APC Model Research Articles

Global, regional, and national burden of brain and central nervous system cancers for males from 1990 to 2021 and its predicted level in the next 25 years.

A study of the global burden of cerebral and central nervous system (CNS) cancers from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) indicates that these cancers significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality internationally. To fully understand the global impact of CNS cancer, expanded research efforts are essential. We analyzed the temporal trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and made projections for the expected burden from 2020 through 2044. We tapped into GBD 2021 Study data to evaluate CNS cancer incidence and trends among males. Prevalence was assessed with DisMod-MR, trends via cluster analysis, and Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) calculated via linear regression. Forecasts for 2022-2044 used APC and BAPC models, with a P-value < 0.05 considered significant. Analyses relied on R software 4.0.2. In 2021, males experienced between 148,118 and 232,469 new brain and CNS cancer cases, indicating increased global burden from 1990 to 2021. An observed link between the prevalence's EAPCs and Human Development Indices (HDIs) suggests higher incidence in more developed regions. Projections using the APC model suggest rising numbers of cases and losses in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2044, while Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs) are expected to decrease overall. In summary, a higher Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) correlates with better outcomes for CNS cancer due to early medical interventions in regions with strong healthcare systems. This demonstrates the need for equitable healthcare policies that focus on improving diagnostic capabilities and professional training to enhance survival rates universally.

Global, regional, and national burdens of leukemia from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2019 based on the APC model.

Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies. Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI. From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

Age-period-cohort analysis of global, regional, and national pancreatic cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years, 1990–2019

BackgroundPancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers in the world. In recent years, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer have shown an increasing trend year by year. This study investigates the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of pancreatic cancer from 1990 to 2019, and evaluates the differences in the burden of pancreatic cancer across regions with different Sociodemographic Index (SDI) levels.MethodsEstimating the impact of age, period, and cohort on pancreatic cancer disease burden in different SDI regions using age-period-cohort modeling with data (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 and net drift of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) for pancreatic cancer in 120 countries.ResultsThe number of new cases of pancreatic cancer worldwide increased from 197,348 (95% UI: 188,604,203,971) in 1990 to 530,297 (486,175,573,635) in 2019, the number of deaths increased from 198,051 (189,329 to 204,763) in 1990 to 531,107 (491,948 to 566,537) in 2019, and the number of DALY increased from 4,647,207 (4,465,440 to 4,812,129) in 1990 to 11,549,016 (10,777,405 to 1,238,912) in 2019. The ASIR of the average levels in global pancreatic cancer increased from 5.22 (4.97 to 5.40) per 100,000 population to 6.57 (6.00 to 7.09) per 100,000 population, the ASMR increased from 5.34 (5.07 to 5.52) per 100,000 population to 6.62 (6.11 to 7.06) per 100,000 population, and the ASDR increased from 115.47 (110.82 to 119.60) per 100,000 population to 139.61 (130.18 to 149.14) per 100,000 population. The incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer increase with age globally and across all SDI regions, peaking in the 85–89 age group. In high and high-middle SDI regions, the growth rate for males is higher than for females before the age of 85, while females have a higher growth rate after 85. The 75–79 age group exhibits the highest DALY rate in high and high-middle SDI regions, significantly higher than the global and other SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the period effects of pancreatic cancer incidence, mortality, and DALY rates have increased significantly worldwide, while remaining almost unchanged in high and high-middle SDI regions. In contrast, period effects have significantly increased in middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions. Cohort effects are more pronounced in middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions.ConclusionsWith the aggravation of population aging, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the world are increasing, and effective prevention and control measures can be achieved by reducing the exposure of risk factors. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of pancreatic cancer. It can inform the development of targeted interventions to reduce the severe disease burden caused by pancreatic cancer.

Dynamics of Intercity Migration Propensity in China: Evidence from an Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

This research conducts a disaggregation of three major temporal interrelations – age, period, and cohort (APC) – to fully grasp variations in intercity migration propensity in China. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Sixth Population Census in 2010 and the 1% Population Sampling Surveys in 2005 and 2015, we disentangle APC effects on the two-stage migration decision-making process through the Hierarchical APC model. The empirical findings are as follows: the likelihood of migration decreases as individuals age, persisting until their early 60s, after which a slight upward trend is observed. Migrants from the 1940–1985 cohorts exhibit an increasing propensity for migration, which later reverses in subsequent cohorts. However, the average intercity migration propensity does not significantly vary across periods. Furthermore, the decision of where to migrate – whether to move across provincial boundaries – also varies across APC factors. The propensity for interprovincial migration steadily declines with age. The contextual period effects are significant and partially result from the development of foreign-invested enterprises. Individuals born in the 1960s and 1970s are more likely to migrate interprovincially compared to their post-1980s counterparts. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of these results. Our findings shed light on more nuanced mechanisms underlying the dynamics of intercity migration in China, particularly the effects of cohort replacement on migration.

Changes in gender disparities of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older adults in China: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Depression is one of the most common mental disorders and substantially decreases socioemotional well-being and health-related quality of life. Analyzing temporal patterns in depressive symptoms can reveal emerging risks that require attention and have implications for mental health promotion. The present study disentangled age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on trends in depressive symptoms and their gender disparities among China's nationally representative samples of middle-aged and older adults. Using four-wave data (2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018) from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (N = 65455), APC effects were quantified based on the hierarchical APC model. The 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10) was used to measure depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms increased during late life and stabilized after reaching an advanced age. After further adjusting for individual characteristics, depressive symptoms exhibited a negative trend with advancing age. The mean levels of depressive symptoms remained stable during the study period. Depressive symptoms varied significantly across cohorts, with those born in 1949-1951 having the most severe depressive symptoms. Significant life-course and cohort variations existed in the gender gaps in depressive symptoms. Although women had higher mean scores on the CES-D-10 scale throughout the life course, the gender gaps in depressive symptoms gradually narrowed with age, as depressive symptoms decreased more rapidly among women. A widening trend in gender gaps in depressive symptoms was found among those born after the mid-1950s, mainly driven by a notable decline in depressive symptoms among men CONCLUSIONS: The convergence of living conditions between genders in late life, as a result of traditional Chinese culture, may have narrowed the gender gap in depressive symptoms. However, given the widening gender disparities in depressive symptoms among younger cohorts, more attention should be paid to women's mental health in the context of China's rapid socioeconomic development.

Global, regional, and national burdens of mild traumatic brain injuries from 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 - a cross-sectional study.

The objective of this study was to utilize data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to estimate the patterns and prevalence of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) from 1990 to 2019, with the intention of informing the development of efficacious intervention strategies. Data from the GBD 2019 were examined to determine the prevalence, incidence, and rates of years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with mTBI across global geographic populations from 1990 to 2019. To assess temporal patterns, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates were computed. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model (APC model) framework was employed to analyze potential trends in incidence based on age, period, and birth cohort. In 2019, there were a total of 12,268.5 thousand incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 992.66 to 1,602.07), 11,482.5 thousand prevalent cases (95% UI 107.59 to 123.52), and 1,366.9 thousand YLDs (95% UI 96.36 to 183.35) of mTBI worldwide. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs exhibited a decline from 1990 to 2019. Across all age groups, males had higher prevalence, incidence and YLDs rates. Furthermore, middle-aged and elderly adults experienced a greater disease burden. The primary causes of the global mTBI burden in 2019 were falls and road injuries. According to the APC model, the age effect trend exhibited a similar pattern across individual sociodemographic index (SDI) groups, characterized by an initial increase, followed by a decrease and a subsequent increase. Regarding the period effect, each SDI group demonstrated variation, with the middle SDI group notably displaying a consistent increase. Furthermore, in terms of the birth effect, the middle-SDI group experienced the most substantial and continuous increase. The global incident cases and prevalent cases of mTBI increased significantly from 1990 to 2019, with a heavier burden observed in males, older adults, and in low SDI such as Afghanistan. More efforts are needed in the prevention and management of mTBI, such as reducing the incidence of falls among older people and building safer road transport facilities to reduce the burden of mTBI.

An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling

The greatest source of failure in portfolio analytics is not individual models that perform poorly, but rather an inability to integrate models quantitatively across management functions. The separable components of age–period–cohort models provide a framework for integrated credit risk modeling across an organization. Using a panel data structure, credit risk scores can be integrated with an APC framework using either logistic regression or machine learning. Such APC scores for default, payoff, and other key rates fit naturally into forward-looking cash flow estimates. Given an economic scenario, every applicant at the time of origination can be assigned profit and profit volatility estimates so that underwriting can truly be account-level. This process optimizes the most fallible part of underwriting, which is setting cutoff scores and assigning loan pricing and terms. This article provides a summary of applications of APC models across portfolio management roles, with a description of how to create the models to be directly integrated. As a consequence, cash flow calculations are available for each account, and cutoff scores can be set directly from portfolio financial targets.

Abstract 2187: Influences of high-fat diet on tumor biology in a mouse model of colorectal cancer

Abstract Purpose: To test the influence of high-fat diet on tumor biology in the inducible Kras, Apc and p53 (iKAP) model (Boutin, et al Genes & Development 2017, 31:370). Methods: At weening, both male and female mice were fed either a high-fat (60%) or low-fat (10%) diet for 5-6 weeks prior to tumor induction. Mutant Kras expression was controlled using a tet-on system. Expression of mutant Kras was activated by the addition of doxycycline hyclate in the drinking water. Tumor growth was monitored by bi-weekly endoscopy and calculated as percent luminal occlusion. Tumor biology was assessed with proteomics and phospho-proteomics with comparisons by sex and diet. Results: In the absence of mutant Kras expression (no doxycycline in drinking water), tumors were larger in females on high-fat diet compared to low-fat diet. Tumor sizes were not significantly different in males or in the presence of mutant Kras expression. Proteomics analyses of tumor tissue identified significantly different patterns by diet in female mice, including altered levels of KIF4, DAB2iP, JNK cascade and JUN kinase activity (Table). Conclusion: Based on our preliminary data, high-fat diet may alter tumor kinase activities, even in a genetically engineered mouse model. Replication and validation studies are ongoing. Table of significantly upregulated biologic processes in female mice on high-fat diet compared to lo XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Citation Format: Anindita Mahanty, Cara Wallingford, Revan Hammontree, Muturi Njoka, Zachary Clark, Michaella Rekowski, Michael Washburn, Jennifer S. Davis. Influences of high-fat diet on tumor biology in a mouse model of colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 2187.

An artificial intelligence based abdominal aortic aneurysm prognosis classifier to predict patient outcomes

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) have been rigorously investigated to understand when their clinically-estimated risk of rupture—an event that is the 13th leading cause of death in the US—exceeds the risk associated with repair. Yet the current clinical guideline remains a one-size-fits-all “maximum diameter criterion” whereby AAA exceeding a threshold diameter is thought to make the risk of rupture high enough to warrant intervention. However, between 7 and 23.4% of smaller-sized AAA have been reported to rupture with diameters below the threshold. In this study, we train and assess machine learning models using clinical, biomechanical, and morphological indices from 381 patients to develop an aneurysm prognosis classifier to predict one of three outcomes for a given AAA patient: their AAA will remain stable, their AAA will require repair based as currently indicated from the maximum diameter criterion, or their AAA will rupture. This study represents the largest cohort of AAA patients that utilizes the first available medical image and clinical data to classify patient outcomes. The APC model therefore represents a potential clinical tool to striate specific patient outcomes using machine learning models and patient-specific image-based (biomechanical and morphological) and clinical data as input. Such a tool could greatly assist clinicians in their management decisions for patients with AAA.

Situational analysis of periodontal disease burden for adults in China from 1990 to 2019 and its incidence trend prediction

Objective: To analyze the burden and changing trends of periodontal disease in adults of the mainland of China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the incidence trends of periodontal disease in the next 25 years, with a goal to provide a basis for reducing the burden of periodontal disease and formulating relevant prevention and treatment measures. Methods: Data on the incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALY) rate of periodontal disease among adults in the mainland of China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global burden of disease study 2019 (GBD 2019) database. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was used to estimate the temporal trend of periodontal disease, and the age-period-cohort model (APC) was used to predict the age-standardized incidence of periodontal disease in Chinese adults from 2020 to 2044. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and DALY rate of adult periodontal disease in the mainland of China showed an increasing trend, with EAPCs of 0.3 (95%CI: 0.1-0.6), 0.5 (95%CI: 0.1-0.8), and 0.5 (95%CI: 0.1-0.8), respectively. The incidence and prevalence of periodontitis among the population aged 35-39 years old and 40-44 years old increased the most significantly, with EAPCs of 0.8 and 0.7, respectively, whereas the change in periodontal disease prevalence tended to be stable and the increase trend in prevalence was lower in the elderly group (EAPC=0.4). The incidence (EAPC=2.1), prevalence (EAPC=2.6) and DALY rate (EAPC=2.6) of periodontal disease in females increased more than those in males (EAPC=1.9, 2.4, and 2.4, respectively), of which the prevalence had exceeded that of males in 2019. The APC model predicted that the prevalence of periodontal disease in the period of 2020-2044 in China would still be on an upward trend, and the increase rate would be higher in females than in males. Conclusions: The burden of periodontal disease among adults in China had been increasing over the past 30 years, especially among young and middle-aged adults as well as females, and the incidence of periodontal disease will continue to increase over the next 25 years.

The mortality of oral cancer attributable to tobacco in China, the US, and India.

Assessing the mortality rates associated with tobacco-related oral cancer (OC) is crucial for effective allocation of resources within healthcare and economic systems. In this study, data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were utilized to analyze the burden of tobacco-attributable OC in China, the United States (US), and India from 1990 to 2019. Descriptive statistics and an age-period-cohort model were employed to examine and compare the effects on OC mortality. 1. Attributable to tobacco, the deaths remained stable in the US, but increased in China and India. The trend of age-standardized mortality rate of OC increased in China, and decreased in the US and India, whereas the rate in India was the highest. 2. According to the APC model, the risk of death increased with age in all three countries. The period and later birth cohort effects were identified as risk factors in China and India, while in the US, the previous cohorts were identified as a risk factor. Except for India, males faced higher death risk than females in China and the US. The burden of OC attributable to tobacco remains substantial in China and India. Public health officials in these countries should implement prevention and treatment strategies for OC, and interventions aimed at regulating the tobacco industry. The elderly is at an elevated risk for OC, and medical resources and policies should be directed toward this population. The successes experience in tobacco control and OC prevention in the US may serve as a model for other countries.

Trends in disease burden of hepatitis B infection in Jiangsu Province, China, 1990-2021.

The incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) has decreased year by year in China after the expansion of vaccination, but there is still a high disease burden in Jiangsu Province of China. The year-by-year incidence data of HBV in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2021 were collected. The incidence rates of males and females age groups were clustered by systematic clustering, and the incidence rates of each age group were analyzed and studied by using Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort effect model (APC). Joinpoint regression model and APC model showed a general decrease in HBV prevalence in both males and females. In addition, the results of the APC model showed that the age, period, and cohort effects of patients all affected the incidence of HBV, and the incidence was higher in males than in females. The incidence is highest in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years (mean: 21.76/100,000), especially in males (mean: 31.53/100,000) than in females (mean:11.67/100,000). Another high-risk group is those over 60 years of age (mean: 21.40/100,000), especially males (mean: 31.17/100,000) than females (mean: 11.63/100,000). The period effect of the APC model suggests that HBV vaccination is effective in reducing the incidence of HBV in the population. The incidence of HBV in Jiangsu Province showed a gradual downward trend, but the disease burden in males was higher than that in females. The incidence is higher and increasing rapidly in the population between the ages of 15 and 30 years and people over 60 years of age. More targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented for males and the elderly.

Trend of blood donors entering the coronavirus pandemic era and challenges: Age-period-cohort analysis using 75.5 million all blood donations data during 2006-2020 in Japan.

In Japan, "Blood Donation Promotion 2025," a blood donation target, was established based on a predicted blood donation rate of 5.7% in 2025, which was calculated by the Blood Donation Promotion Study Group (BD research group) of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare using nationwide blood donation data through 2018. However, COVID-19 since 2020 may affect the blood donation rate in Japan. Data from 75.5 million blood donations from 2006 to 2020 was used. The age-period-cohort model (APC model) was applied to estimate age, period, and birth cohort factors on blood donation rate and to predict the age-specific blood donation rates from 2021 to 2035. The APC model was highly reproducible for blood donation rates (modified R2 = 0.99). The blood donation rate in 2020 was 6.0% (5.04 million), an increase compared to 2019. Comparing this study with the BD research group, the predicted blood donation rates in 2025 for those 16-19 years old and in 20s are lower (4.8% vs. 5.2% and 5.3% vs. 5.5%) but those among 50s and 60s are higher (7.9% vs. 7.5% and 4.2% vs. 3.9%, respectively). The number of blood donations in 2020 increased despite COVID-19 and it proved that the blood donation promotion was effective. The different age-specific blood donation rates between our study and the report of BD research group infers the effect of COVID-19 on blood donation were differed by age and suggested the need for different approaches to blood donation promotion by generation.

The influence of the age-period-cohort effects on male suicide in Brazil from 1980 to 2019.

Suicide is a complex and multi-determined phenomenon. Higher rates are observed in men and are related to multiple risk factors, including mental disorders, financial crises, unemployment, and easy access to highly lethal means of perpetration, such as firearms. We studied the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on total and firearm-related suicides in men in Brazil and its major regions from 1980 to 2019. Death records were extracted from the Brazilian Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System. Estimable functions were used to estimate APC models, through the Epi library of the R statistical program, version 4.2.1. During the study period, Brazil had an average rate of 10.22 deaths per 100,000 men. Among regions, rates ranged from 8.62 (Northeast) to 16.93 (South). The same profile was observed in suicides by firearms. After estimating the APC models, we observed a temporal trend of increasing total suicides for Brazil and regions, except for the South region, where the trend was stationary. The trend was downward for firearm suicides for all locations. A positive gradient was observed in the mortality rate with advancing age for total suicides; and peak incidence between 20-29 years, with subsequent stabilization, for suicides perpetrated by firearms. There was a reduction in the risk of death for suicides perpetrated by firearms in relation to the reference period (1995-1999) for all locations, except in the North region, where the effect was not significant. The younger generations from the 1960s onwards had a higher risk of death from total suicide and a lower risk for those perpetrated by firearms in relation to the reference cohort (1950-1954). We observed a reduction in the mortality trend for suicides perpetrated by firearms, a reduction in the risk of death in the 2000s and for men born after 1960. Our results suggest reducing the risk of death from suicide by firearms in Brazil and regions. However, there is an upward trend in mortality from total suicides in the study period (1980-2019) and for younger cohorts.

Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019.

In view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies. The study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC. There was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries. The trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.

Changing socialization values for children in China, 1990–2012

This research examines recent trends in child socialization values in China. Drawing on repeated cross-sectional datasets from World Values Survey in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2012, we assess birth cohort changes and time trends in three dimensions of child socialization values: self-actualization, survival security, and other-orientedness. Results from APC models show that Chinese adults emphasize self-actualization the most and other-orientedness the least, with survival security in between. Early life conditions and formative experiences shape cohort differences. Younger cohorts in general value self-actualization and survival security more than other cohorts. Cohort variations in other-orientedness reveal a flat trend. Between 1990 and 2012 there are period-specific variations in these values, though a simple upward or downward shift in the three dimensions is not found. Socioeconomic development and demographic shifts partially explain the period variations in survival security value dimension. Together, these results unravel the complex trends of socialization values for children as Chinese families adapt to a range of society-wide changes and generational successions, shedding new light on the effects of period, cohort, and social changes on childrearing norms.

Trends in the Burden of COPD Attributable to Ambient PM2.5 Exposure in China 1990-2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) is the leading risk factor for developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China. The present study aimed to investigate the trends in COPD mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure in China from 1990 to 2019. Data on COPD burden attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess COPD mortality from 1990 to 2019. The APC model was used to analyze the temporal trends in the rate of COPD mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure according to age, period, and cohort. Exposure to ambient PM2.5 contributed to 192.4 thousand deaths in 1990 and 263.6 thousand deaths in 2019. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) due to ambient PM2.5 exposure showed a gradual downward trend, the ASMR and ASDR in 2019 decreased to 16.6 per 100,000 with an EAPC of -2.82 (95% CI: -8.61 to 3.34) and 278.6 per 100,000 with an EAPC of -2.02 (95% CI: -7.85 to 4.19), compared to those in 1990, respectively. The relative risk (RR) of COPD increased with age in females, while in males, mortality significantly increased from the levels among those in the 60-64 age group to that among those in the 90-94 age group. In the period group, the RR of COPD in males remained above 1.0 from the 2000 to 2004 period, but it gradually decreased in females. The cohort effect showed an overall downward trend. Although the ASMR and ASDR are decreasing in Chinese patients with COPD, the number of deaths due to COPD is increasing. Ambient PM2.5 exposure is more harmful in males and older people above 60 years of age.

Trends in the global burden of oral cancer joint with attributable risk factors: Results from the global burden of disease study 2019

ObjectivesTo investigate the characteristics of risk factors for oral cancer and the disease burden they caused. Materials and methodsData from GBD2019, where the EAPC was calculated to understand mortality trends and the APC model was used for the analysis of age characteristics. ResultsOverall oral cancer mortality showed a promising downward trend [EAPC = −0.05 (−0.08 to −0.02)]. Oral cancer mortality attributable to tobacco chewing alone showed a significant upward trend [EAPC = 0.44 (0.36–0.52)]. Males are the majority of oral cancer deaths, while the disease burden of oral cancer in females could be largely attributable to chewing tobacco. The age of death attributable to each risk factor for oral cancer is concentrated between 45 and 74 years. Mortality for oral cancer caused by alcohol and smokeless tobacco was increasing in younger age groups (age < 45), and this trend was more pronounced in middle and middle-high SDI areas. The disease burden of oral cancer in high SDI regions was mainly attributed to alcohol consumption, while in middle and lower SDI regions it was mainly attributed to tobacco. ConclusionSmokeless tobacco proved a critical factor in the significant regional distribution of oral cancer. Oral cancer is on the increase in younger age groups. According to the characteristics of the distribution of risk factors, in traditionally high-incidence regions, such as India and Pakistan, oral cancer kept the highest ASDR, but was not experiencing the fastest growth rate. Additionally, it was oral cancer in middle SDI regions that needs more attention.

Effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence of frailty in Chinese older adults from 2002 to 2014.

BackgroundCurrently, longitudinal studies on frailty are in an early stage, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Only one study was conducted in Hong Kong to examine age-period-cohort effects on the prevalence of frailty among Chinese older adults.ObjectivesThis study aims to shed light on the prevalence trajectory of frailty among older adults in mainland China through the APC model and to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence trajectory.MethodsThe sample for this study was older adults aged 65–109 years old from the 2002 to 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Frailty status was measured by Rockwood FI. An age-period-cohort model was used to describe the effects of age, period, and cohort on the prevalence trajectory of frailty.ResultsThe prevalence of frailty among Chinese older adults changed significantly with age, period, and cohort. Furthermore, the effect of age was much stronger than the effect of period and cohort. The prevalence of frailty in the 101–103 and 104–106 age groups was 8.998 (95% CI 13.667–5.924) and 8.699 (95% CI 13.037–5.805) times higher than the in the 65–67 age group, respectively. The sensitivity analysis based on Fried's frailty phenotype showed similar results, confirming the robustness of our findings.ConclusionAll of the age effect reflecting the individual aging process, period effect reflecting change in the social environment, and birth cohort effect reflecting different generations could influence the prevalence of frailty at the population level. In contrast, the age effect was the main effect.

Global disease burden of COPD from 1990 to 2019 and prediction of future disease burden trend in China

ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess and predict the disease burden attributable to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a timely, comprehensive, and reliable manner, thereby mitigating the health hazards of COPD. Study design and methodsData on the disease burden owing to COPD from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Linear regression analysis was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized rates. Non-parametric tests were used for subgroup analysis. The Bayesian age-period-cohot (BAPC) model integrated nested Laplace approximations to predict the disease burden over the next 25 years. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Norpred APC model. ResultsGlobally, the COPD-related age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 216.48/100,000 in 1990 to 200.49/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of −0.33. But the number of new cases increased from 8,722,966 in 1990 to 16, 214, 828 in 2019. Trends in prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were the same as incidence. There were significant differences in disease burden between the genders and all age groups (P < 0.05) in China. The projections suggested that the COPD-related number of new cases and deaths in China would increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years. ConclusionsThe number of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs had all increased in China in the past and would continue to grow over the next 25 years. Therefore, measures should be taken to target risk factors and high-risk groups.