Arctic Sea Ice Decline Research Articles

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Onset Timing From Passive Microwave‐Based and Surface Air Temperature‐Based Methods

AbstractMelt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice has been monitored using satellite‐based passive microwave (PMW) observations since 1979. In this work, surface air temperatures from the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface and NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder are used to derive MO date estimates using three threshold methods which are then compared with a record of PMW‐based MO dates. Results from the PMW data indicate a shift toward increasingly early MO timing, with significant trends as large as −9.45 days/decade in the E. Siberian Sea and −5.69 days/decade for the entire Arctic, consistent with other studies highlighting the overall decline of Arctic sea ice. Results indicate that the surface air temperature‐based MO date estimates produced using a −1 °C threshold are ~11 days later than the PMW‐based MO date estimates Arctic wide. A statistical comparison of the Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface and PMW‐based MO dates indicate that despite the ~11‐day bias, correlations between the MO date time series are generally good (≥0.6) for most of the Arctic Ocean while the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and PMW‐based MO dates are generally better at capturing the statistically similar long‐term trends in MO dates for the Arctic and several Arctic subregions. Application of these results can contribute to the development of new methods to monitor the sea ice melting state.

Effects of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking on Arctic Sea Ice Decline in Winter at Weekly Time Scales

In this study, the effects of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking circulation on Arctic sea ice decline at weekly time scales are examined by defining four key regions based on observational data analysis. Given the regression analysis, the frequently occurring atmospheric patterns related to the sea ice decline in four key sea regions (Baffin Bay, Barents-Kara Seas, Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea) are found to be Greenland blocking (GB), Ural blocking (UB), western Pacific blocking (PB-W) and eastern Pacific blocking (PB-E), respectively. The results show that the regional blocking frequency is higher (lower) in lower (higher) sea ice winters for each key region. Moreover, composite analysis indicates that blocking evolution is usually accompanied by significant sea ice decline at weekly time scales during the blocking life cycle for each key region. In addition, the intensified surface downward infrared radiation (IR) anomaly and the precipitable water for the entire atmosphere (PWA) in each key region are found to make significant contributions to the positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly, which is beneficial for the reduction in sea ice. The approximate quantitative analysis of different surface energy fluxes induced by blocking is also applied. Further analysis shows that the blocking event and the associated changes in SAT and radiation anomalies for each key region lead the sea ice decline by approximately 3~6 days. This result indicates that regional blocking can contribute to regional sea ice decline at weekly time scales through surface warming associated with enhanced water vapor and associated IR variations. Further quantitative estimates indicate that regional blocking can reduce regional sea ice cover (SIC) by 49.6%, 49.4%, 52.2% and 49.5% for Baffin Bay, Barents-Kara Seas, Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea, respectively, during the blocking life cycle. Finally, a physical process diagrammatic sketch is given to illustrate how blocking affects SIC decline.

Does Global Warming Drive Changes in Arctic Sea Ice?

Satellite radiometry and visual imagery of Arctic sea ice since 1979 have allowed us to track its dramatic seasonal cycle in which 70% of the March maximum sea ice area is gone by September. This extreme seasonal cycle is taken to imply that Arctic sea ice area is sensitive to ambient temperature. The satellite data also show a long term year to year decline in Arctic sea ice in every season concurrent with global warming. This concurrence has led to the assumption that the observed long term decline in sea ice is a response to global warming. This study is a test of that hypothesis. Arctic sea ice data for each calendar month are tested for the responsiveness of sea ice area to global warming at annual and five-year time scales using detrended correlation analysis. Satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature over the north polar region are used as the relevant measure of global warming. It is found that of the twelve calendar months only two contain both statistically significant sea ice loss and statistically significant correlation of the rate of sea ice loss with global warming. These results do not constitute convincing evidence of correlation required to support the assumption that sea ice decline is driven by global warming. It is likely that the observed loss in sea ice area is a more complex phenomenon possibly with roles for winds, ocean currents, geothermal heat, and natural multidecadal variability of ocean characteristics not measured and not fully understood. Global warming may play a role in what may be a complex multivariate phenomenon but the data do not show that global warming drives year to year changes in Arctic sea ice area or that the decline can be halted or moderated by taking climate action.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Significantly Contributed to the Unprecedented Liquid Freshwater Accumulation in the Beaufort Gyre of the Arctic Ocean

AbstractThe Beaufort Gyre (BG) is the largest liquid freshwater reservoir of the Arctic Ocean. The liquid freshwater content (FWC) significantly increased in the BG in the 2000s during an anticyclonic wind regime and remained at a high level despite a transition to a more cyclonic state in the early 2010s. It is not well understood to what extent the rapid sea ice decline during this period has modified the trend and variability of the BG liquid FWC in the past decade. Our numerical simulations show that about 50% of the liquid freshwater accumulated in the BG in the 2000s can be explained by the sea ice decline caused by the Arctic atmospheric warming. Among this part of the FWC increase, 60% can be attributed to surface freshening associated with the reduction of the net sea ice thermodynamic growth rate, and 40% to changes in ocean circulation, which makes freshwater more accessible to the BG for storage. Thus, the rapid increase of the BG FWC in the 2000s was due to the concurrence of the anticyclonic wind regime and the high freshwater availability. We also find that if the Arctic sea ice had not declined, the liquid FWC in the BG would have shown a stronger decreasing tendency at the beginning of the 2010s owing to the cyclonic wind regime. From our results we argue that changes in sea ice conditions should be adequately taken into account when it comes to understanding and predicting variations of BG liquid FWC in a changing climate.

Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies

Following the gradual decline of Arctic sea ice, shipping using Arctic routes increased from 2010. This led to an upsurge in the number of studies investigating the potential of Arctic maritime routes. A systematic literature review was conducted to assess the extant literature from 1980 to 2017 on comparative studies between Arctic and traditional routes. This review also aimed to provide an initial understanding on route choice decision-making factors and to contribute to the literature by providing suggestions for future research and methodological considerations. The competitiveness of Arctic routes is evaluated from both economic and environmental perspectives. Research themes and methodological characteristics are analysed in order to establish an evidence base in Arctic shipping literature. It is identified that analytical research methods and transport cost models are mainly employed. The results indicate that although Arctic routes can be more cost-effective and energy efficient compared to traditional ones, especially in the long-term, they can mainly serve as seasonal alternatives for bulk and specialised shipping in the short-term.

A possible link between winter Arctic sea ice decline and a collapse of the Beaufort High?

A new study by Moore et al., (2018, this issue) highlights a collapse of the anticyclonic 'Beaufort High' atmospheric circulation over the western Arctic Ocean in the winter of 2017 and an associated reversal of the sea ice drift through the southern Beaufort Sea (eastward instead of the predominantly westward circulation). The authors linked this to the loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea, anomalous warming over the region, and the intrusion of low-pressure cyclones along the eastern Arctic. In this commentary we discuss the significance of this observation, the challenges associated with understanding these possible linkages, and some of the alternative hypotheses surrounding the impacts of winter Arctic sea ice loss.

Effects of sea ice on Arctic biota: an emerging crisis discipline.

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice (ASI) extent, area and volume during recent decades is occurring before we can understand many of the mechanisms through which ASI interacts with biological processes both at sea and on land. As a consequence, our ability to predict and manage the effects of this enormous environmental change is limited, making this a crisis discipline Here, we propose a framework to study these effects, defining direct effects as those acting on life-history events of Arctic biota, and indirect effects, where ASI acts upon biological systems through chains of events, normally involving other components of the physical system and/or biotic interactions. Given the breadth and complexity of ASI's effects on Arctic biota, Arctic research requires a truly multidisciplinary approach to address this issue. In the absence of effective global efforts to tackle anthropogenic global warming, ASI will likely continue to decrease, compromising the conservation of many ASI-related taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Mitigation actions will rely heavily on the knowledge acquired on the mechanisms and components involved with the biological effects of ASI.

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Influence of Atlantic Water on the Sea Ice Cover in the Western Arctic in Winter

The results of temperature and salinity measurements in the upper 1000-mlayer of the Nansen Basin in the Arctic Ocean made from the North Pole-35 drifting station in winter of 2007/2008 are analyzed. The uniqueness of the dataset processed is defined by the station drift path in the Nansen Basin and by the time of the drift which immediately followed the record decline of Arctic sea ice in September 2007. It is found that the maximum heat flux from the ocean to the ice cover equal to more than 90 W/m2 was observed in the area of Atlantic water in flow between Spitsbergen and Franz Josef Land. It was caused by the drift velocity increase and by the corresponding deepening of the Ekman boundary layer. No significant changes (as compared to climate normals) in the influence of ocean heat on the ice cover in the eastern Nansen Basin in winter were registered.

Sea ice meiofauna distribution on local to pan-Arctic scales.

Arctic sea ice provides microhabitats for biota that inhabit the liquid‐filled network of brine channels and the ice–water interface. We used meta‐analysis of 23 published and unpublished datasets comprising 721 ice cores to synthesize the variability in composition and abundance of sea ice meiofauna at spatial scales ranging from within a single ice core to pan‐Arctic and seasonal scales. Two‐thirds of meiofauna individuals occurred in the bottom 10 cm of the ice. Locally, replicate cores taken within meters of each other were broadly similar in meiofauna composition and abundance, while those a few km apart varied more; 75% of variation was explained by station. At the regional scale (Bering Sea first‐year ice), meiofauna abundance varied over two orders of magnitude. At the pan‐Arctic scale, the same phyla were found across the region, with taxa that have resting stages or tolerance to extreme conditions (e.g., nematodes and rotifers) dominating abundances. Meroplankton, however, was restricted to nearshore locations and landfast sea ice. Light availability, ice thickness, and distance from land were significant predictor variables for community composition on different scales. On a seasonal scale, abundances varied broadly for all taxa and in relation to the annual ice algal bloom cycle in both landfast and pack ice. Documentation of ice biota composition, abundance, and natural variability is critical for evaluating responses to decline in Arctic sea ice. Consistent methodology and protocols must be established for comparability of meiofauna monitoring across the Arctic. We recommend to (1) increase taxonomic resolution of sea ice meiofauna, (2) focus sampling on times of peak abundance when seasonal sampling is impossible, (3) include the bottom 30 cm of ice cores rather than only bottom 10 cm, (4) preserve specimens for molecular analysis to improve taxonomic resolution, and (5) formulate a trait‐based framework that relates to ecosystem functioning.

Comparison of Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice in Three Coupled Models

Abstract In this study the mechanisms for low-frequency variability of summer Arctic sea ice are analyzed using long control simulations from three coupled models (GFDL CM2.1, GFDL CM3, and NCAR CESM). Despite different Arctic sea ice mean states, there are many robust features in the response of low-frequency summer Arctic sea ice variability to the three key predictors (Atlantic and Pacific oceanic heat transport into the Arctic and the Arctic dipole) across all three models. In all three models, an enhanced Atlantic (Pacific) heat transport into the Arctic induces summer Arctic sea ice decline and surface warming, especially over the Atlantic (Pacific) sector of the Arctic. A positive phase of the Arctic dipole induces summer Arctic sea ice decline and surface warming on the Pacific side, and opposite changes on the Atlantic side. There is robust Bjerknes compensation at low frequency, so the northward atmospheric heat transport provides a negative feedback to summer Arctic sea ice variations. The influence of the Arctic dipole on summer Arctic sea ice extent is more (less) effective in simulations with less (excessive) climatological summer sea ice in the Atlantic sector. The response of Arctic sea ice thickness to the three key predictors is stronger in models that have thicker climatological Arctic sea ice.

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

Disentangling the coupling between sea ice and tundra productivity in Svalbard

The rapid decline in Arctic sea ice poses urgent questions concerning its ecological effects, such as on tundra terrestrial productivity. However, reported sea ice/terrestrial productivity linkages have seldom been constrained, and the mechanism governing them remains elusive, with a diversity of spatial scales and metrics proposed, at times in contradiction to each other. In this study, we use spatially explicit remotely sensed sea ice concentration and high-resolution terrestrial productivity estimates (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) across the Svalbard Archipelago to describe local/sub-regional and large-scale components of sea ice/terrestrial productivity coupling. Whereas the local/sub-regional component is attributed to sea breeze (cold air advection from ice-covered ocean onto adjacent land during the growing season), the large-scale component might reflect co-variability of sea ice and tundra productivity due to a common forcing, such as large-scale atmospheric circulation (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Our study clarifies the range of mechanisms in sea ice/terrestrial productivity coupling, allowing the generation of testable hypotheses about its past, present, and future dynamics across the Arctic.

Arctic sea-ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The ongoing decline of Arctic sea ice exposes the ocean to anomalous surface heat and freshwater fluxes, resulting in positive buoyancy anomalies that can affect ocean circulation. In this study, we use an optimal flux perturbation framework and comprehensive climate model simulations to estimate the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to such buoyancy forcing over the Arctic and globally, and more generally to sea-ice decline. It is found that on decadal timescales, flux anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic have the largest impact on the AMOC, while on multi-decadal timescales (longer than 20 years), flux anomalies in the Arctic become more important. These positive buoyancy anomalies spread to the North Atlantic, weakening the AMOC and its poleward heat transport. Therefore, the Arctic sea-ice decline may explain the suggested slow-down of the AMOC and the ‘Warming Hole’ persisting in the subpolar North Atlantic. Sea-ice loss has exposed the Arctic Ocean to anomalous heat and freshwater. Climate model experiments suggest that these changes, particularly on multi-decadal timescales, may explain the observed slow-down in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice (largely externally forced). Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere), in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model (not model-dependent). Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

Connections between north‐central United States summer hydroclimatology and Arctic sea ice variability

ABSTRACTArctic sea ice has been shrinking at unprecedented rates over the past three decades. These cryospheric changes have coincided with greater incidence of global extreme weather conditions, including increased severity and frequency of summer heatwaves and extreme rainfall events. Recent studies identify potential physical mechanisms related to Rossby wave and resonance theories that may attribute the observed changes in extreme summer weather patterns to Arctic sea ice decline. This study explores the linkages between summer Arctic sea ice variability and hydroclimate of the north‐central United States (US) during the 1979 to 2013 period. Since 1979, summers with low sea ice conditions have coincided with significant increases in mean, minimum, maximum, and dew point air temperatures. Also apparent are increases in seasonal precipitation, the number of wet days, heavy (>95th percentile) precipitation days, and accumulated precipitation over the region. These moisture changes coincide with atmospheric patterns typically observed during anomalously wet summers, known to prompt flooding across the Upper Mississippi River Valley (UMRV) region. Low sea ice summers have coincided with (1) enhanced southerly air flow and increased activity of the Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ) over the study area, (2) increased occurrence of moist tropical air masses over the UMRV region, and (3) amplified 500 hPa flow over the Pacific‐North American region with a ridge situated over the central‐eastern portions of the North American continent emanating from Greenland and the central Arctic basin. The results suggest summer Arctic sea ice variability has been associated with recent hydroclimate anomalies of the north‐central United States and the UMRV region and add to our growing knowledge of the connections between a changing Arctic environment and concurrent mid‐latitude climate variability.

Atmospheric circulation patterns which promote winter Arctic sea ice decline

The impact of winter atmospheric blocking over the Ural Mountains region (UB) coincident with different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the sea ice variability over the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) in winter is investigated. It is found that the UB in conjunction with the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+) leads to the strongest sea ice decline. During this phase composites and trajectory analyses reveal an efficient moisture pathway to the BKS from the mid-latitude North Atlantic near the Gulf Stream Extension region where water vapor is abundant due to high sea surface temperatures. The NAO+-UB combination is an optimal circulation pattern that significantly increases the BKS water vapor that plays a major role in the BKS warming and sea ice reduction, while the increased sensible and latent heat fluxes play secondary roles. By contrast, much fewer dramatic impacts on the BKS are observed when the UB coincides with the neutral or negative phases of the NAO.Our results present new insights into the complex processes involved with Arctic sea ice reduction and warming. The mechanisms highlighted here potentially offer a perspective into the mechanisms behind Arctic multi-decadal climate variability.

Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking

AbstractThe influence of Greenland blocking on continental cold anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere is examined. It is found that westward moving Greenland blocking (WGB) events in the recent decade are more strongly related to the sea ice decline over the Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, and Labrador Sea (BDL), while the quasi‐stationary Greenland blocking (QGB) events are more strongly related to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The frequency of WGB events is significantly increased owing to reduced mid‐high‐latitude westerly winds in the North Atlantic and its upstream region because of intensified Arctic warming related to the large BDL sea ice decline. It is further revealed that North American low temperatures are more sensitive to the WGB, while European low temperatures are more sensitive to the QGB. For the WGB, an intense cold anomaly is seen over the eastern North America. But for the QGB, strong cold anomalies appear over the North Europe and eastern Asia. Thus, it is concluded that more winter cold air outbreaks should occur over the eastern North America, if large BDL sea ice decline continues in the recent decade.

Weakening and shift of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex: Internal variability or forced response?

AbstractRecent studies have proposed that the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex has weakened and shifted away from the North Pole during the past three decades. Some of these studies suggest that this trend has been driven by a decline in Arctic sea ice leading to enhanced zonal wave number 1 waves propagating into the stratosphere and that it has in turn contributed to a recent wintertime surface cooling over North America and some parts of Eurasia. Here trends in several measures of the location and strength of the stratospheric polar vortex from 1980 to 2016 are examined in two reanalysis products. All measures show weakening and equatorward shift trends, but only one measure, the vortex centroid latitude, has a trend which is statistically significant at the 95% level in both reanalyses. By comparing large ensembles of historical simulations with preindustrial control simulations for two coupled climate models, the ensemble mean response of the vortex is found to be small relative to internal variability. There is also no relationship between sea ice decline and trends in either vortex location or strength. Despite this, individual ensemble members are found to have vortex trends similar to those observed, indicating that these trends may be primarily a result of natural internally generated climate variability.

Local increase of anticyclonic wave activity over northern Eurasia under amplified Arctic warming

AbstractIn an attempt to resolve the controversy as to whether Arctic sea ice loss leads to more midlatitude extremes, a metric of finite‐amplitude wave activity is adopted to quantify the midlatitude wave activity and its change during the period of the drastic Arctic sea ice decline in both ERA Interim reanalysis data and a set of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project‐type of model experiments. Neither the ensemble mean response to the trend in the SST nor that to the declining trend of Arctic sea ice can replicate the sizable midlatitude‐wide increase in the total wave activity (Ae) observed in the reanalysis, leaving its explanation to the atmospheric internal variability. On the other hand, both the diagnostics of the flux of the local anticyclonic wave activity (LAWA) and atmospheric general circulation model experiments lend evidence to a possible linkage between the sea ice loss near the Barents and Kara Seas and the increasing trend of LAWA over the northern part of the central Eurasia and the associated impacts on the frequency of temperature extremes.