Anticipatory Effects Research Articles

Parental thermal conditions affect the brain activity response to alarm cue in larval zebrafish.

Temperature is a crucial factor affecting the physiology of ectothermic animals, but exposure to elevated temperature during specific life stages and across generations may confer fish resilience through phenotypic plasticity. In this study, we investigate the effects of developmental and parental temperature on brain activity response to an olfactory cue in the larval zebrafish, Danio rerio. We exposed parents during reproduction and their offspring during development to control (28°C) or elevated temperature (30°C) and observed the response of the larval telencephalon to an alarm cue using live calcium imaging. Parental exposure to elevated temperature decreased the time till maximum brain activity response regardless of the offspring's developmental temperature, revealing that parental thermal conditions can affect the excitability of the offspring's neural circuitry. Furthermore, brain activity duration was affected by the interaction between parental and offspring thermal conditions, where longer brain activity duration was seen when either parents or offspring were exposed to elevated temperature. Conversely, we found shorter brain activity duration when the offspring were exposed to the same temperature as their parents, in both control and elevated temperature. This could represent an anticipatory parental effect influencing the offspring's brain response to match the parental environment, or an early developmental effect occurring within a susceptible short time window post-fertilization. Overall, our results suggest that warming can alter processes involved in brain transmission and show that parental conditions could aid in the preparation of their offspring to respond to olfactory stimuli in a warming environment.

Looks at what isn't there: eye movements on a blank screen when processing negation in a first and a second language.

Is negation more difficult to process than affirmation? If it is, does processing negation in a second language (L2) compound the difficulty compared to the first language (L1)? This article addresses the issues of difficulties in processing different types of negation in the L1 and L2 by looking at the differences in the ways in which comprehenders anticipate upcoming visual information during sentence processing. Using a blank-screen paradigm, we recorded eye fixations of Croatian native speakers and Croatian learners of English while they were anticipating matching or mismatching pictures to sentences with various types of negation in L1 (Croatian) and L2 (English). Using a between-group design, we manipulated sentence polarity (affirmative vs. negative), negation type (sentential vs. negative quantifier) within both L1 Croatian and L2 English so that we could observe potential anticipation effects varying as a function of the two predictors. In line with previous studies, affirmation in the L1 was easier to process than negation, and participants were able to anticipate sentence-picture matches in both the L1 and the L2 group. In contrast with our prediction, anticipatory looks did not significantly vary across negation types in Croatian based on the number of structural cues. In L2 English, learners exhibited prediction ability across negation types. These findings go against the view that comprehension in L2 comes with a reduced ability to generate expectations, and they highlight the robustness of mental simulations in both L1 and L2 negation processing.

Does the belt and road initiative boost Chinese automobile exports? A staggered adoption approach

ABSTRACT We examine whether China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative assisted its export performance in the final automobile sector, a market that has been challenging for the Chinese economy. We use the recent econometric technique of heterogeneity robust difference-in-difference estimators for staggered timing. We also control anticipation effects and potential BRI selection endogeneity using IVs and matching estimation. Using data from 2005 to 2019, our estimates find that China’s final automobile exports to the BRI partner destination countries after these countries became signatories almost doubled relative to that of the export to non-BRI partner destinations, and the effect for net-exports is an increase of about 59%. Sub-sample analyses indicate that the positive effect is stronger for China’s export to lower-income partners compared to its exports to relatively higher-income destinations, though the effects in the automobile industry is more balanced between high-income and low-income destinations, compared to overall exports where BRI’s impact. The results are robust across alternate methods and specifications.

On the Effect of Anticipation on Reading Times

Abstract Over the past two decades, numerous studies have demonstrated how less-predictable (i.e., higher surprisal) words take more time to read. In general, these studies have implicitly assumed the reading process is purely responsive: Readers observe a new word and allocate time to process it as required. We argue that prior results are also compatible with a reading process that is at least partially anticipatory: Readers could make predictions about a future word and allocate time to process it based on their expectation. In this work, we operationalize this anticipation as a word’s contextual entropy. We assess the effect of anticipation on reading by comparing how well surprisal and contextual entropy predict reading times on four naturalistic reading datasets: two self-paced and two eye-tracking. Experimentally, across datasets and analyses, we find substantial evidence for effects of contextual entropy over surprisal on a word’s reading time (RT): In fact, entropy is sometimes better than surprisal in predicting a word’s RT. Spillover effects, however, are generally not captured by entropy, but only by surprisal. Further, we hypothesize four cognitive mechanisms through which contextual entropy could impact RTs—three of which we are able to design experiments to analyze. Overall, our results support a view of reading that is not just responsive, but also anticipatory.1

Proactive personality and international student mobility: Patterns of self-selection and development

Proactive personality, i.e., individuals' disposition to take personal initiative and to initiate change, is a personality characteristic that is related to many favorable outcomes in the work domain and beyond. Yet, the conditions that promote its development amongst young adults have barely been researched. As international student mobility (ISM) has become an essential part of higher education in many countries, we assessed how proactive personality related to ISM experiences by self-selection, socialization and anticipation effects. We further explored if behavioural exploration served as a mediator of ISM socialization effects. We carried out a longitudinal study (N = 2163) with two measurement occasions and three study groups, i.e., control students who stayed at home, present sojourners who engaged in ISM and a waiting group of future sojourners. Latent change analyses indicated that all sojourners showed higher levels of proactive personality than control students before their departure abroad. Moreover, present sojourners increased in proactive personality as compared to the other two groups. This effect could partly be explained by sojourners' more frequent exploration of new behaviours. There was no indication that future sojourns affected proactivity development by anticipation effects. Implications of these findings for the understanding of adaptive personality development are discussed.

Bifurcation Analysis of the Macroscopic Traffic Flow Model Based on Driver’s Anticipation and Traffic Jerk Effect

Bifurcation Analysis of the Macroscopic Traffic Flow Model Based on Driver’s Anticipation and Traffic Jerk Effect

The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment

How does the expectation that a child will receive government benefits in adulthood affect parental investments in the child’s human capital? Most parents whose children receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. We present randomly selected families with the predicted likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. Reducing parents’ expectations that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children’s human capital. This zero effect is precisely estimated. Likely explanations include parents working more themselves, nonfinancial goals influencing investment, and families facing investment constraints. (JEL G52, I26, I38, J13, J24, J31)

Participation, anticipation effects and impact perceptions of two collective incentive-based conservation interventions in Ucayali, Peru

This study contributes to the relatively scarce literature evaluating household-level outcomes of collective agreements. We examine participation in and anticipation effects of two collective, incentive-based initiatives in Ucayali, Peru. The first initiative is a local REDD+ project, the second is Peru's National Forest Conservation Program (NFCP). Both initiatives were evaluated at an early stage of implementation, thus any effects are characterized as anticipation effects. We first examine the determinants of participation in the initiatives and find that household participation is negatively associated with agricultural income and positively associated with market access and previous experiences with external initiatives. Next, we use quasi-experimental methods and self-reflexive evaluations to examine impacts on land use and livelihoods. The results show no evidence of anticipation effects on income or land use. Self-reflexive evaluations indicate, however, that a total of 82% of the NFCP participating households perceive a positive effect on wellbeing, while only 39% of participants in REDD+ perceive a positive effect. The differences in perceptions of the two initiatives is attributed to design and implementation factors, including delayed payments, lack of transparency, and limited local input. The study demonstrates the value of self-reflexive evaluations for identifying intangible effects on wellbeing of conservation initiatives.

Investor behavior around targeted liquidity announcements

We exploit announcements related to targeted longer-term financing operations (TLTROs) as exogenous shocks in investor perceptions to test recent theories on bank funding liquidity (Ahnert et al., 2019; Liu, 2015). We find that banks with high derivative holdings and more exposed to sovereign credit risk respond better to the announcements, consistent with the view that lower funding costs benefit banks with higher asset encumbrance and located in more vulnerable Eurozone countries. The TLTRO announcements also elicit reductions in short positions on bank stocks relative to stocks of non-financial corporations without impairing their market liquidity. Robustness tests rule out that our results are driven by confounding events and anticipation effects. Placebo tests confirm that the TLTRO announcements are driving the estimated price reactions and changes in short positions.

Jamming transition in two-lane lattice model integrating the deception attacks on influx during the lane-changing process under vehicle to everything environment

In the information area of actual traffic, the deception attack can affect the lane-changing rate of influx during the lane-changing process on two lanes operating in a vehicle to everything environment. To counteract the deception attack, a novel lattice model integrating the driver anticipation effect (DAE) will be constructed based on the lane-changing influx rate caused by the deception attack on two lanes. The influence of the lane-changing rate of deceitful influx on traffic stability is investigated through theoretical analysis, and the corresponding modified Korteweg De Vries equation is derived. Using numerical simulation, the evolution of density waves and hysteresis loop phenomena caused by the lane-changing rate of deceitful influx are studied. Due to the rate at which deceitful influx changes lanes, the deception attack on influx will also have a significant impact on the energy consumption of the transportation system.

Accuracy and Reproducibility of Cytology Triage in a HPV-Based Primary Screening Setting: A Revision of 384 Pap Tests

Introduction: After the transition toward the HPV-based screening protocol, which has led to an increase in sensitivity, and in order to bring the specificity back to acceptable values, cytology underwent a change of approach, becoming a triage test. For these reasons, in the Tuscany region (after the recommendations of the GISCi document), it was decided to reduce, as much as possible, the use of ASC-US category in cytology triage, classifying these morphological cases as negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancies (NILM) or LSIL, basing on the grade of nuclear atypia. So, in Italy, in a cytology triage context (HPV primary screening), a modified Bethesda system (TBS) is currently used. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the review activity of 384 cytology triage cases and of the cervical cancer screening indicators (sensitivity and specificity for CIN2+ lesions) using the TBS 2014 or the modified TBS. Materials and Methods: 384 HPV positive cases at one-year recall (192 with a cytology result of NILM both at baseline and at one-year recall; 192 with a cytology result of NILM at baseline but abnormal at one-year recall), all with a histologically confirmed result (128 CIN2+, 256 ≤ CIN1), were selected, and their baseline Pap tests were reviewed in blind mode by 5 expert cytologists. Results: The cytological results of NILM were confirmed for 92.5% and 83.8% of cases using TBS 2014 or modified TBS, respectively. 20/128 CIN2+ cases could have been reported at the baseline cytology triage, causing an anticipatory effect and an improvement in sensitivity of the screening protocol at baseline (+15.6%). Using TBS 2014, the number of false positives more than tripled with respect to the modified TBS 2014, with a significant increase in unnecessary colposcopies (+11.4%). Conclusion: This work demonstrated that a greater expertise of cytologists, acquired during the following 3 years of experience with cytological triage, and a strong IQC system could lead to the identification of a significant number of lesions reported to baseline rather than at one-year recall (diagnostic anticipation).

Brains over beauty: A preregistered test of the effects of objectification on women's cognitive performance.

The present study was a preregistered, well-powered experimental test of findings related to the effect of state self-objectification and anticipation of the sexualized male gaze on women's cognitive performance. College women (n = 407) performed a working memory task in one of three randomly assigned conditions. In the experimental conditions (self-objectification and male gaze), women completed the task while being video recorded from the neck down. In the male gaze condition, participants were told their videos would later be evaluated by men as part of a separate dating study. Women in the control condition were not video recorded. Results indicated women experienced a moderate increase in state self-objectification in both experimental conditions. However, compared to the control condition, women in the experimental conditions did not show reduced performance on the working memory task (in either latency or accuracy), decreases in body satisfaction, or increases in negative mood. Across conditions, state self-objectification was not associated with accuracy or latency on the working memory task. Mixed findings concerning objectification's effect on cognitive performance may be attributed to variability in experimental manipulations and dependent variables employed in this area of research.

Smart or smash? The effect of financial sanctions on trade in goods and services

AbstractWe examine the extent to which financial sanctions imposed by Germany through its European Union and United Nations commitments cause collateral damage on Germany's trade in goods and services. Financial sanctions reduce Germany's inflows and outflows of financial assets, as well as imports and exports of goods and services. The relative effects on trade in goods and services are weaker than on financial assets, about half as large in the case of goods and two‐thirds as large in the case of services. The effect on trade in goods is entirely due to episodes where financial sanctions are accompanied by export restrictions of specific goods. In the case of services trade, only exports are affected by financial sanctions once export restrictions are considered. The primary channel through which sanctions affect the three types of cross‐border flows is the extensive margin. Anticipation effects are quite strong for financial assets and weak for services and goods.

Reduced duration of stuttering-like disfluencies and consistent anticipatory slowing during an adaptation task.

The adaptation effect in stuttering, traditionally described as the reduction of stuttering moments over repeated readings, provides a context to investigate fluency facilitation as well as a relatively controlled means of comparing fluent speech in the immediate vicinity of words that were stuttered versus fluently produced. Acoustic studies have documented decreased duration of fluent speech during adaptation but rarely address changes in disfluencies or the speech preceding or following the disfluencies. This study addresses this gap in the research by documenting frequency and duration changes in both fluent and stuttered syllables. Fifteen people who stutter read passages aloud five times in succession. Frequency and duration of fluent syllables, pauses, stuttering-like disfluencies (SLDs) and other disfluencies (ODs) were compared across the five readings. In addition, durations for syllables before and after pauses and SLDs were compared to determine if there were anticipation or carryover effects of SLDs on surrounding syllables. Durations measured for more than 22000 fluent syllables, 1531 pauses, 128 ODs and 1752 SLDs. For most of the 15 participants, significant decreases in both frequency and duration of SLDs over the five readings were observed. In addition, lengthening of fluent syllables immediately preceding the disfluent syllables was observed: this pre-SLD lengthening did not change over the five readings. Decreased duration of SLDs across readings supports the motor practice hypothesis, which assumes that successive reading of the same text increases the efficiency of the speech motor plans resulting in less stuttering and decreased durations of the stuttering that persists. Pre-SLD lengthening merits further study, because it informs our knowledge of the time course of stuttered events and may be associated with conscious or unconscious anticipation of upcoming SLDs that does not decrease with motor practice. What is already known on this subject The frequency of stuttering-like disfluencies (SLDs) can be reduced using a variety of fluency-enhancing strategies. For example, the adaptation effect, in which a reduction of stuttered events occurs over repeated readings of the same material, has been widely studied. Previous studies have shown that durations of fluent syllables decrease during adaptation, supporting the hypothesis that repeated practice of the motor plan leads to increased fluency. However, temporal changes in disfluent syllables and syllables preceding and following SLDs have rarely been studied, so our understanding of the effect of motor practice on stuttering reduction is incomplete. What this study adds This study has two significant findings. First, stuttered disfluencies that persisted after the initial reading of the adaptation task tended to become shorter in duration. Fluently produced syllables and those that were stuttered, both of which are speech events related to motor control of articulators, were affected in a similar manner by the motor practice associated with adaptation. Second, lengthening of fluent syllables immediately preceding stuttered syllables was observed. This pre-stuttering lengthening, however, did not decrease in duration over the five readings: the mechanism that drives this anticipatory behaviour is not affected by repeated practice. What are the clinical implications of this work? People who stutter have neural differences that lead to speech motor planning and/or execution that is less efficient than that of typical speakers. The finding that stuttering is reduced and that persisting SLDs become shorter in duration over repeated readings provides evidence that motor practice can influence the manifestation of stuttering by temporarily making those specific motor plans more efficient. This may inform treatments for stuttering. The observation that fluent syllables immediately before SLDs were lengthened, and that this lengthening was not influenced by repeated practice, extends our understanding of the time course of stuttering events and may be useful in understanding anticipation and listener reactions to stuttering.

Effects of intergovernmental revenue on local government draw on fiscal reserves: evidence from COVID-19 fiscal stress

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the effects of receipt and anticipation of intergovernmental revenues on local governments draw on accumulated fiscal reserves to cushion the impacts of COVID-19-related fiscal stress. Several studies have been conducted on determinants of fiscal reserves accumulation. However, little is known about the determinants of government draw on fiscal reserves, beyond revenue shortfall, in times of fiscal stress. Dwelling on the premise that government’s draw on fiscal reserves is influenced by factors beyond revenue shortfall and controlling for the effects of revenue shortfalls and other factors, we analysed local government survey data to determine the effects of intergovernmental revenue on government draw on fiscal reserves. Results show that draw on fiscal reserves is significantly constrained by percent of FY 2020 revenue received from federal and state governments, but significantly and positively influenced by revenue losses and percent of FY 2021 revenue anticipated from federal government.

Anticipatory effects on side-step cutting biomechanics in Women’s Australian Football League players

ObjectivesReactive side-step cutting manoeuvres are linked to anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries in Women’s Australian Football League (AFLW) matches. We explored knee joint moments and ground reaction forces (GRFs) in...

Acute mental benefits of aquatic exercises in middle-aged women

ABSTRACTBackground and aims: Aquatic exercises are popular leisure activities worldwide, primarily among women. These activities are especially beneficial for aging people and individuals having difficulties performing land-based exercises. Their physical health benefits have already been documented in the academic literature, but research on their mental health effects is still non-existent. However, leisure exercises promoting mental health are advantageous in a fast-paced and often stressful world. Therefore, in this in-situ (natural life setting) field study, we examined the acute mental benefits of aquatic exercises in 30 voluntary consenting women having a mean age of 57.57 (SD = 12.67) years. Methods: Using a within-participants research design, the subjectively perceived feeling states and felt arousal, along with positive and negative affect, were recorded before and after exercise. Moreover, the personal expectancies regarding the expected feelings after exercise were assessed before the workout to determine the influence of anticipation effects. Results: The findings revealed that core affect and positive affect improved substantially from before to after exercise (p < .001), as confirmed by the large effect sizes (Cohen’s d > 0.80). Negative affect decreased nonsignificantly (p = .062), but it was already low before exercise. Although expectancy scores were high before the exercise class, they did not correlate (p > .05) with the dependent measures’ magnitude of changes (pre-class – post-class scores). Conclusions: These findings suggest that women who participate in an aquatic exercise class report experiencing significant positive changes in their feelings, demonstrating this popular exercise’s acute mental health benefits. Although further controlled research is needed in this area, the current results have promising implications for middle-aged women’s mental health preservation and promotion.

Anticipating the honeymoon: Event study estimation of new stadium effects in Major League Baseball using the imputation method

AbstractThis paper estimates the impact of new stadiums on attendance and revenues of Major League Baseball teams between 1970 and 2019. Recent studies reveal that two‐way fixed effects (TWFE) models may produce biased estimates, proposing an “imputation” method instead. This paper uses the imputation method to generate a counterfactual estimate, based on untreated observations: the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) equals the difference between actual and counterfactual estimates. The analysis shows that there were significant anticipation effects associated with new stadiums, up to three seasons before opening. It suggests previous estimates may significantly understate new stadium revenue gains.

The domain-variant indirect association between electrophysiological response to reward and ADHD presentations is moderated by dopaminergic polymorphisms

BackgroundUnderstanding the etiopathogenesis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) may necessitate decomposition of the heterogeneous clinical phenotype into more homogeneous intermediate phenotypes. Reinforcement sensitivity is a promising candidate, but the exact nature of the ADHD-reward relation – including how, for whom, and to which ADHD dimensions atypicalities in reward processing are relevant – is equivocal. MethodsAims were to examine, in a carefully phenotyped sample of adolescents (N = 305; Mage = 15.30 years, SD = 1.07; 39.7% girls), whether functional dopaminergic polymorphisms implicated in both reward processing and ADHD (1) are differentially associated with event-related potentials (ERPs) of reward anticipation at distinct levels of ADHD risk (nno risk = 174, nat-risk = 131, ndiagnosed = 83); and (2) moderate the indirect effect of dispositional affectivity on the association between ERPs and ADHD domains. ResultsIn adolescents at-risk for or with ADHD, carrying a hypodopaminergic allele was associated with enhanced ERPs of attention allocation to cue and attenuated ERPs of anticipatory attention to feedback. No associations were observed in adolescents not at-risk for or without ADHD. Controlling for age and sex, both the negative indirect effect of positive affectivity (PA) on the association between ERPs and inattention and the positive indirect effect of PA on the association between ERPs and hyperactivity/impulsivity were supported only for those with high activity dopamine transporter (DAT) alleles. ConclusionsReward and affective processing are promising intermediate phenotypes relevant to disentangling ADHD developmental pathways. Consistent with developmental multifinality, through the successive effects of reward anticipation and positive affectivity, functional dopaminergic variants may confer protection against inattention or risk for hyperactivity/impulsivity.

“I did not see that coming”: A latent variable structural equation model for understanding the effect of road predictability on crashes along horizontal curves

Driver anticipation plays a crucial role in crashes along horizontal curves. Anticipation is related to road predictability and can be influenced by roadway geometric design. Therefore, it is essential to understand which geometric design elements can influence anticipation and cause the road to be (un)predictable. This exercise, however, is not straightforward because anticipation is individual-specific whereas road geometric design is location-specific; anticipation is latent and measuring it may not be trivial; anticipation may have several stages from the preceding tangent until the midst of the curve; and not all drivers anticipate in the same way and thus there may well be unobserved heterogeneity in the effect of anticipation on crash risk.Despite methodological advancements in crash risk modelling, there is no econometric model that can adequately explain the above complexities. This study aims to fill this gap by developing an econometric model with a new latent variable, named ‘predictability’ that is measured by individual-specific driving behaviour indicators and predicted by location-specific road geometric factors. The model is specified with random parameters to account for unobserved heterogeneity and is empirically tested by a unique dataset including detailed geometric design and driver behaviour data obtained for 156 curves in the Netherlands. Results indicate that higher exposure and uphill vertical grade are associated with increased likelihood of vehicle crashes along horizontal curves, whereas adequate superelevation and higher predictability are associated with decreased likelihood of those crashes. Pavement friction influences this likelihood too but it has varied effects. Road predictability is influenced by the differences in angle of horizontal curves, vertical grades, and width of consecutive road segments.