Areas Of Potential Habitat Research Articles

Nature reserves and reforestation expend the potential habitats for endangered plants: A model study in Cangshan, China

The loss of biodiversity is one of the greatest challenges in the world. Nature Reserves are widely recognized as an effective strategy to protect against biodiversity crises. Over the past 40 years, the vegetation coverage of the Cangshan Reserve and its surrounding areas has increased significantly largely due to the reforestation project. In this study, we specifically evaluated the capacity of nature reserves and reforestation efforts to increase the area of potential habitats for endangered plants, using historical and current species distribution models (SDM). Our findings revealed that the highly suitable area for endangered species constituted 31.5 % of Cangshan Reserve and 3.3 % of the total study area in 1980 model. However, in the 2020 model, the highly suitable area increased to 37.9 % of Cangshan Reserve and 3.9 % of the total area. In total, the highly suitable area in 2020 exceeded that of 1980 by 37.12 km2. The significant increase of the highly suitable area can be attributed to the plantations within the Cangshan Reserve. Despite a noted increase in vegetation cover outside the reserve, the present study did not find a significant expansion in suitable habitats outside Cangshan Reserve. In conclusion, our study suggests that reforestation policy alone may not suffice to expand the potential habitats for endangered plants, a combined approach involving the establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of reforestation programs may prove to be a more effective strategy in the increase of potential habitats for these rare and endangered plants.

The Minimal Impact of Anthropogenic Disturbances on the Spatial Activities of Leopard Cats in Xinlong, China.

The habitat plays a crucial role in ensuring the survival of wildlife. However, the increasing disturbances caused by human activities present a substantial threat to habitats, especially for species such as the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis), which is a significant small predator. Currently, research on leopard cats predominantly focuses on low-altitude regions within its distribution range, leaving plateau areas understudied. To enhance our understanding of the impact of human disturbances on leopard cat habitats, we undertook a study employing infrared camera trappings to monitor leopard cats' activity in Xinlong of southwestern China between 2015 and 2023. We analyzed the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of the leopard cats by utilizing ensemble species distribution models (ESDMs). Moreover, we employed two-species occupancy models to investigate the spatial interaction between leopard cats and human disturbances. The results indicated that (1) the potential suitable habitat area for leopard cats encompassed approximately 1324.93 km2 (14.3%), primarily located along the banks of Yalong river. (2) The distribution of suitable habitat was predominantly influenced by competitors, specifically the yellow-throated marten (YTM), accounting for 52.4% of the influence, as well as environmental factors such as distance to water (DTW) at 12.0% and terrain roughness index (TRI) at 10.0%. Human interference, including cattle presence (4.6%), distance to road (DTD, 4.9%), and distance to settlement (DTS, 3.5%), had a limited impact on the habitat distribution. (3) Within a 5 km radius, habitat suitability increased with proximity to human settlements. (4) Leopard cats exhibited spatial independence from humans and domestic cattle (species interaction factor (SIF) = 1.00) while avoiding domestic horses (SIF = 0.76 ± 0.03). The relatively minor impact of human disturbances in Xinlong could be attributed to traditional cultural practices safeguarding wildlife and the leopard cat's environmental adaptability. We recommend establishing a novel conservation paradigm based on the living dynamics of wildlife communities in Xinlong, thereby offering a more targeted approach to biodiversity preservation in the future.

Potential distribution of the critically endangered dragonfly Libellula angelina (Odonata: Libellulidae) under shared socio‐economic pathways

AbstractLibellula angelina is an endangered dragonfly species that is native to East Asia. Recently, their population has become severely reduced through habitat loss. To protect L. angelina populations, we need to understand which factors determine their distribution and how their potential habitats will change in the future. In this study, the habitat preference of L. angelina was identified through field surveys, and the potential distribution of L. angelina and the impact of integrated climate–land cover changes were simulated using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, the wetland loss scenario was applied to areas where the current trend in wetland loss will continue in the future. The field survey identified that L. angelina prefers small inland wetlands: permanent freshwater, ponds; permanent rivers, ponds; irrigated land; and estuarine waters. From the MaxEnt results, altitude was the variable with the greatest contribution and distance from wetlands was the most unique variable. MaxEnt described the geographic pattern of occurrences under the current climate well, with few areas requiring any further survey. In the future projection, the potential habitat area was increased by up to 48.8% and 30.6% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. However, potential habitat loss was expected if wetlands continue to decline as they have done in the last 20 years. The wetland loss scenario resulted in potential habitat losses of 1.9%–2.3% and 4.5%–6.1% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Therefore, to protect L. angelina populations we must minimize the loss of current populations, secure wetlands and strengthen the connectivity between wetlands.

Terrestrial and Airborne Lidar to Quantify Shrub Cover for Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) Habitat Using Machine Learning

The Canada lynx is listed as a threatened species, and as such, the identification and conservation of lynx habitats is of significant concern. Lynxes require areas with high amounts of horizontal cover made up of ground vegetation. Lidar offers a robust method of quantifying vegetation structure, and airborne lidar has been acquired across large areas of potential lynx habitat. Unfortunately, airborne lidar is often not able to directly measure understory horizontal cover due to occlusion from the upper branches. Terrestrial lidar does directly measure understory horizontal cover and can be used as training data for larger area models using airborne lidar. In this study, we acquired 168 individual terrestrial lidar scans (TLS) across 42 sites in north-central Washington state. We generated metrics from the single-scan TLS plots using depth maps, a digital cover board, and voxels. Using our TLS metrics as the training data for the airborne lidar acquired for the entire Loomis State Forest, we were able to produce a model using xgboost with 85% accuracy. We believe our study shows that single-scan TLS plots can be used effectively to quantify fine-scale forest structure elements relevant to species habitat, to then inform larger area models using airborne lidar.

Time to Step Up Conservation: Climate Change Will Further Reduce the Suitable Habitats for the Vulnerable Species Marbled Polecat (Vormela peregusna).

Habitat loss and human threats are putting the marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna) on the brink of extinction. Numerous recent studies have found that climate change will further deteriorate the living environment of endangered species, leading to their eventual extinction. In this study, we used the results of infrared camera surveys in China and worldwide distribution data to construct an ensemble model consisting of 10 commonly used ecological niche models to specify potential suitable habitat areas for V. peregusna under current conditions with similar environments to the sighting record sites. Changes in the suitable habitat for V. peregusna under future climate change scenarios were simulated using mid-century (2050s) and the end of the century (2090s) climate scenarios provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluated the accuracy of the model to obtain the environmental probability values (cutoff) of the V. peregusna distribution, the current distribution of suitable habitats, and future changes in moderately and highly suitable habitat areas. The results showed that the general linear model (GLM) was the best single model for predicting suitable habitats for V. peregusna, and the kappa coefficient, area under the curve (AUC), and true skill statistic (TSS) of the ensemble model all exceeded 0.9, reflecting greater accuracy and stability than single models. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for V. peregusna reached 3935.92 × 104 km2, suggesting a wide distribution range. In the future, climate change is predicted to severely affect the distribution of V. peregusna and substantially reduce the area of suitable habitats for the species, with 11.91 to 33.55% of moderately and highly suitable habitat areas no longer suitable for the survival of V. peregusna. This shift poses an extremely serious challenge to the conservation of this species. We suggest that attention be given to this problem in Europe, especially the countries surrounding the Black Sea, Asia, China, and Mongolia, and that measures be taken, such as regular monitoring and designating protected areas for the conservation of vulnerable animals.

Integrating suitable habitat dynamics under typical hydrological regimes as guides for the conservation and restoration of different waterbird groups

The operation of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) has influenced the wetland ecosystems downstream, thereby affecting the distribution of habitats suitable for waterbirds. However, dynamic studies on habitat distribution under different water regimes are lacking. Here, using data from three successive wintering periods representing three typical water regimes, we modelled and mapped the habitat suitability of three waterbird groups in Dongting Lake, which is the first river-connected lake downstream of the TGP, and a crucial wintering ground for waterbirds along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. The results showed that the spatial pattern of habitat suitability varied among the wintering periods and waterbird groups. The analysis estimated the largest suitable habitat area for the herbivorous/tuber-eating group (HTG) and the insectivorous waterbird group (ING) under a normal water recession pattern, whereas early water recession had a more adverse effect. The suitable habitat area for the piscivorous/omnivorous group (POG) was higher under late water recession than under normal conditions. The ING was the most affected by hydrological changes among the three waterbird groups. Further, we identified the key conservation and potential restoration habitats. The HTG exhibited the largest key conservation habitat area compared to the other two groups, while the ING showed a potential restoration habitat area larger than its key conservation habitat area, indicating its sensitivity to environmental changes. The optimal inundation durations from September 1 to January 20 for HTG, ING and POG were 52 ± 7 d, 68 ± 18 d, and 132 ± 22 d, respectively. Therefore, the water recession starting in mid-October may be favourable for waterbirds in Dongting Lake. Altogether, our results can be used as guidance for prioritising certain management actions for waterbird conservation. Moreover, our study highlighted the importance of considering habitat spatiotemporal variation in highly dynamic wetlands when implementing management practices.

Predicting the Effects of Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Eolagurus luteus in Xinjiang

Eolagurus luteus (yellow steppe lemming Eolagurus luteus Eversmann, 1840) is a keystone species in the desert steppe of northern Xinjiang, one of the regions most affected by global climate change. Their behavior of eating grassland vegetation and digging holes has resulted in the reduction of grassland vegetation and soil erosion in northern Xinjiang, which has seriously affected the ecological balance of the grassland in northern Xinjiang, and pathogens carried by E. luteus pose a great threat to human health. Climate change exacerbates the uncertainty of the outbreak of E. luteus. Predicting the suitable habitat area of this species under climate change scenarios will help farmers and herders deal with the potential threat of an E. luteus outbreak. In this study, 117 actual occurrence points of E. luteus were used, and 24 climate models, 6 soil factors and 3 topographic factors from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were taken into account. Combining the MaxEnt model and the overlay analysis function of ArcGIS software, the potential geographic distribution of E. luteus in 2030 and 2050 for the green development path (SSP126), the intermediate development path (SSP245), the regional competition path (SSP370), and the high development path (SSP585) was predicted. The change trend of the suitable area and distribution pattern of E. luteus in Xinjiang under future climate conditions was analyzed, and the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. luteus are discussed. The results show that the average area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of the MaxEnt model are 0.993 and 0.8816, respectively, indicating that the model has a good prediction effect. The analysis of environmental factors showed that the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographical distribution of E. luteus are average annual temperature, isotherm, average temperature in the wettest quarter, average temperature in the driest quarter, and precipitation variation coefficient. With the increase of radiation intensity and time, the suitable areas of E. luteus will continue to decrease. Especially in the 2050s under the SSP585 scenario, the middle and high suitable areas will decrease by 2.58 × 104 km2 and 1.52 × 104 km2, respectively. Although the potential habitat area of E. luteus is shrinking, the future threat of E. luteus to grassland ecological security and human health should not be underestimated due to ecological adaptation of the community and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather. Therefore, studying changes in the potential geographic distribution of E. luteus under climate change scenarios and developing appropriate monitoring programs are of great importance for grassland ecological security and human health. This study fills in the gaps in the study of the potential geographical distribution of E. luteus and provides methodological and literature support for the study of the potential geographical distribution of other rodents.

Influences of increasing water release of the Three Gorges Reservoir during dry season on water regimes of downstream lake

AbstractThe severe and frequent drought in Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has seriously affected the local water resources security and wetland ecological security. Especially, the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in the Yangtze River further aggravated the drought in lake. To explore the approaches to alleviate drought in Poyang Lake, this study simulated and quantified the influences of increasing water release of the TGR during the dry periods on water regimes of Poyang Lake, including the lake water level, duration of low water, flow velocity, flow field of lake, as well as potential suitable habitat area of migratory birds, based on a hydrodynamic model. Major results showed that the increase of water release of the TGR raised the lake water level, especially in the northern lake area, with the average lake level increase of 0.2–1.08 m and the lowest lake level increase of 0.16–0.68 m. Meanwhile, the duration of low water was significantly shortened, from 127 days to 87–116 days (threshold lake level of 12.0 m) at Xingzi station. In addition, the hydrodynamic simulations revealed that the increasing water release of the TGR reduced the lake flow velocity and discharge of Poyang Lake, which decreased the outflow of lake by 1.66–17.87 × 108 m3, accounting for about 0.47%–5.11% of the total outflow in the dry season. Finally, the potential suitable habitat area with 0.2–0.6 m water depth increased by 1.7–27.9 km2 in December–February, and showed a significant expansion trend in the central area of Poyang Lake. Outcomes of the study are useful for understanding the influences of water release of the TGR on water regimes of downstream lakes, and can provide valuable references for mitigating lake droughts in complex river–lake system.

기후변화에 따른 멸종위기 야생생물 2급 백부자의 잠재서식처 변화와 파편화 예측

Climate change influences various aspects of life on earth including distribution shifts, phenology, and interaction with other organisms. Endangered species respond more sensitively to changes within their limited distribution range. In this study, we analyzed and modeled the current distribution habitat of Aconitum coreanum, which is classified as an endangered species level 2, and further projected potential distribution changes and habitat fragmentation under climate change scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathway, SSP). For species distribution modeling (SDM), current habitat coordinates were collected from the national ecosystem survey and the national survey on the distribution of endangered species, and environmental data were obtained from Worldclim. An ensemble model was used as a SDM for potential habitat analysis, and landscape metrics were used for fragmentation analysis. The potential habitat area was about 15,216 km2 and the distribution included the Yeongseo region of Gangwon-do and some areas of Chungcheongbuk-do in the current climate. Modeling revealed potential habitat decreases of at least 80% and complete disappearance in SSP3-7.0. The number of patches, mean patch area, total core area, and patch cohesion index showed a decreasing trend compared to the current climate. Our results provide fundamental information for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Aconitum coreanum. Adding ecological processes such as dispersal and population dynamics to such an analysis will make it possible to accurately predict the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of endangered species.

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas of Quasipaa spinosa in China Based on MaxEnt Optimization Model

Quasipaa spinosa is a large cold-water frog unique to China, with great ecological and economic value. In recent years, due to the impact of human activities on the climate, its habitat has been destroyed, resulting in a sharp decline in natural population resources. Based on the existing distribution records of Q. spinosa, this study uses the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGis 10.2 software to screen out 10 factors such as climate and altitude to predict its future potential distribution area because of climate change. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQHP and RM = 3, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC values are greater than 0.95. The precipitation of the driest month (bio14), temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation (ele), isothermality (bio3), and the minimum temperature of coldest month (bio6) were the main environmental factors affecting the potential range of the Q. spinosa. At present, high-suitability areas are mainly in the Hunan, Fujian, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Anhui, and Sichuan provinces of China. In the future, the potential distribution area of Q. spinosa may gradually extend to the northwest and north. The low-concentration emissions scenario in the future can increase the area of suitable habitat for Q. spinosa and slow down the reduction in the amount of high-suitability areas to a certain extent. In conclusion, the habitat of Q. spinosa is mainly distributed in southern China. Because of global climate change, the high-altitude mountainous areas in southern China with abundant water resources may be the main potential habitat area of Q. spinosa. Predicting the changes in the distribution patterns of Q. spinosa can better help us understand the biogeography of Q. spinosa and develop conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.

Orchids with scarce occurrence records: The case of the endangered Botany Bay Bearded Greenhood

SummaryPoorly studied species are potentially under‐prioritised by conservation programmes due to knowledge gaps presenting barriers to informing effective management strategies. The Botany Bay Bearded Greenhood, Pterostylis sp. Botany Bay, is an example of a poorly studied plant that is listed as endangered under both Commonwealth and New South Wales legislation. This study reports on archival surveys from 1998 to 2005 conducted at up to eight sites known to contain the Botany Bay Bearded Greenhood and follow‐up surveys in 2022. The archival surveys found that the total population count ranged from 83 to 341 individuals. Mean numbers (± standard error) of seedlings, flowering individuals and individuals exhibiting capsule development recorded in the population were 43 ± 14, 33 ± 9 and 2 ± 1 respectively. The 2022 surveys did not detect the species. An area of potential habitat was derived from records in biodiversity databases, which determined a total historical extent of 1.38 ha restricted to the Kurnell Peninsula in Sydney, New South Wales. The priority next step is to gather contemporary data to confirm whether the Botany Bay Bearded Greenhood remains extant, which can be done by applied researchers, students, landholders and land managers, botanical practitioners and/or volunteers. For optimal species detection, we recommend undertaking formal surveys or opportunistic searches in historically known sites and replicating detection efforts across July–September periods to exploit seasonal flowering.

Quantifying the relative contributions of habitat modification and mammalian predators on landscape-scale declines of a threatened river specialist duck.

Habitat modification and introduced mammalian predators are linked to global species extinctions and declines, but their relative influences can be uncertain, often making conservation management difficult. Using landscape-scale models, we quantified the relative impacts of habitat modification and mammalian predation on the range contraction of a threatened New Zealand riverine duck. We combined 38 years of whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos) observations with national-scale environmental data to predict relative likelihood of occurrence (RLO) under two scenarios using bootstrapped boosted regression trees (BRT). Our models used training data from contemporary environments to predict the potential contemporary whio distribution across New Zealand riverscapes in the absence of introduced mammalian predators. Then, using estimates of environments prior to human arrival, we used the same models to hindcast potential pre-human whio distribution prior to widespread land clearance. Comparing RLO differences between potential pre-human, potential contemporary and observed contemporary distributions allowed us to assess the relative impacts of the two main drivers of decline; habitat modification and mammalian predation. Whio have undergone widespread catastrophic declines most likely linked to mammalian predation, with smaller declines due to habitat modification (range contractions of 95% and 37%, respectively). We also identified areas of potential contemporary habitat outside their current range that would be suitable for whio conservation if mammalian predator control could be implemented. Our approach presents a practical technique for estimating the relative importance of global change drivers in species declines and extinctions, as well as providing valuable information to improve conservation planning.

Intense work for mangrove planting, forest, and land rehabilitation efforts, and generating the coastal community economy in the pandemic era

Mangrove forest is a unique, transitional ecosystem between seawater and freshwater ecosystems. Indonesia has an existing mangrove area of 3,364,081 Ha, of which the area of potential mangrove habitat is 756,183 Ha. The high value of this mangrove ecosystem places mangroves as one of the targets for rehabilitation in Indonesia. South Sumatra Province is one of Indonesia’s provinces with high mangrove potential. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the activities of the business world experienced significant disruption in production, distribution, and other operational activities, ultimately disrupting the performance of the national economy. Along with the decline in the Indonesian economy as a result of the Covid 19 Pandemic, it automatically has an impact on the economic conditions of the people who live in coastal areas, where most of their lives depend on the pond business they manage or even from fishing with an unstable income level. This review highlights the progress aimed at mangrove planting and forest rehabilitation during the pandemic era by generating the coastal community in South Sumatra.

Ensemble projections of fish distribution in response to climate changes in the Yellow and Bohai Seas, China

Climate change is an important driving force affecting species distribution, so quantifying the influences of climate change on species distributions is necessary for effective fishery management. To identify the geographical distribution pattern and future potential suitable habitat area of fishes in the Yellow and Bohai Seas (YBS), we built ensemble models of spatial distribution for 22 important fish species using 3185 valid distributional records and 9 environmental variables extracted from multiple databases. The constructed ensemble models showed high accuracy with mean AUC, Kappa and TSS values of 0.97, 0.82 and 0.84. Salinity and temperature proximal to the seabed were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of fishes. Presently, the number of important fish species (NIFS) tends to be low in the Bohai Sea and high in the Yellow Sea. Future projections indicated that there would be obvious interspecific differences in the geographical distribution of fishes, and the number of species with range contractions is predicted to be greater than that of range expansions. Coastal fishes and cold temperate fishes are predicted to narrow their occupied areas. In the future, the NIFS in the YBS is expected to increase overall. Spatially, sporadic areas in the central and southern Yellow Sea will have a reduced NIFS, while the Bohai Sea, coastal waters near the southern Shandong Peninsula and the northern East China Sea may experience increased NIFS. Our results provide a theoretical basis for predicting the climate-driven range shifts of fishes in one of the world’s most heavily impacted marine ecosystems, that can be extended to develop climate-adaptive management strategies.

Predictions Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios: The Habitat of Typical Locust Species Is Shrinking in Kazakhstan and Xinjiang, China.

Simple SummaryWe use maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, modelling to predict habitat change and inform on potential prevention and control of locust disasters. Our research work is based on three kinds of migratory locusts in a niche overlap and the geographic distribution of preliminary forecast of the locust, the geographical distribution of typical quantitative habitat suitability change, understanding the China–Kazakhstan border areas, the concentrated distribution area of typical locusts and its future expansion area. The scope of the initial assessment of typical locusts confirms the emphases of the locust control between the two countries in the region, to provide a basis for future monitoring work. Large-scale locust monitoring measures are difficult to implement in practice; therefore, this study will provide a regional monitoring focus for locust control efforts. Our study complements this by assessing priority areas for prevention.Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus, 1758)), Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria Linnaeus, 1758), and Siberian locust (Gomphocerus sibiricus (Linnaeus, 1767)) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions. Predicting the geographic distribution changes and future habitats of locusts in the context of climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. In this study, the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, employing a combination of climatic, soil, and topographic factors, was used to predict the potential fitness areas of typical locusts in the 2030s and 2050s, assuming four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. Modeling results showed that the mean area under the curve (AUC) and true statistical skill (TSS) of the MaxEnt model reached 0.933 and 0.7651, respectively, indicating that the model exhibited good prediction performance. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species were mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, and the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 × 104–4.6 × 104 km2 by the 2030s and by 6.4 × 104–10.6 × 104 km2 by the 2050s. As the climate becomes more extreme, the suitable area will shrink, but the highly suitable area will expand; thus, the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. Our study present a timely investigation to add to extensive literature currently appearing regarding the myriad ways climate change may affect species. While this naturally details a limited range of taxa, methods and potential impacts may be more broadly applicable to other locust species.

Tackling climate change impacts on biodiversity towards integrative conservation in Atlantic landscapes

Throughout the last decades, the increasing pressure of anthropogenic (climate and land-use) changes has been a major impact on biodiversity in several regions and habitat types. These drivers have disturbed the timing of reproduction in animals and plants as well as the migration of animals resulting in changes in population size and species distribution. Our study analyses the impact of climate change in the spatial distribution of selected species, between historical period (1950–2018) and future period (2041–2070), in four case studies at a watershed level over the Atlantic region, highlighting the importance of integrating landscape trends to anticipate key biodiversity pattern responses. The results were compared to predicted future climate projections (2041–2070), based on two IPCC scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using a 5-model ensemble developed under the EURO-CORDEX project. Further, complementary downscaling methodologies were applied, allowing the increase of the spatial resolution from ~12 km to ~1 km in all climate variables. Land cover maps were developed using the Forecasting Landscape Scenarios Model. We assessed the impact of projected climate change and land cover development on specific vulnerable species distribution for each case study. The results showed an overall temperature increase for all case studies and both representative concentration pathways scenarios and a shift in potential habitat area of species addressed to areas upstream of the catchments. These predictions have a strong importance in defining conservation strategies of these vulnerable species, and may overall bring guidelines for the management of Atlantic landscapes in response to climate change, namely as pertinent ecological indicators under realistic future changing regional scenarios. • A projected rise in temperature is observed for all case studies. • Climate change and land cover evolution has great impact in future species habitat. • Integrative land cover and climate change provide refined results of habitat area. • Species potential habitat areas tend to decrease.

Modeling habitat use and potential distribution of kit fox in the Trans‐Pecos, Texas

AbstractManagement of a species requires knowledge of their distribution and the environmental factors that influence their use of an area. The kit fox (Vulpes macrotis) is a small fox species endemic to the threatened desert grasslands of the western United States and northern Mexico. Little information exists on the status and distribution of kit fox in Texas, USA; however, researchers have documented population declines in the closely related swift fox (Vuples velox) in the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, our objectives were to survey areas of potential kit fox habitat using remote trail cameras to determine use and detection rates for kit fox, evaluate and quantify environmental effects on habitat use, and map potential distribution of kit fox habitat throughout the Trans‐Pecos using results from the preceding occupancy analysis. We conducted camera surveys at 732 baited sites from March 2018 to March 2020, with each survey lasting 14 days on average (~10,248 camera‐days). We detected kit fox at 99 of 732 camera survey sites. We divided surveys into 3‐day sampling occasions and fit single‐season occupancy models to test for an effect of sampling occasion and season on detection and for effects of slope, elevation, shrub height, shrub canopy cover, percent litter, percent herbaceous cover, and bare ground on habitat use. Overall detection was 0.31 ± 0.001 (SE) and was influenced by sampling occasion and season, with detection being highest during November to February and earlier in the survey. Mean probability of use for sites was 0.17 ± 0.01 (range = 0.00–0.85) and was influenced by 4 environmental covariates, with the greatest probability of use in areas with gentler slopes, lower elevations, shorter shrubs, and a greater percentage bare ground. We used the most supported model to make a map of predicted habitat use across the Trans‐Pecos region and showed evidence of model fit. Our work provides detailed baseline information on the distribution and environmental relationships of kit fox in the region and can be used to assist with future research and monitoring efforts.

Highlighting the plight of threatened lianas: Distribution, dynamics, and potential habitat areas of a critically endangered species

Lianas are a major component of tropical rainforests, contribute to its biodiversity and are beneficial for wildlife and ecosystems functioning. Some tropical lianas are known to be invasive and could slow down tree growth. As a consequence, lianas are often disregarded in conservation programs. Eleutharrhena macrocarpa (Menispermaceae) is a critically endangered liana primarily restricted to the primary rainforests of southern Yunnan. It is used to showcase the status of threatened lianas and highlight their conservation status by providing the number of individuals, distribution, current age structure and future dynamics, and potential habitat areas. From 2019 to 2021, we conducted the first field survey for this species along its distribution range. We drew the current age structure by using base diameter and predicted age structure dynamics by using the static life table. We predicted potential habitat areas under different climate scenarios by using Maxent modeling. We found 105 individuals, distributed in 26 different populations, and most individuals belonged to the I to III age classes. The static life table predicted that most individuals will die after age class III. This may be the result from the reduction of canopy gaps or a natural selection process. 42.3% of populations only had a single individual, and those populations may disappear without conservation efforts. Potential habitat areas are declining under all 3 future climate scenarios and parts of Xishuangbanna prefecture in Yunnan, northwestern Myanmar and northern Laos are relatively stable under those climate scenarios. Hence, we suggest Xishuangbanna national nature reserves as a priority conservation area. This study reflects the imperiled status of E. macrocarpa and shows how field survey, age structure, the static life table, morphological comparisons and Maxent could provide conservation ideas for the estimated 1700 threatened tropical lianas in the world.

Repurposing open‐source data from weather radars to reduce the costs of aerial waterbird surveys

Abstract Aerial counts are the primary means of monitoring waterbird populations. A valid population assessment requires a significant proportion of the population to be surveyed. For broad‐ranging species, this requires costly reconnaissance flights and surveys over large areas of potential habitat. Here, we assess whether free, autonomously collected weather radar reflectivity data can identify waterbird aggregations over broad areas of potential habitat, thereby providing a low‐cost means of directing the timing and location of aerial survey counts. Our study was undertaken over a large flood plain known to be a key seasonal nesting area of the Magpie Goose (Anseranas semipalmata). A standardized aerial survey technique was employed, firstly using reconnaissance flights to determine when the birds were nesting and then 400‐m wide transects 3 km apart over approximately 1100 km, visually counting the geese. Radar reflectivity data from an operational weather radar in Darwin, Australia, 2 weeks prior to and during the aerial survey, were processed to link averaged radar reflectivity to terrestrial habitat at a spatial polar resolution of 250 m × 0.5°. A binary classification approach evaluated the accuracy, precision, sensitivity and specificity of reflectivity data in identifying areas where the aerial surveys recorded geese. Aerial surveys of Magpie Geese are most effective when the geese are nesting, which is usually identified by reconnaissance flights. Here, we show nesting correlated with a decline in radar reflectivity and a concentration of hotspots. By achieving reasonable accuracy and precision (77% and 67%, respectively), the weather radar reflectivity identified high aggregations of Magpie Geese and demonstrated high efficacy when identifying areas where Magpie Geese did not occur (specificity, 94%). We conclude that using weather radar data to guide aerial survey timing would reduce reconnaissance flight needs, and enable aerial surveys to focus on areas with a large proportion of the target waterbird population.

Potential geographical distribution of Stipa purpurea across the Tibetan Plateau in China under climate change in the 21st century

Stipa purpurea ( S. purpurea ), a dominant herbage resource in alpine steppe, has an important impact on animal husbandry and the maintenance of natural environmental stability in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). As a hot spot of global warming, the TP has been greatly affected by climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we simulated the potential habitat changes of S. purpurea on the TP in the 21st century using 197 distribution records combined with current (2000–2018) and future (2021–2100) climate data. We also analyzed the critical factors influencing habitat distribution and driving habitat change. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performed well, with the area under the curve (AUC) value of training data and test data being 0.845 and 0.722, respectively. Annual precipitation, elevation, and annual average temperature were identified as the most critical environmental factors shaping the potential distribution of S. purpurea , and temperature was identified as the most critical factor driving S. purpurea habitat change. Under the current climate, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea was 55.15 × 10 4 km 2 , mainly distributed in the Eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe, Southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe, and Ngari montane desert. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitat area of S. purpurea showed an overall increasing trend, under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) was 87.37 × 10 4 km 2 and 57.80 × 10 4 km 2 , respectively. A comparison of warming scenarios indicated that warming had a positive effect on the distribution of S. purpurea within a certain temperature range, but continued warming would limit distribution ranges. In response to climate warming in the 21st century, potential habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes. These results will provide a reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies on the TP and similar regions . • Species distribution modeling was used to predict the distribution of S. purpurea . • The “BioVars” package was used to calculate 19 bioclimatic variables. • Temperature contributed most to driving habitat redistribution of S. purpurea . • Warming had a positive effect on S. purpurea within a certain range. • Habitats of S. purpurea will shift northwestward and to higher altitudes.