Areas Of Eastern Africa Research Articles

Global genomic surveillance of monkeypox virus.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is endemic in Western and Central Africa and, in May 2022, a clade IIb lineage (B.1) caused a global outbreak outside Africa, resulting in its detection in 116 countries/territories. To understand the global phylogenetics of MPXV, we analysed all available MPXV sequences, including 10,670 sequences from 65 countries collected between 1958 and 2024. Our analysis reveals high mobility of clade I viruses within Central Africa, sustained human-to-human transmission of clade IIb lineage A viruses within the Eastern Mediterranean region, and distinct mutational signatures that can distinguish sustained human-to-human from animal-to-animal transmission. Moreover, distinct clade I sequences from Sudan suggest local MPXV circulation in areas of Eastern Africa over the past four decades. Our study underscores the importance of genomic surveillance in tracking spatiotemporal dynamics of MXPV clades and the need to strengthen such surveillance, including in some parts of Eastern Africa.

Computational biogeographic distribution of the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) moth in eastern Africa

The fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith, has caused massive maize losses since its attack on the African continent in 2016, particularly in east Africa. In this study, we predicted the spatial distribution (established habitat) of FAW in five east African countries viz., Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Ethiopia. We used FAW occurrence observations for three years i.e., 2018, 2019, and 2020, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and bioclimatic, land surface temperature (LST), solar radiation, wind speed, elevation, and landscape structure data (i.e., land use and land cover and maize harvested area) as explanatory variables. The explanatory variables were used as inputs into a variable selection experiment to select the least correlated ones that were then used to predict FAW establishment, i.e., suitability areas (very low suitability – very high suitability). The shared socio-economic pathways, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050 were used to predict the effect of future climate scenarios on FAW establishment. The results demonstrated that FAW establishment areas in eastern Africa were based on the model strength and true performance (area under the curve: AUC = 0.87), but not randomly. Moreover, ∼27% of eastern Africa is currently at risk of FAW establishment. Predicted FAW risk areas are expected to increase to ∼29% (using each of the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) in the year 2030, and to ∼38% (using SSP2-4.5) and ∼35% (using SSP5-8.5) in the year 2050 climate scenarios. The LULC, particularly croplands and maize harvested area, together with temperature and precipitation bioclimatic variables provided the highest permutation importance in determining the occurrence and establishment of the pest in eastern Africa. Specifically, the study revealed that FAW was sensitive to isothermality (Bio3) rather than being sensitive to a single temperature value in the year. FAW preference ranges of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and maize harvested area were observed, implying the establishment of a once exotic pest in critical maize production regions in eastern Africa. It is recommended that future studies should thus embed the present study's modeling results into a dynamic platform that provides near-real-time predictions of FAW spatial occurrence and risk at the farm scale.

Dietary preference of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in south-eastern Kenya.

The conversion of natural ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities has led to the destruction of natural habitats and to the deterioration of habitat quality. Top predators particularly respond sensitively to changes in habitat structures, including the availability of prey. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus prefers small‐medium‐sized, wild ungulate prey due to the cheetah's morphological adaptations. However, the majority of the species’ population is found beyond protected areas, where habitat structures, species abundances, and community composition are highly influenced by human activities. Only few studies have analyzed the diet preference of cheetahs in relation to prey availability and abundance for rangelands beyond protected areas in Eastern Africa. The study aimed to determine cheetah prey preference in the rangelands of south‐eastern Kenya based on scat analyses. We compared dietary preference of cheetah with prey availability. For this purpose, we conducted standardized game counts. We analyzed 27 cheetah scat samples collected across the same study area where we also conducted game counts. We found that Grant's gazelle Gazella granti contributed the highest portion of cheetah's diet, although Thomson's gazelle Gazella thomsonii was the most abundant medium‐sized ungulate prey in the study areas. We also recorded two primate species, yellow baboon Papio cynocephalus and vervet monkey Chlorocebus pygerythrus, as well as the rock hyrax Procavia capensis in the cheetah diet. These species have never been documented as cheetah prey before. Furthermore, our results document livestock as potential prey for cheetahs. These observations underline that cheetah use diverse prey in rangelands outside protected areas, and that the abundance of specific prey does not influence cheetah prey preference.

Prevalence, Risk Factors for Exposure, and Socio-Economic Impact of Peste Des Petits Ruminants in Karenga District, Karamoja Region, Uganda.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a disease caused by small ruminant morbillivirus (SRM), is highly contagious with high morbidity and mortality. Controlling PPR requires a proper understanding of the epidemiological dynamics and impact of the disease in a range of geographical areas and management systems. Karenga district, located in the pastoral region of Karamoja in northeastern Uganda, and in the vicinity of Kidepo Valley National Park, is characterised by free cross-border (South Sudan and Kenya) livestock trade, communal grazing, and transhumance. This study was conducted from November through December 2020 to determine the seroprevalence of anti-SRM antibodies, the risk factors associated with the occurrence, and the socio-economic impact of PPR in Karenga. A total of 22 kraals were randomly selected from all administrative units, and 684 small ruminants (sheep = 115, goats = 569) were selected for serum collection using systematic random sampling. Exposure to SRM was determined using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The overall true seroprevalence of SRM antibodies was high, 51.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 45–52.6). Multivariate logistic regression for risk factors showed that seroprevalence varied significantly by location (26.8% to 87.8%, odds ratio (OR) ≤ 14.5). The odds of exposure to SRM were higher in sheep (73.9%) than in goats (43.8%) (OR = 1.7, p = 0.08), and seropositivity was higher in animals greater than two years old (65.5%; OR = 11.1, p < 0.001), or those one to two years old (24.7%; OR = 1.6, p = 0.2), compared to small ruminants less than one year old (16.1%). Using participatory epidemiology approaches (semi-structured interviews, clinical examinations, pairwise ranking, proportional piling, impact matrix scoring) with 15 key informants and 22 focus groups of pastoralists, PPR was the second most important small ruminant disease: relative morbidity 14%, relative mortality 9%, and case fatality rate 78%, and impacted productivity mainly in terms of treatment costs, mortality, marketability, and conflicts. These findings provide evidence to support the implementation of disease surveillance and control strategies to mitigate the impact of PPR in Karamoja and other pastoral areas in eastern Africa.

Horizontal Transmission of the Symbiont Microsporidia MB in Anopheles arabiensis.

The recently discovered Anopheles symbiont, Microsporidia MB, has a strong malaria transmission-blocking phenotype in Anopheles arabiensis, the predominant Anopheles gambiae species complex member in many active transmission areas in eastern Africa. The ability of Microsporidia MB to block Plasmodium transmission together with vertical transmission and avirulence makes it a candidate for the development of a symbiont-based malaria transmission blocking strategy. We investigate the characteristics and efficiencies of Microsporidia MB transmission between An. arabiensis mosquitoes. We show that Microsporidia MB is not transmitted between larvae but is effectively transmitted horizontally between adult mosquitoes. Notably, Microsporidia MB was only found to be transmitted between male and female An. arabiensis, suggesting sexual horizontal transmission. In addition, Microsporidia MB cells were observed infecting the An. arabiensis ejaculatory duct. Female An. arabiensis that acquire Microsporidia MB horizontally are able to transmit the symbiont vertically to their offspring. We also investigate the possibility that Microsporidia MB can infect alternate hosts that live in the same habitats as their An. arabiensis hosts, but find no other non-anopheline hosts. Notably, Microsporidia MB infections were found in another primary malaria African vector, Anopheles funestus s.s. The finding that Microsporidia MB can be transmitted horizontally is relevant for the development of dissemination strategies to control malaria that are based on the targeted release of Microsporidia MB infected Anopheles mosquitoes.

Challenges and Gaps on Pastoral Land System: Ethiopian Focus

Pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in eastern Africa and elsewhere on the continent have long been regarded as peripheries, especially in economic terms, but also in terms of social and cultural accomplishment governments do little to formally recognize or integrate pastoral lands as critical parts of rural livelihood systems and economic development models. Instead, many states give preference to other alternatives. Aiming to search for comprehensive suitable policy line for Ethiopian pastoral land system, the study employed qualitative data analysis methodology with primary and secondary sources by comparative approach. Though lowland in Ethiopia holds 60% of total land mass and the future of the nation, the normative and institutional framework is unable to govern adequately in manner to effectively utilize the potential. The failure of national law to recognize the customary rights of pastoralist groups, policy and strategy gaps, lack of registration and certification communal land holding rights put the pastoral tenure un secure and has left those communities highly vulnerable. The main contemporary problem in Ethiopian pastoral societies, however, is that various indigenous forms of tenure that no doubt evolved as indicated above now are increasingly subordinated to unitary national land tenure legislation. The situation in the pastoral areas is either ignored or very superficially treated. The critical thinking and appropriate legal as well as institutional framework with the right policy direction is neccassarily needed by taking lesson, like recognition customery land tenure, enactment of detailed laws which adequately protect the interests of pastoral community, registration and certification of communal holding rights, legitimazing the power of traditional institutions and authorities from successful countries. This can be used as appropraite behicle to eradiction of poverty and shortens the journey towards growth and transformation of the country.

Year Round Feed and Fodder Availability in Smallholder Dairy Farms across High and Low Altitude Areas in Eastern Africa

Feed-year strategies involve matching the cycles of dairy production with the changing availabilities of all sources of nutrients over time. Therefore, an understanding of seasonal variation in availability of forage resources is important in future planning and development of appropriate technologies to assure resilience of smallholder dairy systems to seasonal changes. This study was carried out to: 1) evaluate the current pattern of seasonal variation in forage availability in smallholder dairy farms, and 2) assess seasonal variation in year-round forage based feeding strategies in smallholder dairy farms in Eastern Africa. Data was collected from a purposive representative sample of 400 smallholder dairy farmers through cross-sectional and observational studies. The Feed Assessment Tool (FEAST) was used to capture the season’s effect (wet and dry) across high and low altitude areas in Kenya and Tanzania from 2016-2018. Data were analyzed using the generalized linear model (GLMM) procedure of SPSS 21.0 (Chicago, IL, USA), using models that included the fixed effects and random effects; and FEAST Version 2.21. Results showed that location (country), agro-ecological zone and season had a significant influence (p ≤ 0.05) on year-round rainfall variability. Availability and utilization of concentrate feeds, green and dry crop residues, improved fodder, pasture and legume forage throughout the year, were significantly influenced (p ≤ 0.05) by location, agro-ecological zone, seasons and production systems. Correlation between the forage resources revealed highly significant (p ≤ 0.001) and positive relationships in availability and usage across the two countries. From this study, rainfall variability was crucial in determining sources and year-round variation in availability and utilization of forages. Therefore, different seasonality driven site, region or country specific year-round feeding interventions and strategies could be applied depending upon type, source, quantity (availability) and quality of feeds to overcome seasonal milk fluctuations in smallholder dairy farms in Eastern Africa.

Malaria patterns across altitudinal zones of Mount Elgon following intensified control and prevention programs in Uganda

BackgroundMalaria remains a major tropical vector-borne disease of immense public health concern owing to its debilitating effects in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past 30 years, the high altitude areas in Eastern Africa have been reported to experience increased cases of malaria. Governments including that of the Republic of Uganda have responded through intensifying programs that can potentially minimize malaria transmission while reducing associated fatalities. However, malaria patterns following these intensified control and prevention interventions in the changing climate remains widely unexplored in East African highland regions. This study thus analyzed malaria patterns across altitudinal zones of Mount Elgon, Uganda.MethodsTimes-series data on malaria cases (2011–2017) from five level III local health centers occurring across three altitudinal zones; low, mid and high altitude was utilized. Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation regression and Mann Kendall trend test were used to analyze malaria patterns. Vegetation attributes from the three altitudinal zones were analyzed using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to determine the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to project malaria patterns for a 7 year period.ResultsMalaria across the three zones declined over the study period. The hotspots for malaria were highly variable over time in all the three zones. Rainfall played a significant role in influencing malaria burdens across the three zones. Vegetation had a significant influence on malaria in the higher altitudes. Meanwhile, in the lower altitude, human population had a significant positive correlation with malaria cases.ConclusionsDespite observed decline in malaria cases across the three altitudinal zones, the high altitude zone became a malaria hotspot as cases variably occurred in the zone. Rainfall played the biggest role in malaria trends. Human population appeared to influence malaria incidences in the low altitude areas partly due to population concentration in this zone. Malaria control interventions ought to be strengthened and strategically designed to achieve no malaria cases across all the altitudinal zones. Integration of climate information within malaria interventions can also strengthen eradication strategies of malaria in such differentiated altitudinal zones.

Niche change analysis as a tool to inform management of two invasive species in Eastern Africa

AbstractSignificant progress has been made in providing guidelines and recommendations for assessing the ecological niche, stage of invasion, and probability of invasive alien plant species (IAPS) potential distribution in space and time. We followed these recommendations by developing and comparing ordination and species distribution models (SDMs) of two important woody IAPS in Eastern Africa,Prosopis julifloraandLantana camara, and interpreting the results to inform IAPS management. The two species differ in their invasion history in Eastern Africa; whileL. camarawas widely introduced there in the 19th century,P. juliflorawas only planted at selected locations in the 1970s and 1980s. For the SDMs, machine learning algorithms were used to generate one ensemble model each forP. julifloraandL. camara. For ordination, we used bioclimatic variables, performed a principal component analysis, and compared the native and global niches of the species with the Eastern African niche. Niches varied substantially depending on the percentage of marginal climates excluded from the models. Additional analysis of the local niches surrounding the originalP. julifloraplantations showed that they are complementary, which may have led to an overestimation of regional niche filling. While niche expansion was absent or small depending on the percentage of marginal climates excluded, analysis of the stages of invasion suggested thatP. julifloramay have started to adapt to novel climatic conditions and thatL. camarais approaching a pseudo‐stable equilibrium in Eastern Africa. The SDMs showed that large areas in Eastern Africa that have not yet been invaded byP. julifloraare suitable or will become suitable with climate change. ForL. camara, the global SDM predicted a considerably larger suitable area than the Eastern African one, raising uncertainty about the areas to be included in a regional management strategy. Thus, combining ordination and SDMs and integrating a geographic component into ordination is useful in assessing IAPS invasion stages and potential niche shifts, and the results help inform IAPS policy and management. The combined approach can also serve to guide experimental studies addressing divergences between results generated with the different approaches.

Oxygen isotope analyses of ungulate tooth enamel confirm low seasonality of rainfall contributed to the African Humid Period in Somalia

During the African Humid Period (AHP), between ~14 and 5 ka, north and eastern Africa were much wetter and greener than they are today. Although the AHP has long been attributed to an increase in rainfall driven by orbital forcing, many details regarding the timing, pacing, and contributing moisture sources remain to be determined, especially for eastern Africa. Recent research suggests that both Atlantic and Indian Ocean moisture contributed to the AHP in eastern Africa. Large mammalian faunas from two Late Pleistocene/Holocene rockshelter sites in southern Somalia, Gogoshiis Qabe and Guli Waabayo, provide an unusual opportunity to investigate the AHP in an area of eastern Africa that is orographically isolated from Atlantic Ocean moisture. To track changes in aridity at these sites, we used the oxygen isotope aridity index, which exploits the difference in tooth enamel oxygen isotope (δ18O) values between evaporation insensitive obligate drinkers and evaporation sensitive non-obligate drinkers to calculate a water deficit value. Water deficit values calculated from dik-dik (Madoqua spp.; non-obligate drinkers) and warthog (Phacochoerus spp.; obligate drinkers) tooth enamel δ18O values at Gogoshiis Qabe and Guli Waabayo are in agreement and progressively increase toward the present. Additionally, two of three direct dated serially-sampled warthog teeth (ID 4032 and 4033) from Guli Waabayo demonstrate low seasonality of rainfall during much of the AHP (range in δ18O ≤ 1.8‰). One tooth (ID 4035) with high amplitude variability in δ18O values (3.1‰) dates to 8470 ± 66 cal yr B.P., a period identified as a lowstand in several lake level records. Our results suggest that regions isolated from Atlantic Ocean moisture likely experienced a less-pronounced AHP than those receiving moisture from multiple sources but indicate less seasonal variability than present. Our findings also support the presence of climate variability within the AHP.

Bird community response to landscape and foliage arthropod variables in sun coffee of central Kenyan highlands

Land conversion represents a serious threat to terrestrial biodiversity and effective conservation in human-dominated landscapes requires an understanding of the relationship between spatial heterogeneity and biodiversity. Coffee is the most valuable tropical export in the world with the capacity to affect biodiversity on a large scale, and much of the world's coffee is grown in open plantations (sun coffee), where little research has documented how landscape structure or food availability affect bird diversity. We examined the effects of both landscape characteristics and foliage arthropod abundance on bird species richness, total bird abundance and the abundance of foraging guilds in sun coffee plantations of central Kenyan highlands. Variation in the local landscape appeared to have little effect on bird abundance, while the foliage arthropod community, particularly number of arthropod orders, may have a strong impact on omnivore and insectivore abundance in sun coffee. These results do not mean small scale fragments or landscape composition is unimportant to bird communities in our region for several reasons, including the high model uncertainty that may indicate an important missing variable, the habitat complexity and presence of large forest reserves around our study sites, and the single scale at which our variables were tested. Our results indicate that farm managers wanting to increase bird abundance, especially omnivores and insectivores, should consider balancing the need to eradicate coffee pests and leaving an intact arthropod community that likely increases these guilds. Further study is needed to validate these patterns, which may have strong implications for bird biodiversity in agricultural settings across other areas in eastern Africa.

Perception and attitude of pastoralists on livestock-wildlife interactions around Awash National Park, Ethiopia: implication for biodiversity conservation

IntroductionPastoral livestock share grazing areas and watering points with wildlife around the protected areas in Eastern Africa. This causes a high degree of livestock-wildlife interactions, leading to conflicts between the local community and park staff. Thus, understanding the perception and attitude of local people towards livestock-wildlife interaction is very crucial to optimize both livestock production and biodiversity conservation in protected areas. This paper presents the perception and attitude of local community towards livestock-wildlife interactions around Awash National Park (ANP), Ethiopia.MethodsInterview to 180 randomly selected households, representing Afar, Ittu, and Kereyu ethnic groups living around ANP, was conducted from August to December 2015 using a semi-structured questionnaire. Data on community attitude towards wildlife, livestock production systems, and its constraints were collected through focus group- and key informant discussions. We used ordinal logistic regression model to analyze community attitude towards wildlife conservation.ResultsRespondents ranked feed shortage (0.38), lack of water (0.32), and climate change (0.30) as the major constraints of livestock production around ANP. A high degree of conflict (79%; χ2 = 24.09; df = 2; P = 0.000) between the local community and park was recorded.About 73% of the households would be ready to live in harmony with the park. However, 85% of park staff considered the community as a threat, due to high livestock grazing pressure and illegal park resource use. Overall, community attitude towards wildlife significantly varied (χ2 = 46.28; df = 4; P = 0.00) particularly due to educational level (χ2 = 15.96; df = 6; P = 0.014), income source (χ2 = 16.77; df = 2; P = 0.00), and distance of household from ANP (χ2 = 20.51; df = 4; P = 0.00). The logistic regression model revealed that ethnic group, education, benefit obtained, and conflict with the park were significantly associated with attitude towards wildlife (χ215 = 76.62; df = 16; P = 0.000).ConclusionsMajority of respondents showed positive attitude towards wildlife, implying a better chance to mobilize the community for conservation activities in the park. Thus, expansion of formal and adult education as well as livelihood diversification strategies that could benefit the pastoral community would help to improve community attitude towards wildlife so that both wildlife conservation and livestock production can be optimized around ANP.

Traumatic Brain Injury in a Rural and an Urban Tanzanian Hospital—A Comparative, Retrospective Analysis Based on Computed Tomography

In a resource-poor environment such as rural East Africa, expensive medical devices such as computed tomographic (CT) scanners are rare. The CT scanner at the rural Haydom Lutheran Hospital (HLH) in Tanzania therefore offers a unique chance to observe possible differences with urban medical centers in the disease pattern of trauma-related cranial pathologies. The purpose of this study was to compare traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) between a rural and an urban area of Tanzania. HLH has 350 beds and one CT scanner. The urban Aga Khan Hospital is a private hospital with 80 beds and one CT scanner. This was a retrospective study. Data of 248 patients at HLH and of 432 patients at Aga Khan Hospital with TBI could be collected. The prevalence of TBI was significantly higher in the rural area compared to the urban area (34.2% vs. 21.9%, P < 0.0001). TBI due to violence was noted to occur more frequently at HLH, whereas road traffic accidents were more frequent at the Aga Khan Hospital. The number of patients showing a normal CT result was significantly higher in the urban area (53.0% vs. 35.9%, P < 0.0001). Bone fractures (35.9% vs. 15.7%, P < 0.0001) and pneumocephalus (6.9% vs. 0.9%, P < 0.0001) were diagnosed significantly more frequently in the rural survey. Soft tissue swelling (11.6% vs. 1.2%, P < 0.0001) and frontal sinus injuries (7.4% vs. 0.4%, P < 0.0001) were observed significantly more often in the urban setting. This study documents the burden of TBI and the differences in TBI-related CT diagnoses and their incidence between urban and rural areas in Eastern Africa. These results are important as they demonstrate that patients with severe TBI are not a primarily urban concern. Management of TBI should be included in the training curricula for health personnel alike irrespective of whether their workplace is primarily urban or rural.

Serosurvey of Dogs for Human, Livestock, and Wildlife Pathogens, Uganda

Serosurvey of Dogs for Human, Livestock, and Wildlife Pathogens, Uganda

It Takes Two to Tango: Activation of Cortex and Lumbosacral Circuitry Restores Locomotion in Spinal Cord Injury

In a resource-poor environment such as rural East Africa, expensive medical devices such as computed tomographic (CT) scanners are rare. The CT scanner at the rural Haydom Lutheran Hospital (HLH) in Tanzania therefore offers a unique chance to observe possible differences with urban medical centers in the disease pattern of trauma-related cranial pathologies. The purpose of this study was to compare traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) between a rural and an urban area of Tanzania.HLH has 350 beds and one CT scanner. The urban Aga Khan Hospital is a private hospital with 80 beds and one CT scanner. This was a retrospective study. Data of 248 patients at HLH and of 432 patients at Aga Khan Hospital with TBI could be collected.The prevalence of TBI was significantly higher in the rural area compared to the urban area (34.2% vs. 21.9%, P < 0.0001). TBI due to violence was noted to occur more frequently at HLH, whereas road traffic accidents were more frequent at the Aga Khan Hospital. The number of patients showing a normal CT result was significantly higher in the urban area (53.0% vs. 35.9%, P < 0.0001). Bone fractures (35.9% vs. 15.7%, P < 0.0001) and pneumocephalus (6.9% vs. 0.9%, P < 0.0001) were diagnosed significantly more frequently in the rural survey. Soft tissue swelling (11.6% vs. 1.2%, P < 0.0001) and frontal sinus injuries (7.4% vs. 0.4%, P < 0.0001) were observed significantly more often in the urban setting.This study documents the burden of TBI and the differences in TBI-related CT diagnoses and their incidence between urban and rural areas in Eastern Africa. These results are important as they demonstrate that patients with severe TBI are not a primarily urban concern. Management of TBI should be included in the training curricula for health personnel alike irrespective of whether their workplace is primarily urban or rural.

The full road to impact: the experience of the Global Environment Facility Fourth Overall Performance Study

The Evaluation Office of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has developed an approach to impact evaluation that aims to go beyond causalities and counterfactuals into replication, up-scaling and longer-term lasting systemic changes. Starting from the OECD Development Assistance Committee glossary definition of impact and building on a theory-based approach to evaluation, several methods and tools have been developed that cover various aspects of the long road from outcomes to impact. This article presents both the development over time of these methods and tools and methodological considerations. Two full-scale impact evaluations were undertaken: the first on protected areas in Eastern Africa and the second on the GEF portfolio of projects supporting the removal from production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances in countries with economies in transition. In addition several other impact studies were undertaken. The evaluations of various aspects of the progress from outcome to impact were gathered and as far as possible aggregated in the Fourth Overall Performance Study of the GEF, which was presented in 2009 to the replenishment process of the GEF. An overview is presented of progress toward impact of the GEF portfolio of finished projects on climate change mitigation and on stemming the loss of biodiversity. The Office will continue to develop and use the variety of impact evaluation tools at its disposal.

Impact of Drought and HIV on Child Nutrition in Eastern and Southern Africa

Intermittent food insecurity due to drought and the effects of HIV/AIDS affect child nutritional status in sub-Saharan Africa. In Southern Africa in 2001-3 drought and HIV were previously shown to interact to cause substantial deterioration in child nutrition. With additional data available from Southern and Eastern Africa, the size of the effects of drought and HIV on child underweight up to 2006 were estimated. To determine short- and long-term trends in child malnutrition in Eastern and Southern Africa and how these are affected by drought and HIV. A secondary epidemiologic analysis was conducted of area-level data derived from national surveys, generally from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. Data from countries in the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda) and Southern Africa (Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) were compiled from available survey results. Secondary data were obtained on weight-for-age for preschool children, HIV prevalence data were derived from antenatal clinic surveillance, and food security data were obtained from United Nations sources (Food and Agriculture Organization, International Labour Office, and others). Overall trends in child nutrition are improving as national averages; the improvement is slowed but not stopped by the effects of intermittent droughts. In Southern Africa, the prevalence rates of underweight showed signs of recovery from the 2001-03 crisis. As expected, food production and price indicators were related (although weakly) to changes in malnutrition prevalence; the association was strongest between changes in food production and price indicators and changes in malnutrition prevalence in the following year. Areas of higher HIV prevalence had better nutrition (in both country groups), but this counterintuitive association is removed after controlling for socioeconomic status. In low-HIV areas in Eastern Africa, nutrition deteriorates during drought, with prevalence rates of underweight 5 to 12 percentage points higher than in nondrought periods; less difference was seen in high-HIV areas, in contrast to Southern Africa, where drought and HIV together interact to produce higher prevalence rates of underweight. Despite severe intermittent droughts and the HIV/AIDS epidemic (now declining but still with very high prevalence rates), underlying trends in child underweight are improving when drought is absent: resilience may be better than feared. Preventing effects of drought and HIV could release potential for improvement and, when supported by national nutrition programs, help to accelerate the rates of improvement, now generally averaging around 0.3 percentage points per year, to those needed to meet Millennium Development Goals (0.4 to 0.9 percentage points per year).

Human security in pastoralist areas of Eastern Africa

Pastoralist groups in Eastern Africa are extremely vulnerable as a result of inter-community conflicts, the harsh terrain, and unfavourable climatic conditions. They have been neglected by successive regimes on matters of socio-economic development. At present pastoralist areas in Eastern Africa have the lowest literacy rates and insufficient health care facilities. This article interrogates the historical relationship between governments, humanitarian groups and pastoralists. It notes with great concern that pastoralists have been branded as hunger-stricken populations with insignificant economic potential that can be harnessed from their day-to-day livelihood. They are treated as sedentary populations who need a constant supply of relief food to keep going. In order to reverse these misconceptions, the article places emphasis on mitigating the threats of intra-community conflicts, diseases and natural disasters through investment in social schemes and infrastructure in order to open up the areas for service provision. Indeed, for a majority of the pastoralists, insecurity comes not so much from traditional security concerns, but from human insecurity concerns about their survival, preservation of their lifestyle and well-being in a day-to-day context.

KenSea – tsunami damage modelling for coastal areas of Kenya

On 26 December 2004, the eastern part of the Indian Ocean was hit by a tremendous tsunami created by a submarine earthquake of magnitude 9.1 on the Richter scale off the west coast of Sumatra. The tsunami also reached the western part of the Indian Ocean, including the coastal areas of eastern Africa. Along the coast of Kenya (Figs 1, 2) it resulted in a sudden increase in water level comparable to a high tide situation. This rather limited consequence was partly due to the great distance to the epicentre of the earthquake, and partly due to the low tide at the time of the impact. Hence the reefs that fringe two thirds of the coastline reduced the energy of the tsunami waves and protected the coastal areas. During the spring of 2005, staff members from the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) carried out field work related to the project KenSea – development of a sensitivity atlas for coastal areas of Kenya (Tychsen 2006; Tychsen et al. 2006). Local fishermen and authorities often asked what would have been the effect if the tsunami had hit the coastal area during a high tide, and to answer the question GEUS and the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI) initiated a tsunami damage projection project. The aim was to provide an important tool for contingency planning by national and local authorities in the implementation of a national early warning strategy. The tsunami damage projection project used the database of coastal resources – KenSeaBase – that was developed during the KenSea project. The topographical maps of Kenya at a scale of 1:50 000 have 20 m contour lines, which is insufficient for the tsunami run-up simulation modelling undertaken by the new tsunami project. Therefore new sets of aerial photographs were obtained, and new photogrammetric maps with contour lines with an equidistance of 1 m were drawn for a 6–8 km broad coastal zone. The tsunami modelling is based on the assumption that the height of a future tsunami wave would be comparable with the one that reached the coastal area of Kenya in December 2004. Based on the regional geology of the Indian Ocean, it appears that the epicentre for a possible future earthquake that could lead to a new tsunami would most likely be situated in the eastern part of the ocean. Furthermore, based on a seismological assessment it has been estimated that the largest tsunami that can be expected to reach eastern Africa would have a 50% larger amplitude than the 2004 tsunami. It was therefore decided to carry out the simulation modelling with a tsunami wave similar to that of the 2004 event, but with the wave reaching the coast at the highest astronomical tide (scenario 1) and a worst case with a 50% larger amplitude (scenario 2: Fig. 3). The 2004 tsunami documented that the coastal belt of mangrove swamps provided some protection to the coastline by reducing the energy of the tsunami. Hence we included in this study a scenario 3 (Fig. 4), in which the mangrove areas along the coastline were removed. Maps for the three scenarios have been produced and show the areas that would be flooded, the degree of flooding, and the distribution of buildings such as schools and hospitals in the flooded areas. In addition, the force and velocity of the wave were calculated (COWI 2006).

Kala-azar Epidemiology and Control, Southern Sudan

Southern Sudan is one of the areas in eastern Africa most affected by visceral leishmaniasis (kala-azar), but lack of security and funds has hampered control. Since 2005, the return of stability has opened up new opportunities to expand existing interventions and introduce new ones.