Anti-risk Ability Research Articles

Modeling network vulnerability of urban rail transit under cascading failures: A Coupled Map Lattices approach

In terms of urban rail transit network vulnerability, most studies have focused on the changes of network topology and functional characteristics under disruptive events while ignoring the impacts of cascading failures on network performance. In this study, an improved Coupled Map Lattices model is proposed to address the evolution process of cascading failures on rail transit network. Particularly, the model quantifies important factors of cascading failures integrating quantitative failure spreading mode, anti-risk ability of stations, and perturbation index. The rail transit network vulnerability is then modeled addressing numbers of failed stations, degree of affected passengers, and loss of passenger travel time as a result of cascading failures. The methodology is applied to the metro network of Shanghai, China. Results show that the propagation of network cascading failure depends on the station's anti-risk ability, geographical location, and type of adjacent stations. Stations located in the urban center area are more susceptible to failures of adjacent stations. Furthermore, higher affected passenger volume and station coupling strength would lead to more serious and rapid spreading of failures, and thus more vulnerable of the metro system. However, the anti-risk ability of stations could effectively resist the spread of failures in the early stage, and stations with higher topology redundancy demonstrate stronger anti-risk ability.

Techno-economic analysis of a novel full-chain blast furnace slag utilization system

As the main solid waste in the iron and steel industry, the waste heat recovery and comprehensive utilization of blast furnace slag had great significance for energy conservation and sustainable development. This paper proposed a novel full-chain blast furnace slag utilization system to solve the problem of waste heat recovery and high value-added production. Cascade recovery of slag waste heat was realized by using coal gasification reaction and the waste heat recovery ratio reached 73.61%. Meanwhile, two kinds of high value-added products of X-type zeolite and hydrotalcite-like compounds were synthesized simultaneously by using the beneficial components of blast furnace slag after fully recovering waste heat. Ultimately, the economic feasibility of the system was analyzed from two aspects of investment and profit. Under the reasonable economic assumptions, payback period of the project was 0.14 years, 10-year net present value was $ 326493.98 million, return on investment and internal rate of return were 737.74% and 312.82%, respectively. Through sensitivity analysis, the project could still be profitable in the production year under the condition that the sensitive factors of the system fluctuated within 40%. With great economic benefit and anti-risk ability, the novel full-chain blast furnace slag utilization system had potential in energy saving and emission reduction of iron and the iron and steel industry and the prospect of large-scale application.

Differences in the Values of the Senior Management Team, Antirisk Ability, and Innovation Performance by the Data-Driven Approach: Evidence from 841 Listed Companies in China

This study explores the mechanism of corporate antirisk capabilities on corporate innovation performance by using a data-driven method. The data are from China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2018. The value differences between the senior management team’s ability to resist risk and innovation performance are discussed. The results show that the antirisk ability of an enterprise will improve the efficiency of the utilization of enterprise resources and promote the formation of competitive advantage so that enterprises have a more stable internal and external environment, so as to improve the innovation performance of the enterprise. Risk capability improves corporate innovation performance; from the perspective of the value difference of the senior management team, a smaller value difference has a more significant effect on enhancing the enterprise’s antirisk ability and improving corporate innovation performance than a larger value difference. While improving their own antirisk capabilities, companies should further promote and improve the consistency of senior management team values, thereby improving corporate innovation performance.

Study on the maintenance scheduling model for compressor units of long-distance natural gas networks considering actual maintenance demands

Most maintenance strategies serving for the practical applications are formulated based on the single maintenance objective and do not consider the physical layout of compressor units in the complex pipeline networks and the actual maintenance demands, resulting in the over-maintenance or under-maintenance. The effective maintenance strategies for compressor units improve the unit reliability, economy, and maintenance efficiency. This work establishes a multi-level maintenance scheduling model composing of unit life prediction, unit-level maintenance decision, and system-level maintenance scheduling to guide the maintenance planning with cost and availability as the evaluation objectives. The maintenance strategies are developed by considering the series-parallel layout of compressor units, actual maintenance demands, and maintenance capability. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through 31 compressor unit networks in the Chinese west-east gas pipeline under the strategies of separating maintenance, combining maintenance, single maintenance team, and multiple maintenance teams, and compared it with the traditional methods. Compared with the traditional individual and simultaneous maintenance modes, the proposed method based on the optimal time window can reduce the maintenance cost by at least 27.7% and 25.1%, respectively. The weight factors and reliability have a great influence on the cost increase rate and unit availability. The multi-objective maintenance scheduling can improve the unit availability by 1.6% compared with the single availability optimization objective, and the corresponding maintenance cost rate is only increased by 0.68%. For the complex compressor unit networks, it is a better choice to consider the multi-objective maintenance planning under the single maintenance team. The model can improve the anti-risk ability of compressor units in long-distance natural gas networks and put forward maintenance suggestions from the perspective of safety, economy, and reliability.

Risk Analysis and Countermeasures of Small Catering Companies Under COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China at the beginning of 2020 has hit the catering companies hard. Many catering companies are facing the critical situation of large losses or even close down directly. Compared with large and medium-sized catering companies, the risk awareness and anti-risk ability of small catering companies are weaker. Their risk management is at a lower level and they do not pay much attention to risk prevention. By identifying and analyzing the risks faced by the small catering companies, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions with the hope to provide some reference for the risk management of the small catering companies and to strengthen its risk prevention ability.

Quantitative Analysis of the Profitability of China’s Commercial Banks Based on Factor Analysis

The profitability of a commercial bank is an important factor to measure its comprehensive development level. Taking the 2019 annual data of China’s 16 listed commercial banks as a research sample, the factor analysis method is used to empirically analyze the profitability of each bank, extract four public factors, and calculate the comprehensive score of each bank’s profitability. The research results show that the non-performing loan ratio and risk of joint-stock banks are higher, and the capital adequacy ratio is lower. The comprehensive profitability and anti-risk ability of state-owned banks are better than joint-stock banks, and their finances are more stable. This suggests that commercial banks should strengthen their risk control while increasing their profit margins.

Credit risk assessment in bank based on SMEs using PCA

In recent years, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have gradually become the backbone of China’s national economic development due to their strong innovation ability and high operational efficiency. However, such enterprises have poor anti risk ability in the early stage of development and need banks to lend to them. In order to help banks quickly and accurately evaluate the ability of small and medium-sized enterprises to determine the amount of loans, this paper proposes a comprehensive ability evaluation model based on PCA algorithm. Considering the strong impact of the new COVID-19 on SMEs in 2020, we introduce this sudden factor into the model to improve the adaptability of the model and help banks to accurately evaluate the enterprise capacity under the COVID-19.

Research on Information System Risk Analysis and Security Situation Assessment Method

Enterprise information system is the fundamental guarantee and important means of enterprise production and management, the security of the information system is the foundation of the stable and reliable operation of the information system. In order to improve the security and anti-risk ability of the information system, it analyzes the possible risks of the information system and gives an assessment of the security situation of the information system. When there is a risk, it will provide security situation assessment and early warning to avoid unnecessary losses and risks.

Changes of World Economic Pattern and New Development Opportunities for China in the Post Epidemic Period: From the Perspective of Marx’s Economic Crisis Theory

The global economic recession caused by the new epidemic situation will lead to great changes in the world economic pattern in the post epidemic period: The economy of Western developed capitalist countries has been severely damaged, and the long-term economic trend of major developing countries is uncertain. China has basically entered the track of economic recovery. The huge blow to the world economic system caused by this epidemic is closely related to the endogenous contradiction of capitalist economy. In the perspective of Marx’s political economy, economic crisis is an inherent phenomenon that capitalism cannot overcome. After the 1970s, under the baptism of new liberalism, economic globalization, financialization and other economic development trends, the inherent contradictions of capitalism were further intensified. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, which was a devastating exogenous impact, the major Western capitalist countries quickly fell into economic recession. In order to deal with the epidemic crisis, most Western developed capitalist countries have adopted expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, trying to restore market confidence and revive the economy through economic stimulus policies. This will have the following impact on the capitalist economy in the post epidemic period: The transition from Neo liberalism to regulatory capitalism, and the reshaping of the traditional pattern of economic globalization. The impact of the epidemic will not disappear in a short period, and countries that are not in a good position to deal with the epidemic situation may fall into a long-term economic recession. The epidemic is directly related to the economic recession, but not necessarily. Under the same impact of the epidemic, China can quickly control the epidemic by virtue of the superiority of the socialist system, and become the only major economy recovering at present. Marx’s theory of economic crisis can give a scientific explanation. In the post epidemic period, with the further exertion of the advantages of China’s socialist system, the recovery of the world economy will depend on China’s economy, which will bring new development opportunities to China: The continuously optimized business environment is conducive to absorbing more international risk aversion funds, the increasing economic anti-risk ability in the post epidemic period will boost China’s industrial upgrading, domestic consumption recovery ushers in bright development prospects, and digital economy will become a new economic growth point. In order to grasp these opportunities, China should take the following measures: Build a stable and orderly new financial format, ensure the stability of the industrial chain, strengthen the key technologies related to digital economy, stimulate supply side and demand side jointly to help the recovery of consumption, take multiple measures to maintain the stability of employment, and actively participate in the construction of a more effective global governance system.

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Novel Full-Chain Blast Furnace Slag Utilization System

As the main solid waste in the iron and steel industry, the waste heat recovery and comprehensive utilization of blast furnace slag had great significance for energy conservation and sustainable development. This paper proposed a novel full-chain blast furnace slag utilization system to solve the problem of waste heat recovery and high value-added production. Cascade recovery of slag waste heat was realized by using coal gasification reaction and the waste heat recovery ratio reached 73.61%. Meanwhile, two kinds of high value-added products of X-type zeolite and hydrotalcite-like compounds were synthesized simultaneously by using the beneficial components of blast furnace slag after fully recovering waste heat. Ultimately, the economic feasibility of the system was analyzed from two aspects of investment and profit. Under the reasonable economic assumptions, payback period of the project was 0.14 years, 10-year net present value was $ 326493.98 million, return on investment and internal rate of return were 737.74% and 312.82%, respectively. The sensitive factors of the system fluctuated within 40% through sensitivity analysis. The project could still be profitable in the production year. With great economic benefit and anti-risk ability, the novel full-chain blast furnace slag utilization system had potential in energy saving and emission reduction.

Risk Prevention, Control and Early Warning Model of Enterprises' Loan in the Yangtze River Delta

Yang, G.L., 2020. Risk prevention, control and early warning model of enterprises' loan in the Yangtze River Delta. In: Bai, X. and Zhou, H. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources, Environmental Protection, and Sustainable Development. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 115, pp. 614-617. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.This paper analyzes the market background of Marine Enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta in recent years. With the Sino-U.S. trade war going on, it is found that the anti risk ability of Marine Enterprises' loans is declining. Two risk prevention and early warning models are proposed in this paper. The first model, CRISP-DM model, aims at the self inspection within the enterprise. The second model, Cox model, is used by banks to evaluate the loan risk of offshore enterprises. These two risk prevention and early warning models can bring good reference value and practical significance.

BUBBLE PREDICTION AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EMERGING AND MATURE MARKETS

By analyzing the financial bubbles, it can be observed that every bubble burst causes financial turmoil and severe economic recession. The paper utilize the technical analysis indicators for providing warning conditions for predicting the stock market bubbles. The significance of the technical analysis indicators are that they can provide early warning system for financial crisis and can help in avoiding such problems. We applied the early warning technical indicators to the stock market of US, South Korea, Brazil, China, Germany, and Japan for the period of 1995 to 2018. We also made comparison of the bubble warning conditions of emerging markets and the mature markets. The standard bubble warning conditions include K value 90, Bias 10%, and RSI value of 90. Empirical results shows that mature market shows less degree of volatility and lowering the warning baseline can improve the accuracy of bubble predictions. Furthermore, results shows that mature markets bursting time is about 6 months while in emerging market, the time is reduced to only 3 months. These results also indicate that mature market has good antirisk ability compare to the emerging markets.

Application of Data Mining Method Based on Integrated Learning in Early Warning Research of SMEs’ Financial Crisis

Due to the reasons of irrational capital structure, non-standard management methods and imperfect internal control system, it directly leads to the weaker anti-risk ability of Chinese SMEs. When various environments deteriorate, it is difficult for SMEs to be able to cope with the resulting risks. Based on the characteristics of listed companies in SMEs and the particularity of the causes of financial crisis, this article focuses on cash flow indicators and selects initial financial indicators. The clustering center is initialized based on the optimized K-means++ clustering algorithm to obtain better clustering results, and the classification effect is evaluated using the contour map. The number of clusters is determined as three types and four types through multiple experiments and comparisons, which works better.

Roles of Motivation, Opportunity, Ability, and Trust in the Willingness of Farmers to Adopt Green Fertilization Techniques

Green fertilization technologies such as the formula fertilization technology and the water and fertilizer integration technology are important technologies to realize fertilizer reduction and replacement. To explore the willingness of farmers to adopt those technologies and its driving path, can help to improve soil quality and promote the sustainable development of agriculture. In this paper, trust is incorporated into the theoretical framework of motivation, opportunity, ability (MOA). Based on the questionnaire survey data of citrus farmers in Guangdong and Jiangxi provinces in China, the logical relationship of farmers’ willingness to adopt green fertilization technology is analyzed from four aspects of adoption motivation, adoption opportunity, ability (technical operation ability and ant risk ability), and trust by using a structural equation model. The results showed that adoption motivation, adoption opportunity, technical operation ability, and anti-risk ability had significant positive direct effects on adoption willingness, which were 0.610, 0.381, 0.491, and 0.297, respectively. Trust had an indirect effect, which was 0.191. From the results of cross-group analysis, it can be seen that farmers’ participation in organizations or contracts signed will strengthen the influence of adoption opportunity, technical operation ability and adoption motivation on adoption willingness. However, the influence of the anti-risk ability on adoption willingness was strengthened by the non-participation or non-contract peasant household groups.

Impacts of external shocks on the decisions of hog supply chains under liquidity constraints from the perspective of commercial credit.

Certain attributes of the hog industry increase the production risk in nodal enterprises of the hog supply chain, leading to high financing costs and eventually resulting in liquidity constraints. When the hog supply chain node enterprises are subjected to external shocks, on the basis of the commercial credit relationship in the supply chain, the entire supply chain generates liquidity risks and systemic risks. We analyze the input and output of the hog supply chain node enterprises under the constraint of liquidity, construct the mathematical model, discuss the dynamic differences of liquidity constraints in different situations, and measures the commercial credit risk and anti-risk ability of the pig supply chain node enterprises. If the external shock is less than a certain value, the current profits of the hog enterprise can entirely make up for the loss caused by external shocks, and the production of the firm will return to its state of equilibrium. If the external shock is large enough, liquidity constraints will seriously restrict the production input of the enterprise, which then leads to a deceleration of production input and may ultimately result in bankruptcy. We believe that the structure of the hog industry supply chain should be constantly adjusted to optimize the industrial upgrading and organizational form of the hog supply chain.

A comparison between coal-to-olefins and oil-based ethylene in China: An economic and environmental prospective

Recently, many coal-to-olefin (CTO) plants have started up in China. It is important for China to answer the following question: between coal-based ethylene and oil-based ethylene, which is the better choice? To provide a reference for policy makers and investors, this paper analyses the economic performance and the impact of future environment policy of both the CTO project and the oil-based ethylene project by a cost-benefit analysis. Quantitative analysis shows that the CTO project has a slight advantage over the oil-based ethylene project in a basic scenario when the crude oil price is above $70/bbl. However, international oil prices have a greater impact on the CTO project than the oil-based ethylene project. Thus, the CTO project has less anti-risk ability to the international oil market fluctuation than the oil-based ethylene project. What's more important is the environmental policy impact. After taking carbon trading costs and wastewater surcharge into account, the CTO project no longer has any advantage over the oil-based ethylene project. It can be seen in the foreseeable future that the CTO project will soon lose competitiveness. This indicates that the CTO project may not be consistent with sustainable development. These results suggest that from an environment perspective, policy makers and investors should be prudent about developing the CTO project.

Comparing the vulnerability of different coal industrial symbiosis networks under economic fluctuations

We establish a vulnerability analytical framework of CISN, and illustrate the impact path of economic fluctuation on CISN performance. Based on this, we propose an improved cascading failure model with directed weighted network, and design five network performance indicators (i.e., relative value of cascading failure, average path length, relative value of maximal connected sub-graphs, network efficiency, and structure entropy). Taking three coal eco-industrial parks in China as cases, we simulate and compare the impacts on CISN vulnerability (i.e., equality-based, dependent-based, and nested-based CISNs) of economic fluctuation. The results indicate that the interaction between economic fluctuation and network structure is the key factor in determining system vulnerability. Concerning overall vulnerability, equality-based CISN is highest, dependent-based CISN is next, and nested-based CISN is lowest. Regarding disturbance type, the changes in the five performance indicators of the three types of CISN are more intense under energy price shocks than with declining demand. Moreover, the cascading failure scale of equality-based CISN is greatest with declining demand, while the other two kinds of CISN’s is greatest under energy price shocks. Concerning disturbance intensity, equality-based CISN shows initial value sensitivity to economic fluctuation, and nested-based CISN has the strongest tolerances for economic fluctuation. From the network performance perspective, the performance of nested-based CISN is superior to that of dependent-based and equality-based CISNs. Due to longer average path length and lower network efficiency, the failure diffusion trend of equality-based CISN shows the curve of Type-S, and the diffusion rate is smooth and slow. Contrariwise, the initial diffusion rate of dependent-based CISN is the highest, indicating that the loss of system efficiency can somewhat improve the system’s anti-risk ability.

The Stability of Interbank Market Network: A Perspective on Contagion and Risk Sharing

As an important part of the financial system, interbank market provides banks with liquidity and credit lending and also is the main channel for risk contagion. In this paper, we test the existence of systematic risk contagion within the Chinese interbank market. By building the networks of the Chinese interbank market for each year and using the measure of mutual information, we quantitatively detect the changes of interbank market networks and observe that the correlations between banks become increasingly tighter in recent years. With the bilateral risk exposure among Chinese listed commercial banks, we find that the possibility of systemic risk contagion in Chinese interbank market is fairly small. But of great concern on each individual bank, the matter is different. Our simulation shows that the failures of three special banks (i.e., Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China) most likely lead to systemic risk contagion. Furthermore, we test the antirisk ability of the Chinese interbank market from the perspective of risk sharing and discover that the interbank market is stable when the loss scale is lower than forty percent of banks’ total core capital.

The prediction for London gold price: improved empirical mode decomposition

Gold has a strong anti-risk ability, and the price trend attracts much attention for most investors all over the world. This letter investigates and predicts the price of London gold by using the improved empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. The prediction results after decomposition approximate well to the real ones and suggest more accurate gold price trend that can help investors in choosing better strategies in the big data era. Moreover, the forecasting methods and techniques used in the study provide inspiring new thoughts for high-frequency data analysis in theory.

Study on China's Single-Star Hotel Business Situation and Development Strategy

In this study, we have a study on China's single-star hotel business situation and development strategy. Since the reform and opening up in the late 1970s, China hotel industry has been playing an increasingly important role, but improving the group level is still a long way to go, especially under the situation that the many single star class hotel living worrying. In particular in: aging facilities and equipment cause a vicious cycle of product quality of single-star hotels, continuous worsen of human resources and an increasing number of competitors, which make single-star hotels continue to weaken the anti-risk ability. At the same time, the increasingly high operating cost makes the single-star hotel profit margins shrinking. In our results, single-star hotels must make efforts in the following areas: Firstly, to focus on customer perceptions to increase their visibility and reputation; Secondly, to active the financing channels to raise their level of hardware; Thirdly, to strengthen human resource development to focus on cultivating their excellent staff.