Application Of Risk Analysis Methods Research Articles

Functional Modeling of an Industrial System

In steelworks, due to the complex nature of operations, systems, procedures and methods always involve a certain amount of risk. It is not possible to eliminate all hazards, so the goal is to eliminate and/or control high and critical potential hazards and reduce the rest of the hazards to the lowest reasonable risk level in order to protect workers and equipment against damage and to ensure the proper functioning of the production chain. Risk assessment involves identifying and analyzing the hazards, the sequences of events leading to the hazards, and the risk of hazardous events. The objective of this work is the functional modeling of steelworks of the steel complex of EL-MILIA JIJEL (ALGERIAN QATARI STEEL) and the application of risk analysis methods (STPA, D-Higraph) to identify, analyze the dangers and recommend the necessary control measures for them.

A Modular System for Treating Moving Anatomical Targets With Scanned Ion Beams at Multiple Facilities: Pre-Clinical Testing for Quality and Safety of Beam Delivery.

BackgroundQuality management and safety are integral to modern radiotherapy. New radiotherapy technologies require new consensus guidelines on quality and safety. Established analysis strategies, such as the failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and incident learning systems have been developed as tools to assess the safety of several types of radiation therapies. An extensive literature documents the widespread application of risk analysis methods to photon radiation therapy. Relatively little attention has been paid to performing risk analyses of nascent radiation therapy systems to treat moving tumors with scanned heavy ion beams. The purpose of this study was to apply a comprehensive safety analysis strategy to a motion-synchronized dose delivery system (M-DDS) for ion therapy.MethodsWe applied a risk analysis method to new treatment planning and treatment delivery processes with scanned heavy ion beams. The processes utilize a prototype, modular dose delivery system, currently undergoing preclinical testing, that provides new capabilities for treating moving anatomy. Each step in the treatment process was listed in a process map, potential errors for each step were identified and scored using the risk probability number in an FMEA, and the possible causes of each error were described in a fault tree analysis. Solutions were identified to mitigate the risk of these errors, including permanent corrective actions, periodic quality assurance (QA) tests, and patient specific QA (PSQA) tests. Each solution was tested experimentally.ResultsThe analysis revealed 58 potential errors that could compromise beam delivery quality or safety. Each of the 14 binary (pass-or-fail) tests passed. Each of the nine QA and four PSQA tests were within anticipated clinical specifications. The modular M-DDS was modified accordingly, and was found to function at two centers.ConclusionWe have applied a comprehensive risk analysis strategy to the M-DDS and shown that it is a clinically viable motion mitigation strategy. The described strategy can be utilized at any ion therapy center that operates with the modular M-DDS. The approach can also be adapted for use at other facilities and can be combined with existing safety analysis systems.

Project Portfolio Resource Risk Assessment considering Project Interdependency by the Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Resource risk caused by specific resource sharing or competition among projects due to resource constraints is a major issue in project portfolio management, which challenges the application of risk analysis methods effectively. This paper presents a methodology by using a fuzzy Bayesian network to assess the project portfolio resource risk, determine critical resource risk factors, and propose risk-reduction strategies. In this method, the project portfolio resource risk factors are first identified by taking project interdependency into consideration, and then the Bayesian network model is developed to analyze the risk level of the identified risk factors in which expert judgments and fuzzy set theory are integrated to determine the probabilities of all risk factors to deal with incomplete risk data and information. To reduce the subjectivity of expert judgments, the expert weights are determined by combining experts’ background and reliability degree of expert judgments. A numerical analysis is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. The results show that project portfolio resource risks can be analyzed effectively and efficiently. Furthermore, “poor communication and cooperation among projects,” “capital difficulty,” and “lack of sharing technology among projects” are considered the leading factors of the project portfolio resource risk. Risk-reduction strategic decisions based on the results of risk assessment can be made, which provide project managers with a useful method or tool to manage project risks.

ДІАГНОСТИЧНИЙ АПАРАТ ДЛЯ ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ СФОРМОВАНОСТІ ГОТОВНОСТІ ОФІЦЕРІВ-ПРИКОРДОННИКІВ ДО ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ МЕТОДІВ АНАЛІЗУ РИЗИКІВ В ОПЕРАТИВНО-СЛУЖБОВІЙ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ

У статті на основі узагальнення результатів аналізу психолого-педагогічної літератури та урахування компонентного складу готовності майбутніх офіцерів-прикордонників до застосування методів аналізу ризику в оперативно-службовій діяльності визначено діагностичний апарат для з’ясування стану сформованості цієї професійно важливої властивості, а саме розроблено критерії, показники та представлено характеристику відповідних рівнів її готовності. Автором запропоновано три критерії, які характеризують структурні компоненти готовності до застосування методів аналізу ризиків, зокрема особистісний, когнітивний і діяльнісний, та відповідні їм показники. Особистісний критерій стосується особистісних характеристик курсантів, без яких неможливо належним чином виконувати завдання з охорони державного кордону. Йдеться про такі професійно важливі якості, як уміння оцінювати обстановку, здатність виконувати швидкі та одночасно ефективні дії у стислі терміни, здатність до критичного мислення, належний рівень пізнавальних психічних процесів, емоційно-вольова стійкість та інші. Мотиваційний критерій готовності до застосування методів аналізу ризиків в оперативно-службовій діяльності стосується мотивації професійної діяльності майбутніх офіцерів-прикордонників до застосування цих методів, відображає інтерес майбутніх офіцерів-прикордонників до застосування методів аналізу ризиків в оперативно-службовій діяльності, ступінь задоволеності її результатами.Когнітивний критерій характеризує сукупність знань про специфіку організації інформаційно-аналітичної діяльності, організації системи управління ризиками в ДПСУ, особливості координації організації та провадження аналізу ризиків; оцінки інформації та джерела інформації для аналізу ризиків. Когнітивний критерій дозволяє охарактеризувати знання майбутніх офіцерів-прикордонників, необхідні для застосування методів аналізу ризику в оперативно-службовій діяльності.Визначення критеріїв дозволило виокремити три рівні сформованості у майбутніх офіцерів-прикордонників готовності до застосування методів аналізу ризику в оперативно-службовій діяльності: низький, середній та оптимальний. У статті представлена якісна характеристика кожного рівня.

Summary of the Report of Task Group 100 of the AAPM: Application of Risk Analysis Methods to Radiation Therapy Quality Management

In 2016, the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) has published a report of task group (TG) 100 with a completely new concept, entitled "application of risk analysis methods to radiation therapy quality management." TG-100 proposed implementation of risk analysis in radiotherapy to prevent harmful radiotherapy accidents. In addition, it enables us to conduct efficient and effective quality management in not only advanced radiotherapy such as intensity-modulated radiotherapy and image-guided radiotherapy but also new technology in radiotherapy. It should be noted that treatment process in modern radiotherapy is absolutely more complex and it needs skillful staff and adequate resources. TG-100 methodology could identify weakness in radiotherapy procedure through assessment of failure modes that could occur in overall treatment processes. All staff in radiotherapy have to explore quality management in radiotherapy safety.

Application of risk-analysis methods in the maintenance of industrial equipment

In the aspect of an individual approach to reliability and risk assessment, the resource safety index method is considered. Its use for large structures and complex systems gives a less conservative estimate of the guaranteed lifetime. The amalgamation rules of individual indicators of reliability and safety of separate elements of the system are offered. The efficiency of the methods is demonstrated on the example of the evaluation of the blast furnace casing technical condition.

Предложение о применении метода анализа риска в системах управления промышленной безопасностью на опасных производственных объектах металлургических производств при проведении проверок

Предложение о применении метода анализа риска в системах управления промышленной безопасностью на опасных производственных объектах металлургических производств при проведении проверок

Quantitative Estimation of the Number of Contaminated Hatching Eggs Released from an Infected, Undetected Turkey Breeder Hen Flock During a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak.

The regulatory response to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the United States may involve quarantine and stop movement orders that have the potential to disrupt continuity of operations in the U.S. turkey industry--particularly in the event that an uninfected breeder flock is located within an HPAI Control Area. A group of government-academic-industry leaders developed an approach to minimize the unintended consequences associated with outbreak response, which incorporates HPAI control measures to be implemented prior to moving hatching eggs off of the farm. Quantitative simulation models were used to evaluate the movement of potentially contaminated hatching eggs from a breeder henhouse located in an HPAI Control Area, given that active surveillance testing, elevated biosecurity, and a 2-day on-farm holding period were employed. The risk analysis included scenarios of HPAI viruses differing in characteristics as well as scenarios in which infection resulted from artificial insemination. The mean model-predicted number of internally contaminated hatching eggs released per movement from an HPAI-infected turkey breeder henhouse ranged from 0 to 0.008 under the four scenarios evaluated. The results indicate a 95% chance of no internally contaminated eggs being present per movement from an infected house before detection. Sensitivity analysis indicates that these results are robust to variation in key transmission model parameters within the range of their estimates from available literature. Infectious birds at the time of egg collection are a potential pathway of external contamination for eggs stored and then moved off of the farm; the predicted number of such infectious birds was estimated to be low. To date, there has been no evidence of vertical transmission of HPAI virus or low pathogenic avian influenza virus to day-old poults from hatching eggs originating from infected breeders. The application of risk analysis methods was beneficial for evaluating outbreak measures developed through emergency response planning initiatives that consider the managed movement of hatching eggs from monitored premises in an HPAI Control Area.

Application of Risk Analysis Methods on Tailings Dams

One of the procedures adopted in a Safety Management System is the use of Risk Analysis for which analytical, iterative, descriptive and qualitative methods, such as the FMEA “Failure Modes and Effects Analysis”, have been applied in order to identify and analyse potential failures from a given failure mode, its causes and consequences, as well as the means of detection and prevention of failure modes and mitigation of their effects. In Brazil the FMEA method has been used to evaluate the safe conditions of tailings dams. On the other hand a specific tool for the Risk Analysis of dams, the LCI “Analysis by Diagrams Location, Cause and Failure Indicators” semi-quantitative method, has been developed and in the United Kingdom under the name of “Risk Management for UK Reservoirs” and applied in Europe but not for tailings dams. Recently the LCI MOD-REJ version – an adaptation of the LCI method – has been proposed and applied to one Brazilian tailings dam to explicit deal with the Risk Analysis of this type of structure. Considering the promising results of the former application, the aim of this paper is to evaluate the LCI MOD-REJ version applicability and efficiency by comparing the results of its and the FMEA method applications to two Brazilian tailings dams.

Risk assessment and structural integrity aspects of materials behaviour

Risk has always been an inherent part of everyday life, but quantified assessment of risk is now an important part of several different aspects of materials and engineering applications. Risk is taken into account as an integral part of the design of many constructions in limit state design through the use of partial safety factors to achieve a target reliability, depending on the consequences of failure and the uncertainties of the input data and design relationships. Risk is also increasingly being used as a basis for decisions on inspection, maintenance, and life extension of engineering structures and infrastructure. As part of the effective management of projects, assessments of the financial risks both for the client and for the contractor are essential requirements. Environmental risk assessments are obligatory for major projects before decisions to proceed can be taken. The current status of the application of risk analysis methods to avoidance of failure by plastic collapse, fracture, buckling, fatigue, creep, and corrosion is reviewed, and applications in a range of industries are considered. The application of risk analysis to the use of new materials, methods of construction, and life extension is then briefly explored. Finally, the importance of a proper understanding of both risk analysis and materials behaviour for students on degree courses is stressed.

Risk assessment and structural integrity aspects of materials behaviour

Risk has always been an inherent part of everyday life, but quantified assessment of risk is now an important part of several different aspects of materials and engineering applications. Risk is taken into account as an integral part of the design of many constructions in limit state design through the use of partial safety factors to achieve a target reliability, depending on the consequences of failure and the uncertainties of the input data and design relationships. Risk is also increasingly being used as a basis for decisions on inspection, maintenance, and life extension of engineering structures and infrastructure. As part of the effective management of projects, assessments of the financial risks both for the client and for the contractor are essential requirements. Environmental risk assessments are obligatory for major projects before decisions to proceed can be taken. The current status of the application of risk analysis methods to avoidance of failure by plastic collapse, fracture, buckling, fatigue, creep, and corrosion is reviewed, and applications in a range of industries are considered. The application of risk analysis to the use of new materials, methods of construction, and life extension is then briefly explored. Finally, the importance of a proper understanding of both risk analysis and materials behaviour for students on degree courses is stressed.

Hazardous Materials Transportation on U.S. Railroads: Application of Risk Analysis Methods to Decision Making in Development of Regulations

The Office of Safety of the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) is responsible for ensuring public and personnel safety in U.S. railroad operations. This office ensures the safe rail transportation of hazardous materials by conducting inspections of railroad operations and equipment, including tank cars, and developing safety-related regulations. In the past few years, the Office of Safety has been using risk analysis as a tool in making rational regulatory decisions on hazardous materials transportation in tank cars. A risk analysis protocol developed by FRA is described to evaluate the risks to the U.S. population arising from the transportation of different types of chemicals in tank cars on the U.S. railroad system. Following several recommendations of the National Transportation Safety Board requiring the shipment of several hazardous chemicals in highly protected, pressure-rated tank cars rather than in the minimum packaging authorized by the Code of Federal Regulations, a risk-based evaluation was made on the effect of implementing these recommendations on the overall risk reduction. The risk results were presented in the parameters of Military Standard 882-B. Policy decisions were made based on the results.

Development and Application of Risk Analysis Methods to Stationary Sources of Carcinogenic Emissions for Regulatory Purposes by the South Coast Air Quality Management District

Desirable qualities of a risk assessment procedure for use in routine assessment of the impact of new and modified stationary sources of carcinogenic emissions are: (1) readily available analysis techniques and (2) simplicity when applied to small sources. Regulatory Gaussian models have these qualities but are limited by their accuracy at large distances and the difficulty of calculating the cancer incidence. Calculation of risk for the maximally exposed individual (MEI risk) and cancer incidence is discussed, and the relations found among MEI risk, de minimus individual risk, cancer incidence, population density, carcinogenic source strength, release conditions, maximum distance to de minimus individual risk, release period, and distance to nearest receptor found from application of these models to a typical situation are described. Suggestions for setting values for maximum allowable MEI risk, maximum allowable cancer incidence and de minimus individual risk are also presented. Several types of carcinogenic sources are examined for their cancer impact. The effect of various maximum allowable exposure parameter values on the source's acceptability is also examined. Screening methods for both MEI risk and cancer incidence is discussed. Application of the analysis method to numerous sources is presented, including use of an empirical equation for cancer incidence.

Application of Risk Analysis Methods to Subsurface Well Collisions

SummarySubsurface separation criteria have evolved empirically over the years. They still are based largely on untested assumptions about safety factors, comfort values, and survey tool accuracy. A mathematical analysis of the probability of collision combined with a decision tree describing the consequences provides a method of risk evaluation. The mathematics can be simplified under certain special assumptions, allowing key features of the problem to be illustrated. A flow chart of the directional-drilling tolerance setting procedure shows how the methods described can be used in daily well-planning operations.

Risikoermittlung und Sicherheitsanalysen in der chemischen Technik

AbstractRisk assessment and safety analysis in chemical engineering. There are in principle two possible ways of assessing the risks originating from industrial plants: the empirical method, which tries to directly evaluate experience from actual hazards and their consequences in the past, and the theoretical‐analytical method, which – in so called risk analyses – uses extensive model calculations to deduce risk values from the interrelationship between minor disturbances and major hazards and their possible consequences. It is shown that in the chemical industry reliable results can only be expected from the empirical method, since indispensable prior conditions for the application of risk analysis methods are not given in operating chemical plants. Because of the considerable degree of uncertainty, theoretically assessed values for risk should not – in the chemical industry – be used for decisions. Empirical risk assessment on the other hand is reliable and makes it clear that the risk from chemical activities is fairly low as compared to other natural and manmade risks for both employees of chemical industries and people living near industrial sites. This is, no doubt, the clear result of the consequent use of hazard and safety analysis methods during the planning and development of chemical plant.