophyte nesters than for experienced nesters, but the effect was weaker than the effect of years since breeding. Clutch frequency varied by year, with no discernable pattern of differences between neophytes and experienced nesters. Mean arrival and departure dates also varied, with a slight shift of nesting activity to earlier in the season. The multistate open robust design model developed here provides a flexible framework for modeling the dynamics of structured migratory populations and the phenology and duration of their seasonal use of study areas.

Cargo logistics for a Notional Mars Base using Solar Electric Propulsion

The current aim of NASA's Journey to Mars is a stepwise approach towards landing humans on the Red Planet, culminating in a sustained presence. There are many recent studies on how this could be achieved in an evolvable and affordable manner. Most architectures begin with crewed missions to Phobos or Mars orbit in the mid-2030's, progress toward short-stay missions on the surface, and then culminate with regular, long-stay missions at a permanent outpost in the 2040's. A common factor of these architectures is that many robotic launches would be required in order to support the crew by prepositioning mission elements and other needed supplies. In this paper, the use of 150 kW reusable Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) tugs as a means to deliver elements both to orbit and the surface is studied. The conceptual SEP tugs make use of continued technology developments that were initialized through the Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission (ARRM). They would also be used to deliver food and supplies to sustain the crews similar to resupply missions for the International Space Station. These SEP tugs would cycle (with loitering) between staging orbits in cislunar space and Mars orbit. The concepts presented here focus on the use of SEP for purposes of delivering cargo, and could potentially be complimentary to many human Mars architectures presented in the literature.In order to characterize mission design parameters such as dates, masses, and durations, thousands of optimized trajectories were run using low-thrust optimization software. Solutions are found for all launch/arrival date pairs for the years 2038–2053. They can be displayed as contour plots called Bacon plots – the SEP equivalent of porkchop plots. Possible mission architecture concepts for a steady-state human presence on Mars along with the cargo missions needed to keep it functioning are described and the relevant mission parameters such as launch dates, masses, arrival dates, etc., are given. It was found that the reusable SEP tug architecture would be highly beneficial to the logistics of a sustainable Mars outpost.

Oceanographic conditions in wintering grounds affect arrival date and body condition in breeding female Magellanic penguins

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 601:253-267 (2018) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12668 Oceanographic conditions in wintering grounds affect arrival date and body condition in breeding female Magellanic penguins Ginger A. Rebstock*, P. Dee Boersma Center for Ecosystem Sentinels, Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1800, USA *Corresponding author: gar@uw.edu ABSTRACT: Overwintering conditions often impact an individual animal’s breeding performance in the following season. These so-called carry-over effects have been demonstrated in birds, including penguins. We studied carry-over effects in Magellanic penguins Spheniscus magellanicus, a species of conservation concern, breeding at Punta Tombo, Argentina, and wintering from northern Argentina to southern Brazil. We characterized oceanographic conditions in the penguins’ wintering grounds from 1982 to 2012 using principal component analysis on weekly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The first principal component represented a weak Rio de la Plata plume and warm SST. The Rio de la Plata plume carries cool, productive, low-salinity water north from the river mouth through the penguins’ wintering area. The plume is stronger (extends farther north) when winds blow from the southwest than when winds blow from the northeast. When the Rio de la Plata plume was weak in late winter, females arrived earlier to breed and were in better condition, likely because prey was concentrated in a smaller plume area closer to Punta Tombo. Females that arrived earlier laid eggs earlier, and females laid larger eggs when they arrived earlier and were in better condition. In contrast, body condition of breeding males did not vary with winter conditions. The effects on individual females varied, likely reflecting in part individual foraging ability. A weaker Rio de la Plata plume probably increased prey encounter rates closer to breeding colonies in winter, directly and indirectly improving female body condition, increasing egg size, and resulting in earlier arrival and egg laying. KEY WORDS: Carry-over effect · Spheniscus magellanicus · Magellanic penguin · Arrival date · Body condition · Egg-laying date · Egg size Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Rebstock GA, Boersma PD (2018) Oceanographic conditions in wintering grounds affect arrival date and body condition in breeding female Magellanic penguins. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 601:253-267. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12668 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 601. Online publication date: August 09, 2018 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2018 Inter-Research.

Arrival date and microorganisms in barn swallows

Migration between breeding sites and winter quarters constitute a major life history strategy in birds. The benefits of such migrations must at least equal the costs for such behavior to evolve and be maintained. We tested whether there was a relationship between abundance and diversity of microorganisms on nest lining feathers and timing of arrival by barn swallows Hirundo rustica. Nest lining feathers are chosen and transported by adult barn swallows to their nests just before and during egg laying, at a time when barn swallows have arrived weeks earlier, implying that any heterogeneity in abundance and diversity of microorganisms on feathers in nests must arise from feather preferences. There was a negative relationship between arrival date and the total number of fledglings showing that early arrival is advantageous. The arrival date of adult barn swallows was significantly positively correlated with the abundance of specific bacteria (Bacillus licheniformis) and positively correlated with the abundance of the fungus Trichoderma reesei and negatively correlated with the abundance of the fungus Mucor circinelloides. Moreover, we found a significant positive relationship between arrival date and mean total number of bacterial colonies in TSA medium. There was a significant negative relationship between arrival date and mean total number of bacterial colonies in FMA medium, and Simpson's diversity index of the abundance of bacteria in FMA medium. Such heterogeneity may arise from some microorganisms being beneficial, others detrimental and yet others benign and of no significant importance. In contrast, there was no significant relationship between arrival date and age of individuals. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that early arriving barn swallows differ in abundance and diversity of microorganisms from late arriving conspecifics, and that they choose feathers for their nests that differ in terms of microorganisms from those chosen by late arrival individuals.

Evaluating the potential for prezygotic isolation and hybridization between landlocked and anadromous alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) following secondary contact.

The recent increase in river restoration projects is altering habitat connectivity for many aquatic species, increasing the chance that previously isolated populations will come into secondary contact. Anadromous and landlocked alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) are currently undergoing secondary contact as a result of a fishway installation at Rogers Lake in Old Lyme, Connecticut. To determine the degree of prezygotic isolation and potential for hybridization between alewife life history forms, we constructed spawning time distributions for two anadromous and three landlocked alewife populations using otolith‐derived age estimates. In addition, we analyzed long‐term data from anadromous alewife migratory spawning runs to look for trends in arrival date and spawning time. Our results indicated that anadromous alewife spawned earlier and over a shorter duration than landlocked alewife, but 3%–13% of landlocked alewife spawning overlapped with the anadromous alewife spawning period. The degree of spawning time overlap was primarily driven by annual and population‐level variation in the timing of spawning by landlocked alewife, whereas the timing and duration of spawning for anadromous alewife were found to be relatively invariant among years in our study system. For alewife and many other anadromous fish species, the increase in fish passage river restoration projects in the coming decades will re‐establish habitat connectivity and may bring isolated populations into contact. Hybridization between life history forms may occur when prezygotic isolating mechanisms are minimal, leading to potentially rapid ecological and evolutionary changes in restored habitats.

A simple test helps pinpoint a baby's arrival date.

A simple test helps pinpoint a baby's arrival date.

Comparative reproductive ecology of co-occurring rare and common vireos in shrublands and woodlands

ABSTRACT Black-capped Vireos (Vireo atricapilla) and White-eyed Vireos (Vireo griseus) are closely related and ecologically similar. Despite these similarities, the White-eyed Vireo is widely distributed and common, whereas the Black-capped Vireo has a restricted breeding range and is currently federally endangered in the United States and Mexico. Here we address this apparent paradox with a comparative ecological study of co-occurring Black-capped and White-eyed vireos. We studied vireos in shrublands and woodlands in central Texas, USA, in 2013 and 2014. We used point count surveys (n = 256) and nest monitoring (n = 144) to determine arrival dates, settlement patterns, nest site selection, and nest survival relative to temporal and habitat factors. Additionally, we conducted reciprocal playback trials (n = 16) to test for the presence of interspecific aggression. White-eyed Vireos arrived first and established territories in both habitats with equal probability. Black-capped Vireos arrived after White-e...

Exploratory analyses ofmigration timing andmorphometrics of the European Robin(Erithacus rubecula)

AbstractOrnithological studies often rely on long-term bird ringing data sets as sources of information. However, basic descriptive statistics of raw data are rarely provided. In order to fill this gap, here we present the sixth item of a series of exploratory analyses of migration timing and body size measurements of the most frequent passerine species at a ringing station located in Central Hungary (1984–2017). First, we give a concise description of foreign ring recoveries of the European Robin in relation to Hungary. We then shift focus to data of 40,128 ringed and 11,231 recaptured individuals with 24,056 recaptures (several years recaptures in 313 individuals) derived from the ringing station, where birds have been trapped, handled and ringed with standardized methodology since 1984. Timing is described through annual and daily capture and recapture frequencies and their descriptive statistics. We show annual mean arrival dates within the study period and present the cumulative distributions of first captures with stopover durations. We present the distributions of wing, third primary, tail length and body mass, and the annual means of these variables. Furthermore, we show the distributions of individual fat and muscle scores, and the distributions of body mass within each fat score category.We distinguish the spring and autumn migratory periods and age groups (i.e. juveniles and adults). Our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the analysed variables. However, we do not aim to interpret the obtained results, merely to draw attention to interesting patterns that may be worth exploring in detail. Data used here are available upon request for further analyses.

Exploratory analyses of migration timing and morphometrics of the Thrush Nightingale (Luscinia luscinia)

Abstract Ornithological studies often rely on long-term bird ringing data sets as sources of information. However, basic descriptive statistics of raw data are rarely provided. In order to fill this gap, here we present the seventh item of a series of exploratory analyses of migration timing and body size measurements of the most frequent Passerine species at a ringing station located in Central Hungary (1984–2017). First, we give a concise description of foreign ring recoveries of the Thrush Nightingale in relation to Hungary. We then shift focus to data of 1138 ringed and 547 recaptured individuals with 1557 recaptures (several years recaptures in 76 individuals) derived from the ringing station, where birds have been trapped, handled and ringed with standardized methodology since 1984. Timing is described through annual and daily capture and recapture frequencies and their descriptive statistics. We show annual mean arrival dates within the study period and present the cumulative distributions of first captures with stopover durations. We present the distributions of wing, third primary, tail length and body mass, and the annual means of these variables. Furthermore, we show the distributions of individual fat and muscle scores, and the distributions of body mass within each fat score category. We present data only for the autumn migratory period since there were only 27 spring captures in the study period. We distinguish the age groups (i.e. juveniles and adults) in the analyses. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the analysed variables. However, we do not aim to interpret the obtained results, merely to draw attention to interesting patterns that may be worth exploring in detail. Data used here are available upon request for further analyses.

Higher rates of prebreeding condition gain positively impacts clutch size: A mechanistic test of the condition‐dependent individual optimization model

Abstract A combination of timing of and body condition (i.e., mass) at arrival on the breeding grounds interact to influence the optimal combination of the timing of reproduction and clutch size in migratory species. This relationship has been formalized by Rowe et al. in a condition‐dependent individual optimization model (American Naturalist, 1994, 143, 689‐722), which has been empirically tested and validated in avian species with a capital‐based breeding strategy. This model makes a key, but currently untested prediction; that variation in the rate of body condition gain will shift the optimal combination of laying date and clutch size. This prediction is essential because it implies that individuals can compensate for the challenges associated with late timing of arrival or poor body condition at arrival on the breeding grounds through adjustment of their life history investment decisions, in an attempt to maximize fitness. Using an 11‐year data set in arctic‐nesting common eiders (Somateria mollissima), quantification of fattening rates using plasma triglycerides (an energetic metabolite), and a path analysis approach, we test this prediction of this optimization model; controlling for arrival date and body condition, females that fatten more quickly will adjust the optimal combination of lay date and clutch size, in favour of a larger clutch size. As predicted, females fattening at higher rates initiated clutches earlier and produced larger clutch sizes, indicating that fattening rate is an important factor in addition to arrival date and body condition in predicting individual variation in reproductive investment. However, there was no direct effect of fattening rate on clutch size (i.e., birds laying on the same date had similar clutch sizes, independent of their fattening rate). Instead, fattening rate indirectly affected clutch size via earlier lay dates, thus not supporting the original predictions of the optimization model. Our results demonstrate that variation in the rate of condition gain allows individuals to shift flexibly along the seasonal decline in clutch size to presumably optimize the combination of laying date and clutch size. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Data-Driven Computational Model to Assess the Risk of Epidemics in Global Mass Gatherings

ObjectiveTo develop a computational model to assess the risk of epidemics in global mass gatherings and evaluate the impact of various measures of prevention and control of infectious diseases.IntroductionGlobal Mass gatherings (MGs) such as Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, and Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah), attract millions of people from different countries. The gathering of a large population in a proximity facilitates transmission of infectious diseases [1]. Attendees arrive from different geographical areas with diverse disease history and immune responses. The associated travel patterns with global events can contribute to a further disease spread affecting a large number of people within a short period and lead to a potential pandemic. Global MGs pose serious health threats and challenges to the hosting countries and home countries of the participants [2]. Advanced planning and disease surveillance systems are required to control health risks in these events. The success of computational models in different areas of public health and epidemiology motivates using these models in MGs to study transmission of infectious diseases and assess the risk of epidemics. Computational models enable simulation and analysis of different disease transmission scenarios in global MGs. Epidemic models can be used to evaluate the impact of various measures of prevention and control of infectious diseases.MethodsThe annual event of the Hajj is selected to illustrate the main aspects of the proposed model and to address the associated challenges. Every year, more than two million pilgrims from over 186 countries arrive in Makkah to perform Hajj with the majority arriving by air. Foreign pilgrims can stay at one of the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah up to 30-35 days prior the starting date of the Hajj. The long duration of the arrival phase of the Hajj allows a potential epidemic to proceed in the population of international pilgrims. Stochastic SEIR (Susceptible−Exposed−Infected−Recovered) agent-based model is developed to simulate the disease transmission among pilgrims. The agent-based model is used to simulate pilgrims and their interactions during the various phases of the Hajj. Each agent represents a pilgrim and maintains a record of demographic data (gender, country of origin, age), health data (infectivity, susceptibility, number of days being exposed or infected), event related data (location, arrival date and time), and precautionary or health-related behaviors.Each pilgrim can be either healthy but susceptible to a disease, exposed who are infected but cannot transmit the infection, or infectious (asymptomatic or symptomatic) who are infected and can transmit the disease to other susceptibles. Exposed individuals transfer to the infectious compartment after 1/α days, and infectious individuals will recover and gain immunity to that disease after 1/γ days. Where α is the latent period and γ is the infectious period. Moving susceptible individuals to exposed compartment depends on a successful disease transmission given a contact with an infectious individual. The disease transmission rate is determined by the contact rate and thetransmission probability per contact. Contact rate and mixing patterns are defined by probabilistic weights based on the features of infectious pilgrims and the duration and setting of the stage where contacts are taking place. The initial infections are seeded in the population using two scenarios (Figure 1) to measure the effects of changing, the timing for introducing a disease into the population and the likelihood that a particular flight will arrive with one or more infected individuals.ResultsThe results showed that the number of initial infections is influenced by increasing the value of λ and selecting starting date within peak arrival days. When starting from the first day, the average size of the initial infectious ranges from 0.05% to 1% of the total arriving pilgrims. Using the SEIR agent-based model, a simulation of the H1N1 Influenza epidemic was completed for the 35-days arrival stage of the Hajj. The epidemic is initiated with one infectious pilgrim per flight resulting in infected 0.5% of the total arriving pilgrims. As pilgrims spend few hours at the airport, the results obtained from running the epidemic model showed only new cases of susceptible individuals entering the exposed state in a range of 0.20% to 0.35% of total susceptibles. The number of new cases is reduced by almost the same rate of the number of infectious individuals following precautionary behaviors.ConclusionsA data-driven stochastic SEIR agent-based model is developed to simulate disease spread at global mass gatherings. The proposed model can provide initial indicators of infectious disease epidemic at these events and evaluate the possible effects of intervention measures and health-related behaviors. The proposed model can be generalized to model the spread of various diseases in different mass gatherings, as it allows different factors to vary and entered as parameters.

The ʿAssāf family of Miʿilya: an example of a Greek Catholic family in the Western Upper Galilee, eighteenth–twenty-first centuries

ABSTRACTThis article sheds light on the Melkite Catholics in Galilee. It strengthens the assumption that many Melkite Catholics arrived in the Acre region during Ḍāhir al-ʿUmar's reign (1730s–1775), and it shows that relations between the Christians and adherents of other faiths were good enough in day-to-day life, allowing the Christians to develop their business and to share important properties with Muslims. It also shows that some familial traditions have been preserved since the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries; the branch of the ʿAssāf family discussed here preserved the tradition of higher education and business. This study proves that in the village of Miʿilyā, and probably in other Christian villages, there is a relationship between the arrival date of the families, the location of their quarters in the villages and the feasts that they are responsible for. In Miʿilyā, the earlier families settled the castle and were responsible for the most important feast days.