Anthropogenic Warming Research Articles

Regional impacts of solar radiation modification on surface temperature and precipitation in Mainland Southeast Asia and the adjacent oceans.

Solar radiation modification (SRM) has been proposed to temporarily reduce anthropogenic warming. This study presents an assessment of the regional impacts of SRM via solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on temperature and precipitation over 0°-30° N and 90° E-110° E, covering Mainland Southeast Asia and adjacent oceans. Using data from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6), we examine regional impacts of SRM using three SRM experiments: (1) G6Sulfur, which reduces radiative forcing from the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario to the moderate-emission SSP2-4.5 scenario by injecting sulfate aerosols; (2) G6Solar, which similarly reduces radiative forcing from the high-emission to moderate-emission scenarios but by uniformly reducing the solar constant; and (3) G1ext, which reduces radiative forcing from a quadrupled carbon dioxide concentration to pre-industrial levels by uniform solar constant reduction. Our findings show that higher greenhouse gas emissions increase overall precipitation, along with tendencies to have extreme rainfall events and more dry episodes in between. While SRM can partially cool down the surface temperature warming caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, its effects on precipitation are complex: Solar dimming in G6Solar and G1ext tends to reduce overall precipitation, and tropical sulfate injection in G6Sulfur could lead to further drying in the tropics because of the stratospheric warming associated with the injected aerosols. Different SRM strategies might result in different responses on precipitation.

The role of mesoscale-driven connectivity patterns in coral recovery around Moorea and Tahiti, French Polynesia

Coral reefs are declining due to anthropogenic warming. Nonetheless, some have recovered quickly from repeated bleaching events. Coral recovery depends on adaptation capabilities, fishing pressure, overall number of stressors, reef conditions before the event, and degree of connectivity. Coral reefs that are connected to many others can receive viable larvae and regain coverage faster. Around Moorea and Tahiti, within the Society Islands of French Polynesia, coral cover has regained its previous levels rapidly, despite several mass bleaching events over the past three decades. Here it is explored whether the connectivity with distant reefs may support such recovery by modeling the transport of coral larvae around the islands over 28 years. Ocean currents enable connectivity with the Tuamotu Islands, ~ 250 km to the northeast, that act as sources to Moorea and Tahiti for pelagic larval durations of three weeks or longer. The circulation around Moorea and Tahiti is very dynamic; mesoscale eddies can also halt the connectivity with the Tuamotu Islands and sporadically transport larvae from reefs to the west and southeast instead. With many undisturbed coral reefs within a 300 km radius and strong mesoscale variability, a dynamic, long-range connectivity may explain the recovery of reefs around Moorea and Tahiti.

Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 ce

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1–3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300–2004 ce (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 ce as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

Increased projected changes in quasi-resonant amplification and persistent summer weather extremes in the latest multimodel climate projections

High-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves with zonal wave numbers 6–8 associated with the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) have been linked to persistent summer extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. QRA is not well-resolved in current generation climate models, therefore, necessitating an alternative approach to assessing their behavior. Using a previously-developed fingerprint-based semi-empirical approach, we project future occurrence of QRA events based on a QRA index derived from the zonally averaged surface temperature field, comparing results from CMIP 5 and 6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). There is a general agreement among models, with most simulations projecting substantial increase in QRA index. Larger increases are found among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 (42 models, 46 realizations), with 85% of models displaying a positive trend, as compared with 60% of CMIP5-RCP8.5 (33 models, 75 realizations), with a reduced spread among CMIP6-SSP5-8.5 models. CMIP6-SSP3-7.0 (23 models, 26 realizations) simulations display qualitatively similar behavior to CMIP6-SSP5-8.5, indicating a substantial increase in QRA events under business-as-usual emissions scenarios, and the results hold regardless of the increase in climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Projected aerosol reductions in CMIP6-SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF (5 models, 16 realizations) lead to halting effect in QRA index and Arctic Amplification during the 1st half of the twenty-first century. Our analysis suggests that anthropogenic warming will likely lead to an even more substantial increase in QRA events (and associated summer weather extremes) than indicated by past analyses.

Pengenalan Satwa Papua dan Status Konservasinya melalui Sosialisasi di Sekolah SMA Bintuni Papua Barat

Papua has a high level of species diversity and endemism. This community service activity (PKM) is motivated by the decreasing of Papua's biodiversity due to anthropogenic activities and global warming, so it is necessary to make efforts to increase public awareness, especially among the children about the concept of protection, management, and use wisely and sustainably for Papua's diversity. Therefore, we carried out socialization about the Papuan animals and their conservation status to students at SMA Negeri 1 and SMA YPPK St. Arnoldus Jansen in Bintuni Bay District, West Papua Province on 10-11 December 2021. Socialization activities involve lectures, questions, and answers, filling out questionnaires, and giving rewards. The results showed that 61.54% of participants did not know the conservation status of animals in Papua based on Indonesian and international regulations. In addition, as many as 87.18% of participants stated that some animals in Papua were sold in the market and participants also consumed some of these animals. However, the participants' desire to protect Papua's animals is quite high (94.87%).

Enhanced precipitation responses over the Tibetan Plateau following future Tambora-size volcanic eruption

Hydroclimate over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) notably influences the eco-environment of the Northern Hemisphere. Given its high elevation and complex topography, the climate in the TP shows a high sensitivity to anthropogenic warming and volcanic-induced cooling. The mechanism by which a future volcanic or similar radiative perturbation affects precipitation in the TP under an anthropogenic warming climate must be addressed not only to enable regional adaptation but deepen our understanding of how a climate system evolves under such a dual force. Here, based on the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 and ensemble simulations under pre-industrial and RCP8.5 scenarios, we showed that a Tambora-sized volcanic perturbation led to severe rainfall reduction over the south TP in the following summer (June–August). Evaporation response accounted for a minor and relatively constant share of precipitation reduction following the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, whereas dynamic processes triggered an El Niño-like response in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which suppressed the Walker and Hadley circulation and contributed to drying anomalies. Global warming renders the post-Tambora hydroclimate responses with 30% higher severity as a result of the increased climatological moisture content and intensified El Niño response, which enhanced hydroclimate sensitivity and attenuated monsoon circulation. The results illustrate the amplification effect of global warming on the plateau's hydroclimate responses to external forcings, which may add another layer of uncertainty on climate adaptation in this already complex region.

Tropical and mid-latitude causal drivers of the eastern Mediterranean Etesians during boreal summer

During boreal summer, large scale subsidence and a persistent northerly flow, known as the Etesians, characterize the tropospheric circulation over the eastern Mediterranean. The Etesians bring clear skies and alleviate the impact of heat waves over the region. The intraseasonal variability of the Etesians and subsidence over the eastern Mediterranean has been thought to be influenced by the South Asian monsoon and atmospheric processes over the North Atlantic. Here, we employ causal effect networks and causal maps, obtained by applying the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) causal discovery algorithm, to identify causal precursors of Etesians. We find that both wave train activity over the North Atlantic/North American region and convective activity over South Asia associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are causally related to the Etesians at 3-day time scale. Thus, intraseasonal ISM variability affects the eastern Mediterranean circulation, though its influence is conveyed via a Middle East ridge. On longer weekly time scale, the mid-latitude influence weakens, while the influence of the tropical convective activity via the Middle East ridge remains stable. Moreover, the heat low over the Arabian Peninsula, a feature strongly responsible for the development of the Etesians, is caused by a stronger Middle East ridge and not by North Atlantic wave activity. Finally, we discuss potential implication for circulation changes in the eastern Mediterranean due to anthropogenic global warming.

Role of the Labrador Current in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response to greenhouse warming

Anthropogenic warming is projected to enhance Arctic freshwater exportation into the Labrador Sea. This extra freshwater may weaken deep convection and contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decline. Here, by analyzing an unprecedented high-resolution climate model simulation for the 21st century, we show that the Labrador Current strongly restricts the lateral spread of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean into the open ocean such that the freshwater input has a limited role in weakening the overturning circulation. In contrast, in the absence of a strong Labrador Current in a climate model with lower resolution, the extra freshwater is allowed to spread into the interior region and eventually shut down deep convection in the Labrador Sea. Given that the Labrador Sea overturning makes a significant contribution to the AMOC in many climate models, our results suggest that the AMOC decline during the 21st century could be overestimated in these models due to the poorly resolved Labrador Current.

Field evaluation and characterization of a novel biostimulant for broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) cultivation under drought and salt stress which increases antioxidant, glucosinolate and phytohormone content

Anthropogenic global warming is affecting crop yield and thus compromising food security. Drought and salinization of the irrigation water or soil are increasingly frequent in most arable land, specifically in arid and semiarid areas such as the Mediterranean basin. Many crops have been displaced or their yield has plummeted in recent years, causing food shortages and price increases. In a context of global population growth and reduction in the availability of natural resources used in agriculture, finding novel tools that help farmers to maintain yield in an increasingly arid and saline scenario is of pivotal importance. This is particularly important in organic agriculture, where the number of available tools is very limited. Biostimulants are substances or microorganisms of natural origin whose function is to stimulate plant processes related to nutrient absorption, nutrient use efficiency, tolerance to abiotic stress or the quality of the agricultural products obtained. In the present work, we have evaluated, in field, the agronomic effectiveness of a novel biostimulant formulation in a cruciferous crop of great interest in the Mediterranean basin (broccoli) under control conditions, water and salt stress. Our research has shown that our product had a positive effect on broccoli production and in delaying flowering time. We have also found that the application of our biostimulant increased enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidant defense under drought conditions. Similarly, when exposed to salinity, the biostimulant increased the concentration of different phytohormones and glucosinolates. Taken together, our biostimulant increases the tolerance of broccoli to salt stress and water limitation by increasing the antioxidant response, the level of glucosinolates and eliciting the hormonal response.

2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability

2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss of aerosol induced cooling. Here we use a recent Green’s function-based method to quantify the influence of sea surface temperature patterns on the 2023 global temperature anomaly, and compare them to previous record warm years. We show that the strong deviation from recent warming trends is consistent with previously observed sea surface temperature influences, and regional forcing. This indicates that internal variability was a strong contributor to the exceptional 2023 temperature evolution, in combination with steady anthropogenic global warming.

Observed flash drought to persist in future over southern Africa

Southern Africa has experienced multiple occurrences of drought episodes, which is projected to persist in the future, considering all climate scenarios. Despite the documented change in a meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought situation in the region, few studies are yet to explore the changes in flash drought (hereafter; FD), which is characterized by a rapid reduction in root-zone soil moisture and more substantial intensification in few days to weeks. Here, we analyze the observed FD and related underlying drivers during the past 34 years. Also, we estimate the future changes in FD using the severity-duration magnitude matrix under the middle of the road (SSP2-4.5) and business as usual (SSP5-8.5), scenario. Lastly, the study investigates the role of anthropogenic warming using the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) approach and possible bivariate return periods of FD events. Our results demonstrate that the region has experienced multiple occurrences up to 72 pentads from 1980 to 2014. Underlying mechanisms revealed the compounding influence of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), and precipitation deficit that have a significant impact on the abrupt onset and rapid intensification of FD events and other hot extremes over the SAF region. Under a high emission scenario, the region will experience FD duration lasting for 30 days with >40 % severity projected to impact the region. Anthropogenic climate change and land use and land cover changes remain the most dominant drivers altering the FD events over the SAF region. The return period of FD events under the SSP5-8.5 scenario shows that the SAF region will witness multiple FD events of up to 80 pentads in the far future. These findings reinforce the need to limit the emission of greenhouse gases. Sustained warming of the climate will exacerbate the extreme events and other compounding factors, thus affecting the livelihoods of humans and life-supporting strata.

Working towards a Green Economy – Meaning, Measures, Policies & Implementation

The transition towards a Green Economy is a critical human response to the imminent threat of climate change, driven primarily by anthropogenic global warming. This paper explores the multifaceted aspects of Green Economy, encompassing sustainable development and economic growth that mitigates environmental degradation. The concept is grounded in the UNEP definition of a Green Economy, emphasizing improved human well-being and social equity while reducing environmental risks. Key areas include renewable energy, sustainable transport, green building, water and waste management, and land management. Measurement of progress towards a Green Economy is examined through various indices like the Global Green Economy Index (GGEI) and methodologies proposed by OECD. The challenges faced by developing countries in monitoring and achieving Green Growth are discussed, highlighting the need for enhanced statistical capacities and integrated policy frameworks. Policies for transitioning to Green Economic Growth are analyzed, with a focus on developing countries and strategic sectors. The paper also delves into specific policy instruments such as environmental labeling, green subsidies, payments for ecosystem services, environmental taxes, and promotion of green energy investments. Additionally, it discusses strategic trade policies and innovation indicators, using China as a case study to illustrate the potential benefits and challenges. The conclusion underscores the necessity of harmonizing economic growth with sustainability, advocating for a model where Green Economic Growth serves as both a driver of economic development and a solution to environmental challenges. This holistic approach is essential to prevent economic regress and ensure a sustainable future for all.

Elevated sea surface temperature and enhanced primary productivity during Ocean Anoxic Event 1d in the eastern Tethys: Calcareous nannofossil evidence from southern Tibet, China

Mid-Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) are characterized by major disturbances to the global carbon cycle and are considered ancient analogs for anthropogenic global warming. Among these events, OAE 1d, occurring around the Albian-Cenomanian boundary, remains understudied in the eastern Tethys region, leaving a critical palaeogeographic gap that hampers a global understanding of its impacts. In this paper, we present a detailed record of calcareous nannofossil assemblages from the lower to middle part of the Lengqingre Formation in the Chaqiela section of Gamba, southern Tibet, China. The study interval contains abundant, moderately to well preserved calcareous nannofossil assemblages, with Watznaueria barnesiae, Discorhabdus ignotus, Biscutum constans, and Zeugrhabdotus erectus as the dominant species constituting >50% of the assemblages. These nannofossil assemblages allow the study interval to be constrained to Upper Cretaceous (UC) Biozones UC0 through UC2, with the Albian-Cenomanian boundary located in the lower part of the Lengqingre Formation, and the middle part assigned to Cenomanian in the study area. As such, the position of OAE 1d in this section is accurately determined. Calculated nutrient and temperature indices based on nannofossil species with preferred ecologies reveal significant palaeoceanographic changes across the OAE 1d. These changes show increased abundance of warm-water taxa (e.g., Rhagodiscus asper and Zeugrhabdotus diplogrammus) and high-productivity taxa (e.g., D. ignotus, B. constans, and Z. erectus), suggesting increased sea surface temperature and enhanced productivity during OAE 1d in the southwestern shelf sea of the eastern Tethys Ocean.

Phylotranscriptomic and ecological analyses reveal the evolution and morphological adaptation of Abies.

Coniferous forests are under severe threat of the rapid anthropogenic climate warming. Abies (firs), the fourth-largest conifer genus, is a keystone component of the boreal and temperate dark-coniferous forests and harbors a remarkably large number of relict taxa. However, the uncertainty of the phylogenetic and biogeographic history of Abies significantly impedes our prediction of future dynamics and efficient conservation of firs. In this study, using 1,533 nuclear genes generated from transcriptome sequencing and a complete sampling of all widely recognized species, we have successfully reconstructed a robust phylogeny of global firs, in which four clades are strongly supported and all intersectional relationships are resolved, although phylogenetic discordance caused mainly by incomplete lineage sorting and hybridization was detected. Molecular dating and ancestral area reconstruction suggest a Northern Hemisphere high-latitude origin of Abies during the Late Cretaceous, but all extant firs diversified during the Miocene to the Pleistocene, and multiple continental and intercontinental dispersals took place in response to the late Neogene climate cooling and orogenic movements. Notably, four critically endangered firs endemic to subtropical mountains of China, including A. beshanzuensis, A. ziyuanensis, A. fanjingshanensis and A. yuanbaoshanensis from east to west, have different origins and evolutionary histories. Moreover, three hotspots of species richness, including western North America, central Japan, and the Hengduan Mountains, were identified in Abies. Elevation and precipitation, particularly precipitation of the coldest quarter, are the most significant environmental factors driving the global distribution pattern of fir species diversity. Some morphological traits are evolutionarily constrained, and those linked to elevational variation (e.g., purple cone) and cold resistance (e.g., pubescent branch and resinous bud) may have contributed to the diversification of global firs. Our study sheds new light on the spatiotemporal evolution of global firs, which will be of great help to forest management and species conservation in a warming world.

Projected changes in extreme hot summer events in Asian monsoon regions

40% of global population, who resides in Asian monsoon region is at high risk from extreme hot summer events, which is expected to increase by 25%/30 years under RCP8.5 scenario. Using Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large-ensemble simulations we assess the relative contribution of external forcings and internal variability on hot extremes over South and East Asia. Climate change projects surface mean temperature to reach 2.0 °C and 5.0 °C by ~2050 and ~2100, respectively, making the region uninhabitable under exposed conditions. Internal variability will partly obscure anthropogenic warming over South and Southeast Asia; however, East Asia will experience a 4–6 fold rise in record breaking hot events in later periods. Nevertheless, beyond 2.35 °C warming internal variability will decrease over South Asia due to weaker albedo feedback on unforced internal variability. Our results contradict the existing hypothesis that warming will increase volatility in weather patterns everywhere, particularly the Asian monsoon regions.

Paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and human impact over the last 400 years based on lipid biomarkers from Lake Höglwörth, Germany

Lipid biomarkers are valuable proxies for reconstructing paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes as well as human impact. However, little attention has been paid on evaluating how the combination of biomarkers can be used to reconstruct various aspects of local paleoenvironmental conditions. This study presents a suite of lipid biomarker records from a sediment core from Lake Höglwörth, southern Germany, covering the past 400 years. Compound-specific hydrogen isotopic compositions (δD) of terrestrial n-alkanes (n-C29-alkane) and n-alkanoic acids (n-C30-acid) indicate minor changes in isotopic composition of precipitation. The δD of n-C22-acid is interpreted to record the isotopic composition of the lake water and evaporative enrichment, which drops after 1700 CE, coinciding with the construction of a mill and the related rerouting of a creek into Lake Höglwörth. The δD of n-C25-alkane is also enriched but decoupled from the reconstructed isotopic composition of precipitation and lake water. Therefore, we suggest that δD of n-C25-alkane reflects the leaf water isotopic composition of Sphagnum, which is present in the catchment and undergoes transpirative enrichment. Both short-chain compounds have become more enriched over the last century, maybe related to increasing temperature associated with anthropogenic climate warming. The faecal biomarkers record the changes in human population, partly related to the history of the local Monastery, the World Wars I and II as well as the intensive farming after the mid-20th century. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) reveal a significant change in combustion activities associated with human activities such as the industrial revolution, biomass burning, and environmental cleanup as well as the implementation of emission standards. Our study demonstrates that the combination of plant wax compounds, faecal biomarkers, and PAHs from lacustrine sediment serves as a valuable tool to reconstruct and distinguish various aspects of paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes including human impacts.

The combination of a microbial and a non-microbial biostimulant increases yield in lettuce (Lactuca sativa) under salt stress conditions by up-regulating cytokinin biosynthesis.

Salinization poses a significant challenge in agriculture, exacerbated by anthropogenic global warming. Biostimulants, derived from living microorganisms or natural extracts, have emerged as valuable tools for conventional and organic agriculture. However, our understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying the effects of biostimulants is very limited, especially in crops under real cultivation conditions. In this study, we adopted an integrative approach to investigate the effectiveness of the combined application of plant growth-promoting bacterium (Bacillus megaterium strain BM08) and a non-microbial biostimulant under control conditions (normal watering) and salt stress. After confirming the yield increase under both conditions, we investigated the molecular mechanisms underlying the observed effect by measuring a number of physiological parameters (i.e., lipid peroxidation, antioxidants, chlorophylls, total phenolics and phytohormone content), as well as RNA sequencing and primary metabolite analyses. Our findings reveal that the combined effect of the microbial and non-microbial biostimulants led to a decrease in the antioxidant response and an up-regulation of genes involved in cytokinin biosynthesis under salt stress conditions. This, in turn, resulted in a higher concentration of the bioactive cytokinin, isopentenyladenosine, in roots and leaves and an increase in γ-aminobutyric acid, a non-proteic amino acid related to abiotic stress responses. In addition, we observed a decrease in malic acid, along with an abscisic acid (ABA)-independent up-regulation of SR-kinases, a family of protein kinases associated with abiotic stress responses. Furthermore, we observed that the single application of the non-microbial biostimulant triggers an ABA-dependent response under salt stress; however, when combined with the microbial biostimulant, it potentiated the mechanisms triggered by the BM08 bacterial strain. This comprehensive investigation shows that the combination of two biostimulants is able to elicit a cytokinin-dependent response that may explain the observed yield increase under salt stress conditions.

Ice Sheet‐Albedo Feedback Estimated From Most Recent Deglaciation

AbstractIce sheet feedbacks are underrepresented in model assessments of climate sensitivity and their magnitudes are still poorly constrained. We combine a recently published record of Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) with existing reconstructions of temperature, atmospheric composition, and sea level to estimate both the magnitude and timescale of the ice sheet‐albedo feedback since the Last Glacial Maximum. This facilitates the first opportunity to quantify this feedback over the most recent deglaciation using a proxy data‐driven approach. We find the ice sheet‐albedo feedback to be amplifying, increasing the total climate feedback parameter by 42% and reaching an equilibrium magnitude of 0.55 Wm−2K−1, with a 66% confidence interval of 0.45–0.63 Wm−2K−1. The timescale to equilibrium is estimated as 3.6 ka (66% confidence: 1.9–5.5 ka). These results provide new evidence for the timescale and magnitude of the amplifying ice sheet‐albedo feedback that will drive anthropogenic warming for millennia to come.

Navigating climate complexity and its control via hyperchaotic dynamics in a 4D Caputo fractional model

This interdisciplinary study critically analyzes current research, establishing a profound connection between sea water, sea ice, sea temperature, and surface temperature through a 4D hyperchaotic Caputo fractional differential equation. Emphasizing the collective impact on climate, focusing on challenges from anthropogenic global warming, the study scrutinizes theoretical aspects, including existence and uniqueness. Two sliding mode controllers manage chaos in this 4D fractional system, assessed amid uncertainties and disruptions. The global stability of these controlled systems is also confirmed, considering both commensurate and non-commensurate 4D fractional order. To demonstrate the intricate chaotic motion within the system, we employ the Lyapunov exponent and Poincare sections. Numerical simulations are conducted by using the predictor-corrector method. The effects of surface temperature on chaotic dynamics are discussed. The crucial role of sea ice reflection in climate stability is highlighted in two scenarios. Correlation graphs, comparing model and observational data using the predictor-corrector method, enhance the proposed 4D hyperchaotic model’s credibility. Subsequently, numerical simulations validate theoretical assertions about the controllers’ influence. These controllers indicate which variable significantly contributes to controlling the chaos.

Towards a Less Habitable Ocean

AbstractOcean warming and associated deoxygenation caused by anthropogenic global warming are impacting marine ecosystems. This article contextualizes and provides perspectives on key insights from a recently published study by Fröb et al. in Earth's Future (2024). The authors employ historical and high‐emission scenario simulations through a state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model to detect abrupt and persistent changes in the viability of marine habitats by leveraging an ecophysiological framework that quantifies how temperature and oxygen jointly limit the distribution of life in the ocean for a number of ecophysiotypes. A changepoint analysis is used to objectively detect shifts in decadal to multi‐decadal mean states in potential marine habitats. They observe a decrease in the ocean volume capable of providing viable habitats for those ecophysiotypes with positive sensitivity to hypoxia. About half of these decreases occur abruptly, thus highlighting potential risks on the capacity of marine organisms to cope with a changing environment.