Abstract
We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.
Highlights
Over Eurasia, the wintertime large-scale climatological circulation has two distinct characteristics
We have demonstrated strong linkages between the intermodel spread of the pan-Arctic sea-ice decline and the Eurasian climate
The intermodel spread of the Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is significantly linked to the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) response of the Eurasian climate, including (1) the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Eurasian continent, (2) the Icelandic low and possibly the northeastern Atlantic storm tracks, (3) the SLP over Mediterranean Europe, and (4) the eastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response
Summary
Over Eurasia, the wintertime large-scale climatological circulation has two distinct characteristics. In response to the sea-ice decline and AA, some numerical studies have shown a negative AO-like/NAO-like circulation (e.g., Magnusdottir et al, 2004; Sokolova et al, 2007; Peings and Magnusdottir, 2014; Blackport and Kushner, 2017), and a higher SLP over northern Eurasia (Deser et al, 2016). These circulation changes potentially advect more cold polar air equatorward. All atmospheric and oceanic variables are interpolated to a horizontal resolution of 2.5◦ × 2.5◦ and 1.0◦ × 1.0◦, respectively
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