Western Area Research Articles

Coupling Coordination Relationships Between Ecosystems and Economic Development in Qinghai and Tibet

The coordinated development of ecological protection and socioeconomics in the Tibetan Plateau is of great significance. This study examines the coupling coordination of urban ecosystems and economic development across 15 municipal administrative units in Qinghai Province and the Tibet Autonomous Region, the core areas of the Tibetan Plateau. The findings reveal that a larger proportion of the Qinghai and Tibet ecosystems are classified above the medium vulnerability level, primarily due to inherent natural geographic conditions. Additionally, the area of the two provinces and regions below the medium development level is larger, which is mainly influenced by indicators of economic strength and industrial structure. The degree of coupling coordination between the ecosystem and economic system in Qinghai and Tibet is predominantly driven by economic factors. Given the existing natural environmental conditions, the eastern regions of Qinghai and Tibet still possess certain development potential, while the economic development in the western areas is somewhat constrained by the natural environment. Based on this, further policy recommendations have been proposed to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure, aligning ecological protection with economic development in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. These recommendations aim to facilitate the formulation of strategies and policies for sustainable urban construction and social development in such high-ecological-value regions as the Tibetan Plateau.

Photoautotrophic picoplankton of the Kara Sea in the middle of summer: Effect of first-year ice retreat on carbon and chlorophyll biomass and primary production

The Arctic warming leads to a decline in sea-ice extent and thickness, rapid warming and freshening of the sea surface which impact the distribution of phytoplankton size composition. Picophytoplankton is an ecologically important component of Arctic pelagic marine ecosystems, and its role may be altered by global warming. In this study, the abundance and biomass, the chlorophyll a (Chl-a) and primary production (PP) of picophytoplankton, and its spatial and temporal distribution were investigated in the Kara Sea during the ice-melt season in July 2019. Picophytoplankton played a major role in the surface PP in the southern and western areas of the Kara Sea. In the surface layer, the contribution of picophytoplankton to total Chl-a increased insignificantly, and the contribution of picophytoplankton to total PP decreased significantly with the time of sea ice retreat. In the euphotic zone, the Chl-a concentration of picophytoplankton and its contribution to total Chl-a decreased with the time of sea ice retreat. The average picophytoplankton biomass determined in the present study (2.72 ± 5.10 mg C m−3) corresponded to the biomass estimates in the Arctic. The picophytoplankton community was strongly dominated by eukaryotes, cyanobacteria were only detected at 3 out of 11 stations, with maximum abundances (0.07 × 109 cells m−3) observed at depths below 15 m. The obtained results contribute significantly to the study of the picophytoplankton dynamics during the ice-melting season in the hard-to-reach Kara Sea.

Value Assessment and Prediction of Regulating Ecosystem Services in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park, China

Ecosystem services serve as a bridge between the ecological environment and human society. The quantitative analysis and forecasting of ecosystem services can provide references for regional eco-environmental assessments and land-use planning for the future. In this study, taking Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park (HTRNP) as an example, the value of regulating ecosystem services (RESs) in 2020 was assessed via ArcGIS 10.1 and the InVEST 3.5 model, and the per-unit value of RESs was calculated for different LULC types. In addition, in accordance with the Overall Planning for HTRNP and the objective of optimizing RESs, the value of RESs in short-term (to 2030) and long-term (to 2050) scenarios was forecast via a linear programming model. The results are as follows: (1) The RES value of HTRNP in 2020 was CNY 2090.67 × 108, with climate regulation accounting for the largest proportion; the spatial distribution of RESs in the eastern and central areas was higher than that in the western area, but different indicators of RESs differed in their spatial patterns in varied geographic units. (2) The natural forest ecosystem in HTRNP accounts for 76.94% of the total area but 84.82% of the total value of RESs. The per-unit value is ranked from highest to lowest as follows: montane rainforests > wetlands > lowland rainforests > lowland secondary rainforests > tropical coniferous forests > deciduous monsoon rainforests > tropical cloud forests > shrub forests > timber forests > economic forests > rubber forests > grasslands > farmlands > settlements. (3) In the short-term scenario, the value of RESs is CNY 2216.64 × 108, an increase of CNY 118.97 × 108 compared to 2020, with an increase rate of 5.67%. In the long-term scenario, the value of RESs is CNY 2472.48 × 108, an increase of CNY 374.81 × 108 compared to 2020, with an increase rate of 17.87%. The results reveal the significance of ecosystem services in the national park and can inform more targeted and scientifically sound decision-making in the future.

Deep plutonic bodies over low-frequency earthquakes revealed from receiver-side Green's functions

Seismological heterogeneity in subduction zones provides insights into slow earthquakes and potential megathrust earthquakes. Studies at the Kii Peninsula in the Nankai subduction zone suggest that there are high-density and high-velocity plutonic bodies in the accretionary prism over the subducting slab, potentially influencing megathrust earthquakes. The lateral variation of heterogeneity and the spatial extent of plutonic bodies remain to be investigated well. Our passive-source imaging of receiver-side Green's functions, from widely distributed campaign seismic observations, reveals a sharp negative S-wave velocity contrast on the top surface of the subducting Philippine Sea plate common to all along-dip profiles and a positive phase tilted upward in the forearc crust. The low permeability of the forearc crust prevents the infiltration of slab-dehydrated fluid further into the upper crust. In the western area, we also found positive phases tilted upward in the forearc crust. The negative phase extends towards the deeper extent of slow-earthquake sources. Meanwhile, the positive phase likely represents the top surface of plutonic rocks of the Kumano and Ohmine plutons that span all the way down to the plate interface. Together with observations of gravity anomaly, intraslab seismicity, and seismic tomography, our interpretation supports the presence of plutonic bodies which extend deep beneath the forearc crust as well as laterally over the subducting PHS slab, rather than a serpentinized mantle wedge. The upper plate is generally low in permeability, but areas with localized high permeability may exist on the updip side of tremor sources. This condition, wherein fluid can infiltrate upwards locally, may maintain the relatively less active slow earthquakes in the western area. The lateral variation of the upper-plate lithology likely influences fluid processes and slow earthquake activities.

Towards Sustainable Rural Development: Assessment Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Rural Ecosystem Health through Integrating Ecosystem Integrity and SDGs

Rural ecosystem health (REH) serves as an effective metric for assessing the damage degree and stability state within rural systems and their components. It reflects the interaction and the balance among rural subsystems, emphasizing the harmonious development of resources, agriculture, environment, economy, and society that are fundamental to sustainable rural development. Most regional-scale ecosystem health assessments primarily focus on either the natural state of the ecosystem or external disturbances affecting it, often neglecting human ecological systems characterized by economic and social dimensions. Taking Chongqing as an example, we established an improved REH assessment framework by integrating ecological integrity from the perspective of a social-economy-natural compound ecosystem. Furthermore, we innovatively incorporated the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into the formulation of the REH indicator system to quantitatively elucidate the spatiotemporal characteristics. The results indicated that: (1) The REH in Chongqing exhibited an evolutionary pattern characterized by a subsequent rise, maintaining values between 0.363–0.872 from 2000 to 2018. This trend reflected a distinct two-stage development characteristic, with the rural socio-economic subsystem contributing the most at 33.36%, followed closely by the rural environmental subsystem at 27.84%; (2) In 2018, the REH across the 36 districts and counties in Chongqing displayed spatial differentiation patterns described as “collapse in the west, high levels in the northeast, and localized surges”. The areas ranked from smallest to largest REH were metropolitan, western, southeastern, and northeastern areas; (3) Four levels (e.g., disease, single health, compound health, and comprehensive health) and twelve sub-levels of REH were defined using a dominant factors method. Finally, we analyzed the driving factors from four aspects of urbanization development: policy regulation, urban-rural factors flow, and regional differences. We also proposed differentiated planning and policies for sustainable rural development in Chongqing.

Fruit and vegetables loss and waste in preschools belonging to the National Board of Kindergartens of Chile.

Food waste is a global issue affecting society from environmental, nutritional, and social perspectives. In collaboration with the National Board of Preschools, fruit and vegetable waste generated during the preparation of lunch was quantified in four preschools in the Metropolitan area of Santiago in Chile. This study was conducted in four preschools, two in the Western area of Santiago and two in the Eastern area, of which two hold environmental quality certifications. Over a five-day period, the weight of raw materials and waste from vegetables (peels) and fruit (pomace) were measured. Percentages of vegetable and fruit post-cleaning losses and waste were evaluated. Vegetable loss exceeded 20% in 31% of the preschools, primarily from carrots and potatoes. Fruit losses were higher, with pears accounting for the most significant waste, recorded in 75% of the study centers. No differences in vegetable loss was found between centers, while variations were observed for fruit. Preschools with environmental quality certifications wasted less onions (p = 0.016) but more pears (p = 0.036). There is higher fruit loss than vegetable loss, with onions and tomatoes being the least wasted. Possessing an environmental quality certification does not guarantee a significant reduction in overall losses. Handling and storage conditions may play a key role in minimizing losses. Further studies are needed to provide evidence that can guide improvements in Chile's National Board of Preschools services, aiming for a more sustainable lunch preparation processes.

Impact of typical environments in China's western mountainous areas on the durability of railway concrete: a review

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the impact mechanism of typical environments in China's western mountainous areas on the durability of railway concrete and propose measures to improve durability.Design/methodology/approachWith the continuous promotion of infrastructure construction, the focus of China's railway construction has gradually shifted to the western region. The four typical environments of large temperature differences, strong winds and dryness, high cold and low air pressure unique to the western mountainous areas of China have adverse effects on the durability of typical railway structure concrete (bridges, ballastless tracks and tunnels). This study identified the characteristics of four typical environments in the western mountainous areas of China through on-site research. The impact mechanism of the four typical environments on the durability of concrete in different structural parts of railways has been explored through theoretical analysis and experimental research; Finally, a strategy for improving the durability of railway concrete suitable for the western mountainous areas of China was proposed.FindingsThe daily temperature difference in the western mountainous areas of China is more than twice that of the plain region, which will lead to significant temperature deformation and stress in the multi-layered structure of railway ballastless tracks. It will result in cracking. The wind speed in the western plateau region is about 2.5 to 3 times that of the plain region, and the average annual rainfall is only 1/5 of that in the plain region. The drying effect on the surface of casting concrete will significantly accelerate its cracking process, leading to serious durability problems. The environmental temperature in the western mountainous areas of China is generally low, and there are more freeze-thaw cycles, which will increase the risk of freeze-thaw damage to railway concrete. The environmental air pressure in the western plateau region is only 60% of that in the plain region. The moisture inside the concrete is more likely to diffuse into the surrounding environment under the pressure difference, resulting in greater water loss and shrinkage deformation of the concrete in the plateau region. The above four issues will collectively lead to the rapid deterioration of concrete durability in the western plateau region. The corresponding durability improvement suggestions from theoretical research, new technology development and standard system was proposed in this paper.Originality/valueThe research can provide the mechanism of durability degradation of railway concrete in the western mountainous areas of China and corresponding improvement strategies.

Distribution of microplastics on sandy beaches in western and southern Japan and their fate in the oceans

The Japanese archipelago is surrounded by the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Pacific Ocean, and the East China Sea. The oceans are known to be contaminated by waste artifacts (marine litter). To investigate how these artifacts contaminate sandy beaches in Japan and their fate in the oceans, we sampled sand from 19 sandy beaches ranging from the western area of the main island of Japan (Honshu), which faces the Sea of Japan, to the westernmost island in the Japanese archipelago (Yonaguni Island), which faces the East China Sea. Almost all beaches were contaminated by marine litter. The maximum density by number of pieces was 604,600 per m3 in a 2-cm depth of sand on Yonaguni Island. Polystyrene foam was the most common artifact, and plastic fragments were second. The densities of artifacts by number and weight, and the type of artifacts, varied by location. A statistically significant positive relationship between the weights of artifacts and natural objects was observed, suggesting that they experience similar fates in the oceans. The major axis of the polystyrene foam in the Yonaguni area differed significantly from those in the Shimane, Tsushima, and Okinawa areas. The major axis in the Tsushima area significantly differed from those in all other studied areas. This study found the geological difference in the distribution and the major axis of polystyrene foams. These differences may be relevant to environmental physical factors (wind, rain, and waves), chemical alterations by ultraviolet rays, exposed time, the gyre, and local currents.

Storminess reconstruction in the northeastern Baltic Sea region over the past 7600 years based on aeolian sand influx into coastal bogs

This study aims to reconstruct the changes in storminess during the past 7600 years in the northeastern Baltic Sea region. For storminess reconstructions, aeolian sand influx (ASI) in coastal peat bog deposits was applied as an indicator of the past storminess. We analyzed cores from four peat bogs in the western and northern coastal areas of Estonia: the cores from Hiiumaa N, Hiiumaa SW, Saaremaa and Juminda study sites covered the past 3700, 3750, 2400, and 8400 years, respectively. The sediment chronologies were established using 36 14C dates. Image-analysis method ( ImageJ) was used to count and measure the grain size of all sand particles at every centimeter to gain high-resolution ASI records. Although minor site-to-site variations exist, all four ASI records were in general consistent, suggesting that stormier periods occurred around 7300, 6600, 5900, 4600, 3600, 2900, 2400, 2100, and 1600 cal yr BP and over the last 1200 years. The results and comparisons with other storminess and climate studies indicate a shift in climatic conditions around 2500 cal yr BP when stormy periods became more frequent. The ASI values were also high during the last millennium, suggesting either higher storminess or more suitable transport mechanisms for sand into the coastal bogs: the niveo-aeolian transport mode could have been favored in winters, especially during the Little Ice Age, and human impact on landscapes has probably increased over the past centuries.

Investigating the effects of industrial transformation and agglomeration on industrial eco-efficiency for green development: Evidence from enterprises in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Improving industrial eco-efficiency (IEE) is significant for green development, particularly in the areas characterized by intense industrial agglomerations, such as the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). This study analyzes IEE in the middle and lower reaches of the YREB (YREBML) from 2011 to 2020 using the Super SBM-ML model. Based on industrial and commercial enterprise database, this study clarifies the effects of industrial transformation and agglomeration on IEE based on spatial Durbin model. From 2011 to 2020, the IEE in the YREBML exhibited an increased trend, with an average annual increasing rate of 1.48%. The high IEE areas predominantly clustered in eastern coastal cities, while lower IEE regions were mostly located in the central and western areas. Malmquist-Luenberger index decomposition analysis suggests that advanced production technology, improved efficient resource allocation, and optimized industrial structure enhance IEE. The spatial econometric analysis revealed industrial structure rationalization (ISR) and textile industry factory scatter index (FSI) had significant positive effect on IEE, while FSI of chemical raw materials and product manufacturing industry had significant negative effect on IEE. These findings highlight the importance of promoting textile industrial clusters and controlling the quantity and distribution density of chemical industries to improve overall IEE in the YREBML.

Landslide risk assessment in mining areas using hybrid machine learning methods under fuzzy environment

Landslide risk assessment in coal mining economic cities faces challenges due to inadequate knowledge of indicator systems and modeling techniques, despite its crucial significance in geological disaster management. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel framework encompassing data preparation, susceptibility analysis, consequence analysis, and final risk assessment. The primary objective is to reduce the complexity and inherent uncertainties associated with landslide risk assessment in these specific urban environments. First, two comprehensive databases for the indication system were established. One database focuses on landslide susceptibility, considering the region’s mining disturbances and disaster-prone environments. The other evaluates the effect of consequences while accounting for the pertinent risk variables. Second, a hybrid machine learning model called Geo-FR-SVM was developed by combining the GeoDetector, Frequency Ratio method, and Support Vector Machine model to improve landslide susceptibility mapping. Integrating the susceptibility map with the consequence map created using fuzzy set theory and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methodologies resulted in the final landslide risk map. Our analysis revealed that elevation, distance to rivers and roads, groundwater level, and coal mining subsidence were the key factors influencing landslide occurrence in the Xishan mine area. The majority of the study area exhibits low landslide risk. However, higher consequence zones were primarily concentrated in highly populated residential regions and coal mine industrial zones in the east-central and western urban areas. Additionally, they are mainly distributed along the roads in the center region. With comparatively large percentages of landslide high-risk and extremely high-risk regions (4.596%, 3.855%, 3.625%, and 3.188%, respectively) at Tunlan Mine, Xiqu Mine, Zhenchengdi Mine, and Baijiazhuang Mine, these findings highlight the need for these mines to prioritize potential landslide identification and risk mitigation strategies. This framework offers broad applicability to other coal mining economic cities, serving as a valuable foundation for landslide risk management decision-making.

Multivariate Analysis and Prediction Model Construction for Dermatoscope Use by Chinese Dermatologists via an Online Survey.

The use of dermatoscopes is constantly increasing globally, but to date, there are no studies on the use of dermatoscopes by Chinese dermatologists. To determine factors influencing the use of dermatoscopes in China. A web-based questionnaire was designed by the Department of Dermatology at Huashan Hospital affiliated with Fudan University and was published online via the Shanghai Wheat Color Intelligent Technology Company, China. In 2019 and 2022, 1581 and 1507 dermatologists, respectively, were recruited and completed the questionnaire online. In China, the application rate of dermatoscopy is higher in eastern provinces than in western and remote areas. The proportion of doctors from public tertiary hospitals is the highest, with females being the majority. The age range of 30-40 years has the highest proportion, the proportion of doctors with professional titles of attending physician or above is the highest, and the proportion of doctors with a bachelor's degree or above is the highest. By improving the education and professional standards of doctors, providing more training opportunities, simplifying access, and promoting dermatoscopy in grassroots hospitals, we can increase the confidence of dermatologists in the use of dermatoscopy.

Epidemiology of human and animal leptospirosis in Kenya: A systematic review and meta-analysis of disease occurrence, serogroup diversity and risk factors.

Leptospirosis is a priority zoonotic disease in Kenya, but an in-depth review of its presence in humans, animals and the environment is lacking. Therefore, we conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to understand the epidemiological situation to date. We searched for literature in African journals online, AGRIS, Embase, the Leptospira WOAH reference laboratory library, ProMED-mail, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and the institutional repositories of 33 academic institutions and included 66 publications on leptospirosis in Kenya which spanned from 1951 to 2022. The review was registered on the International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols (INPLASY). Most investigations were done in rural and urban areas in western, southern, central, and coastal areas in Kenya and the largely pastoral eastern and northern areas were under-represented. A wide host range of domestic animals and wildlife was revealed, and occupational exposure was an important risk factor for humans. The microscopic agglutination test (MAT) was the most frequent test, particularly common in studies conducted during the 1980s and 1990s. However, varying MAT panels and cut-off titres were observed. The overall seroprevalence in cattle was 28.2% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 12.0-53.0; heterogeneity: I2 = 96.7%, τ2 = 1.4), and 11.0% in goats (95% CI: 5.4-21.2; heterogeneity: I2 = 78.8%, τ2 = 0.4). Molecular tests were seldom used to determine species and illustrate strain diversity. There was a lack of awareness of leptospirosis among farmers and health practitioners. The widespread presence of leptospires and inadequate diagnostic capacity demonstrate that leptospirosis is a common but underreported disease in Kenya. Raising awareness and boosting the country's diagnostic capacity is crucial to timely detection and disease control.

Changing patterns and determinants of China's interprovincial migration: Evidence from the 2020 census

AbstractInterprovincial migration in China has changed in recent years due to the socioeconomic transformation. Yet, less attention has been paid to the current spatial patterns of interprovincial migration, especially the spatial heterogeneity of the determinants. Based on the newly released 2020 census data, this study explored the spatial patterns and determinants of interprovincial migration in China using a spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression. The results revealed multiple trends in interprovincial migration, including flow from developing provinces in the central region to eastern and western regions and returning flow from developed to developing provinces in the central and western regions. The Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations remained centres of population inflow. Moreover, key western development areas, such as the Chengdu‐Chongqing area and Xinjiang, emerged as centres of population inflow. Economic and social development, social safety, and living environment significantly and positively affected interprovincial migration. Furthermore, significant spatial heterogeneity in factors influencing migration was detected. The findings provide a systematic understanding of China's interprovincial migration in 2020 and the spatial heterogeneity of determinants can guide the population development strategy design of governments.

Differences in Megabenthos Communities in the Eastern and Western Parts of the Kara Sea Based on Video Observations

The first quantitative video survey of the benthic megafauna was carried out on a transect in the eastern part of the Kara Sea from the slope of the Voronin Trough to the upper shelf in the depth range from 1680 to 70 metres. The data were obtained using the TU-V “Videomodule” during the 89th cruise of the R/V “Akademik Mstislav Keldysh” in autumn 2022. It was shown that the megabenthos in this area differs significantly from that of the western part of the sea and Blagopoluchiya Bay (Novaya Zemlya). In the eastern part of the Kara Sea, echinoderms dominated, among which ophiuroids were in the first place, whereas in the western part of the sea and in the Blagopoluchiya Bay, the key component of the megafauna was the snow crab Chionoecetes opilio. Single adults of Ch. opilio were recorded for the first time at almost all stations in the eastern part of the sea, but, in contrast to the western area, the snow crab has not yet become dominant here and has not influenced the benthic communities.

Temporal and spatial variation patterns of chlorophyll a in marine ranching under global interannual events

Marine ecosystems are facing numerous environmental challenges due to global climate change. In response to these challenges, the establishment and growth of marine ranching has emerged as a pivotal solution. Chlorophyll a concentration (Chla) is recognized as a valuable indicator for the ecological assessment of marine ranching. This study focused on the spatiotemporal distribution of Chla and its response to environmental factors according to the dataset in the marine ranching area of Haizhou Bay (Lianyungang, Jiangsu, China) from 2003 to 2022. The results showed that Chla had a significant cycle of summer > spring > autumn and was distributed evenly in the central area of the marine ranching. During interannual changes, Chla patches were centered in the central region during 2014, 2015, and 2016. The Chla patches predominantly focused on the eastern area in 2018–2019, shifting to the western area in 2020–2021. The generalized additive model (GAM) indicated that salinity, depth, temperature, biological oxygen demand (BOD5) and SiO3−–Si were the main environmental factors affecting Chla during spring, summer and autumn. However, during El Niño events, salinity, depth, temperature, BOD5 and transparency became the main environmental factors. We concluded that salinity, depth and temperature consistently played a crucial role in determining Chla under various climate conditions, and SiO3−–Si and transparency will no longer be an environmental factor limiting Chla. In addition, The effect of interannual variability on upwelling and vertical mixing of water layers may potentially alter the spatial distribution pattern of Chla. These findings can offer ideas into predicting the variation of Chla in marine ranching under global interannual events in the future. Furthermore, this can contribute to the comprehensive assessment of ecological benefits and the in-depth construction of marine ranching. Ultimately, it can provide essential data and scientific references for offshore ecological environment assessment and ecosystem restoration.

Geospatial and geo-electrical assessment of groundwater vulnerability and potential in parts of Cross River, Southern Nigeria

Assessing groundwater vulnerability and potential is essential for sustainable management. This study evaluates these factors in southern Cross River, Nigeria, using geospatial and geo-electrical methods, including Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and Remote Sensing (RS). Twenty VES surveys were performed, revealing aquifer resistivity from 5.12 to 506.00 Ω/m, thickness from 6.60 to 34.30 m, and depth from 18.60 to 68.00 m. Rainfall was the most significant factor (38 %) affecting groundwater potential, followed by geology (24 %), slope (13 %), drainage density (8 %), land use/cover (6 %), lineament density (5 %), and soil type (3 %). With a Consistency Ratio (CR) of 0.043884, data consistency was high. Groundwater potential zoning (GWPZ) maps categorized the area into low, moderate, good, and excellent zones, highlighting high potential in western areas with high lineament density and moderate slopes. This research demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating geospatial and geo-electrical techniques for groundwater assessment.

Model-Based Prediction for Small Domains Using Covariates: A Comparison of Four Methods

Abstract We consider methods for model-based small area estimation when the number of areas with sampled data is a small fraction of the total areas for which estimates are required. Abundant auxiliary information is available from the survey for all the sampled areas. Further, through an external source, there is information for all areas. The goal is to use auxiliary variables to predict the outcome of interest for all areas. We compare areal-level random forests and LASSO approaches to a frequentist forward variable selection approach and a Bayesian shrinkage method using a horseshoe prior. Further, to measure the uncertainty of estimates obtained from random forests and the LASSO, we propose a modification of the split conformal procedure that relaxes the assumption of exchangeable data. We show that the proposed method yields intervals with the correct coverage rate and this is confirmed through a simulation study. This work is motivated by Ghanaian data available from the sixth Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS) and the 2010 Population and Housing Census, in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) region, which comprises eight districts that are further divided into enumeration areas (EAs). We estimate the areal mean household log consumption using both datasets. The outcome variable is measured only in the GLSS for 3 percent of all the EAs (136 out of 5019) and 174 potential covariates are available in both datasets. In the application, among the four modeling methods considered, the Bayesian shrinkage performed the best in terms of bias, mean squared error (MSE), and prediction interval coverages and scores, as assessed through a cross-validation study. We find substantial between-area variation with the estimated log consumption showing a 1.3-fold variation across the GAMA region. The western areas are the poorest while the Accra Metropolitan Area district has the richest areas.

Temporal trends of seasonal pollen indexes in a region of Northern Italy (2001–2022)

Increasing trends in allergic respiratory diseases may be linked to climate changes affecting pollen levels. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trends in seasonal indexes of 9 allergenic pollen types in the Veneto Region, Northern Italy. Available daily data from 20 monitoring stations covered 2001–2022 for Corylaceae, Cupressaceae, Poaceae, Oleaceae, and Urticaceae (pollen families), and 2006–2022 for Alnus, Betula, Ambrosia, and Artemisia (pollen genera). The 95-percentage method was used to identify the start/end dates of pollen seasons annually, and the seasonal cumulative pollen concentration (Seasonal Pollen Integral, SPIn) was calculated. The non-parametric Theil-Sen median slope method was used to examine trends in pollen seasons’ start day, duration, and SPIn in the whole region and for climatic areas (alpine, subcontinental eastern, subcontinental western). The results showed a clear upward trend in SPIn for several pollens, with median slopes ranging from 326 (Alnus) to 1089 p/m3 per 10yrs (Corylaceae); exceptions were Artemisia, whose SPIn decreased over time (−26 p/m3 per 10yrs), and Ambrosia, Betula, and Urticaceae, which did not show a clear trend. For families, pollen seasons showed a trend for anticipation (from −4.7, Urticaceae, to −13.5 days/10yrs, Oleaceae) and extended duration (from 8.3, Cupressaceae, to 13.3 days/10yrs, Oleaceae). An evident heterogeneity across the climatic areas was seen for the SPIn, with the subcontinental western area exhibiting the highest loads and most prominent increases over time. In conclusion, increased levels and prolonged seasons for several pollen taxa observed in the Veneto Region, particularly in subcontinental areas, suggest increasing risks for individuals with pollen allergies. Addressing this issue requires measures of mitigation and adaptation to climate-driven changes in pollen exposure.

Geographic matching analysis between green finance development and carbon emissions in China’s new era of environmental transition

Green finance plays a pivotal role in driving sustainable development. While its effectiveness in promoting green development is well-established, the impact of regional heterogeneity on its outcomes warrants further investigation. By introducing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) model, we analyze the causal relationship between provincial carbon emissions and green finance development in China, accounting for spatial spillovers across provinces. A geographic mismatch between regions of green finance development and carbon emission concentration is revealed. Central and Western areas exhibit higher carbon emissions, indicating a greater need for targeted green finance initiatives to promote sustainable development. However, green finance growth in these areas remains sluggish. Moreover, carbon emissions hinder local green finance development and negatively impact neighboring regions. We present new insights into the influence of carbon emissions on green finance, highlighting the importance of inter-regional collaboration and the potential applicability to other countries facing similar challenges.