Abstract
Resource risk caused by specific resource sharing or competition among projects due to resource constraints is a major issue in project portfolio management, which challenges the application of risk analysis methods effectively. This paper presents a methodology by using a fuzzy Bayesian network to assess the project portfolio resource risk, determine critical resource risk factors, and propose risk-reduction strategies. In this method, the project portfolio resource risk factors are first identified by taking project interdependency into consideration, and then the Bayesian network model is developed to analyze the risk level of the identified risk factors in which expert judgments and fuzzy set theory are integrated to determine the probabilities of all risk factors to deal with incomplete risk data and information. To reduce the subjectivity of expert judgments, the expert weights are determined by combining experts’ background and reliability degree of expert judgments. A numerical analysis is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. The results show that project portfolio resource risks can be analyzed effectively and efficiently. Furthermore, “poor communication and cooperation among projects,” “capital difficulty,” and “lack of sharing technology among projects” are considered the leading factors of the project portfolio resource risk. Risk-reduction strategic decisions based on the results of risk assessment can be made, which provide project managers with a useful method or tool to manage project risks.
Highlights
A project portfolio (PP) refers to managing projects, programs, subportfolios, and operations to achieve strategic objectives [1], which is regarded as a dynamic system with inherent characteristics such as multicomponent interaction [2] and complex internal and external environments
This paper applies an fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) model for systematically assessing project portfolio resource risk (PPRR) and identifying critical risk factors. e Bayesian network (BN) is built based on identified risk factors considering project interdependency
The results reveal that “poor communication and cooperation among projects,” “capital difficulty,” and “lack of sharing technology among projects” are mainly responsible for the PPRR. e findings provide a reference for project managers to adopt corresponding risk-reduction strategies. e main contributions of this paper can be summarized both theoretically and practically. eoretically, project interdependency is considered in identifying resource risk factors, which further deepens the research on PPRR assessment
Summary
A project portfolio (PP) refers to managing projects, programs, subportfolios, and operations to achieve strategic objectives [1], which is regarded as a dynamic system with inherent characteristics such as multicomponent interaction [2] and complex internal and external environments. Such unique features increase the complexities and uncertainties of the PP and generate various risks in turn. E resource sharing and competition among multiple managers to achieve their respective project goals in the resource-limited environment further exacerbate the complexity of resource management [3, 4] For such cases, inappropriate management of these resources can lead to the project portfolio resource risk (PPRR) and PP failure. To ensure the effective implementation of the PP, early and effective identification and assessment of the PPRR are essential
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