This paper describes a direct method to model under-ice reflection loss from analysis of ice draft data taken from a region of the Arctic near the FRAM IV experiment site. The water–ice boundary is modeled as a random distribution of infinite elliptical half-cylinders fixed to a free surface. Burke and Twersky’s theory [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 40, 883–895 (1966)] of scattering from a single cylindrical protuberance is used to calculate reflectivity from a distribution of scatterers. Individual ice ridge keels are identified from ice draft data resulting in a ridge keel depth distribution function spatially coincident with FRAM IV acoustic propagation paths. The scattering amplitude is weighted by the keel depth distribution function providing an effective ridge keel depth which is used to calculate the under-ice reflectivity. The predicted reflection loss is in good agreement with those inferred from normal-mode methods applied to FRAM IV acoustic field data received on a larger aperture vertical array.